Proceedings of the tropical fruits in human nutrition and health conference 2008

Horticultural industries are Queensland’s second largest primary producer, with a total gross value of more than $1.9 billion in 2008. Queensland’s diverse geography and climate supports the production of more than 120 horticultural products. With a growing worldwide demand for quality, nutritious food Queensland Primary Industries and Fisheries continues to focus its activities on accelerating growth within the sector. The conference, sponsored by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and DPI&F is the first of its kind to examine the latest knowledge on the health properties of tropical fruits. Organising committee member and DPI&F science leader Dr Roger Stanley said the conference would develop international networks to accelerate research in the area.

Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of plant pest invasions with human-mediated dispersal

Hierarchical Bayesian models can assimilate surveillance and ecological information to estimate both invasion extent and model parameters for invading plant pests spread by people. A reliability analysis framework that can accommodate multiple dispersal modes is developed to estimate human-mediated dispersal parameters for an invasive species. Uncertainty in the observation process is modelled by accounting for local natural spread and population growth within spatial units. Broad scale incursion dynamics are based on a mechanistic gravity model with a Weibull distribution modification to incorporate a local pest build-up phase. The model uses Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations to infer the probability of colonisation times for discrete spatial units and to estimate connectivity parameters between these units. The hierarchical Bayesian model with observational and ecological components is applied to a surveillance dataset for a spiralling whitefly (Aleurodicus dispersus) invasion in Queensland, Australia. The model structure provides a useful application that draws on surveillance data and ecological knowledge that can be used to manage the risk of pest movement.