Using harvest statistics to monitor temporal variation in kangaroo density and harvest rate

Management of the commercial harvest of kangaroos relies on quotas set annually as a proportion of regular estimates of population size. Surveys to generate these estimates are expensive and, in the larger states, logistically difficult; a cheaper alternative is desirable. Rainfall is a disappointingly poor predictor of kangaroo rate of increase in many areas, but harvest statistics (sex ratio, carcass weight, skin size and animals shot per unit time) potentially offer cost-effective indirect monitoring of population abundance (and therefore trend) and status (i.e. under-or overharvest). Furthermore, because harvest data are collected continuously and throughout the harvested areas, they offer the promise of more intensive and more representative coverage of harvest areas than aerial surveys do. To be useful, harvest statistics would need to have a close and known relationship with either population size or harvest rate. We assessed this using longterm (11-22 years) data for three kangaroo species (Macropus rufus, M. giganteus and M. fuliginosus) and common wallaroos (M. robustus) across South Australia, New South Wales and Queensland. Regional variation in kangaroo body size, population composition, shooter efficiency and selectivity required separate analyses in different regions. Two approaches were taken. First, monthly harvest statistics were modelled as a function of a number of explanatory variables, including kangaroo density, harvest rate and rainfall. Second, density and harvest rate were modelled as a function of harvest statistics. Both approaches incorporated a correlated error structure. Many but not all regions had relationships with sufficient precision to be useful for indirect monitoring. However, there was no single relationship that could be applied across an entire state or across species. Combined with rainfall-driven population models and applied at a regional level, these relationships could be used to reduce the frequency of aerial surveys without compromising decisions about harvest management.

Quantitative methods to measure pigmentation variation in farmed Giant Tiger Prawns, Penaeus monodon, and the effects of different harvest methods on cooked colour

Cooked prawn colour is known to be a driver of market price and a visual indicator of product quality for the consumer. Although there is a general understanding that colour variation exists in farmed prawns, there has been no attempt to quantify this variation or identify where this variation is most prevalent. The objectives of this study were threefold: firstly to compare three different quantitative methods to measure prawn colour or pigmentation, two different colorimeters and colour quantification from digital images. Secondly, to quantify the amount of pigmentation variation that exists in farmed prawns within ponds, across ponds and across farms. Lastly, to assess the effects of ice storage or freeze-thawing of raw product prior to cooking. Each method was able to detect quantitative differences in prawn colour, although conversion of image based quantification of prawn colour from RGB to Lab was unreliable. Considerable colour variation was observed between prawns from different ponds and different farms, and this variation potentially affects product value. Different post-harvest methods prior to cooking were also shown to have a profound detrimental effect on prawn colour. Both long periods of ice storage and freeze thawing of raw product were detrimental to prawn colour. However, ice storage immediately after cooking was shown to be beneficial to prawn colour. Results demonstrated that darker prawn colour was preserved by holding harvested prawns alive in chilled seawater, limiting the time between harvesting and cooking, and avoiding long periods of ice storage or freeze thawing of uncooked product.

Variation in liveweight gain of feedlot steers in southern Queensland

The rise in demand by domestic and export markets for a high quality uniform beef carcase has led to more steers being finished in feedlots. However, the profitability of feedlotting is small and economic survival hinges on efficiency (Ryan 1990). Lack of published data prevents conclusions being drawn about the level of efficiency of Australian feedlotting operations but the few studies reported show considerable variation in liveweight performance and carcase characteristics such as fat depth and marbling (Baud et al.) 21st Biennial Conference. 8-12 July, University of Queensland, Brisbane.

Inferential, non-parametric statistics to assess quality of probabilistic forecast systems

Many statistical forecast systems are available to interested users. In order to be useful for decision-making, these systems must be based on evidence of underlying mechanisms. Once causal connections between the mechanism and their statistical manifestation have been firmly established, the forecasts must also provide some quantitative evidence of `quality’. However, the quality of statistical climate forecast systems (forecast quality) is an ill-defined and frequently misunderstood property. Often, providers and users of such forecast systems are unclear about what ‘quality’ entails and how to measure it, leading to confusion and misinformation. Here we present a generic framework to quantify aspects of forecast quality using an inferential approach to calculate nominal significance levels (p-values) that can be obtained either by directly applying non-parametric statistical tests such as Kruskal-Wallis (KW) or Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) or by using Monte-Carlo methods (in the case of forecast skill scores). Once converted to p-values, these forecast quality measures provide a means to objectively evaluate and compare temporal and spatial patterns of forecast quality across datasets and forecast systems. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of providing p-values rather than adopting some arbitrarily chosen significance levels such as p < 0.05 or p < 0.01, which is still common practice. This is illustrated by applying non-parametric tests (such as KW and KS) and skill scoring methods (LEPS and RPSS) to the 5-phase Southern Oscillation Index classification system using historical rainfall data from Australia, The Republic of South Africa and India. The selection of quality measures is solely based on their common use and does not constitute endorsement. We found that non-parametric statistical tests can be adequate proxies for skill measures such as LEPS or RPSS. The framework can be implemented anywhere, regardless of dataset, forecast system or quality measure. Eventually such inferential evidence should be complimented by descriptive statistical methods in order to fully assist in operational risk management.

Measurement of genetic and environmental variation in barley (Hordeum vulgare) grain hardness

In this study, we assessed a broad range of barley breeding lines and commercial varieties by three hardness methods (two particle size methods and one crush resistance method (SKCS—Single-Kernel Characterization System), grown at multiple sites to see if there was variation in barley hardness and if that variation was genetic or environmentally controlled. We also developed near-infrared reflectance (NIR) calibrations for these three hardness methods to ascertain if NIR technology was suitable for rapid screening of breeding lines or specific populations. In addition, we used this data to identify genetic regions that may be associated with hardness. There were significant (p<0.05) genetic effects for the three hardness methods. There were also environmental effects, possibly linked to the effect of protein on hardness, i.e. increasing protein resulted in harder grain. Heritability values were calculated at >85% for all methods. The NIR calibrations, with R2 values of >90%, had Standard Error of Prediction values of 0.90, 72 and 4.0, respectively, for the three hardness methods. These equations were used to predict hardness values of a mapping population which resulted in genetic markers being identified on all chromosomes but chromosomes 2H, 3H, 5H, 6H and 7H had markers with significant LOD scores. The two regions on 5H were on the distal end of both the long and short arms. The region that showed significant LOD score was on the long arm. However, the region on the short arm associated with the hardness (hordoindoline) genes did not have significant LOD scores. The results indicate that barley hardness is influenced by both genotype and environment and that the trait is heritable, which would allow breeders to develop very hard or soft varieties if required. In addition, NIR was shown to be a reliable tool for screening for hardness. While the data set used in this study has a relatively low variation in hardness, the tools developed could be applied to breeding populations that have large variation in barley grain hardness.

Borate protection of softwood from Coptotermes acinaciformis (Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae) damage: Variation in protection thresholds explained

Laboratory and field data reported in the literature are confusing with regard to “adequate” protection thresholds for borate timber preservatives. The confusion is compounded by differences in termite species, timber species and test methodology. Laboratory data indicate a borate retention of 0.5% mass/mass (m/m) boric acid equivalent (BAE) would cause >90% termite mortality and restrict mass loss in test specimens to ≤5%. Field data generally suggest that borate retentions appreciably >0.5% m/m BAE are required. We report two field experiments with varying amounts of untreated feeder material in which Coptotermes acinaciformis (Froggatt) (Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae) responses to borate-treated radiata (Monterey) pine, Pinus radiata D. Don, were measured. The apparently conflicting results between laboratory and field data are explained by the presence or absence of untreated feeder material in the test environment. In the absence of untreated feeder material, wood containing 0.5% BAE provided adequate protection from Coptotermes sp., whereas in the presence of untreated feeder material, increased retentions were required. Furthermore, the retentions required increased with increased amounts of susceptible material present. Some termites, Nasutitermes sp. and Mastotermes darwiniensis Froggatt, for example, are borate-tolerant and borate timber preservatives are not a viable management option with these species. The lack of uniform standards for termite test methodology and assessment criteria for efficacy across the world is recognized as a difficulty with research into the performance of timber preservatives with termites. The many variables in laboratory and field assays make “prescriptive” standards difficult to recommend. The use of “performance” standards to define efficacy criteria (“adequate” protection) is discussed.

Characterization of tree-to-tree variation in morphological, nutritional and medicinal properties of Canarium indicum nuts

As part of a feasibility study of the commercialization potential of C. indicum nuts as Agroforestry Tree Products in Papua New Guinea, preliminary characterization studies have examined the tree-to-tree variation in morphological traits (nut and kernel mass and kernel:nut ratio), as well as nutritional (carbohydrate, fat, protein, sodium, vitamin E) and medicinal traits (anti-oxidant activity, anti-inflammatory activity and phenolic content) of kernels from 18 to 72 trees in a small number of different villages of Papua New Guinea (East New Britain Province). There was continuous variation in these traits indicating opportunities for multiple trait cultivar development targeted at food and pharmaceutical markets. Certain traits, for example anti-inflammatory activity, in which tree-to-tree variation was highly significant, present greater opportunities than others, such as saturated:unsaturated fatty acid ratio. This intraspecific variation was greater within populations than between populations. The data presented has allowed the development of a strategy to domesticate C. indicum for cultivation in homegardens and cocoa-coconut agroforests, using a participatory approach aimed at the production of agroforestry tree products (AFTPs) to empower small-holders and enhance their livelihoods and income.

Temporal variation in arthropod sampling effectiveness: The case for using the beat sheet method in cotton

Predatory insects and spiders are key elements of integrated pest management (IPM) programmes in agricultural crops such as cotton. Management decisions in IPM programmes should to be based on a reliable and efficient method for counting both predators and pests. Knowledge of the temporal constraints that influence sampling is required because arthropod abundance estimates are likely to vary over a growing season and within a day. Few studies have adequately quantified this effect using the beat sheet, a potentially important sampling method. We compared the commonly used methods of suction and visual sampling to the beat sheet, with reference to an absolute cage clamp method for determining the abundance of various arthropod taxa over 5 weeks. There were significantly more entomophagous arthropods recorded using the beat sheet and cage clamp methods than by using suction or visual sampling, and these differences were more pronounced as the plants grew. In a second trial, relative estimates of entomophagous and phytophagous arthropod abundance were made using beat sheet samples collected over a day. Beat sheet estimates of the abundance of only eight of the 43 taxa examined were found to vary significantly over a day. Beat sheet sampling is recommended in further studies of arthropod abundance in cotton, but researchers and pest management advisors should bear in mind the time of season and time of day effects.

Spatial and temporal variation and effects of changes in management in discard rates from the commercial reef line fishery of the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

Discarding in commercially exploited fisheries has received considerable attention in the last decade, though only more recently in Australia. The Reef Line fishery (RLF) of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in Australia is a large-scale multi-sector, multi-species, highly regulated hook and line fishery with the potential for high levels of discarding. We used a range of data sources to estimate discard rates and discard quantities for the two main target groups of the RLF, the coral trout, Plectropomus spp, and the red throat emperor, Lethrinus miniatus, and investigated possible effects on discarding of recent changes in management of the fishery. Fleet-wide estimates of total annual quantities discarded from 1989 to 2003 were 292-622 t and 33-95 t for coral trout and red throat emperor, respectively. Hypothetical scenarios of high-grading after the introduction of a total allowable commercial catch for coral trout resulted in increases in discard quantities up to 3895 t, while no high-grading still meant 421 t were discarded. Increasing the minimum size limit of red throat emperor from 35 to 38 cm also increased discards to an estimated 103 t. We provide spatially and temporally explicit estimates of discarding for the two most important species in the GBR RLF of Australia to demonstrate the importance of accounting for regional variation in quantification of discarding. Effects of management changes on discarding are also highlighted. This study provides a template for exploring discarding levels for other species in the RLF and elsewhere.

A comparison of mark-recapture distance-sampling methods applied to aerial surveys of eastern grey kangaroos

Aerial surveys of kangaroos (Macropus spp.) in Queensland are used to make economically important judgements on the levels of viable commercial harvest. Previous analysis methods for aerial kangaroo surveys have used both mark-recapture methodologies and conventional distance-sampling analyses. Conventional distance sampling has the disadvantage that detection is assumed to be perfect on the transect line, while mark-recapture methods are notoriously sensitive to problems with unmodelled heterogeneity in capture probabilities. We introduce three methodologies for combining together mark-recapture and distance-sampling data, aimed at exploiting the strengths of both methodologies and overcoming the weaknesses. Of these methods, two are based on the assumption of full independence between observers in the mark-recapture component, and this appears to introduce more bias in density estimation than it resolves through allowing uncertain trackline detection. Both of these methods give lower density estimates than conventional distance sampling, indicating a clear failure of the independence assumption. The third method, termed point independence, appears to perform very well, giving credible density estimates and good properties in terms of goodness-of-fit and percentage coefficient of variation. Estimated densities of eastern grey kangaroos range from 21 to 36 individuals km-2, with estimated coefficients of variation between 11% and 14% and estimated trackline detection probabilities primarily between 0.7 and 0.9.

Genetic variation within two sympatric spotted gum eucalypts exceeds between taxa variation

Population substructure and hybridization, among other factors, have the potential to cause erroneous associations in linkage disequilibrium (LD) mapping. Two closely related spotted gum eucalypts, Corymbia variegata and C. henryi (Myrtaceae) occur in sympatry in the east coast of Australia and potentially interbreed. They are morphologically similar but are distinguished as separate species based on capsule and foliage size. To determine whether they hybridize in nature and its implications for LD mapping, we investigated the level of molecular divergence between the two species at two sympatric locations separated by 300 kilometres. Very few individuals of intermediate morphology were identified, despite the two species occurring only metres apart. Analysis of genetic structure using 12 microsatellite loci showed that genetic differentiation between populations of the same species at different locations (FST = 0.07 for both species; p = 0.0001) was significantly higher than that observed between species at each location (mean FST = 0.02 and 0.04 for Cherry tree and Bunyaville respectively; p = 0.0001; all Mann-Whitney U-test p ≤ 0.01). No species-specific alleles or significant allele frequency differences were detected within a site, suggesting recurrent local gene flow between the two species. The lack of significant allele frequency differences implies no population stratification along taxonomic lines. This suggested that there is little concern for cryptic hybridization when sampling from sites of sympatry for LD mapping.

Genotypic variation in seedling root architectural traits and implications for drought adaptation in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)

Root system characteristics are of fundamental importance to soil exploration and below-ground resource acquisition. Root architectural traits determine the in situ space-filling properties of a root system or root architecture. The growth angle of root axes is a principal component of root system architecture that has been strongly associated with acquisition efficiency in many crop species. The aims of this study were to examine the extent of genotypic variability for the growth angle and number of seminal roots in 27 current Australian and 3 CIMMYT wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) genotypes, and to quantify using fractal analysis the root system architecture of a subset of wheat genotypes contrasting in drought tolerance and seminal root characteristics. The growth angle and number of seminal roots showed significant genotypic variation among the wheat genotypes with values ranging from 36 to 56 (degrees) and 3 to 5 (plant-1), respectively. Cluster analysis of wheat genotypes based on similarity in their seminal root characteristics resulted in four groups. The group composition reflected to some extent the genetic background and environmental adaptation of genotypes. Wheat cultivars grown widely in the Mediterranean environments of southern and western Australia generally had wider growth angle and lower number of seminal axes. In contrast, cultivars with superior performance on deep clay soils in the northern cropping region, such as SeriM82, Baxter, Babax, and Dharwar Dry exhibited a narrower angle of seminal axes. The wheat genotypes also showed significant variation in fractal dimension (D). The D values calculated for the individual segments of each root system suggested that, compared to the standard cultivar Hartog, the drought-tolerant genotypes adapted to the northern region tended to distribute relatively more roots in the soil volume directly underneath the plant. These findings suggest that wheat root system architecture is closely linked to the angle of seminal root axes at the seedling stage. The implications of genotypic variation in the seminal root characteristics and fractal dimension for specific adaptation to drought environment types are discussed with emphasis on the possible exploitation of root architectural traits in breeding for improved wheat cultivars for water-limited environments.

Between-tree variation in fruit quality and fruit mineral concentrations of Hass avocados

Inconsistent internal fruit quality in Hass avocados affects consumer confidence. To determine the influence of individual trees on fruit quality, Hass avocado fruit were harvested from adjacent trees of similar external appearance in 3 commercial orchards in 1998 and 1 orchard in 1999. The trees in each orchard were grown with similar commercial practices and in similar soil types. Within each location, there were significant (P<0.05) differences in the mean ripe fruit quality between trees with respect to fruit body rot severity (mainly anthracnose) with and without cold storage, internal disorders severity due to diffuse discolouration and vascular browning (after cold storage), days to ripen, percentage dry matter, and the percentage of the skin area with purple-black colour when ripe. These effects were also noted in the same orchard in 1999. There were significant (P<0.05) differences in fruit flesh calcium, magnesium, potassium, boron and zinc concentrations between trees. Significant (P<0.05) correlations were observed between average fruit mineral concentrations in each tree (particularly calcium, magnesium and potassium) and body rot severity, percentage dry matter and fruit mass. There was little conclusive evidence that characteristics such as the growth of the non-suberised roots or the degree of scion under- or overgrowth was involved in these tree effects; however, differences between trees with respect to other rootstock characteristics may be involved. The inconsistency of the correlations across sites and years suggested that other factors apart from tree influences could also affect the relationship between fruit minerals and fruit quality.

DNA amplification fingerprinting analysis of genetic variation within Fusarium oxysporum f.sp zingiberi

Genetic variation among 29 isolates of Fusarium oxysporum f.sp. zingiberi (Foz) collected from diseased ginger rhizome in production regions throughout Queensland was analysed using DNA amplification fingerprinting (DAF). Eight isolates of other Fusarium species and/or formae speciales were included for comparative analysis. Within the Foz isolates, three haplotypes were identified based on 17 polymorphic bands generated with five primers. Two groups showed very little genetic variation (98.6% similarity), whereas the third single isolate was quite distinct in terms of its molecular profile (77.2% similarity). Genetic similarity among the Fusarium solani, F. oxysporum f.sp. lycopersici and F. oxysporum f.sp. cubense races 1, 3 and 4 isolates compared well with the published literature.

From inferential statistics to climate knowledge

Climate variability and change are risk factors for climate sensitive activities such as agriculture. Managing these risks requires "climate knowledge", i.e. a sound understanding of causes and consequences of climate variability and knowledge of potential management options that are suitable in light of the climatic risks posed. Often such information about prognostic variables (e.g. yield, rainfall, run-off) is provided in probabilistic terms (e.g. via cumulative distribution functions, CDF), whereby the quantitative assessments of these alternative management options is based on such CDFs. Sound statistical approaches are needed in order to assess whether difference between such CDFs are intrinsic features of systems dynamics or chance events (i.e. quantifying evidences against an appropriate null hypothesis). Statistical procedures that rely on such a hypothesis testing framework are referred to as "inferential statistics" in contrast to descriptive statistics (e.g. mean, median, variance of population samples, skill scores). Here we report on the extension of some of the existing inferential techniques that provides more relevant and adequate information for decision making under uncertainty.