Simple software processes and tests improve the reliability and usefulness of a model.

Models are abstractions of reality that have predetermined limits (often not consciously thought through) on what problem domains the models can be used to explore. These limits are determined by the range of observed data used to construct and validate the model. However, it is important to remember that operating the model beyond these limits, one of the reasons for building the model in the first place, potentially brings unwanted behaviour and thus reduces the usefulness of the model. Our experience with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), a farming systems model, has led us to adapt techniques from the disciplines of modelling and software development to create a model development process. This process is simple, easy to follow, and brings a much higher level of stability to the development effort, which then delivers a much more useful model. A major part of the process relies on having a range of detailed model tests (unit, simulation, sensibility, validation) that exercise a model at various levels (sub-model, model and simulation). To underline the usefulness of testing, we examine several case studies where simulated output can be compared with simple relationships. For example, output is compared with crop water use efficiency relationships gleaned from the literature to check that the model reproduces the expected function. Similarly, another case study attempts to reproduce generalised hydrological relationships found in the literature. This paper then describes a simple model development process (using version control, automated testing and differencing tools), that will enhance the reliability and usefulness of a model.

The effect of row configuration on yield reliability in grain sorghum: II. Modelling the effects of row configuration

In recent years many sorghum producers in the more marginal (<600 mm annual rainfall) cropping areas of Qld and northern NSW have utilised skip row configurations in an attempt to improve yield reliability and reduce sorghum production risk. But will this work in the long run? What are the trade-offs between productivity and risk of crop failure? This paper describes a modelling and simulation approach to study the long-term effects of skip row configurations. Detailed measurements of light interception and water extraction from sorghum crops grown in solid, single and double skip row configurations were collected from three on-farm participatory research trials established in southern Qld and northern NSW. These measurements resulted in changes to the model that accounted for the elliptical water uptake pattern below the crop row and reduced total light interception associated with the leaf area reduction of the skip configuration. Following validation of the model, long-term simulation runs using historical weather data were used to determine the value of skip row sorghum production as a means of maintaining yield reliability in the dryland cropping regions of southern Qld and northern NSW.

National Mungbean Improvement Program

Develop new, high yielding, disease resistant mungbean varieties that will increase crop reliability and grower confidence in the northern region.