34 resultados para Real options (Finance)

em eResearch Archive - Queensland Department of Agriculture


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The financial health of beef cattle enterprises in northern Australia has declined markedly over the last decade due to an escalation in production and marketing costs and a real decline in beef prices. Historically, gains in animal productivity have offset the effect of declining terms of trade on farm incomes. This raises the question of whether future productivity improvements can remain a key path for lifting enterprise profitability sufficient to ensure that the industry remains economically viable over the longer term. The key objective of this study was to assess the production and financial implications for north Australian beef enterprises of a range of technology interventions (development scenarios), including genetic gain in cattle, nutrient supplementation, and alteration of the feed base through introduced pastures and forage crops, across a variety of natural environments. To achieve this objective a beef systems model was developed that is capable of simulating livestock production at the enterprise level, including reproduction, growth and mortality, based on energy and protein supply from natural C4 pastures that are subject to high inter-annual climate variability. Comparisons between simulation outputs and enterprise performance data in three case study regions suggested that the simulation model (the Northern Australia Beef Systems Analyser) can adequately represent the performance beef cattle enterprises in northern Australia. Testing of a range of development scenarios suggested that the application of individual technologies can substantially lift productivity and profitability, especially where the entire feedbase was altered through legume augmentation. The simultaneous implementation of multiple technologies that provide benefits to different aspects of animal productivity resulted in the greatest increases in cattle productivity and enterprise profitability, with projected weaning rates increasing by 25%, liveweight gain by 40% and net profit by 150% above current baseline levels, although gains of this magnitude might not necessarily be realised in practice. While there were slight increases in total methane output from these development scenarios, the methane emissions per kg of beef produced were reduced by 20% in scenarios with higher productivity gain. Combinations of technologies or innovative practices applied in a systematic and integrated fashion thus offer scope for providing the productivity and profitability gains necessary to maintain viable beef enterprises in northern Australia into the future.

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Groundnut is one of the principal oilseeds in the world. It is cultivated on 24.8 million ha with a total production of 32.8 million t and an average productivity of 1.32 t ha-'. Developing countries account for 96.9% of the world groundnut area and 93.8% of total production. Production is concentrated in Asia (56.8% area and 66.5% production of the world) and Africa (38.0% area and 24.7% production). The groundnut productivity in Africa is only 0.86 t ha-' compared with 1.55 t hx1 of Asia. The world groundnut economy-facts, trends and outlook are desaibed in detail by Freeman et al., 1999. Briefly, in medium-term (i.e. up to 2010), 'groundnut production and consumption is likely to shift increasingly to developing countries; production will grow in all regions but most rapidly in Asia, slowly in sub-Saharan Africa and decline in Latin America; and utilizationwill continue to shift away from groundnut oil toward groundnut meal, specially confectionery products'.

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The potential for large-scale use of a sensitive real time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay was evaluated for the detection of Tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV) in single and bulked leaf samples by comparing its sensitivity with that of DAS-ELISA. Using total RNA extracted with RNeasy® or leaf soak methods, real time RT-PCR detected TSWV in all infected samples collected from 16 horticultural crop species (including flowers, herbs and vegetables), two arable crop species, and four weed species by both assays. In samples in which DAS-ELISA had previously detected TSWV, real time RT-PCR was effective at detecting it in leaf tissues of all 22 plant species tested at a wide range of concentrations. Bulk samples required more robust and extensive extraction methods with real time RT-PCR, but it generally detected one infected sample in 1000 uninfected ones. By contrast, ELISA was less sensitive when used to test bulked samples, once detecting up to 1 infected in 800 samples with pepper but never detecting more than 1 infected in 200 samples in tomato and lettuce. It was also less reliable than real time RT-PCR when used to test samples from parts of the leaf where the virus concentration was low. The genetic variability among Australian isolates of TSWV was small. Direct sequencing of a 587 bp region of the nucleoprotein gene (S RNA) of 29 isolates from diverse crops and geographical locations yielded a maximum of only 4.3% nucleotide sequence difference. Phylogenetic analysis revealed no obvious groupings of isolates according to geographic origin or host species. TSWV isolates, that break TSWV resistance genes in tomato or pepper did not differ significantly in the N gene region studied, indicating that a different region of the virus genome is responsible for this trait.

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Equid herpesvirus 1 (EHV1) is a major disease of equids worldwide causing considerable losses to the horse industry. A variety of techniques, including PCR have been used to diagnose EHV1. Some of these PCRs were used in combination with other techniques such as restriction enzyme analysis (REA) or hybridisation, making them cumbersome for routine diagnostic testing and increasing the chances of cross-contamination. Furthermore, they involve the use of suspected carcinogens such as ethidium bromide and ultraviolet light. In this paper, we describe a real-time PCR, which uses minor groove-binding probe (MGB) technology for the diagnosis of EHV1. This technique does not require post-PCR manipulations thereby reducing the risk of cross-contamination. Most importantly, the technique is specific; it was able to differentiate EHV1 from the closely related member of the Alphaherpesvirinae, equid herpesvirus 4 (EHV4). It was not reactive with common opportunistic pathogens such as Escherichia coli, Klebsiella oxytoca, Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Enterobacter agglomerans often involved in abortion. Similarly, it did not react with equine pathogens such as Streptococcus equi, Streptococcus equisimilis, Streptococcus zooepidemicus, Taylorella equigenitalis and Rhodococcus equi, which also cause abortion. The results obtained with this technique agreed with results from published PCR methods. The assay was sensitive enough to detect EHV1 sequences in paraffin-embedded tissues and clinical samples. When compared to virus isolation, the test was more sensitive. This test will be useful for the routine diagnosis of EHV1 based on its specificity, sensitivity, ease of performance and rapidity.

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A multiplex real-time PCR was designed to detect and differentiate equid herpesvirus 1 (EHV-1) and equid herpesvirus 4 (EHV-4). The PCR targets the glycoprotein B gene of EHV-1 and EHV-4. Primers and probes were specific to each equine herpesvirus type and can be used in monoplex or multiplex PCRs, allowing the differentiation of these two closely related members of the Alphaherpesvirinae. The two probes were minor-groove binding probes (MGB?) labelled with 6-carboxy-fluorescein (FAM?) and VIC® for detection of EHV-1 and EHV-4, respectively. Ten EHV-1 isolates, six EHV-1 positive clinical samples, one EHV-1 reference strain (EHV-1.438/77), three EHV-4 positive clinical samples, two EHV-4 isolates and one EHV-4 reference strain (EHV-4 405/76) were included in this study. EHV-1 isolates, clinical samples and the reference strain reacted in the EHV-1 real-time PCR but not in the EHV-4 real-time PCR and similarly EHV-4 clinical samples, isolates and the reference strain were positive in the EHV-4 real-time PCR but not in the EHV-1 real-time PCR. Other herpesviruses, such as EHV-2, EHV-3 and EHV-5 were all negative when tested using the multiplex real-time PCR. When bacterial pathogens and opportunistic pathogens were tested in the multiplex real-time PCR they did not react with either system. The multiplex PCR was shown to be sensitive and specific and is a useful tool for detection and differentiation of EHV-1 and EHV-4 in a single reaction. A comprehensive equine herpesvirus disease investigation procedure used in our laboratory is also outlined. This procedure describes the combination of alphaherpesvirus multiplex real-time PCR along with existing gel-based PCRs described by other authors.

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Weedy Sporobolus grasses have low palatability for livestock, with infestations reducing land condition and pastoral productivity. Control and containment options are available, but the cost of weed control is high relative to the extra return from livestock, thus, limiting private investment. This paper outlines a process for analysing the economic consequences of alternative management options for weedy Sporobolus grasses. This process is applicable to other weeds and other pastoral degradation or development issues. Using a case study property, three scenarios were developed. Each scenario compared two alternative management options and was analysed using discounted cash flow analysis. Two of the scenarios were based on infested properties and one scenario was based on a currently uninfested property but highly likely to become infested without active containment measures preventing weed seed transport and seedling establishment. The analysis highlighted why particular weedy Sporobolus grass management options may not be financially feasible for the landholder with the infestation. However, at the regional scale, the management options may be highly worthwhile due to a reduction in weed seed movement and new weed invasions. Therefore, to encourage investment by landholders in weedy Sporobolus grass management the investment of public money on behalf of landholders with non-infested properties should be considered.

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The further development of Taqman quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) assays for the absolute quantitation of Marek's disease virus serotype 1 (MDV1) and Herpesvirus of turkeys (HVT) viruses is described and the sensitivity and reproducibility of each assay reported. Using plasmid DNA copies, the lower limit of detection was determined to be 5 copies for the MDV1 assay and 75 copies for the HVT assay. Both assays were found to be highly reproducible for Ct values and calculated copy numbers with mean intra- and inter-assay coefficients of variation being less than 5% for Ct and 20% for calculated copy number. The genome copy number of MDV1 and HVT viruses was quantified in PBL and feather tips from experimentally infected chickens, and field poultry dust samples. Parallelism was demonstrated between the plasmid-based standard curves, and standard curves derived from infected spleen material containing both viral and host DNA, allowing the latter to be used for absolute quantification. These methods should prove useful for the reliable differentiation and absolute quantitation of MDV1 and HVT viruses in a wide range of samples.

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The emerging carbon economy will have a major impact on grazing businesses because of significant livestock methane and land-use change emissions. Livestock methane emissions alone account for similar to 11% of Australia's reported greenhouse gas emissions. Grazing businesses need to develop an understanding of their greenhouse gas impact and be able to assess the impact of alternative management options. This paper attempts to generate a greenhouse gas budget for two scenarios using a spread sheet model. The first scenario was based on one land-type '20-year-old brigalow regrowth' in the brigalow bioregion of southern-central Queensland. The 50 year analysis demonstrated the substantially different greenhouse gas outcomes and livestock carrying capacity for three alternative regrowth management options: retain regrowth (sequester 71.5 t carbon dioxide equivalents per hectare, CO2-e/ha), clear all regrowth (emit 42.8 t CO2-e/ha) and clear regrowth strips (emit 5.8 t CO2-e/ha). The second scenario was based on a 'remnant eucalypt savanna-woodland' land type in the Einasleigh Uplands bioregion of north Queensland. The four alternative vegetation management options were: retain current woodland structure (emit 7.4 t CO2-e/ha), allow woodland to thicken increasing tree basal area (sequester 20.7 t CO2-e/ha), thin trees less than 10 cm diameter (emit 8.9 t CO2-e/ha), and thin trees <20 cm diameter (emit 12.4 t CO2-e/ha). Significant assumptions were required to complete the budgets due to gaps in current knowledge on the response of woody vegetation, soil carbon and non-CO2 soil emissions to management options and land-type at the property scale. The analyses indicate that there is scope for grazing businesses to choose alternative management options to influence their greenhouse gas budget. However, a key assumption is that accumulation of carbon or avoidance of emissions somewhere on a grazing business (e.g. in woody vegetation or soil) will be recognised as an offset for emissions elsewhere in the business (e.g. livestock methane). This issue will be a challenge for livestock industries and policy makers to work through in the coming years.

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Camels (Camelus dromedarius) were introduced into Australia from the 1840s to the early 1900s for transport and hauling cargo in arid regions. Feral populations remained small until the 1930s when many were released after they were superseded for transport by trucks and rail. Although camels have a relatively slow population growth (<10% per annum), the population has not reached carrying capacity and therefore, requires control to reduce the increasing impacts on central Australia. The model developed for the Northern Territory suggested that currently there are insufficient numbers being removed. The model also investigated which control options would have greatest impacts and found harvesting to be most important. The extent to which commercial harvesting can feasibly reduce camel populations requires further analysis. Due to the wide dispersal of camels in Australia, fertility control, even if technically feasible, will not target adults, the most important age class of the population. Habitat preferences were also investigated in the model but more validation is required as the population is still under range expansion. Immediate action is suggested to alleviate future costs as camel populations and their impacts rise.

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Steer liveweight gains were measured in an extensive grazing study conducted in a Heteropogon contortus (black speargrass) pasture in central Queensland between 1988 and 2001. Treatments included a range of stocking rates in native pastures, legume-oversown native pasture and animal diet supplement/spring-burning pastures. Seasonal rainfall throughout this study was below the long-term mean. Mean annual pasture utilisation ranged from 13 to 61%. Annual liveweight gains per head in native pasture were highly variable among years and ranged from a low of 43 kg/steer at 2 ha/steer to a high of 182 kg/steer at 8 ha/steer. Annual liveweight gains were consistently highest at light stocking and decreased with increasing stocking rate. Annual liveweight gain per hectare increased linearly with stocking rate. These stocking rate trends were also evident in legume-oversown pastures although both the intercept and slope of the regressions for legume-oversown pastures were higher than that for native pasture. The highest annual liveweight gain for legume-oversown pasture was 221 kg/steer at 4 ha/steer. After 13 years, annual liveweight gain per unit area occurred at the heaviest stocking rate despite deleterious changes in the pasture. Across all years, the annual liveweight advantage for legume-oversown pastures was 37 kg/steer. Compared with native pasture, changes in annual liveweight gain with burning were variable. It was concluded that cattle productivity is sustainable when stocking rates are maintained at 4 ha/steer or lighter (equivalent to a utilisation rate around 30%). Although steer liveweight gain occurred at all stocking rates and economic returns were highest at heaviest stocking rates, stocking rates heavier than 4 ha/steer are unsustainable because of their long-term impact on pasture productivity.

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The diet selected in autumn by steers fistulated at the oesophageous was studied in a subset of treatments in an extensive grazing study conducted in a Heteropogon contortus pasture in central Queensland between 1988 and 2001. These treatments were a factorial array of three stocking rates (4, 3 and 2 ha/steer) and three pasture types (native pasture, legume-oversown native pasture and animal diet supplement/spring-burning native pasture). Seasonal rainfall throughout this study was below the long-term mean and mean annual pasture utilisation ranged from 30 to 61%. Steers consistently selected H. contortus with levels decreasing from 47 to 18% of the diet as stocking rate increased from 4 ha/steer to 2 ha/steer. Stylosanthes scabra cv. Seca was always selected in legume-oversown pastures with diet composition varying from 35 to 66% despite its plant density increasing from 7 to 65 plants/m(2) and pasture composition from 20 to 50%. Steers also selected a diet containing Chrysopogon fallax, forbs and sedges in higher proportions than they were present in the pasture. Greater availability of the intermediate grasses Chloris divaricata and Eragrostis spp. was associated with increased stocking rates. Bothriochloa bladhii was seldom selected in the diet, especially when other palatable species were present in the pasture, despite B. bladhii often being the major contributor to total pasture yield. It was concluded that a stocking rate of 4 ha/steer will maintain the availability of H. contortus in the pasture.

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The dynamics of Heteropogon contortus and Stylosanthes scabra cv. Seca populations were studied in a subset of treatments in an extensive grazing study conducted in central Queensland between 1988 and 2001. These treatments were 4 stocking rates in native pasture and 2 of these stocking rates in legume oversown and supplement/spring burning treatments. For the 1999-2000 summer, population data for H. contortus in 5 of these native pasture and supplement/burning treatments were compared with those for an additional burnt treatment. Seasonal rainfall throughout this study was below the long-term mean and mean annual pasture utilisation ranged from 24 to 61%. Increasing stocking rate from 5 to 2 ha/steer in native pasture reduced H. contortus plant density. Increasing stocking rate reduced seedling recruitment as a result of its effect on soil seedbanks. Seedling recruitment was the major determinant of change in plant density, although some individual H. contortus plants did survive throughout the study. Burning in spring 1999, particularly at light stocking rate, promoted seedling recruitment above that in both unburnt native and legume oversown pasture and resulted in increased H. contortus plant density. In the legume oversown treatments, S. scabra cv. Seca density increased rapidly from 15 plants/m2 in 1988 to 140 plants/m2 in 2001 following a lag phase between 1988 and 1993. This increased S. scabra density was associated with an eventual decline in H. contortus plant density through reduced seedling recruitment. It was concluded that H. contortus population density is sustainable at stocking rates of 4 and 5 ha/steer (30% pasture utilisation) and that spring burning at light stocking rate can promote H. contortus populations. Increasing densities of S. scabra need to be managed to prevent its dominance.

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The Old World screwworm fly (OWS), Chrysomya bezziana Villeneuve (Diptera: Calliphoridae), is a myiasis-causing blowfly of major concern for both animals and humans. Surveillance traps are used in several countries for early detection of incursions and to monitor control strategies. Examination of surveillance trap catches is time-consuming and is complicated by the presence of morphologically similar flies that are difficult to differentiate from Ch. bezziana, especially when the condition of specimens is poor. A molecular-based method to confirm or refute the presence of Ch. bezziana in trap catches would greatly simplify monitoring programmes. A species-specific real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay was designed to target the ribosomal DNA internal transcribed spacer 1 (rDNA ITS1) of Ch. bezziana. The assay uses both species-specific primers and an OWS-specific Taqman MGB probe. Specificity was confirmed against morphologically similar and related Chrysomya and Cochliomyia species. An optimal extraction protocol was developed to process trap catches of up to 1000 flies and the assay is sensitive enough to detect one Ch. bezziana in a sample of 1000 non-target species. Blind testing of 29 trap catches from Australia and Malaysia detected Ch. bezziana with 100% accuracy. The probability of detecting OWS in a trap catch of 50 000 flies when the OWS population prevalence is low (one in 1000 flies) is 63.6% for one extraction. For three extractions (3000 flies), the probability of detection increases to 95.5%. The real-time PCR assay, used in conjunction with morphology, will greatly increase screening capabilities in surveillance areas where OWS prevalence is low.

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Point sources of wastewater pollution, including effluent from municipal sewage treatment plants and intensive livestock and processing industries, can contribute significantly to the degradation of receiving waters (Chambers et al. 1997; Productivity Commission 2004). This has led to increasingly stringent local wastewater discharge quotas (particularly regarding Nitrogen, Phosphorous and suspended solids), and many municipal authorities and industry managers are now faced with upgrading their existing treatment facilities in order to comply. However, with high construction, energy and maintenance expenses and increasing labour costs, traditional wastewater treatment systems are becoming an escalating financial burden for the communities and industries that operate them. This report was generated, in the first instance, for the Burdekin Shire Council to provide information on design aspects and parameters critical for developing duckweed-based wastewater treatment (DWT) in the Burdekin region. However, the information will be relevant to a range of wastewater sources throughout Queensland. This information has been collated from published literature and both overseas and local studies of pilot and full-scale DWT systems. This report also considers options to generate revenue from duckweed production (a significant feature of DWT), and provides specifications and component cost information (current at the time of publication) for a large-scale demonstration of an integrated DWT and fish production system.

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There are many potential bioremediation approaches that may be suitable for prawn farms in Queensland. Although most share generally accepted bioremediation principles, advocacy for different methods tends to vary widely. This diversity of approach is particularly driven by the availability and knowledge of functional species at different localities around the world. In Australia, little is known about the abilities of many native species in this regard, and translocation and biosecurity issues prevent the use of exotic species that have shown potential in other countries. Species selected must be tolerant of eutrophic conditions and ecological shifts, because prawn pond nutrient levels and pathways can vary with different assemblages of autotrophic and heterotrophic organisms. Generally, they would be included in a constructed ecosystem because of their functional contributions to nutrient cycling and uptake, and to create nutrient sinks in forms of harvestable biomass. Wide salinity, temperature and water quality tolerances are also valuable attributes for selected species due to the sometimes-pronounced effects of environmental extremes, and to provide over-wintering options and adequate safety margins in avoiding mass mortalities. To practically achieve these bioremediation polycultures on a large scale, and in concert with the operations of a prawn farm, methods involving seed production, stock management, and a range of other farm engineering and product handling systems need to be reliably achievable and economically viable. Research funding provided by the Queensland Government through the Aquaculture Industry Development Initiative (AIDI) 2002-04 has enabled a number of technical studies into biological systems to treat prawn farm effluent for recirculation and improved environmental sustainability. AIDI bioremediation research in southern Queensland was based at the Bribie Island Aquaculture Research Centre (BIARC), and was conducted in conjunction with AIDI genetics and selection research, and a Natural Heritage Trust (NHT) funded program (Coast and Clean Seas Project No.717757). This report compilation provides a summary of some of the work conducted within these programs.