A new data source for fisheries resource assessment: genetic estimates of the effective number of spawners. Final Report to the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation.

The development of innovative methods of stock assessment is a priority for State and Commonwealth fisheries agencies. It is driven by the need to facilitate sustainable exploitation of naturally occurring fisheries resources for the current and future economic, social and environmental well being of Australia. This project was initiated in this context and took advantage of considerable recent achievements in genomics that are shaping our comprehension of the DNA of humans and animals. The basic idea behind this project was that genetic estimates of effective population size, which can be made from empirical measurements of genetic drift, were equivalent to estimates of the successful number of spawners that is an important parameter in process of fisheries stock assessment. The broad objectives of this study were to 1. Critically evaluate a variety of mathematical methods of calculating effective spawner numbers (Ne) by a. conducting comprehensive computer simulations, and by b. analysis of empirical data collected from the Moreton Bay population of tiger prawns (P. esculentus). 2. Lay the groundwork for the application of the technology in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). 3. Produce software for the calculation of Ne, and to make it widely available. The project pulled together a range of mathematical models for estimating current effective population size from diverse sources. Some of them had been recently implemented with the latest statistical methods (eg. Bayesian framework Berthier, Beaumont et al. 2002), while others had lower profiles (eg. Pudovkin, Zaykin et al. 1996; Rousset and Raymond 1995). Computer code and later software with a user-friendly interface (NeEstimator) was produced to implement the methods. This was used as a basis for simulation experiments to evaluate the performance of the methods with an individual-based model of a prawn population. Following the guidelines suggested by computer simulations, the tiger prawn population in Moreton Bay (south-east Queensland) was sampled for genetic analysis with eight microsatellite loci in three successive spring spawning seasons in 2001, 2002 and 2003. As predicted by the simulations, the estimates had non-infinite upper confidence limits, which is a major achievement for the application of the method to a naturally-occurring, short generation, highly fecund invertebrate species. The genetic estimate of the number of successful spawners was around 1000 individuals in two consecutive years. This contrasts with about 500,000 prawns participating in spawning. It is not possible to distinguish successful from non-successful spawners so we suggest a high level of protection for the entire spawning population. We interpret the difference in numbers between successful and non-successful spawners as a large variation in the number of offspring per family that survive – a large number of families have no surviving offspring, while a few have a large number. We explored various ways in which Ne can be useful in fisheries management. It can be a surrogate for spawning population size, assuming the ratio between Ne and spawning population size has been previously calculated for that species. Alternatively, it can be a surrogate for recruitment, again assuming that the ratio between Ne and recruitment has been previously determined. The number of species that can be analysed in this way, however, is likely to be small because of species-specific life history requirements that need to be satisfied for accuracy. The most universal approach would be to integrate Ne with spawning stock-recruitment models, so that these models are more accurate when applied to fisheries populations. A pathway to achieve this was established in this project, which we predict will significantly improve fisheries sustainability in the future. Regardless of the success of integrating Ne into spawning stock-recruitment models, Ne could be used as a fisheries monitoring tool. Declines in spawning stock size or increases in natural or harvest mortality would be reflected by a decline in Ne. This would be good for data-poor fisheries and provides fishery independent information, however, we suggest a species-by-species approach. Some species may be too numerous or experiencing too much migration for the method to work. During the project two important theoretical studies of the simultaneous estimation of effective population size and migration were published (Vitalis and Couvet 2001b; Wang and Whitlock 2003). These methods, combined with collection of preliminary genetic data from the tiger prawn population in southern Gulf of Carpentaria population and a computer simulation study that evaluated the effect of differing reproductive strategies on genetic estimates, suggest that this technology could make an important contribution to the stock assessment process in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). Advances in the genomics world are rapid and already a cheaper, more reliable substitute for microsatellite loci in this technology is available. Digital data from single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are likely to super cede ‘analogue’ microsatellite data, making it cheaper and easier to apply the method to species with large population sizes.

Deviant near-infrared spectra identifies Corymbia hybrids

The study examined the potential of Near Infrared Reflectance (NIR) spectroscopy for field diagnosis of hybrids between Corymbia (formerly Eucalyptus) species. NIR profiles were generated by scanning foliage from a total of 383 hybrid and 533 parental seedlings grown in a common garden and partial least squares discriminant analysis was used to test three-way model power to assign individuals to their appropriate taxon; either a parental or F1 hybrid class. Using the optimised conditions, fresh foliage from eight-month-old seedlings and a handheld NIR instrument (950–1800 nm), the mean assignment rates for the three hybrid groups ranged from 76% to 90%. Hybrid-parent contrast of NIR spectra deviated more so than parent–parent contrast. The F1 taxon assignment rates were usually higher than those for parents at 100% and 72%, respectively. Hybrid resolution was even greater for 2nd generation backcross hybrids. Similar to studies of morphology, taxon assignments tended to be more accurate for hybrid groups in which the parental taxa were more divergent. The practical application of this technique for hybrid diagnosis of seedlings in the nursery will require careful attention to control environmental factors because seedling age and storage effects influenced the ability of NIR to identify hybrids. The technique may also necessitate the generation of comparable reference populations, although exclusions approaches to analysis may circumvent the need for reference populations. The application of NIR in field diagnosis will be further complicated by the need to generate global models across environments but such models have been obtained for reliable prediction of chemistries in other situations.

Genetic control of flowering in spotted gum, Corymbia citriodora subsp. variegata and C. maculata

Genetically controlled asynchrony in anthesis is an effective barrier to gene flow between planted and native forests. We investigated the degree of genetically controlled variation in the timing of key floral developmental stages in a major plantation species in subtropical Australia, Corymbia citriodora subsp. variegata K.D. Hill and L.A.S Johnson, and its relative C. maculata K.D. Hill and L.A.S. Johnson. Flowering observations were made in a common garden planting at Bonalbo in northern New South Wales in spring on 1855 trees from eight regions over three consecutive years, and monthly on a subset of 208 trees for 12 months. Peak anthesis time was stable over years and observations from translocated trees tended to be congruent with the observations in native stands, suggesting strong genetic control of anthesis time. A cluster of early flowering provenances was identified from the north-east of the Great Dividing Range. The recognition of a distinct flowering race from this region accorded well with earlier evidence of adaptive differentiation of populations from this region and geographically-structured genetic groupings in C. citriodora subsp. variegata. The early flowering northern race was more fecund, probably associated with its disease tolerance and greater vigour. Bud abundance fluctuated extensively at the regional level across 3 years suggesting bud abundance was more environmentally labile than timing of anthesis. Overall the level of flowering in the planted stand (age 12 years) was low (8–12% of assessed trees with open flowers), and was far lower than in nearby native stands. Low levels of flowering and asynchrony in peak anthesis between flowering races of C. citriodora subsp. variegata may partially mitigate a high likelihood of gene flow where the northern race is planted in the south of the species range neighbouring native stands

Polyphenolic contents and the effects of methanol extracts from mango varieties on breast cancer cells

Bioactivities of peel and flesh extracts of 3 genetically diverse mango (Mangifera indica L.) varieties were studied. Nam Doc Mai peel extracts, containing the largest amounts of polyphenols, were associated with an effect on MCF-7 viable cell numbers with an IC50 (dose required for 50% inhibition of cell viability) of 56 μg/mL and significantly (p<0.01) induced cell death in MDA-MB-231 cells, compared with other varieties. Hydrophilic fractions of Nam Doc Mai peel extracts had the highest bioactivity values against both MCF-7 and MDA-MB-231 cells. Soluble polyphenols were present in the largest amounts in most hydrophilic fractions. The Nam Doc Mai mango variety contains high levels of fruit peel bioactivity, which appears to be related to the nature of the polyphenol composition.