Climate information needs of Gascoyne-Murchison pastoralists: a representative study of the Western Australian grazing industry

The Gascoyne-Murchison region of Western Australia experiences an arid to semi-arid climate with a highly variable temporal and spatial rainfall distribution. The region has around 39.2 million hectares available for pastoral lease and supports predominantly catle and sheep grazing leases. In recent years a number of climate forecasting systems have been available offering rainfall probabilities with different lead times and a forecast period; however, the extent to which these systems are capable of fulfilling the requirements of the local pastoralists is still ambiguous. Issues can range from ensuring forecasts are issued with sufficient lead time to enable key planning or decisions to be revoked or altered, to ensuring forecast language is simple and clear, to negate possible misunderstandings in interpretation. A climate research project sought to provide an objective method to determine which available forecasting systems had the greatest forecasting skill at times of the year relevant to local property management. To aid this climate research project, the study reported here was undertaken with an overall objective of exploring local pastoralists' climate information needs. We also explored how well they understand common climate forecast terms such as 'mean', median' and 'probability', and how they interpret and apply forecast information to decisions. A stratified, proportional random sampling was used for the purpose of deriving the representative sample based on rainfall-enterprise combinations. In order to provide more time for decision-making than existing operational forecasts that are issued with zero lead time, pastoralists requested that forecasts be issued for May-July and January-March with lead times counting down from 4 to 0 months. We found forecasts of between 20 and 50 mm break-of-season or follow-up rainfall were likely to influence decisions. Eighty percent of pastoralists demonstrated in a test question that they had a poor technical understanding of how to interpret the standard wording of a probabilistic median rainfall forecast. this is worthy of further research to investigate whether inappropriate management decisions are being made because the forecasts are being misunderstood. We found more than half the respondents regularly access and use weather and climate forecasts or outlook information from a range of sources and almost three-quarters considered climate information or tools useful, with preferred methods for accessing this information by email, faxback service, internet and the Department of Agriculture Western Australia's Pastoral Memo. Despite differences in enterprise types and rainfall seasonality across the region we found seasonal climate forecasting needs were relatively consistent. It became clear that providing basic training and working with pastoralists to help them understand regional climatic drivers, climate terminology and jargon, and the best ways to apply the forecasts to enhance decision-making are important to improve their use of information. Consideration could also be given to engaging a range of producers to write the climate forecasts themselves in the language they use and understand, in consultation with the scientists who prepare the forecasts.

Variable growth rates of the tropical estuarine fish barramundi Lates calcarifer (Bloch) under different freshwater flow conditions

Relationships between freshwater flows and growth rates of the opportunistic predatory finfish barramundi Lates calcarifer in a dry tropical estuary were examined using data from a long-term tag-recapture programme. Lagged effects were not investigated. After accounting for length at release, time at liberty and seasonal variation (e.g. winter, spring, summer and autumn), growth rates were significantly and positively related to fresh water flowing to the estuary. Effects were present at relatively low levels of freshwater flow (i.e. 2.15 m3 s-1, the 5th percentile of the mean flow rate experienced by fish in the study during time at liberty). The analysis, although correlative, provides quantitative evidence to support the hypothesis that freshwater flows are important in driving the productivity of estuaries and can improve growth of species high in the trophic chain.

A comparison of plotless density estimators using Monte Carlo simulation on totally enumerated field data sets

Background: Plotless density estimators are those that are based on distance measures rather than counts per unit area (quadrats or plots) to estimate the density of some usually stationary event, e.g. burrow openings, damage to plant stems, etc. These estimators typically use distance measures between events and from random points to events to derive an estimate of density. The error and bias of these estimators for the various spatial patterns found in nature have been examined using simulated populations only. In this study we investigated eight plotless density estimators to determine which were robust across a wide range of data sets from fully mapped field sites. They covered a wide range of situations including animal damage to rice and corn, nest locations, active rodent burrows and distribution of plants. Monte Carlo simulations were applied to sample the data sets, and in all cases the error of the estimate (measured as relative root mean square error) was reduced with increasing sample size. The method of calculation and ease of use in the field were also used to judge the usefulness of the estimator. Estimators were evaluated in their original published forms, although the variable area transect (VAT) and ordered distance methods have been the subjects of optimization studies. Results: An estimator that was a compound of three basic distance estimators was found to be robust across all spatial patterns for sample sizes of 25 or greater. The same field methodology can be used either with the basic distance formula or the formula used with the Kendall-Moran estimator in which case a reduction in error may be gained for sample sizes less than 25, however, there is no improvement for larger sample sizes. The variable area transect (VAT) method performed moderately well, is easy to use in the field, and its calculations easy to undertake. Conclusion: Plotless density estimators can provide an estimate of density in situations where it would not be practical to layout a plot or quadrat and can in many cases reduce the workload in the field.

An identification tool for the Australian weedy Sporobolus species based on random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) profiles

Based on morphological features alone, there is considerable difficulty in identifying the 5 most economically damaging weed species of Sporobolus [viz. S. pyramidalis P. Beauv., S. natalensis (Steud.) Dur and Schinz, S. fertilis (Steud.) Clayton, S. africanus (Poir.) Robyns and Tourney, and S. jacquemontii Kunth.] found in Australia. A polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) technique was used to create a series of genetic markers that could positively identify the 5 major weeds from the other less damaging weedy and native Sporobolus species. In the initial RAPD profiling experiment, using arbitrarily selected primers and involving 12 species of Sporobolus, 12 genetic markers were found that, when used in combination, could consistently identify the 5 weedy species from all others. Of these 12 markers, the most diagnostic were UBC51490 for S. pyramidalis and S. natalensis; UBC43310.2000.2100 for S. fertilis and S. africanus; and ORA20850 and UBC43470 for S. jacquemontii. Species-specific markers could be found only for S. jacquemontii. In an effort to understand why there was difficulty in obtaining species-specific markers for some of the weedy species, a RAPD data matrix was created using 40 RAPD products. These 40 products amplified by 6 random primers from 45 individuals belonging to 12 species, were then subjected to numerical taxonomy and multivariate system (NTSYS pc version 1.70) analysis. The RAPD similarity matrix generated from the analysis indicated that S. pyramidalis was genetically more similar to S. natalensis than to other species of the 'S. indicus complex'. Similarly, S. jacquemontii was more similar to S. pyramidalis, and S. fertilis was more similar to S. africanus than to other species of the complex. Sporobolus pyramidalis, S. jacquemontii, S. africanus, and S. creber exhibited a low within-species genetic diversity, whereas high genetic diversity was observed within S. natalensis, S. fertilis, S. sessilis, S. elongates, and S. laxus. Cluster analysis placed all of the introduced species (major and minor weedy species) into one major cluster, with S. pyramidalis and S. natalensis in one distinct subcluster and S. fertilis and S. africanus in another. The native species formed separate clusters in the phenograms. The close genetic similarity of S. pyramidalis to S. natalensis, and S. fertilis to S. africanus may explain the difficulty in obtaining RAPD species-specific markers. The importance of these results will be within the Australian dairy and beef industries and will aid in the development of integrated management strategy for these weeds.

High-resolution melt-curve analysis of random-amplified-polymorphic-DNA markers, for the characterisation of pathogenic Leptospira.

A new test for pathogenic Leptospira isolates, based on RAPD-PCR and high-resolution melt (HRM) analysis (which measures the melting temperature of amplicons in real time, using a fluorescent DNA-binding dye), has recently been developed. A characteristic profile of the amplicons can be used to define serovars or detect genotypes. Ten serovars, of leptospires from the species Leptospira interrogans (serovars Australis, Robinsoni, Hardjo, Pomona, Zanoni, Copenhageni and Szwajizak), L. borgpetersenii (serovar Arborea), L. kirschneri (serovar Cynopteri) and L. weilii (serovar Celledoni), were typed against 13 previously published RAPD primers, using a real-time cycler (the Corbett Life Science RotorGene 6000) and the optimised reagents from a commercial kit (Quantace SensiMix). RAPD-HRM at specific temperatures generated defining amplicon melt profiles for each of the tested serovars. These profiles were evaluated as difference-curve graphs generated using the RotorGene software package, with a cut-off of at least 8 'U' (plus or minus). The results demonstrated that RAPD-HRM can be used to measure serovar diversity and establish identity, with a high degree of stability. The characterisation of Leptospira serotypes using a DNA-based methodology is now possible. As an objective and relatively inexpensive and rapid method of serovar identification, at least for cultured isolates, RAPD-HRM assays show convincing potentia.

Sustainable and profitable grazing management in a highly variable environment-evidence and insights from a long term grazing trial in northern Australia.

Rainfall variability is a major challenge to sustainable management in semi-arid rangelands. We present empirical evidence from a large, long-term grazing trial in northern Australia on the relative performance of constant heavy stocking, moderate stocking at long-term carrying capacity and variable stocking in coping with climate variability over a range of rainfall years. Moderate stocking gave good economic returns, maintained pasture condition and minimised soil loss and runoff. Heavy stocking was neither sustainable nor profitable in the long term. Variable stocking generally performed well but suffered economic loss and some decline in pasture condition in the transition from good to poor years. Importantly, our results show that sustainable and profitable management are compatible in semi-arid rangelands.

High-resolution melt-curve analysis of random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD-HRM) for the characterisation of pathogenic leptospires: intra-serovar divergence, interserovar convergence, and evidence of attenuation in Leptospira reference collections.

High-resolution melt-curve analysis of random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD-HRM) is a novel technology that has emerged as a possible method to characterise leptospires to serovar level. RAPD-HRM has recently been used to measure intra-serovar convergence between strains of the same serovar as well as inter-serovar divergence between strains of different serovars. The results indicate that intra-serovar heterogeneity and inter-serovar homogeneity may limit the application of RAPD-HRM in routine diagnostics. They also indicate that genetic attenuation of aged, high-passage-number isolates could undermine the use of RAPD-HRM or any other molecular technology. Such genetic attenuation may account for a general decrease seen in titres of rabbit hyperimmune antibodies over time. Before RAPD-HRM can be further advanced as a routine diagnostic tool, strains more representative of the wild-type serovars of a given region need to be identified. Further, RAPD-HRM analysis of reference strains indicates that the routine renewal of reference collections, with new isolates, may be needed to maintain the genetic integrity of the collections.

Salmonella Virchow and Salmonella Weltevreden in a Random Survey of the Asian House Gecko, Hemidactylus frenatus, in Houses in Northern Australia.

Background: Salmonella enterica serotype Virchow is the most common cause of invasive nontyphoid salmonellosis in North Queensland, particularly in infants, but the zoonotic source is unknown. This study aimed at determining (i) the prevalence of the introduced Asian house gecko, Hemidactylus frenatus, in houses in North Queensland and (ii) whether they were a potential source of Salmonella Virchow. Methods: Asian house geckos were collected in a random survey of houses in Townsville, North Queensland. Gut contents underwent microbiological analysis within 2 h of removal using both direct plating and enrichment broth methods. Any organism found to be a presumptive Salmonella spp. was then sent to a reference lab for confirmation of genus/species, serotyping, and phage typing if indicated. Results: One hundred Asian house geckos were collected from 57 houses. Geckos were present in 100% of houses surveyed, and prevalence of Salmonella in large intestinal contents was 7% (95% confidence interval 2, 12%). Three serotypes were found: Virchow (phage type 8), Weltevreden, and an untypable subspecies 1 serotype 11:-:1,7. Conclusion: Since Salmonella Virchow (phage type 8) is associated with invasive disease, the introduced Asian house gecko may play a significant role in the epidemiology of sporadic salmonellosis in places invaded by these peridomestic reptiles. These results justify more detailed epidemiological studies on the role of the Asian house gecko in sporadic salmonellosis and development of evidence-based strategies to decrease this potential zoonotic hazard.

Carbon grazing: Managing carbon flows for resilient pasture in variable climate

Work with consultants to help graziers understand implications of carbon in their pastures.

Sustainable management for rangelands in a variable climate: evidence and insights from northern Australia

Inter-annual rainfall variability is a major challenge to sustainable and productive grazing management on rangelands. In Australia, rainfall variability is particularly pronounced and failure to manage appropriately leads to major economic loss and environmental degradation. Recommended strategies to manage sustainably include stocking at long-term carrying capacity (LTCC) or varying stock numbers with forage availability. These strategies are conceptually simple but difficult to implement, given the scale and spatial heterogeneity of grazing properties and the uncertainty of the climate. This paper presents learnings and insights from northern Australia gained from research and modelling on managing for rainfall variability. A method to objectively estimate LTCC in large, heterogeneous paddocks is discussed, and guidelines and tools to tactically adjust stocking rates are presented. The possible use of seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) in management is also considered. Results from a 13-year grazing trial in Queensland show that constant stocking at LTCC was far more profitable and largely maintained land condition compared with heavy stocking (HSR). Variable stocking (VAR) with or without the use of SCF was marginally more profitable, but income variability was greater and land condition poorer than constant stocking at LTCC. Two commercial scale trials in the Northern Territory with breeder cows highlighted the practical difficulties of variable stocking and provided evidence that heavier pasture utilisation rates depress reproductive performance. Simulation modelling across a range of regions in northern Australia also showed a decline in resource condition and profitability under heavy stocking rates. Modelling further suggested that the relative value of variable v. constant stocking depends on stocking rate and land condition. Importantly, variable stocking may possibly allow slightly higher stocking rates without pasture degradation. Enterprise-level simulations run for breeder herds nevertheless show that poor economic performance can occur under constant stocking and even under variable stocking in some circumstances. Modelling and research results both suggest that a form of constrained flexible stocking should be applied to manage for climate variability. Active adaptive management and research will be required as future climate changes make managing for rainfall variability increasingly challenging.

Variable-number tandem repeats genotyping used to aid and inform management strategies for a bovine Johne's disease incursion in tropical and subtropical Australia

The application of variable-number tandem repeats (VNTR) genotyping of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis isolates to assist in investigating incidents of bovine Johne’s disease in a low-prevalence region of Australia is described in the current study. Isolates from a response to detection of bovine Johne’s disease in Queensland were compared with strains from national and international sources. The tandem application of mycobacterial interspersed repetitive unit (MIRU) and multilocus short sequence repeats (MLSSR) genotyping identified 2 strains, 1 that infected cattle on multiple properties with trace-forward histories from a common infected property, and 1 genotypically different strain recovered from a single property. The former strain showed an identical genotype to an isolate from India. Neither strain showed a genotypic link to regions of Australia with a higher prevalence of the disease. Genotyping has indicated incursions from 2 independent sources. This intelligence has informed investigations into potential routes of entry and the soundness of ongoing control measures, and supported strategy and policy decisions regarding management of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis incursions for Queensland.

Crop design for specific adaptation in variable dryland production environments

Climatic variability in dryland production environments (E) generates variable yield and crop production risks. Optimal combinations of genotype (G) and management (M) depend strongly on E and thus vary among sites and seasons. Traditional crop improvement seeks broadly adapted genotypes to give best average performance under a standard management regime across the entire production region, with some subsequent manipulation of management regionally in response to average local environmental conditions. This process does not search the full spectrum of potential G × M × E combinations forming the adaptation landscape. Here we examine the potential value (relative to the conventional, broad adaptation approach) of exploiting specific adaptation arising from G × M × E. We present an in-silico analysis for sorghum production in Australia using the APSIM sorghum model. Crop design (G × M) is optimised for subsets of locations within the production region (specific adaptation) and is compared with the optimum G across all environments with locally modified M (broad adaptation). We find that geographic subregions that have frequencies of major environment types substantially different from that for the entire production region show greatest advantage for specific adaptation. Although the specific adaptation approach confers yield and production risk advantages at industry scale, even greater benefits should be achievable with better predictors of environment-type likelihood than that conferred by location alone.

Climate savvy grazing (Developing improved grazing and related practices to assist beef production enterprises across northern Australia to adapt to a changing and more variable climate)

There is uncertainty over the potential changes to rainfall across northern Australia under climate change. Since rainfall is a key driver of pasture growth, cattle numbers and the resulting animal productivity and beef business profitability, the ability to anticipate possible management strategies within such uncertainty is crucial. The Climate Savvy Grazing project used existing research, expert knowledge and computer modelling to explore the best-bet management strategies within best, median and worse-case future climate scenarios. All three scenarios indicated changes to the environment and resources upon which the grazing industry of northern Australia depends. Well-adapted management strategies under a changing climate are very similar to best practice within current climatic conditions. Maintaining good land condition builds resource resilience, maximises opportunities under higher rainfall years and reduces the risk of degradation during drought and failed wet seasons. Matching stocking rate to the safe long-term carrying capacity of the land is essential; reducing stock numbers in response to poor seasons and conservatively increasing stock numbers in response to better seasons generally improves profitability and maintains land in good condition. Spelling over the summer growing season will improve land condition under a changing climate as it does under current conditions. Six regions were included within the project. Of these, the Victoria River District in the Northern Territory, Gulf country of Queensland and the Kimberley region of Western Australia had projections of similar or higher than current rainfall and the potential for carrying capacity to increase. The Alice Springs, Maranoa-Balonne and Fitzroy regions had projections of generally drying conditions and the greatest risk of reduced pasture growth and carrying capacity. Encouraging producers to consider and act on the risks, opportunities and management options inherent in climate change was a key goal of the project. More than 60,000 beef producers, advisors and stakeholders are now more aware of the management strategies which build resource resilience, and that resilience helps buffer against the effects of variable and changing climatic conditions. Over 700 producers have stated they have improved confidence, skills and knowledge to attempt new practices to build resilience. During the course of the project, more than 165 beef producers reported they have implemented changes to build resource and business resilience.