Inferential, non-parametric statistics to assess quality of probabilistic forecast systems

Many statistical forecast systems are available to interested users. In order to be useful for decision-making, these systems must be based on evidence of underlying mechanisms. Once causal connections between the mechanism and their statistical manifestation have been firmly established, the forecasts must also provide some quantitative evidence of `quality’. However, the quality of statistical climate forecast systems (forecast quality) is an ill-defined and frequently misunderstood property. Often, providers and users of such forecast systems are unclear about what ‘quality’ entails and how to measure it, leading to confusion and misinformation. Here we present a generic framework to quantify aspects of forecast quality using an inferential approach to calculate nominal significance levels (p-values) that can be obtained either by directly applying non-parametric statistical tests such as Kruskal-Wallis (KW) or Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) or by using Monte-Carlo methods (in the case of forecast skill scores). Once converted to p-values, these forecast quality measures provide a means to objectively evaluate and compare temporal and spatial patterns of forecast quality across datasets and forecast systems. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of providing p-values rather than adopting some arbitrarily chosen significance levels such as p < 0.05 or p < 0.01, which is still common practice. This is illustrated by applying non-parametric tests (such as KW and KS) and skill scoring methods (LEPS and RPSS) to the 5-phase Southern Oscillation Index classification system using historical rainfall data from Australia, The Republic of South Africa and India. The selection of quality measures is solely based on their common use and does not constitute endorsement. We found that non-parametric statistical tests can be adequate proxies for skill measures such as LEPS or RPSS. The framework can be implemented anywhere, regardless of dataset, forecast system or quality measure. Eventually such inferential evidence should be complimented by descriptive statistical methods in order to fully assist in operational risk management.

Boosting the productivity and profitability of northern Australian beef enterprises: Exploring innovation options using simulation modelling and systems analysis

The financial health of beef cattle enterprises in northern Australia has declined markedly over the last decade due to an escalation in production and marketing costs and a real decline in beef prices. Historically, gains in animal productivity have offset the effect of declining terms of trade on farm incomes. This raises the question of whether future productivity improvements can remain a key path for lifting enterprise profitability sufficient to ensure that the industry remains economically viable over the longer term. The key objective of this study was to assess the production and financial implications for north Australian beef enterprises of a range of technology interventions (development scenarios), including genetic gain in cattle, nutrient supplementation, and alteration of the feed base through introduced pastures and forage crops, across a variety of natural environments. To achieve this objective a beef systems model was developed that is capable of simulating livestock production at the enterprise level, including reproduction, growth and mortality, based on energy and protein supply from natural C4 pastures that are subject to high inter-annual climate variability. Comparisons between simulation outputs and enterprise performance data in three case study regions suggested that the simulation model (the Northern Australia Beef Systems Analyser) can adequately represent the performance beef cattle enterprises in northern Australia. Testing of a range of development scenarios suggested that the application of individual technologies can substantially lift productivity and profitability, especially where the entire feedbase was altered through legume augmentation. The simultaneous implementation of multiple technologies that provide benefits to different aspects of animal productivity resulted in the greatest increases in cattle productivity and enterprise profitability, with projected weaning rates increasing by 25%, liveweight gain by 40% and net profit by 150% above current baseline levels, although gains of this magnitude might not necessarily be realised in practice. While there were slight increases in total methane output from these development scenarios, the methane emissions per kg of beef produced were reduced by 20% in scenarios with higher productivity gain. Combinations of technologies or innovative practices applied in a systematic and integrated fashion thus offer scope for providing the productivity and profitability gains necessary to maintain viable beef enterprises in northern Australia into the future.

Use of business analysis in beef businesses to direct management practice change for climate adaptation outcomes

Beef businesses in northern Australia are facing increased pressure to be productive and profitable with challenges such as climate variability and poor financial performance over the past decade. Declining terms of trade, limited recent gains in on-farm productivity, low profit margins under current management systems and current climatic conditions will leave little capacity for businesses to absorb climate change-induced losses. In order to generate a whole-of-business focus towards management change, the Climate Clever Beef project in the Maranoa-Balonne region of Queensland trialled the use of business analysis with beef producers to improve financial literacy, provide a greater understanding of current business performance and initiate changes to current management practices. Demonstration properties were engaged and a systematic approach was used to assess current business performance, evaluate impacts of management changes on the business and to trial practices and promote successful outcomes to the wider industry. Focus was concentrated on improving financial literacy skills, understanding the business’ key performance indicators and modifying practices to improve both business productivity and profitability. To best achieve the desired outcomes, several extension models were employed: the ‘group facilitation/empowerment model’, the ‘individual consultant/mentor model’ and the ‘technology development model’. Providing producers with a whole-of-business approach and using business analysis in conjunction with on-farm trials and various extension methods proved to be a successful way to encourage producers in the region to adopt new practices into their business, in the areas of greatest impact. The areas targeted for development within businesses generally led to improvements in animal performance and grazing land management further improving the prospects for climate resilience.

Changes in sensory quality of sterile cantaloupe dice stored in controlled atmospheres.

Diced cantaloupe flesh that was microbiologically sterile was prepared in order to study the physiological deterioration of fruit when stored under a range of controlled atmospheres at 4.5°C. Sterile fruit pieces were prepared by boiling whole melons for 3 min, then dicing aseptically. Storage atmospheres were in continuous flow and contained from 0 to 26% CO2 and 3.5 to 17% O2. Sensory assessments were carried out by a highly trained panel at 14-day intervals. Products that were acceptable for up to 28 days were obtained when the following 3 treatments were used: 6% CO2 and 6% O2; 9.5% CO2 and 3.5% O2; and 15% CO2 and 6% O2. Overall, treatment with 0, 19.5 or 26% CO2 (irrespective of O2 concn.) caused significant deterioration in sensory properties.

Effect of an Ethylene Absorbent on Quality of Tomato Slices

Ethylene production is stimulated during the slicing of fresh cut tomato slices. Experiments were conducted to investigate whether the inclusion of ethylene absorbents in packaging affects the quality of tomato slices cv. Revolution during storage at 5OC. ‘Pink’ maturity stage tomatoes were cut into 7mm thick slices and vertically stacked in closed glass containers for 12 days with or without Purafil® to remove ethylene. The ethylene removal treatment resulted in reduced ethylene, less CO2 accumulation, and firmer slices.

Exposure of Tomato Fruit to 1-MCP Improves Quality of Stored Slices

Maintenance of quality, such as firmness, is important during storage of fresh cut produce. This study compared the effects of I-MCP on the quality of tomato slices when intact tomatoes were treated with 1-MCP and then sliced, or tomatoes were sliced and the slices treated with I-MCP. In both instances the MCP treatment was 1 µL Lˉٰ at 20 ºC for 12 h. Tomato cv. 'Revolution' was harvested at the 'pink' stage of maturity, cut into 7-mm slices, and stored as vertical stacks in closed plastic containers at 5ºC for up to 7 days after the 1-MCP treatment. Exposure of intact tomatoes to I-MCP resulted in reduced ethylene production (31%) and firmer (22%) slices than when tomatoes were not I-MCP treated. The application of I-MCP prior to slicing of tomatoes appears a useful strategy to retain quality of stored tomato slices.

Effects of severity of threshing damage on seed quality of Gatton panic Panicum maximum)

Different degrees of severity of threshing were imposed during combine-harvesting of seed of Gatton panic, a cultivar of Panicum maximum , to determine effects of degree of threshing damage on subsequent properties of seed. Threshing cylinder peripheral speeds and concave clearances covering the normal range employed commercially were varied experimentally in the harvest of 2 crops grown in north Queensland. Harvested seed was dried and cleaned, then stored under ambient conditions. The extent of physical damage was measured, and samples were tested at intervals for viability, germination, dormancy and seedling emergence from soil in a glasshouse and in the field over the 2 seasons following harvest. Physical damage increased as peripheral rotor speed rose and (though less markedly) as concave clearance was reduced. As the level of damage increased, viability was progressively reduced, life expectancy was shortened, and dormancy was broken. When the consequences were measured as seedling emergence from soil, the adverse effects on viability tended to cancel out the benefits of dormancy-breaking, leaving few net differences attributable to the degree of threshing severity. We concluded that there would be no value in trying to manipulate the quality of seed produced for normal commercial use through choice of cylinder settings, but that deliberate light or heavy threshing could benefit special-purpose seed, destined, respectively, for long-term storage or immediate use.

Effect of defoliation interval and height on the growth and quality of Arachis pintoi cv. Amarillo

The effect of defoliation on Amarillo (Arachis pintoi cv. Amarillo) was studied in a glasshouse and in mixed swards with 2 tropical grasses. In the glasshouse, Amarillo plants grown in pots were subjected to a 30/20°C or 25/15°C temperature regime and to defoliation at 10-, 20- or 30-day intervals for 60 days. Two field plot studies were conducted on Amarillo with either irrigated kikuyu (Pennisetum clandestinum) in autumn and spring or dryland Pioneer rhodes grass (Chloris gayana) over summer and autumn. Treatments imposed were 3 defoliation intervals (7, 14 and 28 days) and 2 residual heights (5 and 10 cm for kikuyu; 3 and 10 cm for rhodes grass) with extra treatments (56 days to 3 cm for both grasses and 21 days to 5 cm for kikuyu). Defoliation interval had no significant effect on accumulated Amarillo leaf dry matter (DM) at either temperature regime. At the higher temperature, frequent defoliation reduced root dry weight (DW) and increased crude protein (CP) but had no effect on stolon DW or in vitro organic matter digestibility (OMD). On the other hand, at the lower temperature, frequent defoliation reduced stolon DW and increased OMD but had no effect on root DW or CP. Irrespective of temperaure and defoliation, water-soluble carbohydrate levels were higher in stolons than in roots (4.70 vs 3.65%), whereas for starch the reverse occured (5.37 vs 9.44%). Defoliating the Amarillo-kikuyu sward once at 56 days to 3 cm produced the highest DM yield in autumn and sprong (582 and 7121 kg/ha DM, respectively), although the Amarillo component and OMD were substantially reduced. Highest DM yields (1726 kg/ha) were also achieved in the Amarillo-rhodes grass sward when defoliated every 56 days to 3 cm, although the Amarillo component was unaffected. In a mixed sward with either kikuyu or rhodes grass, the Amarillo component in the sward was maintained up to a 28-day defoliation interval and was higher when more severely defoliated. The results show that Amarillo can tolerate frequent defoliation and that it can co-exist with tropical grasses of differing growth habits, provided the Amarillo-tropical grass sward is subject to frequent and severe defoliation.

Quality of handling and holding yard environment, and beef cattle temperament: 1. Relationships with flight speed and fear of humans.

Numerous tests have been used to measure beef cattle temperament, but limited research has addressed the relationship between such tests and whether temperament can be modified. One-hundred-and-forty-four steers were given one of three human handling and yarding experiences on six occasions during a 12-month grazing period post-weaning (backgrounding): Good handling/yarding, Poor handling/yarding and Minimal handling/yarding. At the end of this phase the cattle were lot-fed for 78 days, with no handling/yarding treatments imposed, before being transported for commercial slaughter. Temperament was assessed at the start of the experiment, during backgrounding and lot-feeding by flight speed (FS) and a fear of humans test, which measured the proximity to a stimulus person (zone average; ZA), the closest approach to the person (CA) and the amount the cattle moved around the test arena (total transitions; TT). During backgrounding, FS decreased for all treatments and at the end of backgrounding there was no difference between them. The rate of decline, however, was greatest in the Good group, smallest in the Minimal group with the Poor intermediate. In contrast, ZA was affected by treatment, with a greater reduction for the Good group than the others (P = 0.012). During lot-feeding, treatment did not affect FS, but all groups showed a decrease in ZA, with the greatest change in the Poor group, the least in the Good and the Minimal intermediate (P = 0.052). CA was positively correlated with ZA (r = 0.18 to 0.66) and negatively with TT (r = -0.180 to -0.659). FS was consistently correlated with TT only (r = 0.17 to 0.49). These findings suggest that FS and TT measure a similar characteristic, as do ZA and CA, but that these characteristics are different from one another, indicating that temperament is not a unitary trait, but has different facets. FS and TT measure one facet that we suggest is general agitation, whilst ZA and CA measure fear of people. Thus, the cattle became less agitated during backgrounding, but the effect was not permanently influenced by the quantity and quality of handling/yarding. However, Good handling/yarding reduced fearfulness of people. Fear of people was also reduced during lot-feeding, probably as a consequence of frequent exposure to humans in a situation that was neutral or positive for the cattle.

NIRS calibrations for predicting the nutritional quality of feed

NIRS calibrations for predicting the nutritional quality of feed.

Improving the quality of kikuyu by reducing the lignin content

Development of improved pasture grass via chemical mutagenesis and selection of mutations in lignin genes.

DAQ00104 Sponge and dough bread quality of Australian wheat germplasm

The main grade of wheat targeted for the export sponge and dough (S&D) market is Australian prime hard (APH). By association, protein should be a key parameter relating to S&D quality, specifically loaf volume (LV). Surprisingly, the project revealed a low level of correlation between total protein content and LV. It appears that protein composition may be the key to understanding S&D quality, as the glutenin Glu D1 5+10 subunit contributed to the highest LVs. The current varieties KennedyA and SunzellA, together with several breeding lines, provided a consistently high quality over a number of seasons. These varieties performed as well as, if not better than, North American S&D varieties.

Barley genotype expressing "stay-green"-like characteristics maintains starch quality of the grain during water stress condition

The identification of "stay-green" in sorghum and its positive correlation with yield increases has encouraged attempts to incorporate "stay-green"-like traits into the genomes of other commercially important cereal crops. However, knowledge on the effects of "stay-green" expression on grain quality under extreme physiological stress is limited. This study examines impacts of "stay-green"-like expression on starch biosynthesis in barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) grain under mild, severe, and acute water stress conditions induced at anthesis. The proportions of long amylopectin branches and amylose branches in the grain of Flagship (a cultivar without "stay-green"-like characteristics) were higher at low water stress, suggesting that water stress affects starch biosynthesis in grain, probably due to early termination of grain fill. The changes in long branches can affect starch properties, such as the rates of enzymatic degradation, and hence its nutritional value. By contrast, grain from the "stay-green"-like cultivar (ND24260) did not show variation in starch molecular structure under the different water stress levels. The results indicate that the cultivar with "stay-green"-like traits has a greater potential to maintain starch biosynthesis and quality in grain during drought conditions, making the "stay-green"-like traits potentially useful in ensuring food security. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of 1-methylcyclopropene treatment on the sensory quality of 'Bartlett' pear fruit

The ethylene biosynthesis inhibitor, 1-methylcyclopropene (1-MCP), has been commercially used to extend the storage life of European pear fruit and to allow shipment to distant markets. However, the influence of 1-MCP on the ability of fruit to ripen to an acceptable sensory quality has not been investigated in 'Bartlett' pear, one of the most aromatic of pear fruit. In the current study, early-, mid- and late-season 'Bartlett' pear fruit were treated with 0.6μLL-1 1-MCP at 0°C for 24h, 100μLL-1 ethylene at 20°C for 24h, or untreated before immediate transfer to 20°C for ripening until eating soft (13N firmness). Fruit from each treatment were subjected to objective and sensory quality evaluation once ripe. Sensory quality showed differences related to harvest maturity; the importance of harvest maturity depended on the treatment. Treatment with 1-MCP effectively slowed fruit ripening and therefore extended postharvest life, but also resulted in fully ripened pears with more desirable sensory traits, as compared with ethylene-treated and untreated pears. The enhanced sensory quality was related to higher sweetness, juiciness and pear aroma and reduced fermented aroma, gritty texture and tart taste. In addition, the sensory profiles of 1-MCP-treated pears were more stable among fruit from the three harvest dates than the ethylene-treated pears, which exhibited very different sensory profiles between early- and late-season fruits. © 2015 Elsevier B.V.

Does Fumigation of Durum Wheat and Semolina with Sulfuryl Fluoride affect Quality of the Grain, Semolina and derived Spaghetti and Bread?

There is no information on the effect of sulfuryl fluoride (SF) on durum wheat technological properties and products made from fumigated durum wheat. Durum wheat and semolina were exposed to a range of SF applications under conditions that might be typically encountered in bulk storage facilities used in many countries. SF greatly reduced the germination percentage of fumigated durum wheat with increasing impact under higher SF concentration, grain moisture content, and fumigation temperature. SF greatly reduced seed germination percentage impacting more the higher the SF concentration. SF had little to no effects on grain test weight, 1000 grain weight, hardness, protein content, semolina ash content and mixograph properties. At the highest SF concentration (31.25 mg/L for 48 h) there was a tendency for pasta cooking loss to be increased but still acceptable while other pasta properties were largely unaffected. Fumigation with SF did not have any impact on the baking properties of a wholemeal durum flour-commercial flour mix. Therefore, SF is not recommended if the grains are to be used as seeds for agricultural production but for the production of semolina, pasta and bread, SF used under typical fumigation conditions has little to no impact on technological properties of durum wheat.