Inferential, non-parametric statistics to assess quality of probabilistic forecast systems

Many statistical forecast systems are available to interested users. In order to be useful for decision-making, these systems must be based on evidence of underlying mechanisms. Once causal connections between the mechanism and their statistical manifestation have been firmly established, the forecasts must also provide some quantitative evidence of `quality’. However, the quality of statistical climate forecast systems (forecast quality) is an ill-defined and frequently misunderstood property. Often, providers and users of such forecast systems are unclear about what ‘quality’ entails and how to measure it, leading to confusion and misinformation. Here we present a generic framework to quantify aspects of forecast quality using an inferential approach to calculate nominal significance levels (p-values) that can be obtained either by directly applying non-parametric statistical tests such as Kruskal-Wallis (KW) or Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) or by using Monte-Carlo methods (in the case of forecast skill scores). Once converted to p-values, these forecast quality measures provide a means to objectively evaluate and compare temporal and spatial patterns of forecast quality across datasets and forecast systems. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of providing p-values rather than adopting some arbitrarily chosen significance levels such as p < 0.05 or p < 0.01, which is still common practice. This is illustrated by applying non-parametric tests (such as KW and KS) and skill scoring methods (LEPS and RPSS) to the 5-phase Southern Oscillation Index classification system using historical rainfall data from Australia, The Republic of South Africa and India. The selection of quality measures is solely based on their common use and does not constitute endorsement. We found that non-parametric statistical tests can be adequate proxies for skill measures such as LEPS or RPSS. The framework can be implemented anywhere, regardless of dataset, forecast system or quality measure. Eventually such inferential evidence should be complimented by descriptive statistical methods in order to fully assist in operational risk management.

Assessing the cost-effectiveness of water quality interventions in South-East Queensland

The focus of this article is on the cost-effectiveness of mitigation strategies to reduce pollution loads and improve water quality in South-East Queensland. Scenarios were developed about the types of catchment interventions that could be considered, and the resulting changes in water quality indicators that may result. Once these catchment scenarios were modelled, the range of expected outcomes was assessed and the costs of mitigation interventions were estimated. Strategies considered include point and non-point source interventions. Predicted reductions in pollution levels were calculated for each action based on the expected population growth. The cost of the interventions included the full investment and annual running costs as well as planned public investment by the state agencies. Cost-effectiveness of strategies is likely to vary according to whether suspended sediments, nitrogen or phosphorus loads are being targeted.

Assessing for genetic and environmental effects on ruminant feed quality in barley ( Hordeum vulgare )

Grain samples from a combined intermediate and advanced stage barley breeding trial series, grown at two sites in two consecutive years were assessed for detailed grain quality and ruminant feed quality. The results indicated that there were significant genetic and environmental effects for “feed” traits as measured using grain hardness, acid detergent fibre (ADF), starch and in-sacco dry matter digestibility (ISDMD) assays. In addition, there was strong genotypic discrimination for the regressed feed performance traits, namely Net Energy (NE) and Average Daily Gain (ADG). There was considerable variation in genetic correlations for all traits based on variance from the cultivars used, sites or laboratory processing effects. There was a high level of heritability ranging from 89% to 88% for retention, 60% to 80% for protein and 56% to 68% for ADF. However, there were only low to moderate levels of heritability for the feed traits, with starch 30–39%, ISDMD 55–63%, ADF 56–68%, particle size 47–73%, 31–48% NE and ADG 44–51%. These results suggest that there were real differences in the feed performance of barleys and that selection for cattle feed quality is potentially a viable option for breeding programs.

Effect of defoliation interval and height on the growth and quality of Arachis pintoi cv. Amarillo

The effect of defoliation on Amarillo (Arachis pintoi cv. Amarillo) was studied in a glasshouse and in mixed swards with 2 tropical grasses. In the glasshouse, Amarillo plants grown in pots were subjected to a 30/20°C or 25/15°C temperature regime and to defoliation at 10-, 20- or 30-day intervals for 60 days. Two field plot studies were conducted on Amarillo with either irrigated kikuyu (Pennisetum clandestinum) in autumn and spring or dryland Pioneer rhodes grass (Chloris gayana) over summer and autumn. Treatments imposed were 3 defoliation intervals (7, 14 and 28 days) and 2 residual heights (5 and 10 cm for kikuyu; 3 and 10 cm for rhodes grass) with extra treatments (56 days to 3 cm for both grasses and 21 days to 5 cm for kikuyu). Defoliation interval had no significant effect on accumulated Amarillo leaf dry matter (DM) at either temperature regime. At the higher temperature, frequent defoliation reduced root dry weight (DW) and increased crude protein (CP) but had no effect on stolon DW or in vitro organic matter digestibility (OMD). On the other hand, at the lower temperature, frequent defoliation reduced stolon DW and increased OMD but had no effect on root DW or CP. Irrespective of temperaure and defoliation, water-soluble carbohydrate levels were higher in stolons than in roots (4.70 vs 3.65%), whereas for starch the reverse occured (5.37 vs 9.44%). Defoliating the Amarillo-kikuyu sward once at 56 days to 3 cm produced the highest DM yield in autumn and sprong (582 and 7121 kg/ha DM, respectively), although the Amarillo component and OMD were substantially reduced. Highest DM yields (1726 kg/ha) were also achieved in the Amarillo-rhodes grass sward when defoliated every 56 days to 3 cm, although the Amarillo component was unaffected. In a mixed sward with either kikuyu or rhodes grass, the Amarillo component in the sward was maintained up to a 28-day defoliation interval and was higher when more severely defoliated. The results show that Amarillo can tolerate frequent defoliation and that it can co-exist with tropical grasses of differing growth habits, provided the Amarillo-tropical grass sward is subject to frequent and severe defoliation.

The effect of different levels of inbreeding on self-incompatibility and inbreeding depression in pineapple

A high level of heterozygosity in domesticated pineapple is one of the main obstacles hindering the efficient development of new varieties. Selfing has been proposed as a strategy to minimise this heterozygosity through the development of parentals with a greater level of homozygosity. Selfing and a range of lesser levels of inbreeding were evaluated for their effects on seed production and inbreeding depression in the early growth of seedlings. Selfing produced few seeds, and very few viable seedlings. The paternal backcross and several half-sib combinations exhibited minimal effects on seed development or early growth and in some cases were similar to the outcross. Sibcrosses were generally unsuccessful. The highest inbreeding coefficient that was not associated with severe inbreeding depression was approximately 0.25. The effect of inbreeding depression and the level of homozygosity on several quantitative traits including those related to fruit quality within the inbred populations, is now being assessed.

The impact of dry matter, ripeness and internal defects on consumer perceptions of avocado quality and intentions to purchase.

Insights into the relative importance of various aspects of product quality can be provided through quantitative analysis of consumer preference and choice of fruit. In this study, methods previously used to establish taste preferences for kiwifruit (Harker et al., 2008) and conjoint approaches were used to determine the influence of three key aspects of avocado quality on consumer liking and willingness to purchase fruit: dry matter percentage (DM), level of ripeness (firmness) and internal defects (bruising). One hundred and seven consumers tasted avocados with a range of DM levels from ~20% (minimally mature) to nearly 40% (very mature), and at a range of fruit firmness (ripeness) stages (firm-ripe to soft-ripe). Responses to bruising, a common quality defect in fruit obtained from the retail shelf, were examined using a conjoint approach in which consumers were presented with photographs showing fruit affected by damage of varying severity. In terms of DM, consumers showed a progressive increase in liking and intent to buy avocados as the DM increased. In terms of ripeness, liking and purchase intent was higher in avocados that had softened to a firmness of 6.5 N or below (hand-rating 5). For internal defects, conjoint analysis revealed that price, level of bruising and incidence of bruising all significantly lowered consumers' future purchase decision, but the latter two factors had a greater impact than price. These results indicate the usefulness of the methodology, and also provide realistic targets for Hass avocado quality on the retail shelf.

Role of Native Fish in Integrated Aquatic Weed and Water Quality Management within the Burdekin Irrigation Area

This report summarises work conducted by the QDPI, in partnership with the South Burdekin Water Board (SBWB) and the Burdekin Shire Council (BSC) between 2001 and 2003. The broad aim of the research was to assess the potential of native fish as biocontrol agents for noxious weeds, as part of an integrated program for managing water quality in the Burdekin Irrigation Area. A series of trials were conducted at, or using water derived from, the Sandy Creek Diversion near Groper Creek (lower Burdekin delta). Trials demonstrated that aquatic weeds play a positive role in trapping transient nutrients, until such time that weed growth becomes self-shading and weed dieback occurs, which releases stored nutrients and adversely affects water quality. Transient nutrient levels (av. TN<0.5mg/L; av. TP<0.1mg/L) found in the irrigation channel during the course of this research were substantially lower than expected, especially considering the intensive agriculture and sewage effluent discharge upstream from the study site. This confirms the need to consider the control of weeds rather than complete weed extermination when formulating management plans. However, even when low nutrient levels are available, there is competitive exploitation of habitat variables in the irrigation area leading to succession and eventual domination by certain weed species. During these trials, we have seen filamentous algae, phytoplankton, hyacinth and curled pondweed each hold competitive advantage at certain points. However without intervention, floating weeds, especially hyacinth, ultimately predominate in the Burdekin delta due to their fast propagation rate and their ability to out-shade submerged plants. We have highlighted the complexity of interactions in these highly disturbed ecosystems in that even if the more prevalent noxious weeds are contained, other weed species will exploit the vacant niche. This complexity places stringent requirements on the type of native fish that can be used as biocontrol agents. Of the seven fish species identified with herbivorous trophic niches, most target plankton or algae and do not have the physical capacity to directly eat the larger macrophytes of the delta. We do find however that following mechanical weed harvesting, inoculative releases of fish can slow the rate of hyacinth recolonisation. This occurs by mechanisms in addition to direct weed consumption, such as disturbing growth surfaces by grazing on attached biofilms. Predation by birds and water rats presents another impediment to the efficacy of large-scale releases of fish. However, alternative uses of fish in water quality management in the Burdekin irrigation area are discussed.

Nutrient loss and water quality under extensive grazing in the upper Burdekin river catchment, North Queensland

Increased sediment and nutrient losses resulting from unsustainable grazing management in the Burdekin River catchment are major threats to water quality in the Great Barrier Reef Lagoon. To test the effects of grazing management on soil and nutrient loss, five 1 ha mini-catchments were established in 1999 under different grazing strategies on a sedimentary landscape near Charters Towers. Reference samples were also collected from watercourses in the Burdekin catchment during major flow events.Soil and nutrient loss were relatively low across all grazing strategies due to a combination of good cover, low slope and low rainfall intensities. Total soil loss varied from 3 to 20 kg haˉ¹ per event while losses of N and P ranged from 10 to 1900 g haˉ¹ and from 1 to 71 g haˉ¹ per event respectively. Water quality of runoff was considered moderate across all strategies with relatively low levels of total suspended sediment (range: 8-1409 mg lˉ¹), total N (range: 101-4000 ug lˉ¹) and total P (range: 14-609 ug lˉ¹). However, treatment differences are likely to emerge with time as the impacts of the different grazing strategies on land condition become more apparent.Samples collected opportunistically from rivers and creeks during flow events displayed significantly higher levels of total suspended sediment (range: 10-6010 mg lˉ¹), total N (range: 650-6350 ug lˉ¹) and total P (range: 50-1500 ug lˉ¹) than those collected at the grazing trial. These differences can largely be attributed to variation in slope, geology and cover between the grazing trial and different catchments. In particular, watercourses draining hillier, grano-diorite landscapes with low cover had markedly higher sediment and nutrient loads compared to those draining flatter, sedimentary landscapes.These preliminary data suggest that on relatively flat, sedimentary landscapes, extensive cattle grazing is compatible with achieving water quality targets, provided high levels of ground cover are maintained. In contrast, sediment and nutrient loss under grazing on more erodable land types is cause for serious concern. Long-term empirical research and monitoring will be essential to quantify the impacts of changed land management on water quality in the spatially and temporally variable Burdekin River catchment.

Barley genotype expressing "stay-green"-like characteristics maintains starch quality of the grain during water stress condition

The identification of "stay-green" in sorghum and its positive correlation with yield increases has encouraged attempts to incorporate "stay-green"-like traits into the genomes of other commercially important cereal crops. However, knowledge on the effects of "stay-green" expression on grain quality under extreme physiological stress is limited. This study examines impacts of "stay-green"-like expression on starch biosynthesis in barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) grain under mild, severe, and acute water stress conditions induced at anthesis. The proportions of long amylopectin branches and amylose branches in the grain of Flagship (a cultivar without "stay-green"-like characteristics) were higher at low water stress, suggesting that water stress affects starch biosynthesis in grain, probably due to early termination of grain fill. The changes in long branches can affect starch properties, such as the rates of enzymatic degradation, and hence its nutritional value. By contrast, grain from the "stay-green"-like cultivar (ND24260) did not show variation in starch molecular structure under the different water stress levels. The results indicate that the cultivar with "stay-green"-like traits has a greater potential to maintain starch biosynthesis and quality in grain during drought conditions, making the "stay-green"-like traits potentially useful in ensuring food security. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Changes in quality and bioactivity of native food during storage

Australian native foods have long been consumed by the Indigenous people of Australia. There is growing interest in the application of these foods in the functional food and complementary health care industries. Recent studies have provided information on the health properties of native foods but systematic study of changes in flavour and health components during processing and storage has not been done. It is well known that processing technologies such as packaging, drying and freezing can significantly alter the levels of health and flavour compounds. However, losses in compounds responsible for quality and bioactivity can be minimised by improving production practices. This report outlines research developed to provide the native food industry with reliable information on the retention of bioactive compounds during processing and storage to enable the development of product standards which in turn will provide the industry with scientific evidence to expand and explore new market opportunities globally.

On-farm Campylobacter and Escherichia coli in commercial broiler chickens: Re-used bedding does not influence Campylobacter emergence and levels across sequential farming cycles

Limitations in quality bedding material have resulted in the growing need to re-use litter during broiler farming in some countries, which can be of concern from a food-safety perspective. The aim of this study was to compare the Campylobacter levels in ceca and litter across three litter treatments under commercial farming conditions. The litter treatments were (a) the use of new litter after each farming cycle; (b) an Australian partial litter re-use practice; and (c) a full litter re-use practice. The study was carried out on two farms over two years (Farm 1, from 2009–2010 and Farm 2, from 2010–2011), across three sheds (35,000 to 40,000 chickens/shed) on each farm, adopting three different litter treatments across six commercial cycles. A random sampling design was adopted to test litter and ceca for Campylobacter and Escherichia coli, prior to commercial first thin-out and final pick-up. Campylobacter levels varied little across litter practices and farming cycles on each farm and were in the range of log 8.0–9.0 CFU/g in ceca and log 4.0–6.0 MPN/g for litter. Similarly the E. coli in ceca were ∼log 7.0 CFU/g. At first thin-out and final pick-up, the statistical analysis for both litter and ceca showed that the three-way interaction (treatments by farms by times) was highly significant (P < 0.01), indicating that the patterns of Campylobacter emergence/presence across time vary between the farms, cycles and pickups. The emergence and levels of both organisms were not influenced by litter treatments across the six farming cycles on both farms. Either C. jejuni or C. coli could be the dominant species across litter and ceca, and this phenomenon could not be attributed to specific litter treatments. Irrespective of the litter treatments in place, cycle 2 on Farm 2 remained campylobacter-free. These outcomes suggest that litter treatments did not directly influence the time of emergence and levels of Campylobacter and E. coli during commercial farming.

Modified atmosphere packaging effects on the postharvest quality of papaya fruit

Export of Fijian papaya (Carica papaya) fruit to destinations such as New Zealand has increased significantly over the last several years. Shipment by sea rather than air is the preferred method, given the capacity for larger volumes and reductions in cost. Long shipping times, however, can compromise fruit quality, although the use of modified atmosphere packaging (MAP) may provide a viable solution for extending fruit storage life. In a collaborative ACIAR project, Australian and Fijian researchers investigated the potential of using MAP to extend storage life of a Fijian papaya ('Fiji Red') fruit based on simulated sea transport conditions. Fruit were packed in one of three MAP environments within cartons, consisting of either a (1) Low Density Polyethylene (LDPE) bag with 10 g of KMnO4, (2) Polyamide Film (PF) bag with macro-perforations or (3) without a bag (control fruit). Fruit were held for 1, 2 or 3 weeks at 10°C before being unpacked, ripened and assessed for quality. On day 6 after outturn, fruit with the highest overall quality were those held in LDPE bags. LDPE fruit generally coloured up faster at outturn than PF or control fruit, had less overall moisture loss and scored high in flavour. Headspace carbon dioxide and oxygen concentrations within the LDPE bags were also near recommended levels for maintaining optimum storage-life quality. The LDPE bag provided the most suitable conditions for long term storage of fresh papaya fruit and is therefore the recommended MAP type for use with sea freight export out of Fiji.

Genetic variation in growth and wood-quality traits of Corymbia citriodora subsp. variegata across three sites in south-east Queensland, Australia

Ten growth or wood-quality traits were assessed in three nearby Corymbia citriodora subsp. variegata (CCV) open-pollinated family-within-provenance trials (18 provenances represented by a total of 374 families) to provide information for the development of a breeding program targeting both pulp and solid-wood products. Growth traits (diameter at breast high over bark [DBH], height and conical volume) were assessed at 3 and 7 years of age. Wood-quality traits (density [DEN], Kraft pulp yield [KPY], modulus of elasticity [MoE] and microfibril angle [MfA]) were predicted using near-infrared spectroscopy on wood samples collected from these trials when aged between 10 and 12 years. The high average KPY, DEN and MoE, and low average MfA observed indicates CCV is very suitable for both pulp and timber products. All traits were under moderate to strong genetic control. In across- trials analyses, high (>0.4) heritability estimates were observed for height, DEN, MoE and MfA, while moderate heritability estimates (0.24 to 0.34) were observed for DBH, volume and KPY. Most traits showed very low levels of genotype × site interaction. Estimated age–age genetic correlations for growth traits were strong at both the family (0.97) and provenance (0.99) levels. Relationships among traits (additive genetic correlation estimates) were favourable, with strong and positive estimates between growth traits (0.84 to 0.98), moderate and positive values between growth and wood-quality traits (0.32 to 0.68), moderate and positive between KPY and MoE (0.64), and high and positive between DEN and MoE (0.82). However, negative (but favourable) correlations were detected between MfA and all other evaluated traits (−0.31 to −0.96). The genetic correlation between the same trait expressed on two different sites, at family level, ranged from 0.24 to 0.42 for growth traits, and from 0.29 to 0.53 for wood traits. Therefore simultaneous genetic improvement of growth and wood property traits in CCV for the target environment in south-east Queensland should be possible, given the moderate to high estimates of heritability and favourable correlations amongst all traits studied, unless genotype × site interactions are greater than was evident. © 2016 NISC (Pty) Ltd