Migration of feral pigs (Sus scrofa) in rainforests of north Queensland: fact or fiction?

The Wet Tropics bioregion of north Queensland has been identified as an area of global significance. The world-heritage-listed rainforests have been invaded by feral pigs (Sus scrofa) that are perceived to cause substantial environmental damage. A community perception exists of an annual altitudinal migration of the feral-pig population. The present study describes the movements of 29 feral pigs in relation to altitudinal migration (highland, transitional and lowland areas). Feral pigs were sedentary and stayed within their home range throughout a 4-year study period. No altitudinal migration was detected; pigs moved no more than a mean distance of 1.0 km from the centre of their calculated home ranges. There was no significant difference between the mean (+/- 95% confidence interval) aggregate home ranges for males (8.7 +/- 4.3 km², n = 15) and females (7.2 +/- 1.8 km², n = 14). No difference in home range was detected among the three altitudinal areas: 7.2 +/- 2.4 km² for highland, 6.2 +/- 3.9 km² for transitional and 9.9 +/- 5.3 km² for lowland areas. The aggregate mean home range for all pigs in the present study was 8.0 +/- 2.4 km². The study also assessed the influence seasons had on the home range of eight feral pigs on the rainforest boundary; home ranges did not significantly vary in size between the tropical wet and dry seasons, although the mean home range in the dry season (7.7 +/- 6.9 km²) was more than twice the home range in the wet season (2.9 +/- 0.8 km²). Heavier pigs tended to have larger home ranges. The results of the present study suggest that feral pigs are sedentary throughout the year so broad-scale control techniques need to be applied over sufficient areas to encompass individual home ranges. Control strategies need a coordinated approach if a long-term reduction in the pig population is to be achieved.

An investigation of migration and possible stock structuring by the stout whiting, Sillago robusta, in southern Queensland waters, and its impact on managing the fishery. Final Report on the Pilot Program

A highly polymorphic genetic locus of Stout Whiting was examined for evidence of geographical subdivision amongst samples collected from three locales in southern Queensland waters. Statistical indicators of subdivision were not significantly different from zero, suggesting that it is unlikely that the Stout Whiting resource in southern Queensland is genetically subdivided into separate stocks. It is recommended that the full-scale genetic program not proceed and that the resource be managed as a single stock.

Migration of green turtles (Chelonia mydas) from Australasian feeding grounds inferred from genetic analyses

Coastal seagrass habitats in tropical and subtropical regions support aggregations of resident green turtles (Chelonia mydas) from several genetically distinct breeding populations. Migration of individuals to their respective dispersed breeding sites provides a complex pattern of migratory connectivity among nesting and feeding habitats of this species. An understanding of this pattern is important in regions where the persistence of populations is under threat from anthropogenic impacts. The present study uses mitochondrial DNA and mixed-stock analyses to assess the connectivity among seven feeding grounds across the north Australian coast and adjacent areas and 17 genetically distinct breeding populations from the Indo-Pacific region. It was hypothesised that large and geographically proximate breeding populations would dominate at nearby feeding grounds. As expected, each sampled feeding area appears to support multiple breeding populations, with two aggregations dominated by a local breeding population. Geographic distance between breeding and feeding habitat strongly influenced whether a breeding population contributed to a feeding ground (wi = 0.654); however, neither distance nor size of a breeding population was a good predictor of the extent of their contribution. The differential proportional contributions suggest the impact of anthropogenic mortality at feeding grounds should be assessed on a case-by-case basis.

Estimating and influencing the duration of weed eradication programmes

1. Weed eradication efforts often must be sustained for long periods owing to the existence of persistent seed banks, among other factors. Decision makers need to consider both the amount of investment required and the period over which investment must be maintained when determining whether to commit to (or continue) an eradication programme. However, a basis for estimating eradication programme duration based on simple data has been lacking. Here, we present a stochastic dynamic model that can provide such estimates. 2. The model is based upon the rates of progression of infestations from the active to the monitoring state (i.e. no plants detected for at least 12 months), rates of reversion of infestations from monitoring to the active state and the frequency distribution of time since last detection for all infestations. Isoquants that illustrate the combinations of progression and reversion parameters corresponding to eradication within different time frames are generated. 3. The model is applied to ongoing eradication programmes targeting branched broomrape Orobanche ramosa and chromolaena Chromolaena odorata. The minimum periods in which eradication could potentially be achieved were 22 and 23 years, respectively. On the basis of programme performance until 2008, however, eradication is predicted to take considerably longer for both species (on average, 62 and 248 years, respectively). Performance of the branched broomrape programme could be best improved through reducing rates of reversion to the active state; for chromolaena, boosting rates of progression to the monitoring state is more important. 4. Synthesis and applications. Our model for estimating weed eradication programme duration, which captures critical transitions between a limited number of states, is readily applicable to any weed.Aparticular strength of the method lies in its minimal data requirements. These comprise estimates of maximum seed persistence and infested area, plus consistent annual records of the detection (or otherwise) of the weed in each infestation. This work provides a framework for identifying where improvements in management are needed and a basis for testing the effectiveness of alternative tactics. If adopted, our approach should help improve decision making with regard to eradication as a management strategy.

Estimating the duration and cost of weed eradication programmes

Two prerequisites for realistically embarking upon an eradication programme are that cost-benefit analysis favours this strategy over other management options and that sufficient resources are available to carry the programme through to completion. These are not independent criteria, but it is our view that too little attention has been paid to estimating the investment required to complete weed eradication programmes. We deal with this problem by using a two-pronged approach: 1) developing a stochastic dynamic model that provides an estimation of programme duration; and 2) estimating the inputs required to delimit a weed incursion and to prevent weed reproduction over a sufficiently long period to allow extirpation of all infestations. The model is built upon relationships that capture the time-related detection of new infested areas, rates of progression of infestations from the active to the monitoring stage, rates of reversion of infestations from the monitoring to active stage, and the frequency distribution of time since last detection for all infestations. This approach is applied to the branched broomrape (Orobanche ramosa) eradication programme currently underway in South Australia. This programme commenced in 1999 and currently 7450 ha are known to be infested with the weed. To date none of the infestations have been eradicated. Given recent (2008) levels of investment and current eradication methods, model predictions are that it would take, on average, an additional 73 years to eradicate this weed at an average additional cost (NPV) of $AU67.9m. When the model was run for circumstances in 2003 and 2006, the average programme duration and total cost (NPV) were predicted to be 159 and 94 years, and $AU91.3m and $AU72.3m, respectively. The reduction in estimated programme length and cost may represent progress towards the eradication objective, although eradication of this species still remains a long term prospect.

Evaluating the performance of weed containment programmes

Aim: To develop approaches to the evaluation of programmes whose strategic objectives are to halt or slow weed spread. Location: Australia. Methods: Key aspects in the evaluation of weed containment programmes are considered. These include the relevance of models that predict the effects of management intervention on spread, the detection of spread, evidence for containment failure and metrics for absolute or partial containment. Case studies documenting either near-absolute (Orobanche ramosa L., branched broomrape) or partial (Parthenium hysterophorus (L.) King and Robinson, parthenium) containment are presented. Results: While useful for informing containment strategies, predictive models cannot be employed in containment programme evaluation owing to the highly stochastic nature of realized weed spread. The quality of observations is critical to the timely detection of weed spread. Effectiveness of surveillance and monitoring activities will be improved by utilizing information on habitat suitability and identification of sites from which spread could most compromise containment. Proof of containment failure may be difficult to obtain. The default option of assuming that a new detection represents containment failure could lead to an underestimate of containment success, the magnitude of which will depend on how often this assumption is made. Main conclusions: Evaluation of weed containment programmes will be relatively straightforward if containment is either absolute or near-absolute and may be based on total containment area and direct measures of containment failure, for example, levels of dispersal, establishment and reproduction beyond (but proximal to) the containment line. Where containment is only partial, other measures of containment effectiveness will be required. These may include changes in the rates of detection of new infestations following the institution of interventions designed to reduce dispersal, the degree of compliance with such interventions, and the effectiveness of tactics intended to reduce fecundity or other demographic drivers of spread. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Phylodynamic evidence of the migration of turnip mosaic potyvirus from Europe to Australia and New Zealand

Turnip mosaic virus (TuMV) is a potyvirus that is transmitted by aphids and infects a wide range of plant species. We investigated the evolution of this pathogen by collecting 32 isolates of TuMV, mostly from Brassicaceae plants, in Australia and New Zealand. We performed a variety of sequence-based phylogenetic and population genetic analyses of the complete genomic sequences and of three non-recombinogenic regions of those sequences. The substitution rates, divergence times and phylogeographical patterns of the virus populations were estimated. Six inter- and seven intralineage recombination-type patterns were found in the genomes of the Australian and New Zealand isolates, and all were novel. Only one recombination-type pattern has been found in both countries. The Australian and New Zealand populations were genetically different, and were different from the European and Asian populations. Our Bayesian coalescent analyses, based on a combination of novel and published sequence data from three nonrecombinogenic protein-encoding regions, showed that TuMV probably started to migrate from Europe to Australia and New Zealand more than 80 years ago, and that distinct populations arose as a result of evolutionary drivers such as recombination. The basal-B2 subpopulation in Australia and New Zealand seems to be older than those of the world-B2 and -B3 populations. To our knowledge, our study presents the first population genetic analysis of TuMV in Australia and New Zealand. We have shown that the time of migration of TuMV correlates well with the establishment of agriculture and migration of Europeans to these countries.