Risk management strategies using seasonal climate forecasting in irrigated cotton production: a tale of stochastic dominance.

Decision-making in agriculture is carried out in an uncertain environment with farmers often seeking information to reduce risk. As a result of the extreme variability of rainfall and stream-flows in north-eastern Australia, water supplies for irrigated agriculture are a limiting factor and a source of risk. The present study examined the use of seasonal climate forecasting (SCF) when calculating planting areas for irrigated cotton in the northern Murray Darling Basin. Results show that minimising risk by adjusting plant areas in response to SCF can lead to significant gains in gross margin returns. However, how farmers respond to SCF is dependent on several other factors including irrigators’ attitude towards risk.

Comparison of the impact of six heat-load management strategies on thermal responses and milk production of feed-pad and pasture fed dairy cows in a subtropical environment

Exposure to hot environments affects milk yield (MY) and milk composition of pasture and feed-pad fed dairy cows in subtropical regions. This study was undertaken during summer to compare MY and physiology of cows exposed to six heat-load management treatments. Seventy-eight Holstein-Friesian cows were blocked by season of calving, parity, milk yield, BW, and milk protein (%) and milk fat (%) measured in 2 weeks prior to the start of the study. Within blocks, cows were randomly allocated to one of the following treatments: open-sided iron roofed day pen adjacent to dairy (CID) + sprinklers (SP); CID only; non-shaded pen adjacent to dairy + SP (NSD + SP); open-sided shade cloth roofed day pen adjacent to dairy (SCD); NSD + sprinkler (sprinkler on for 45 min at 1100 h if mean respiration rate >80 breaths per minute (NSD + WSP)); open-sided shade cloth roofed structure over feed bunk in paddock + 1 km walk to and from the dairy (SCP + WLK). Sprinklers for CID + SP and NSD + SP cycled 2 min on, 12 min off when ambient temperature >26°C. The highest milk yields were in the CID + SP and CID treatments (23.9 L cow−1 day−1), intermediate for NSD + SP, SCD and SCP + WLK (22.4 L cow−1 day−1), and lowest for NSD + WSP (21.3 L cow−1 day−1) (P < 0.05). The highest (P < 0.05) feed intakes occurred in the CID + SP and CID treatments while intake was lowest (P < 0.05) for NSD + WSP and SCP + WLK. Weather data were collected on site at 10-min intervals, and from these, THI was calculated. Nonlinear regression modelling of MY × THI and heat-load management treatment demonstrated that cows in CID + SP showed no decline in MY out to a THI break point value of 83.2, whereas the pooled MY of the other treatments declined when THI >80.7. A combination of iron roof shade plus water sprinkling throughout the day provided the most effective control of heat load.

Influence of climate variability and stocking strategies on greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE), production and profit of a northern Queensland beef cattle herd

Previous studies of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) from beef production systems in northern Australia have been based on models of ‘steady-state’ herd structures that do not take into account the considerable inter-annual variation in liveweight gain, reproduction and mortality rates that occurs due to seasonal conditions. Nor do they consider the implications of flexible stocking strategies designed to adapt these production systems to the highly variable climate. The aim of the present study was to quantify the variation in total GHGE (t CO2e) and GHGE intensity (t CO2e/t liveweight sold) for the beef industry in northern Australia when variability in these factors was considered. A combined GRASP–Enterprise modelling platform was used to simulate a breeding–finishing beef cattle property in the Burdekin River region of northern Queensland, using historical climate data from 1982–2011. GHGE was calculated using the method of Australian National Greenhouse Gas Inventory. Five different stocking-rate strategies were simulated with fixed stocking strategies at moderate and high rates, and three flexible stocking strategies where the stocking rate was adjusted annually by up to 5%, 10% or 20%, according to pasture available at the end of the growing season. Variation in total annual GHGE was lowest in the ‘fixed moderate’ (~9.5 ha/adult equivalent (AE)) stocking strategy, ranging from 3799 to 4471 t CO2e, and highest in the ‘fixed high’ strategy (~5.9 ha/AE), which ranged from 3771 to 7636 t CO2e. The ‘fixed moderate’ strategy had the least variation in GHGE intensity (15.7–19.4 t CO2e/t liveweight sold), while the ‘flexible 20’ strategy (up to 20% annual change in AE) had the largest range (10.5–40.8 t CO2e/t liveweight sold). Across the five stocking strategies, the ‘fixed moderate’ stocking-rate strategy had the highest simulated perennial grass percentage and pasture growth, highest average rate of liveweight gain (121 kg/steer), highest average branding percentage (74%) and lowest average breeding-cow mortality rate (3.9%), resulting in the lowest average GHGE intensity (16.9 t CO2e/t liveweight sold). The ‘fixed high’ stocking rate strategy (~5.9 ha/AE) performed the poorest in each of these measures, while the three flexible stocking strategies were intermediate. The ‘fixed moderate’ stocking strategy also yielded the highest average gross margin per AE carried and per hectare. These results highlight the importance of considering the influence of climate variability on stocking-rate management strategies and herd performance when estimating GHGE. The results also support a body of previous work that has recommended the adoption of moderate stocking strategies to enhance the profitability and ecological stability of beef production systems in northern Australia.

Protein supplementation and growth enhancer strategies in successive years to maximise growth of Brahman cross steers grazing sown grass pastures on brigalow lands

A strategy comprising a winter/spring protein supplement, rumen modifier and hormonal growth promotant (Compudose 400) was used in either the first year (Tl), second year (T2), or in both years (T1+2) following weaning in Brahman cross steers as a means of increasing liveweight gain up to 2.5 years of age. T2 produced the heaviest final liveweight (544.7 kg) and highest overall liveweight gain (366.7 kg), but these were not significantly different from T1 (538.6 kg; 360.9 kg), or T1+2 (528.7 kg; 349.3 kg). However, final liveweight and overall liveweight gains of T1 and T2 but not T1+2 were significantly greater than for untreated (C) steers (504.9 kg; 325.2 kg, both P < 0.05). Regardless of the strategy imposed, liveweight and liveweight gain were enhanced, however final liveweights in each treatment were below the preferred minimum target liveweight (570-580 kg) for premium export markets. Treatment in both years gave no benefit over treatment in 1 year only. 19th Biennial Conference. 5-9 July 1992. LaTrobe University, Melbourne.

Effect of irrigation amounts applied with subsurface drip irrigation on corn evapotranspiration, yield, water use efficiency, and dry matter production in a semiarid climate

Quantifying the local crop response to irrigation is important for establishing adequate irrigation management strategies. This study evaluated the effect of irrigation applied with subsurface drip irrigation on field corn (Zea mays L.) evapotranspiration (ETc), yield, water use efficiencies (WUE = yield/ETc, and IWUE = yield/irrigation), and dry matter production in the semiarid climate of west central Nebraska. Eight treatments were imposed with irrigation amounts ranging from 53 to 356 mm in 2005 and from 22 to 226 mm in 2006. A soil water balance approach (based on FAO-56) was used to estimate daily soil water and ETc. Treatments resulted in seasonal ETc of 580-663 mm and 466-656 mm in 2005 and 2006, respectively. Yields among treatments differed by as much as 22% in 2005 and 52% in 2006. In both seasons, irrigation significantly affected yields, which increased with irrigation up to a point where irrigation became excessive. Distinct relationships were obtained each season. Yields increased linearly with seasonal ETc (R 2 = 0.89) and ETc/ETp (R 2 = 0.87) (ETp = ETc with no water stress). The yield response factor (ky), which indicates the relative reduction in yield to relative reduction in ETc, averaged 1.58 over the two seasons. WUE increased non-linearly with seasonal ETc and with yield. WUE was more sensitive to irrigation during the drier 2006 season, compared with 2005. Both seasons, IWUE decreased sharply with irrigation. Irrigation significantly affected dry matter production and partitioning into the different plant components (grain, cob, and stover). On average, the grain accounted for the majority of the above-ground plant dry mass (≈59%), followed by the stover (≈33%) and the cob (≈8%). The dry mass of the plant and that of each plant component tended to increase with seasonal ETc. The good relationships obtained in the study between crop performance indicators and seasonal ETc demonstrate that accurate estimates of ETc on a daily and seasonal basis can be valuable for making tactical in-season irrigation management decisions and for strategic irrigation planning and management.

Black Sigatoka disease: new technologies to strengthen eradication strategies in Australia

In 2001, an incursion of Mycosphaerella fijiensis, the causal agent of black Sigatoka, was detected in Australia's largest commercial banana growing region, the Tully Banana Production Area in North Queensland. An intensive surveillance and eradication campaign was undertaken which resulted in the reinstatement of the disease-free status for black Sigatoka in 2005. This was the first time black Sigatoka had ever been eradicated from commercial plantations. The success of the eradication campaign was testament to good working relationships between scientists, growers, crop monitors, quarantine regulatory bodies and industry. A key contributing factor to the success was the deployment of a PCR-based molecular diagnostic assay, developed by the Cooperative Research Centre for Tropical Plant Protection (CRCTPP). This assay complemented morphological identification and allowed high throughput diagnosis of samples facilitating rapid decision-making during the eradication campaign. This paper describes the development and successful deployment of molecular diagnostics for black Sigatoka. Shortcomings in the gel-based assay are discussed and the advantages of highly specific real-time PCR assays, capable of differentiating between Mycosphaerella fijiensis, Mycosphaerella musicola and Mycosphaerella eumusae are outlined. Real-time assays may provide a powerful diagnostic tool for applications in surveillance, disease forecasting and resistance testing for Sigatoka leaf spot diseases.

A systems evaluation of high-input management using fortified molasses for beef production in Australia's dry tropics

The potential of beef producers to profitably produce 500-kg steers at 2.5 years of age in northern Australia's dry tropics to meet specifications of high-value markets, using a high-input management (HIM) system was examined. HIM included targeted high levels of fortified molasses supplementation, short seasonal mating and the use of growth promotants. Using herds of 300-400 females plus steer progeny at three sites, HIM was compared at a business level to prevailing best-practice, strategic low-input management (SLIM) in which there is a relatively low usage of energy concentrates to supplement pasture intake. The data presented for each breeding-age cohort within management system at each site includes: annual pregnancy rates (range: 14-99%), time of conception, mortalities (range: 0-10%), progeny losses between confirmed pregnancy and weaning (range: 0-29%), and weaning rates (range: 14-92%) over the 2-year observation. Annual changes in weight and relative net worth were calculated for all breeding and non-breeding cohorts. Reasons for outcomes are discussed. Compared with SLIM herds, both weaning weights and annual growth were >= 30 kg higher, enabling 86-100% of HIM steers to exceed 500 kg at 2.5 years of age. Very few contemporary SLIM steers reached this target. HIM was most profitably applied to steers. Where HIM was able to achieve high pregnancy rates in yearlings, its application was recommended in females. Well managed, appropriate HIM systems increased profits by around $15/adult equivalent at prevailing beef and supplement prices. However, a 20% supplement price rise without a commensurate increase in values for young slaughter steers would generally eliminate this advantage. This study demonstrated the complexity of pro. table application of research outcomes to commercial business, even when component research suggests that specific strategies may increase growth and reproductive efficiency and/or be more pro. table. Because of the higher level of management required, higher costs and returns, and higher susceptibility to market changes and disease, HIM systems should only be applied after SLIM systems are well developed. To increase profitability, any strategy must ultimately either increase steer growth and sale values and/or enable a shift to high pregnancy rates in yearling heifers.

Managing for rainfall variability: effect of grazing strategy on cattle production in a dry tropical savanna

Rainfall variability is a challenge to sustainable and pro. table cattle production in northern Australia. Strategies recommended to manage for rainfall variability, like light or variable stocking, are not widely adopted. This is due partly to the perception that sustainability and profitability are incompatible. A large, long-term grazing trial was initiated in 1997 in north Queensland, Australia, to test the effect of different grazing strategies on cattle production. These strategies are: (i) constant light stocking (LSR) at long-term carrying capacity (LTCC); (ii) constant heavy stocking (HSR) at twice LTCC; (iii) rotational wet-season spelling (R/Spell) at 1.5 LTCC; (iv) variable stocking (VAR), with stocking rates adjusted in May based on available pasture; and (v) a Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) variable strategy, with stocking rates adjusted in November, based on available pasture and SOI seasonal forecasts. Animal performance varied markedly over the 10 years for which data is presented, due to pronounced differences in rainfall and pasture availability. Nonetheless, lighter stocking at or about LTCC consistently gave the best individual liveweight gain (LWG), condition score and skeletal growth; mean LWG per annum was thus highest in the LSR (113 kg), intermediate in the R/Spell (104 kg) and lowest in the HSR(86 kg). MeanLWGwas 106 kg in the VAR and 103 kg in the SOI but, in all years, the relative performance of these strategies was dependent upon the stocking rate applied. After 2 years on the trial, steers from lightly stocked strategies were 60-100 kg heavier and received appreciable carcass price premiums at the meatworks compared to those under heavy stocking. In contrast, LWG per unit area was greatest at stocking rates of about twice LTCC; mean LWG/ha was thus greatest in the HSR (21 kg/ha), but this strategy required drought feeding in four of the 10 years and was unsustainable. Although LWG/ha was lower in the LSR (mean 14 kg/ha), or in strategies that reduced stocking rates in dry years like the VAR(mean 18 kg/ha) and SOI (mean 17 kg/ha), these strategies did not require drought feeding and appeared sustainable. The R/Spell strategy (mean 16 kg/ha) was compromised by an ill-timed fire, but also performed satisfactorily. The present results provide important evidence challenging the assumption that sustainable management in a variable environment is unprofitable. Further research is required to fully quantify the long-term effects of these strategies on land condition and profitability and to extrapolate the results to breeder performance at the property level.

Fox management in south-eastern Australia: management strategies and cost-efficiencies

The European red fox is one of Australia´s most devastating vertebrate affecting both biodiversity and agricultural production. Fox management strategies rely heavily on poisoning using baits impregnated with sodium fluoroacetate (1080). Factors such as the ability of foxes to locate bait, palatability and toxicity of bait, pattern and density of bait distribution, and cost/benefits of specific use patterns all affect the overall efficiency of management programs. It is essential to examine and refine all such factors to manage the damaging impacts of this pest species. This book examines the problems associated with management of the fox in south-eastern Australia, highlights deficiencies in ´best-practice´ baiting techniques, and provides recommendations to improve current management strategies and guide future research.

Spelling strategies for recovery of pasture condition

This work will progess and extend recommendations and guidelines for use of integrated wet season spelling in Queenslands savannahs and woodlands. The research will generate a greater ecological and pasture production understanding of pastures and soils that exist in C land condition areas (major landtypes), and their recovery. Practical, cost-effective spelling regimes will be developed. Research will be conducted on-property with small plot exclosures and plots with controlled utilisation levels, examining ecological responses to different spelling regimes. This information will improve bio-economic modelling capacity. Industry consultations with producers and field staff will drive implementation of the recommendations arising.

Virus identification and development of long-term management strategies for the rhubarb industry

The purpose of this report is to present the final results of all activities conducted under HAL Project VG05053 ‘Virus identification and development of long-term management strategies for the rhubarb industry’. The report provides a summary of project findings, a description of technology transfer activities, and recommendations arising from the outcomes of the project. The overall objective of this project was to devise a strategy for the control of rhubarb decline disease through 1) knowledge of the viruses present and their epidemiology, 2) production of virus-free planting material via tissue culture, and 3) formation of a national grower group to represent industry.

Rice flower integrating production and marketing

This book contains guidelines on market-driven production for export markets, with information on how the marketing chain operates and what risks are involved. Using rice flower as an example, the book gives growers strategies to enhance their market performance and improve the profitability of their enterprises. It outlines some practical suggestions for marketing rice flower in Japan, the United States, Taiwan and Hong Kong as well as in Australia, and also provides a draft standard for rice flower for export markets.

The importance of grasslands for animal production and other functions: a review on management and methodological progress in the tropics

The global importance of grasslands is indicated by their extent; they comprise some 26% of total land area and 80% of agriculturally productive land. The majority of grasslands are located in tropical developing countries where they are particularly important to the livelihoods of some one billion poor peoples. Grasslands clearly provide the feed base for grazing livestock and thus numerous high-quality foods, but such livestock also provide products such as fertilizer, transport, traction, fibre and leather. In addition, grasslands provide important services and roles including as water catchments, biodiversity reserves, for cultural and recreational needs, and potentially a carbon sink to alleviate greenhouse gas emissions. Inevitably, such functions may conflict with management for production of livestock products. Much of the increasing global demand for meat and milk, particularly from developing countries, will have to be supplied from grassland ecosystems, and this will provide difficult challenges. Increased production of meat and milk generally requires increased intake of metabolizable energy, and thus increased voluntary intake and/or digestibility of diets selected by grazing animals. These will require more widespread and effective application of improved management. Strategies to improve productivity include fertilizer application, grazing management, greater use of crop by-products, legumes and supplements and manipulation of stocking rate and herbage allowance. However, it is often difficult to predict the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of such strategies, particularly in tropical developing country production systems. Evaluation and on-going adjustment of grazing systems require appropriate and reliable assessment criteria, but these are often lacking. A number of emerging technologies may contribute to timely low-cost acquisition of quantitative information to better understand the soil-pasture-animal interactions and animal management in grassland systems. Development of remote imaging of vegetation, global positioning technology, improved diet markers, near IR spectroscopy and modelling provide improved tools for knowledge-based decisions on the productivity constraints of grazing animals. Individual electronic identification of animals offers opportunities for precision management on an individual animal basis for improved productivity. Improved outcomes in the form of livestock products, services and/or other outcomes from grasslands should be possible, but clearly a diversity of solutions are needed for the vast range of environments and social circumstances of global grasslands.

Identifying risk-efficient strategies using stochastic frontier analysis and simulation: An application to irrigated cropping in Australia

In irrigated cropping, as with any other industry, profit and risk are inter-dependent. An increase in profit would normally coincide with an increase in risk, and this means that risk can be traded for profit. It is desirable to manage a farm so that it achieves the maximum possible profit for the desired level of risk. This paper identifies risk-efficient cropping strategies that allocate land and water between crop enterprises for a case study of an irrigated farm in Southern Queensland, Australia. This is achieved by applying stochastic frontier analysis to the output of a simulation experiment. The simulation experiment involved changes to the levels of business risk by systematically varying the crop sowing rules in a bioeconomic model of the case study farm. This model utilises the multi-field capability of the process based Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM) and is parameterised using data collected from interviews with a collaborating farmer. We found sowing rules that increased the farm area sown to cotton caused the greatest increase in risk-efficiency. Increasing maize area also improved risk-efficiency but to a lesser extent than cotton. Sowing rules that increased the areas sown to wheat reduced the risk-efficiency of the farm business. Sowing rules were identified that had the potential to improve the expected farm profit by ca. $50,000 Annually, without significantly increasing risk. The concept of the shadow price of risk is discussed and an expression is derived from the estimated frontier equation that quantifies the trade-off between profit and risk.

Impact of nitrification inhibitor (DMPP) on soil nitrous oxide emissions from an intensive broccoli production system in sub-tropical Australia

Vegetable cropping systems are often characterised by high inputs of nitrogen fertiliser. Elevated emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) can be expected as a consequence. In order to mitigate N2O emissions from fertilised agricultural fields, the use of nitrification inhibitors, in combination with ammonium based fertilisers, has been promoted. However, no data is currently available on the use of nitrification inhibitors in sub-tropical vegetable systems. A field experiment was conducted to investigate the effect of the nitrification inhibitor 3,4-dimethylpyrazole phosphate (DMPP) on N2O emissions and yield from broccoli production in sub-tropical Australia. Soil N2O fluxes were monitored continuously (3 h sampling frequency) with fully automated, pneumatically operated measuring chambers linked to a sampling control system and a gas chromatograph. Cumulative N2O emissions over the 5 month observation period amounted to 298 g-N/ha, 324 g-N/ha, 411 g-N/ha and 463 g-N/ha in the conventional fertiliser (CONV), the DMPP treatment (DMPP), the DMMP treatment with a 10% reduced fertiliser rate (DMPP-red) and the zero fertiliser (0N), respectively. The temporal variation of N2O fluxes showed only low emissions over the broccoli cropping phase, but significantly elevated emissions were observed in all treatments following broccoli residues being incorporated into the soil. Overall 70–90% of the total emissions occurred in this 5 weeks fallow phase. There was a significant inhibition effect of DMPP on N2O emissions and soil mineral N content over the broccoli cropping phase where the application of DMPP reduced N2O emissions by 75% compared to the standard practice. However, there was no statistical difference between the treatments during the fallow phase or when the whole season was considered. This study shows that DMPP has the potential to reduce N2O emissions from intensive vegetable systems, but also highlights the importance of post-harvest emissions from incorporated vegetable residues. N2O mitigation strategies in vegetable systems need to target these post-harvest emissions and a better evaluation of the effect of nitrification inhibitors over the fallow phase is needed.