Time-dependent instantaneous mortality rates from multiple tagging experiments with exact times of release and recovery

Instantaneous natural mortality rates and a nonparametric hunting mortality function are estimated from a multiple-year tagging experiment with arbitrary, time-dependent fishing or hunting mortality. Our theory allows animals to be tagged over a range of times in each year, and to take time to mix into the population. Animals are recovered by hunting or fishing, and death events from natural causes occur but are not observed. We combine a long-standing approach based on yearly totals, described by Brownie et al. (1985, Statistical Inference from Band Recovery Data: A Handbook, Second edition, United States Fish and Wildlife Service, Washington, Resource Publication, 156), with an exact-time-of-recovery approach originated by Hearn, Sandland and Hampton (1987, Journal du Conseil International pour l'Exploration de la Mer, 43, 107-117), who modeled times at liberty without regard to time of tagging. Our model allows for exact times of release and recovery, incomplete reporting of recoveries, and potential tag shedding. We apply our methods to data on the heavily exploited southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii).

Graze to grain - measuring and modelling the effects of grazed pasture leys on soil nitrogen and sorghum yield on a Vertosol soil in the Australian subtropics

Highly productive sown pasture systems can result in high growth rates of beef cattle and lead to increases in soil nitrogen and the production of subsequent crops. The nitrogen dynamics and growth of grain sorghum following grazed annual legume leys or a grass pasture were investigated in a no-till system in the South Burnett district of Queensland. Two years of the tropical legumes Macrotyloma daltonii and Vigna trilobata (both self regenerating annual legumes) and Lablab purpureus (a resown annual legume) resulted in soil nitrate N (0-0.9 m depth), at sorghum sowing, ranging from 35 to 86 kg/ha compared with 4 kg/ha after pure grass pastures. Average grain sorghum production in the 4 cropping seasons following the grazed legume leys ranged from 2651 to 4012 kg/ha. Following the grass pasture, grain sorghum production in the first and second year was < 1900 kg/ha and by the third year grain yield was comparable to the legume systems. Simulation studies utilising the farming systems model APSIM indicated that the soil N and water dynamics following 2-year ley phases could be closely represented over 4 years and the prediction of sorghum growth during this time was reasonable. In simulated unfertilised sorghum crops grown from 1954 to 2004, grain yield did not exceed 1500 kg/ha in 50% of seasons following a grass pasture, while following 2-year legume leys, grain exceeded 3000 kg/ha in 80% of seasons. It was concluded that mixed farming systems that utilise short term legume-based pastures for beef production in rotation with crop production enterprises can be highly productive.

Assessing the sustainability of wheat-based cropping systems using APSIM: Model parameterisation and evaluation

Assessing the sustainability of crop and soil management practices in wheat-based rotations requires a well-tested model with the demonstrated ability to sensibly predict crop productivity and changes in the soil resource. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) suite of models was parameterised and subsequently used to predict biomass production, yield, crop water and nitrogen (N) use, as well as long-term soil water and organic matter dynamics in wheat/chickpea systems at Tel Hadya, north-western Syria. The model satisfactorily simulated the productivity and water and N use of wheat and chickpea crops grown under different N and/or water supply levels in the 1998-99 and 1999-2000 experimental seasons. Analysis of soil-water dynamics showed that the 2-stage soil evaporation model in APSIM's cascading water-balance module did not sufficiently explain the actual soil drying following crop harvest under conditions where unused water remained in the soil profile. This might have been related to evaporation from soil cracks in the montmorillonitic clay soil, a process not explicitly simulated by APSIM. Soil-water dynamics in wheat-fallow and wheat-chickpea rotations (1987-98) were nevertheless well simulated when the soil water content in 0-0.45 m soil depth was set to 'air dry' at the end of the growing season each year. The model satisfactorily simulated the amounts of NO3-N in the soil, whereas it underestimated the amounts of NH 4-N. Ammonium fixation might be part of the soil mineral-N dynamics at the study site because montmorillonite is the major clay mineral. This process is not simulated by APSIM's nitrogen module. APSIM was capable of predicting long-term trends (1985-98) in soil organic matter in wheat-fallow and wheat-chickpea rotations at Tel Hadya as reported in literature. Overall, results showed that the model is generic and mature enough to be extended to this set of environmental conditions and can therefore be applied to assess the sustainability of wheat-chickpea rotations at Tel Hadya.

Development of profitable milk production systems for northern Australia: a field assessment of the productivity of five potential farming systems using farmlets.

Farmlets, each of 20 cows, were established to field test five milk production systems and provide a learning platform for farmers and researchers in a subtropical environment. The systems were developed through desktop modelling and industry consultation in response to the need for substantial increases in farm milk production following deregulation of the industry. Four of the systems were based on grazing and the continued use of existing farmland resource bases, whereas the fifth comprised a feedlot and associated forage base developed as a greenfield site. The field evaluation was conducted over 4 years under more adverse environmental conditions than anticipated with below average rainfall and restrictions on irrigation. For the grazed systems, mean annual milk yield per cow ranged from 6330 kg/year (1.9 cows/ha) for a herd based on rain-grown tropical pastures to 7617 kg/year (3.0 cows/ha) where animals were based on temperate and tropical irrigated forages. For the feedlot herd, production of 9460 kg/cow.year (4.3 cows/ha of forage base) was achieved. For all herds, the level of production achieved required annual inputs of concentrates of similar to 3 t DM/animal and purchased conserved fodder from 0.3 to 1.5 t DM/animal. This level of supplementary feeding made a major contribution to total farm nutrient inputs, contributing 50% or more of the nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium entering the farming system, and presents challenges to the management of manure and urine that results from the higher stocking rates enabled. Mean annual milk production for the five systems ranged from 88 to 105% of that predicted by the desktop modelling. This level of agreement for the grazed systems was achieved with minimal overall change in predicted feed inputs; however, the feedlot system required a substantial increase in inputs over those predicted. Reproductive performance for all systems was poorer than anticipated, particularly over the summer mating period. We conclude that the desktop model, developed as a rapid response to assist farmers modify their current farming systems, provided a reasonable prediction of inputs required and milk production. Further model development would need to consider more closely climate variability, the limitations summer temperatures place on reproductive success and the feed requirements of feedlot herds.

Can sustainable cotton production systems be developed for tropical northern Australia?

This article reviews research coordinated by the Australian Cotton Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) that investigated production issues for irrigated cotton at five targeted sites in tropical northern Australia, north of 21°S from Broome in Western Australia to the Burdekin in Queensland. The biotic and abiotic issues for cotton production were investigated with the aim of defining the potential limitations and, where appropriate, building a sustainable technical foundation for a future industry if it were to follow. Key lessons from the Cotton CRC research effort were: (1) limitations thought to be associated with cotton production in northern Australia can be overcome by developing a deep understanding of biotic and environmental constraints, then tailoring and validating production practices; and (2) transplanting of southern farming practices without consideration of local pest, soil and climatic factors is unlikely to succeed. Two grower guides were published which synthesised the research for new growers into a rational blueprint for sustainable cotton production in each region. In addition to crop production and environmental impact issues, the project identified the following as key elements needed to establish new cropping regions in tropical Australia: rigorous quantification of suitable land and sustainable water yields; support from governments; a long-term funding model for locally based research; the inclusion of traditional owners; and development of human capacity.

Reconfiguring agriculture through the relocation of production systems for water, environment and food security under climate change

The prospect of climate change has revived both fears of food insecurity and its corollary, market opportunities for agricultural production. In Australia, with its long history of state-sponsored agricultural development, there is renewed interest in the agricultural development of tropical and sub-tropical northern regions. Climate projections suggest that there will be less water available to the main irrigation systems of the eastern central and southern regions of Australia, while net rainfall could be sustained or even increase in the northern areas. Hence, there could be more intensive use of northern agricultural areas, with the relocation of some production of economically important commodities such as vegetables, rice and cotton. The problem is that the expansion of cropping in northern Australia has been constrained by agronomic and economic considerations. The present paper examines the economics, at both farm and regional level, of relocating some cotton production from the east-central irrigation areas to the north where there is an existing irrigation scheme together with some industry and individual interest in such relocation. Integrated modelling and expert knowledge are used to examine this example of prospective climate change adaptation. Farm-level simulations show that without adaptation, overall gross margins will decrease under a combination of climate change and reduction in water availability. A dynamic regional Computable General Equilibrium model is used to explore two scenarios of relocating cotton production from south east Queensland, to sugar-dominated areas in northern Queensland. Overall, an increase in real economic output and real income was realized when some cotton production was relocated to sugar cane fallow land/new land. There were, however, large negative effects on regional economies where cotton production displaced sugar cane. It is concluded that even excluding the agronomic uncertainties, which are not examined here, there is unlikely to be significant market-driven relocation of cotton production.