Specific detection of the Old World screwworm fly, Chrysomya bezziana, in bulk fly trap catches using real-time PCR.

The Old World screwworm fly (OWS), Chrysomya bezziana Villeneuve (Diptera: Calliphoridae), is a myiasis-causing blowfly of major concern for both animals and humans. Surveillance traps are used in several countries for early detection of incursions and to monitor control strategies. Examination of surveillance trap catches is time-consuming and is complicated by the presence of morphologically similar flies that are difficult to differentiate from Ch. bezziana, especially when the condition of specimens is poor. A molecular-based method to confirm or refute the presence of Ch. bezziana in trap catches would greatly simplify monitoring programmes. A species-specific real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay was designed to target the ribosomal DNA internal transcribed spacer 1 (rDNA ITS1) of Ch. bezziana. The assay uses both species-specific primers and an OWS-specific Taqman MGB probe. Specificity was confirmed against morphologically similar and related Chrysomya and Cochliomyia species. An optimal extraction protocol was developed to process trap catches of up to 1000 flies and the assay is sensitive enough to detect one Ch. bezziana in a sample of 1000 non-target species. Blind testing of 29 trap catches from Australia and Malaysia detected Ch. bezziana with 100% accuracy. The probability of detecting OWS in a trap catch of 50 000 flies when the OWS population prevalence is low (one in 1000 flies) is 63.6% for one extraction. For three extractions (3000 flies), the probability of detection increases to 95.5%. The real-time PCR assay, used in conjunction with morphology, will greatly increase screening capabilities in surveillance areas where OWS prevalence is low.

Development of a model based on Bayesian networks to estimate the probability of sheep lice presence at shearing

This paper describes the development of a model, based on Bayesian networks, to estimate the likelihood that sheep flocks are infested with lice at shearing and to assist farm managers or advisers to assess whether or not to apply a lousicide treatment. The risk of lice comes from three main sources: (i) lice may have been present at the previous shearing and not eradicated; (ii) lice may have been introduced with purchased sheep; and (iii) lice may have entered with strays. A Bayesian network is used to assess the probability of each of these events independently and combine them for an overall assessment. Rubbing is a common indicator of lice but there are other causes too. If rubbing has been observed, an additional Bayesian network is used to assess the probability that lice are the cause. The presence or absence of rubbing and its possible cause are combined with these networks to improve the overall risk assessment.

Evaluating and validating abundance monitoring methods in the absence of populations of known size: review and application to a passive tracking index

Rarely is it possible to obtain absolute numbers in free-ranging populations and although various direct and indirect methods are used to estimate abundance, few are validated against populations of known size. In this paper, we apply grounding, calibration and verification methods, used to validate mathematical models, to methods of estimating relative abundance. To illustrate how this might be done, we consider and evaluate the widely applied passive tracking index (PTI) methodology. Using published data, we examine the rationality of PTI methodology, how conceptually animal activity and abundance are related and how alternative methods are subject to similar biases or produce similar abundance estimates and trends. We then attune the method against populations representing a range of densities likely to be encountered in the field. Finally, we compare PTI trends against a prediction that adjacent populations of the same species will have similar abundance values and trends in activity. We show that while PTI abundance estimates are subject to environmental and behavioural stochasticity peculiar to each species, the PTI method and associated variance estimate showed high probability of detection, high precision of abundance values and, generally, low variability between surveys, and suggest that the PTI method applied using this procedure and for these species provides a sensitive and credible index of abundance. This same or similar validation approach can and should be applied to alternative relative abundance methods in order to demonstrate their credibility and justify their use.

Beyond fecundity control: which weeds are most containable?

1. Eradication is often the preferred strategy in the management of new weed invasions, but recent research has shown that the circumstances under which eradication can be achieved are highly constrained. Containment is a component of an eradication strategy and also a management objective in its own right. Just as for eradication, containment of a weed invasion should be attempted only if it is considered feasible. However, very little guidance exists for the assessment of containment feasibility for weeds. 2. Numerous factors have been proposed as influencing feasibility of containment, but those that relate to the potential for management of dispersal pathways and timely detection of new foci of infestation appear to be critical. Theory suggests that the rate of spread is largely driven by long-distance dispersal (LDD). However, LDD is generally unpredictable and often occurs for species that do not appear to be adapted for it. Furthermore, many (if not most) LDD events fail to give rise to new infestations. 3. As the probability of colonisation is related to the numbers of propagules immigrating ('propagule pressure') at a point in the landscape, dispersal pathways that move relatively large numbers of propagules simultaneously and/or repeatedly should most enhance weed spread. It is these pathways whose potential for management has the greatest bearing upon containment feasibility. A key impediment to containment is undetected spread; this need not occur through LDD and is more likely to occur through dispersal to lesser distances. 4. Synthesis and applications. Feasibility of containment should be viewed in terms of the effort required to reduce weed spread rate, as well as the effectiveness of relevant management actions. Where dispersal vectors are not readily manageable and the probability of detection via structured and/or unstructured surveillance is low, a much greater reliance upon fecundity control will be needed to contain a weed. A combination of empirical and theoretical approaches should be used to develop and refine estimates of containment feasibility. Such estimates will aid decision-making with regard to whether to attempt to reduce weed spread and assist in prioritisation of different weeds for containment.

Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of early detection surveillance for plant pest invasions

Early detection surveillance programs aim to find invasions of exotic plant pests and diseases before they are too widespread to eradicate. However, the value of these programs can be difficult to justify when no positive detections are made. To demonstrate the value of pest absence information provided by these programs, we use a hierarchical Bayesian framework to model estimates of incursion extent with and without surveillance. A model for the latent invasion process provides the baseline against which surveillance data are assessed. Ecological knowledge and pest management criteria are introduced into the model using informative priors for invasion parameters. Observation models assimilate information from spatio-temporal presence/absence data to accommodate imperfect detection and generate posterior estimates of pest extent. When applied to an early detection program operating in Queensland, Australia, the framework demonstrates that this typical surveillance regime provides a modest reduction in the estimate that a surveyed district is infested. More importantly, the model suggests that early detection surveillance programs can provide a dramatic reduction in the putative area of incursion and therefore offer a substantial benefit to incursion management. By mapping spatial estimates of the point probability of infestation, the model identifies where future surveillance resources can be most effectively deployed.

Processes leading to the detection of tropical weed infestations during an eradication program.

The authors identify and track processes that have resulted in the detection of six tropical weeds targeted for eradication. The habitats and distributions of these species make detection by field officers and members of the public more likely than targeted searches. The eradication program is increasing the scope of detection processes by conducting and documenting activities to improve weed recognition amongst public, government and industry stakeholders.

Estimating Resource Requirements to Staff a Response to a Medium to Large Outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease in Australia

A recent report to the Australian Government identified concerns relating to Australia's capacity to respond to a medium to large outbreak of FMD. To assess the resources required, the AusSpread disease simulation model was used to develop a plausible outbreak scenario that included 62 infected premises in five different states at the time of detection, 28 days after the disease entered the first property in Victoria. Movements of infected animals and/or contaminated product/equipment led to smaller outbreaks in NSW, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania. With unlimited staff resources, the outbreak was eradicated in 63 days with 54 infected premises and a 98% chance of eradication within 3 months. This unconstrained response was estimated to involve 2724 personnel. Unlimited personnel was considered unrealistic, and therefore, the course of the outbreak was modelled using three levels of staffing and the probability of achieving eradication within 3 or 6 months of introduction determined. Under the baseline staffing level, there was only a 16% probability that the outbreak would be eradicated within 3 months, and a 60% probability of eradication in 6 months. Deployment of an additional 60 personnel in the first 3 weeks of the response increased the likelihood of eradication in 3 months to 68%, and 100% in 6 months. Deployment of further personnel incrementally increased the likelihood of timely eradication and decreased the duration and size of the outbreak. Targeted use of vaccination in high-risk areas coupled with the baseline personnel resources increased the probability of eradication in 3 months to 74% and to 100% in 6 months. This required 25 vaccination teams commencing 12 days into the control program increasing to 50 vaccination teams 3 weeks later. Deploying an equal number of additional personnel to surveillance and infected premises operations was equally effective in reducing the outbreak size and duration.

Modelling Mortality and Reproduction Rates for Management of Sheep Flocks in Northern Australia

By quantifying the effects of climatic variability in the sheep grazing lands of north western and western Queensland, the key biological rates of mortality and reproduction can be predicted for sheep. These rates are essential components of a decision support package which can prove a useful management tool for producers, especially if they can easily obtain the necessary predictors. When the sub-models of the GRAZPLAN ruminant biology process model were re-parameterised from Queensland data along with an empirical equation predicting the probability of ewes mating added, the process model predicted the probability of pregnancy well (86% variation explained). Predicting mortality from GRAZPLAN was less successful but an empirical equation based on relative condition of the animal (a measure based on liveweight), pregnancy status and age explained 78% of the variation in mortalities. A crucial predictor in these models was liveweight which is not often recorded on producer properties. Empirical models based on climatic and pasture conditions estimated from the pasture production model GRASP, predicted marking and mortality rates for Mitchell grass (Astrebla sp.) pastures (81% and 63% of the variation explained). These prediction equations were tested against independent data from producer properties and the model successfully validated for Mitchell grass communities.

Modelling climatic risks of aflatoxin contamination in maize

Aflatoxins are highly carcinogenic mycotoxins produced by two fungi, Aspergillus flavus and A. parasiticus, under specific moisture and temperature conditions before harvest and/or during storage of a wide range of crops including maize. Modelling of interactions between host plant and environment during the season can enable quantification of preharvest aflatoxin risk and its potential management. A model was developed to quantify climatic risks of aflatoxin contamination in maize using principles previously used for peanuts. The model outputs an aflatoxin risk index in response to seasonal temperature and soil moisture during the maize grain filling period using the APSIM's maize module. The model performed well in simulating climatic risk of aflatoxin contamination in maize as indicated by a significant R2 (P ≤ 0.01) between aflatoxin risk index and the measured aflatoxin B1 in crop samples, which was 0.69 for a range of rainfed Australian locations and 0.62 when irrigated locations were also included in the analysis. The model was further applied to determine probabilities of exceeding a given aflatoxin risk in four non-irrigated maize growing locations of Queensland using 106 years of historical climatic data. Locations with both dry and hot climates had a much higher probability of higher aflatoxin risk compared with locations having either dry or hot conditions alone. Scenario analysis suggested that under non-irrigated conditions the risk of aflatoxin contamination could be minimised by adjusting sowing time or selecting an appropriate hybrid to better match the grain filling period to coincide with lower temperature and water stress conditions.

Productivity and health effects of anaplasmosis and babesiosis on Bos indicus cattle and their crosses, and the effects of differing intensity of tick control in Australia

Tick fever is an important disease of cattle where Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus acts as a vector for the three causal organisms Babesia bovis, Babesia bigemina and Anaplasma marginale. Bos indicus cattle and their crosses are more resistant to the clinical effects of infection with B. bovis and B. bigemina than are Bos taurus cattle. Resistance is not complete, however, and herds of B. indicus-cross cattle are still at risk of babesiosis in environments where exposure to B. bovis is light in most years but occasionally high. The susceptibility of B. indicus cattle and their crosses to infection with A. marginale is similar to that of B. taurus cattle. In herds of B. indicus cattle and their crosses the infection rate of Babesia spp. and A. marginale is lowered because fewer ticks are likely to attach per day due to reduced numbers of ticks in the field (long-term effect on population, arising from high host resistance) and because a smaller proportion of ticks that do develop to feed on infected cattle will in turn be infected (due to lower parasitaemia). As a consequence, herds of B. indicus cattle are less likely than herds of B. taurus cattle to have high levels of population immunity to babesiosis or anaplasmosis. The effects of acaricide application on the probability of clinical disease due to anaplasmosis and babesiosis are unpredictable and dependent on the prevalence of infection in ticks and in cattle at the time of application. Attempting to manipulate population immunity through the toleration of specific threshold numbers of ticks with the aim of controlling tick fever is not reliable and the justification for acaricide application should be for the control of ticks rather than for tick fever. Vaccination of B. indicus cattle and their crosses is advisable in all areas where ticks exist, although vaccination against B. bigemina is probably not essential in pure B. indicus animals.

Absolute quantitation of Marek's disease virus and Herpesvirus of turkeys in chicken lymphocyte, feather tip and dust samples using real-time PCR

The further development of Taqman quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) assays for the absolute quantitation of Marek's disease virus serotype 1 (MDV1) and Herpesvirus of turkeys (HVT) viruses is described and the sensitivity and reproducibility of each assay reported. Using plasmid DNA copies, the lower limit of detection was determined to be 5 copies for the MDV1 assay and 75 copies for the HVT assay. Both assays were found to be highly reproducible for Ct values and calculated copy numbers with mean intra- and inter-assay coefficients of variation being less than 5% for Ct and 20% for calculated copy number. The genome copy number of MDV1 and HVT viruses was quantified in PBL and feather tips from experimentally infected chickens, and field poultry dust samples. Parallelism was demonstrated between the plasmid-based standard curves, and standard curves derived from infected spleen material containing both viral and host DNA, allowing the latter to be used for absolute quantification. These methods should prove useful for the reliable differentiation and absolute quantitation of MDV1 and HVT viruses in a wide range of samples.

Agonosoma trilineatum (Heteroptera: Scutelleridae) a biological control agent of the weed bellyache bush, Jatropha gossypiifolia (Euphorbiaceae)

Bellyache bush, Jatropha gossypiifolia L., is a serious weed of northern Australia. Agonosoma trilineatum (F.) is an insect from tropical America released in Australia in 2003 as a biological control agent against bellyache bush. It feeds on seeds and has the potential to reduce seed production, thereby potentially reducing the rate of spread and recruitment. To test the host specificity of A. trilineatum, four biological responses to host plant species were determined: development of nymphs, oviposition preferences, adult feeding and frequency of mating. Development of nymphs to adults and adult feeding only occurred on three Jatropha spp. These species also supported mating and oogenesis but only J. gossypiifolia was accepted for oviposition. Mating did not occur in the presence of other plant species. The evidence indicates that there is little risk associated with the release of this insect species in Australia and probably other countries where this weed is a problem. The probability of this insect expanding its host range is low because multiple aspects of the biology would need to change simultaneously. A. trilineatum was released in Australia between 2003 and 2007. A Climex model indicated that coastal areas of Queensland and the Northern Territory would be climatically most suitable for this insect.

Progress towards the eradication of mikania vine (Mikania micrantha) and limnocharis (Limnocharis flava) in northern Australia.

To eradicate a weed invasion, its extent must be delimited and each infestation must be extirpated. Measures for both of these criteria are utilized to assess the progress of current eradication programs targeting mikania vine and limnocharis in northern Australia. The known infested area for each species is less than 5 ha and has remained largely static for the last 3 or more years against a backdrop of refined and enhanced detection methods. This suggests that delimitation has been approached, if not achieved. Different methods of detection have their places, relative to the stage of the program and the spatial distribution of infestations. Although all known infestations of both species are effectively monitored and controlled, ongoing emergence from persistent seed banks limits progress towards the extirpation of infestations to a slow, but measurable, rate. Nomenclature: Glyphosate. N-phosphonomethyl)glycine; fluroxypyr, [(4-amino-3,5-dichloro-6-fluoro-2-pyridinyl)oxy]acetic acid; limnocharis, Limnocharis flava (L.) Buchenau LIFL5; mikania vine (mile-a-minute), Mikania micrantha Kunth MIKMI.

Defining and predicting the 'break of the season' for north-east Queensland grazing areas

For pasture growth in the semi-arid tropics of north-east Australia, where up to 80% of annual rainfall occurs between December and March, the timing and distribution of rainfall events is often more important than the total amount. In particular, the timing of the 'green break of the season' (GBOS) at the end of the dry season, when new pasture growth becomes available as forage and a live-weight gain is measured in cattle, affects several important management decisions that prevent overgrazing and pasture degradation. Currently, beef producers in the region use a GBOS rule based on rainfall (e. g. 40mm of rain over three days by 1 December) to define the event and make their management decisions. A survey of 16 beef producers in north-east Queensland shows three quarters of respondents use a rainfall amount that occurs in only half or less than half of all years at their location. In addition, only half the producers expect the GBOS to occur within two weeks of the median date calculated by the CSIRO plant growth days model GRIM. This result suggests that in the producer rules, either the rainfall quantity or the period of time over which the rain is expected, is unrealistic. Despite only 37% of beef producers indicating that they use a southern oscillation index (SOI) forecast in their decisions, cross validated LEPS (linear error in probability space) analyses showed both the average 3 month July-September SOI and the 2 month August-September SOI have significant forecast skill in predicting the probability of both the amount of wet season rainfall and the timing of the GBOS. The communication and implementation of a rigorous and realistic definition of the GBOS, and the likely impacts of anthropogenic climate change on the region are discussed in the context of the sustainable management of northern Australian rangelands.

Cassowary dispersal of the invasive pond apple in a tropical rainforest: the contribution of subordinate dispersal modes in invasion.

Dispersal is a significant determinant of the pattern and process of invasions; however, weed dispersal distances are rarely described and descriptions of dispersal kernels are completely lacking for vertebrate-dispersed weeds. Here, we describe dispersal kernels generated by a native disperser, the endangered southern cassowary (Casuarius casuarius, L.) for an invasive, tropical rainforest plant, pond apple (Annona glabra, L.). Pond apple is primarily water-dispersed and is managed as such. We consider whether cassowary dispersal, as a numerically subordinate dispersal mode, provides an additional dispersal service that may modify the invasion process. In infested areas, pond apple seed was common in cassowary dung. Gut passage had no effect on the probability of single seed germination but deposition in clumps or as whole fruits reduced the probability of germination below that of single seeds. Gut passage times ranged from 65 to 1675 min. Combined with cassowary movement data, this resulted in estimated dispersal distances of 12.5-5212 m, with a median distance of 387 m (quartile range 112-787 m). Native frugivores can be effective dispersers of weeds in rainforest and even terrestrial dispersers can provide long-distance dispersal. Importantly, though pond apple might be expected to be almost entirely dispersed downstream and along the margins of aquatic and marine habitats, cassowaries provide dispersal upstream and between drainages, leading to novel dispersal outcomes. Even through the provision of small quantities of novel dispersal outcomes, subordinate dispersal modes can play a significant role in determining invasion pattern and influence the ultimate success of control programs by providing dispersal to locations unattainable via the primary mode.