26 resultados para Prediction techniques

em eResearch Archive - Queensland Department of Agriculture


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BACKGROUND: In order to rapidly and efficiently screen potential biofuel feedstock candidates for quintessential traits, robust high-throughput analytical techniques must be developed and honed. The traditional methods of measuring lignin syringyl/guaiacyl (S/G) ratio can be laborious, involve hazardous reagents, and/or be destructive. Vibrational spectroscopy can furnish high-throughput instrumentation without the limitations of the traditional techniques. Spectral data from mid-infrared, near-infrared, and Raman spectroscopies was combined with S/G ratios, obtained using pyrolysis molecular beam mass spectrometry, from 245 different eucalypt and Acacia trees across 17 species. Iterations of spectral processing allowed the assembly of robust predictive models using partial least squares (PLS). RESULTS: The PLS models were rigorously evaluated using three different randomly generated calibration and validation sets for each spectral processing approach. Root mean standard errors of prediction for validation sets were lowest for models comprised of Raman (0.13 to 0.16) and mid-infrared (0.13 to 0.15) spectral data, while near-infrared spectroscopy led to more erroneous predictions (0.18 to 0.21). Correlation coefficients (r) for the validation sets followed a similar pattern: Raman (0.89 to 0.91), mid-infrared (0.87 to 0.91), and near-infrared (0.79 to 0.82). These statistics signify that Raman and mid-infrared spectroscopy led to the most accurate predictions of S/G ratio in a diverse consortium of feedstocks. CONCLUSION: Eucalypts present an attractive option for biofuel and biochemical production. Given the assortment of over 900 different species of Eucalyptus and Corymbia, in addition to various species of Acacia, it is necessary to isolate those possessing ideal biofuel traits. This research has demonstrated the validity of vibrational spectroscopy to efficiently partition different potential biofuel feedstocks according to lignin S/G ratio, significantly reducing experiment and analysis time and expense while providing non-destructive, accurate, global, predictive models encompassing a diverse array of feedstocks.

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High-throughput techniques are necessary to efficiently screen potential lignocellulosic feedstocks for the production of renewable fuels, chemicals, and bio-based materials, thereby reducing experimental time and expense while supplanting tedious, destructive methods. The ratio of lignin syringyl (S) to guaiacyl (G) monomers has been routinely quantified as a way to probe biomass recalcitrance. Mid-infrared and Raman spectroscopy have been demonstrated to produce robust partial least squares models for the prediction of lignin S/G ratios in a diverse group of Acacia and eucalypt trees. The most accurate Raman model has now been used to predict the S/G ratio from 269 unknown Acacia and eucalypt feedstocks. This study demonstrates the application of a partial least squares model composed of Raman spectral data and lignin S/G ratios measured using pyrolysis/molecular beam mass spectrometry (pyMBMS) for the prediction of S/G ratios in an unknown data set. The predicted S/G ratios calculated by the model were averaged according to plant species, and the means were not found to differ from the pyMBMS ratios when evaluating the mean values of each method within the 95 % confidence interval. Pairwise comparisons within each data set were employed to assess statistical differences between each biomass species. While some pairwise appraisals failed to differentiate between species, Acacias, in both data sets, clearly display significant differences in their S/G composition which distinguish them from eucalypts. This research shows the power of using Raman spectroscopy to supplant tedious, destructive methods for the evaluation of the lignin S/G ratio of diverse plant biomass materials.

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High-throughput techniques are necessary to efficiently screen potential lignocellulosic feedstocks for the production of renewable fuels, chemicals, and bio-based materials, thereby reducing experimental time and expense while supplanting tedious, destructive methods. The ratio of lignin syringyl (S) to guaiacyl (G) monomers has been routinely quantified as a way to probe biomass recalcitrance. Mid-infrared and Raman spectroscopy have been demonstrated to produce robust partial least squares models for the prediction of lignin S/G ratios in a diverse group of Acacia and eucalypt trees. The most accurate Raman model has now been used to predict the S/G ratio from 269 unknown Acacia and eucalypt feedstocks. This study demonstrates the application of a partial least squares model composed of Raman spectral data and lignin S/G ratios measured using pyrolysis/molecular beam mass spectrometry (pyMBMS) for the prediction of S/G ratios in an unknown data set. The predicted S/G ratios calculated by the model were averaged according to plant species, and the means were not found to differ from the pyMBMS ratios when evaluating the mean values of each method within the 95 % confidence interval. Pairwise comparisons within each data set were employed to assess statistical differences between each biomass species. While some pairwise appraisals failed to differentiate between species, Acacias, in both data sets, clearly display significant differences in their S/G composition which distinguish them from eucalypts. This research shows the power of using Raman spectroscopy to supplant tedious, destructive methods for the evaluation of the lignin S/G ratio of diverse plant biomass materials. © 2015, The Author(s).

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The Brix content of pineapple fruit can be non-invasively predicted from the second derivative of near infrared reflectance spectra. Correlations obtained using a NIRSystems 6500 spectrophotometer through multiple linear regression and modified partial least squares analyses using a post-dispersive configuration were comparable with that from a pre-dispersive configuration in terms of accuracy (e.g. coefficient of determination, R2, 0.73; standard error of cross validation, SECV, 1.01°Brix). The effective depth of sample assessed was slightly greater using the post-dispersive technique (about 20 mm for pineapple fruit), as expected in relation to the higher incident light intensity, relative to the pre-dispersive configuration. The effect of such environmental variables as temperature, humidity and external light, and instrumental variables such as the number of scans averaged to form a spectrum, were considered with respect to the accuracy and precision of the measurement of absorbance at 876 nm, as a key term in the calibration for Brix, and predicted Brix. The application of post-dispersive near infrared technology to in-line assessment of intact fruit in a packing shed environment is discussed.

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The widespread and increasing resistance of internal parasites to anthelmintic control is a serious problem for the Australian sheep and wool industry. As part of control programmes, laboratories use the Faecal Egg Count Reduction Test (FECRT) to determine resistance to anthelmintics. It is important to have confidence in the measure of resistance, not only for the producer planning a drenching programme but also for companies investigating the efficacy of their products. The determination of resistance and corresponding confidence limits as given in anthelmintic efficacy guidelines of the Standing Committee on Agriculture (SCA) is based on a number of assumptions. This study evaluated the appropriateness of these assumptions for typical data and compared the effectiveness of the standard FECRT procedure with the effectiveness of alternative procedures. Several sets of historical experimental data from sheep and goats were analysed to determine that a negative binomial distribution was a more appropriate distribution to describe pre-treatment helminth egg counts in faeces than a normal distribution. Simulated egg counts for control animals were generated stochastically from negative binomial distributions and those for treated animals from negative binomial and binomial distributions. Three methods for determining resistance when percent reduction is based on arithmetic means were applied. The first was that advocated in the SCA guidelines, the second similar to the first but basing the variance estimates on negative binomial distributions, and the third using Wadley’s method with the distribution of the response variate assumed negative binomial and a logit link transformation. These were also compared with a fourth method recommended by the International Co-operation on Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Registration of Veterinary Medicinal Products (VICH) programme, in which percent reduction is based on the geometric means. A wide selection of parameters was investigated and for each set 1000 simulations run. Percent reduction and confidence limits were then calculated for the methods, together with the number of times in each set of 1000 simulations the theoretical percent reduction fell within the estimated confidence limits and the number of times resistance would have been said to occur. These simulations provide the basis for setting conditions under which the methods could be recommended. The authors show that given the distribution of helminth egg counts found in Queensland flocks, the method based on arithmetic not geometric means should be used and suggest that resistance be redefined as occurring when the upper level of percent reduction is less than 95%. At least ten animals per group are required in most circumstances, though even 20 may be insufficient where effectiveness of the product is close to the cut off point for defining resistance.

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Traps baited with synthetic aggregation pheromone and fermenting bread dough were used to monitor seasonal incidence and abundance of the ripening fruit pests, Carpophilus hemipterus (L.), C. mutilatus Erichson and C. davidsoni Dobson in stone fruit orchards in the Leeton district of southern New South Wales during five seasons (1991-96). Adult beetles were trapped from September-May, but abundance varied considerably between years with the amount of rainfall in December-January having a major influence on population size and damage potential during the canning peach harvest (late February-March). Below average rainfall in December-January was associated with mean trap catches of < 10 beetles/trap/week in low dose pheromone traps during the harvest period in 1991/92 and 1993/94 and no reported damage to ripening fruit. Rainfall in December-January 1992/93 was more than double the average and mean trap catches ranged from 8-27 beetles/week during the harvest period with substantial damage to the peach crop. December-January rainfall was also above average in 1994/95 and 1995/96 and means of 50-300 beetles/trap/week were recorded in high dose pheromone traps during harvest periods. Carpophilus spp. caused economic damage to peach crops in both seasons. These data indicate that it may be possible to predict the likelihood of Carpophilus beetle damage to ripening stone fruit in inland areas of southern Australia, by routine pheromone-based monitoring of beetle populations and summer temperatures and rainfall.

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Near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) combined with multivariate analysis techniques was applied to assess phenol content of European oak. NIRS data were firstly collected directly from solid heartwood surfaces: in doing so, the spectra were recorded separately from the longitudinal radial and the transverse section surfaces by diffuse reflectance. The spectral data were then pretreated by several pre-processing procedures, such as multiplicative scatter correction, first derivative, second derivative and standard normal variate. The tannin contents of sawmill collected from the longitudinal radial and transverse section surfaces were determined by quantitative extraction with water/methanol (1:4, by vol). Then, total phenol contents in tannin extracts were measured by the Folin-Ciocalteu method. The NIR data were correlated against the Folin-Ciocalteu results. Calibration models built with partial least squares regression displayed strong correlation - as expressed by high determination correlation coefficient (r2) and high ratio of performance to deviation (RPD) - between measured and predicted total phenols content, and weak calibration and prediction errors (RMSEC, RMSEP). The best calibration was provided with second derivative spectra (r2 value of 0.93 for the longitudinal radial plane and of 0.91 for the transverse section plane). This study illustrates that the NIRS technique when used in conjunction with multivariate analysis could provide reliable, quick and non-destructive assessment of European oak heartwood extractives.

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Near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) can be used for the on-line, non-invasive assessment of fruit for eating quality attributes such as total soluble solids (TSS). The robustness of multivariate calibration models, based on NIRS in a partial transmittance optical geometry, for the assessment of TSS of intact rockmelons (Cucumis melo) was assessed. The mesocarp TSS was highest around the fruit equator and increased towards the seed cavity. Inner mesocarp TSS levels decreased towards both the proximal and distal ends of the fruit, but more so towards the proximal end. The equatorial region of the fruit was chosen as representative of the fruit for near infrared assessment of TSS. The spectral window for model development was optimised at 695-1045 nm, and the data pre-treatment procedure was optimised to second-derivative absorbance without scatter correction. The 'global' modified partial least squares (MPLS) regression modelling procedure of WINISI (ver. 1.04) was found to be superior with respect to root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) and bias for model predictions of TSS across seasons, compared with the 'local' MPLS regression procedure. Updating of the model with samples selected randomly from the independent validation population demonstrated improvement in both RMSEP and bias with addition of approximately 15 samples.

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Some whole leaf-clearing and staining techniques are described for the microscopic observation of the origin of powdery mildew conidiophores, whether from external mycelium or internal mycelium, emerging through stomata. These techniques enable separation of the two genera, Oidiopsis and Streptopodium, in the Erysiphaceae.

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Navua sedge, a member of the Cyperaceae family, is an aggressive weed of pastures in Fiji, Sri Lanka, Malay Peninsula, Vanuatu, Samoa, Solomons, and Tahiti and is now a weed of pastures and roadsides in north Queensland, Australia. Primarily restricted to areas with an annual rainfall exceeding 2500 mm, Navua sedge is capable of forming dense stands smothering many tropical pasture species. Seventeen herbicides were field tested at three sites in north Queensland, with glyphosate, halosulfuron, hexazinone, imazapic, imazapyr, or MSMA the most effective for Navua sedge control. Environmental problems such as persistence in soil, lack of selectivity and movement off-site may occur using some herbicides at the predicted LC90 control level rates. A seasonality trial using halosulfuron (97.5 g ai/ha) gave better Navua sedge control (84%) spraying March to September than spraying at other times (50%). In a frequency trial, sequential glyphosate applications (2,160 g ae/ha) every two months was more effective for continued Navua sedge control (67%) than a single application of glyphosate (36%), though loss of ground cover would occur. In a management trial, single applications of glyphosate (2,160 to 3,570 g ae/ha) using either a rope wick, ground foliar spraying or a rotary rope wick gave 59 to 73% control, while other treatments (rotary hoe (3%), slashing (-13%) or crushing (-30%)) were less effective. In a second management trial, four monthly rotary wick applications were much more effective (98%) than four monthly crushing applications (42%). An effective management plan must include the application of regular herbicide treatments to eliminate Navua sedge seed being added to the soil seed bank. Treatments that result in seed burial, for example, discing are likely to prolong seed persistence and should be avoided. The sprouting activity of vegetative propagules and root fragmentation needs to also be considered when selecting control options.

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This project was designed to provide the structural softwood processing industry with the basis for improved green and dry grading to allow maximise MGP grade yields, consistent product performance and reduced processing costs. To achieve this, advanced statistical techniques were used in conjunction with state-of-the-art property measurement systems. Specifically, the project aimed to make two significant steps forward for the Australian structural softwood industry: • assessment of technologies, both existing and novel, that may lead to selection of a consistent, reliable and accurate device for the log yard and green mill. The purpose is to more accurately identify and reject material that will not make a minimum grade of MGP10 downstream; • improved correlation of grading MOE and MOR parameters in the dry mill using new analytical methods and a combination of devices. The three populations tested were stiffness-limited radiata pine, strength-limited radiata pine and Caribbean pine. Resonance tests were conducted on logs prior to sawmilling, and on boards. Raw data from existing in-line systems were captured for the green and dry boards. The dataset was analysed using classical and advanced statistical tools to provide correlations between data sets and to develop efficient strength and stiffness prediction equations. Stiffness and strength prediction algorithms were developed from raw and combined parameters. Parameters were analysed for comparison of prediction capabilities using in-line parameters, off-line parameters and a combination of in-line and off-line parameters. The results show that acoustic resonance techniques have potential for log assessment, to sort for low stiffness and/or low strength, depending on the resource. From the log measurements, a strong correlation was found between the average static MOE of the dried boards within a log and the predicted value. These results have application in segregating logs into structural and non-structural uses. Some commercial technologies are already available for this application such as Hitman LG640. For green boards it was found that in-line and laboratory acoustic devices can provide a good prediction of dry static MOE and moderate prediction for MOR.There is high potential for segregating boards at this stage of processing. Grading after the log breakdown can improve significantly the effectiveness of the mill. Subsequently, reductions in non-structural volumes can be achieved. Depending on the resource it can be expected that a 5 to 8 % reduction in non structural boards won’t be dried with an associated saving of $70 to 85/m3. For dry boards, vibration and a standard Metriguard CLT/HCLT provided a similar level of prediction on stiffness limited resource. However, Metriguard provides a better strength prediction in strength limited resources (due to this equipment’s ability to measure local characteristics). The combination of grading equipment specifically for stiffness related predictors (Metriguard or vibration) with defect detection systems (optical or X-ray scanner) provides a higher level of prediction, especially for MOR. Several commercial technologies are already available for acoustic grading on board such those from Microtec, Luxscan, Falcon engineering or Dynalyse AB for example. Differing combinations of equipment, and their strategic location within the processing chain, can dramatically improve the efficiency of the mill, the level of which will vary depending of the resource. For example, an initial acoustic sorting on green boards combined with an optical scanner associated with an acoustic system for grading dry board can result in a large reduction of the proportion of low value low non-structural produced. The application of classical MLR on several predictors proved to be effective, in particular for MOR predictions. However, the usage of a modern statistics approach(chemometrics tools) such as PLS proved to be more efficient for improving the level of prediction. Compared to existing technologies, the results of the project indicate a good improvement potential for grading in the green mill, ahead of kiln drying and subsequent cost-adding processes. The next stage is the development and refinement of systems for this purpose.

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BACKGROUND: The inability to consistently guarantee internal quality of horticulture produce is of major importance to the primary producer, marketers and ultimately the consumer. Currently, commercial avocado maturity estimation is based on the destructive assessment of percentage dry matter (%DM), and sometimes percentage oil, both of which are highly correlated with maturity. In this study the utility of Fourier transform (FT) near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) was investigated for the first time as a non-invasive technique for estimating %DM of whole intact 'Hass' avocado fruit. Partial least squares regression models were developed from the diffuse reflectance spectra to predict %DM, taking into account effects of intra-seasonal variation and orchard conditions. RESULTS: It was found that combining three harvests (early, mid and late) from a single farm in the major production district of central Queensland yielded a predictive model for %DM with a coefficient of determination for the validation set of 0.76 and a root mean square error of prediction of 1.53% for DM in the range 19.4-34.2%. CONCLUSION: The results of the study indicate the potential of FT-NIRS in diffuse reflectance mode to non-invasively predict %DM of whole 'Hass' avocado fruit. When the FT-NIRS system was assessed on whole avocados, the results compared favourably against data from other NIRS systems identified in the literature that have been used in research applications on avocados.

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Khaya senegalensis, African mahogany, a high-value hardwood, was introduced in the Northern Territory (NT) in the 1950s; included in various trials there and at Weipa, Q in the 1960s-1970s; planted on ex mine sites at Weipa (160 ha) until 1985; revived in farm plantings in Queensland and in trials in the NT in the 1990s; adopted for large-scale, annual planting in the Douglas-Daly region, NT from 2006 and is to have the planted area in the NT extended to at least 20,000 ha. The recent serious interest from plantation growers, including Forest Enterprises Australia Ltd (FEA), has seen the establishment of some large scale commercial plantations. FEA initiated the current study to process relatively young plantation stands from both Northern Territory and Queensland plantations to investigate the sawn wood and veneer recovery and quality from trees ranging from 14 years (NT – 36 trees) to 18-20 years (North Queensland – 31 trees). Field measures of tree size and straightness were complemented with log end splitting assessment and cross-sectional disc sample collection for laboratory wood properties measurements including colour and shrinkage. End-splitting scores assessed on sawn logs were relatively low compared to fast grown plantation eucalypts and did not impact processing negatively. Heartwood proportion in individual trees ranged from 50% up to 92 % of butt cross-sectional disc area for the visually-assessed dark coloured central heartwood and lighter coloured transition wood combined. Dark central heartwood proportion was positively related to tree size (R2 = 0.57). Chemical tests failed to assist in determining heartwood – sapwood boundary. Mean basic density of whole disc samples was 658 kg/m3 and ranged among trees from 603 to 712 kg/m3. When freshly sawn, the heartwood of African mahogany was orange-red to red. Transition wood appeared to be pinkish and the sapwood was a pale yellow colour. Once air dried the heartwood colour generally darkens to pinkish-brown or orange-brown and the effect of prolonged time and sun exposure is to darken and change the heartwood to a red-brown colour. A portable colour measurement spectrophotometer was used to objectively assess colour variation in CIE L*, a* and b* values over time with drying and exposure to sunlight. Capacity to predict standard colour values accurately after varying periods of direct sunlight exposure using results obtained on initial air-dried surfaces decreased with increasing time to sun exposure. The predictions are more accurate for L* values which represent brightness than for variation in the a* values (red spectrum). Selection of superior breeding trees for colour is likely to be based on dried samples exposed to sunlight to reliably highlight wood colour differences. A generally low ratio between tangential and radial shrinkages was found, which was reflected in a low incidence of board distortion (particularly cupping) during drying. A preliminary experiment was carried out to investigate the quality of NIR models to predict shrinkage and density. NIR spectra correlated reasonably well with radial shrinkage and air dried density. When calibration models were applied to their validation sets, radial shrinkage was predicted to an accuracy of 76% with Standard Error of Prediction of 0.21%. There was also a strong predictive power for wood density. These are encouraging results suggesting that NIR spectroscopy has good potential to be used as a non-destructive method to predict shrinkage and wood density using 12mm diameter increment core samples. Average green off saw recovery was 49.5% (range 40 to 69%) for Burdekin Agricultural College (BAC) logs and 41.9% (range 20 to 61%) for Katherine (NT) logs. These figures are about 10% higher than compared to 30-year-old Khaya study by Armstrong et al. (2007) however they are inflated as the green boards were not docked to remove wane prior to being tallied. Of the recovered sawn, dried and dressed volume from the BAC logs, based on the cambial face of boards, 27% could potentially be used for select grade, 40% for medium feature grade and 26% for high feature grades. The heart faces had a slightly higher recovery of select (30%) and medium feature (43%) grade boards with a reduction in the volume of high feature (22%) and reject (6%) grade boards. Distribution of board grades for the NT site aged 14 years followed very similar trends to those of the BAC site boards with an average (between facial and cambial face) 27% could potentially be used for select grade, 42% for medium feature grade, 26% for high feature grade and 5% reject. Relatively to some other subtropical eucalypts, there was a low incidence of borer attack. The major grade limiting defects for both medium and high feature grade boards recovered from the BAC site were knots and wane. The presence of large knots may reflect both management practices and the nature of the genetic material at the site. This stand was not managed for timber production with a very late pruning implemented at about age 12 years. The large amount of wane affected boards is indicative of logs with a large taper and the presence of significant sweep. Wane, knots and skip were the major grade limiting defects for the NT site reflecting considerable amounts of sweep with large taper as might be expected in younger trees. The green veneer recovered from billets of seven Khaya trees rotary peeled on a spindleless lathe produced a recovery of 83% of green billet volume. Dried veneer recovery ranged from 40 to 74 % per billet with an average of 64%. All of the recovered grades were suitable for use in structural ply in accordance to AS/NZ 2269: 2008. The majority of veneer sheets recovered from all billets was C grade (27%) with 20% making D grade and 13% B grade. Total dry sliced veneer recovery from the logs of the two largest logs from each location was estimated to be 41.1%. Very positive results have been recorded in this small scale study. The amount of colour development observed and the very reasonable recoveries of both sawn and veneer products, with a good representation of higher grades in the product distribution, is encouraging. The prospects for significant improvement in these results from well managed and productive stands grown for high quality timber should be high. Additionally, the study has shown the utility of non-destructive evaluation techniques for use in tree improvement programs to improve the quality of future plantations. A few trees combined several of the traits desired of individuals for a first breeding population. Fortunately, the two most promising trees (32, 19) had already been selected for breeding on external traits, and grafts of them are established in the seed orchard.

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This Sheep CRC2 project is directed towards regional development of, support for, commercialisation and target adoption of, new integrated management techniques, which will lift productivity and better match product with market specification. The outputs and benefits will help support and improve the productivity and profitability of producers remaining in the industry, and support industry in the current move towards one in which both meat and wool will be joint drivers of industry productivity.

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Determining Optimum Irrigation Scheduling Techniques for Key Wildflower Crops.