23 resultados para Predicting future earnings growth

em eResearch Archive - Queensland Department of Agriculture


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Cat’s claw creeper vine, Dolichandra unguis-cati (L.) Lohmann (syn. Macfadyena unguis-cati (L.) Gentry), is a major environmental weed in Australia. Two forms of the weed with distinctive leaf morphology and reproductive traits, including varying fruit size, occur in Queensland, Australia. The long pod form occurs in a few localities in Queensland, while the short pod form is widely distributed in Queensland and northern part of New South Wales. This investigation aimed to evaluate germination behavior and occurrence of polyembryony (production of multiple seedlings from a single seed) in the two forms of the weed. Seeds were germinated in growth chambers set to 10/20°C, 15/25°C, 20/30°C, 30/45°C and 25°C, representing ambient temperature conditions of the region. Germination and polyembryony were monitored over a period of 12 weeks. For all the treatments in this study, seeds from short pod plants exhibited significantly higher germination rates and higher occurrence of polyembryony than those from long pod plants. Seeds from long pod plants did not germinate at the lowest temperature of 10/20°C; in contrast, those of the short pod form germinated under this condition, albeit at a lower rate (reaching a maximum 45% germination at week 12). Results from this study could explain why the short pod form of D. unguis-cati is the more widely distributed plants in Australia, while the long pod is confined to a few localities. The results have implication in predicting future range of both forms of the invasive D. unguis-cati, as well as inform management decisions for control of the weed.

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Context. Irregular plagues of house mice cause high production losses in grain crops in Australia. If plagues can be forecast through broad-scale monitoring or model-based prediction, then mice can be proactively controlled by poison baiting. Aims. To predict mouse plagues in grain crops in Queensland and assess the value of broad-scale monitoring. Methods. Regular trapping of mice at the same sites on the Darling Downs in southern Queensland has been undertaken since 1974. This provides an index of abundance over time that can be related to rainfall, crop yield, winter temperature and past mouse abundance. Other sites have been trapped over a shorter time period elsewhere on the Darling Downs and in central Queensland, allowing a comparison of mouse population dynamics and cross-validation of models predicting mouse abundance. Key results. On the regularly trapped 32-km transect on the Darling Downs, damaging mouse densities occur in 50% of years and a plague in 25% of years, with no detectable increase in mean monthly mouse abundance over the past 35 years. High mouse abundance on this transect is not consistently matched by high abundance in the broader area. Annual maximum mouse abundance in autumn–winter can be predicted (R2 = 57%) from spring mouse abundance and autumn–winter rainfall in the previous year. In central Queensland, mouse dynamics contrast with those on the Darling Downs and lack the distinct annual cycle, with peak abundance occurring in any month outside early spring.Onaverage, damaging mouse densities occur in 1 in 3 years and a plague occurs in 1 in 7 years. The dynamics of mouse populations on two transects ~70 km apart were rarely synchronous. Autumn–winter rainfall can indicate mouse abundance in some seasons (R2 = ~52%). Conclusion. Early warning of mouse plague formation in Queensland grain crops from regional models should trigger farm-based monitoring. This can be incorporated with rainfall into a simple model predicting future abundance that will determine any need for mouse control. Implications. A model-based warning of a possible mouse plague can highlight the need for local monitoring of mouse activity, which in turn could trigger poison baiting to prevent further mouse build-up.

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Cabomba caroliniana is a submersed macrophyte that has become a serious invader. Cabomba predominantly spreads by stem fragments, in particular through unintentional transport on boat trailers ('hitch hiking'). Desiccation resistance affects the potential dispersal radius. Therefore, knowledge of maximum survival times allows predicting future dispersal. Experiments were conducted to assess desiccation resistance and survival ability of cabomba fragments under various environmental scenarios. Cabomba fragments were highly tolerant of desiccation. However, even relatively low wind speeds resulted in rapid mass loss, indicating a low survival rate of fragments exposed to air currents, such as fragments transported on a boat trailer. The experiments indicated that cabomba could survive at least 3 h of overland transport if exposed to wind. However, even small clumps of cabomba could potentially survive up to 42 h. Thus, targeting the transport of clumps of macrophytes should receive high priority in management. The high resilience of cabomba to desiccation demonstrates the risk of continuing spread. Because of the high probability of fragment viability on arrival, preventing fragment uptake on boat trailers is paramount to reduce the risk of further spread. These findings will assist improving models that predict the spread of aquatic invasive macrophytes.

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Cabomba caroliniana is a submersed macrophyte that has become a serious invader. Cabomba predominantly spreads by stem fragments, in particular through unintentional transport on boat trailers (‘hitch hiking’). Desiccation resistance affects the potential dispersal radius. Therefore, knowledge of maximum survival times allows predicting future dispersal. Experiments were conducted to assess desiccation resistance and survival ability of cabomba fragments under various environmental scenarios. Cabomba fragments were highly tolerant of desiccation. However, even relatively low wind speeds resulted in rapid mass loss, indicating a low survival rate of fragments exposed to air currents, such as fragments transported on a boat trailer. The experiments indicated that cabomba could survive at least 3 h of overland transport if exposed to wind. However, even small clumps of cabomba could potentially survive up to 42 h. Thus, targeting the transport of clumps of macrophytes should receive high priority in management. The high resilience of cabomba to desiccation demonstrates the risk of continuing spread. Because of the high probability of fragment viability on arrival, preventing fragment uptake on boat trailers is paramount to reduce the risk of further spread. These findings will assist improving models that predict the spread of aquatic invasive macrophytes.

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Cabomba caroliniana is a submersed macrophyte that has become a serious invader. Cabomba predominantly spreads by stem fragments, in particular through unintentional transport on boat trailers ('hitch hiking'). Desiccation resistance affects the potential dispersal radius. Therefore, knowledge of maximum survival times allows predicting future dispersal. Experiments were conducted to assess desiccation resistance and survival ability of cabomba fragments under various environmental scenarios. Cabomba fragments were highly tolerant of desiccation. However, even relatively low wind speeds resulted in rapid mass loss, indicating a low survival rate of fragments exposed to air currents, such as fragments transported on a boat trailer. The experiments indicated that cabomba could survive at least 3 h of overland transport if exposed to wind. However, even small clumps of cabomba could potentially survive up to 42 h. Thus, targeting the transport of clumps of macrophytes should receive high priority in management. The high resilience of cabomba to desiccation demonstrates the risk of continuing spread. Because of the high probability of fragment viability on arrival, preventing fragment uptake on boat trailers is paramount to reduce the risk of further spread. These findings will assist improving models that predict the spread of aquatic invasive macrophytes.

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We investigated whether plasticity in growth responses to nutrients could predict invasive potential in aquatic plants by measuring the effects of nutrients on growth of eight non-invasive native and six invasive exotic aquatic plant species. Nutrients were applied at two levels, approximating those found in urbanized and relatively undisturbed catchments, respectively. To identify systematic differences between invasive and non-invasive species, we compared the growth responses (total biomass, root:shoot allocation, and photosynthetic surface area) of native species with those of related invasive species after 13 weeks growth. The results were used to seek evidence of invasive potential among four recently naturalized species. There was evidence that invasive species tend to accumulate more biomass than native species (P = 0.0788). Root:shoot allocation did not differ between native and invasive plant species, nor was allocation affected by nutrient addition. However, the photosynthetic surface area of invasive species tended to increase with nutrients, whereas it did not among native species (P = 0.0658). Of the four recently naturalized species, Hydrocleys nymphoides showed the same nutrient-related plasticity in photosynthetic area displayed by known invasive species. Cyperus papyrus showed a strong reduction in photosynthetic area with increased nutrients. H. nymphoides and C. papyrus also accumulated more biomass than their native relatives. H. nymphoides possesses both of the traits we found to be associated with invasiveness, and should thus be regarded as likely to be invasive.

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Instances of morbidity amongst rock lobsters (Panulirus cygnus) arriving at factories in Western Australia (WA) have been attributed to stress during post-harvest handling. This study used discriminant analysis to determine whether physiological correlates of stress following a period of simulated post-harvest handling had any validity as predictors of future rejection or morbidity of western rock lobsters. Groups of 230 western rock lobsters were stored for 6 h in five environments (submerged/flowing sea water, submerged/re-circulating sea water, humid air, flowing sea water spray, and re-circulated sea water spray). The experiment was conducted in late spring (ambient sea water 22°C), and repeated again in early autumn (ambient sea water 26°C). After 6 h treatment, each lobster was graded for acceptability for live export, numbered, and its hemolymph was sampled. The samples were analysed for a number of physiological and health status parameters. The lobsters were then stored for a week in tanks in the live lobster factory to record mortality. The mortality of lobsters in the factory was associated with earlier deviations in hemolymph parameters as they emerged from the storage treatments. Discriminant analysis (DA) of the hemolymph assays enabled the fate of 80-90% of the lobsters to be correctly categorised within each experiment. However, functions derived from one experiment were less accurate at predicting mortality when applied to the other experiments. One of the reasons for this was the higher mortality and the more severe patho-physiological changes observed in lobsters stored in humid air or sprays at the higher temperature. The analysis identified lactate accumulation during emersion and associated physiological and hemocyte-related effects as a major correlate of mortality. Reducing these deviations, for example by submerged transport, is expected to ensure high levels of survival. None of the indicators tested predicted mortality with total accuracy. The simplest and most accurate means of comparing emersed treatments was to count the mortality afterwards.

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In order to develop an efficient and reliable biolistics transformation system for pineapples parameters need to be optimised for growth, survival and development of explants pre- and post transformation. We have optimised in vitro conditions for culture media for the various stages of plant and callus initiation and development, and for effective selection of putative transgenic material. Shoot multiplication and proliferation is best on medium containing MS basic nutrients and vitamins with the addition of 0.1 mg/L myo-inositol, 20 g/L sucrose, 2.5 mg/L BAP and 3 g/L Phytagel, followed by transfer to basic MS medium for further development. Callus production on leaf base explants is best on MS nutrients and vitamins, to which 10 mg/L of BAP and NAA each was added. Optimum explant age for bombardment is 17-35 week old callus, while a pre-bombardment osmoticum treatment in the medium is not required. By comparing several antibiotics as selective agent, it has been established that a two-step selection of 2 fortnightly sub-cultures on 50 μg/mL of geneticin in the culture medium, followed by monthly sub-cultures on 100 μg/mL geneticin is optimal for survival of transgenic callus. Shoot regeneration from callus cultures is optimal on medium containing MS nutrients and vitamins, 5% coconut water and 400 mg/L casein hydrolysate. Plants can be readily regenerated and multiplied from transgenic callus through organogenesis. Rooting of shoots does not require any additional plant hormones to the medium. A transformation efficiency of 1 – 3.5% can be achieved, depending on the gene construct applied.

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A decision support system has been developed in Queensland to evaluate how changes in silvicultural regimes affect wood quality, and specifically the graded recovery of structural timber. Models of tree growth, branch architecture and wood properties were developed from data collected in routine Caribbean pine plantations and specific silvicultural experiments. These models were incorporated in software that simulates the conversion of standing trees into logs, and the logs into boards, and generates detailed data on knot location and basic density distribution. The structural grade of each board was determined by simulating the machine stress-grading process, and the predicted graded recovery provided an indicator of wood value. The decision support system improves the basis of decision-making by simulating the performance of elite genetic material under specified silvicultural regimes and by predicting links between wood quality and general stand attributes such as stocking and length of rotation.

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Despite an abundance of polyembryonic genotypes and the need for rootstocks that improve scion yield and productivity, simultaneous field testing of a wide range of mango (Mangifera indica L.) genotypes as rootstocks has not previously been reported. In this experiment, we examined the growth and yield of 'Kensington Pride' on 64 mango genotypes of diverse origin during the first four seasons of fruit production to identify those worth longer-term assessment. We also recorded morphological characteristics of seedlings of 46 of these genotypes in an attempt to relate these measures to subsequent field performance. Tree canopy development on the most vigorous rootstocks was almost double that on the least vigorous. Growth rates differed by more than 160%. Cumulative marketable yield ranged from 36 kg/tree for the lowest yielding rootstock to 181 kg/tree for the most productive. Yield efficiency also differed markedly among the 64 rootstocks with the best treatment being 3.5 times more efficient than the poorest treatment. No relationship was found between yield efficiency and tree size, suggesting it is possible to select highly efficient rootstocks of differing vigor. Two genotypes ('Brodie' and 'MYP') stood out as providing high yield efficiency with small tree size. A further two genotypes ('B' and 'Watertank') were identified as offering high yield efficiency and large tree size and should provide high early yields at traditional tree spacing. Efforts to relate the morphology of different genotype seedlings to subsequent performance as a rootstock showed that nursery performance of mango seedlings is no indication of their likely behavior as a rootstock. The economic cost of poor yields and low yield efficiencies during the early years of commercial orchard production provide a rationale for culling many of the rootstock treatments in this experiment and concentrating future assessment on the top ~20% of the 64 treatments. Of these, 'MYP', 'B', 'Watertank', 'Manzano', and 'Pancho' currently show the most promise.

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Liquid forms of phosphorus (P) have been shown to be more effective than granular P for promoting cereal growth in alkaline soils with high levels of free calcium carbonate on Eyre Peninsula, South Australia. However, the advantage of liquid over granular P forms of fertiliser has not been fully investigated across the wide range of soils used for grain production in Australia. A glasshouse pot experiment tested if liquid P fertilisers were more effective for growing spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) than granular P (monoammonium phosphate) in 28 soils from all over Australia with soil pH (H2O) ranging from 5.2 to 8.9. Application of liquid P resulted in greater shoot biomass, as measured after 4 weeks' growth (mid to late tillering, Feeks growth stage 2-3), than granular P in 3 of the acidic to neutral soils and in 3 alkaline soils. Shoot dry matter responses of spring wheat to applied liquid or granular P were related to soil properties to determine if any of the properties predicted superior yield responses to liquid P. The calcium carbonate content of soil was the only soil property that significantly contributed to predicting when liquid P was more effective than granular P. Five soil P test procedures (Bray, Colwell, resin, isotopically exchangeable P, and diffusive gradients in thin films (DGT)) were assessed to determine their ability to measure soil test P on subsamples of soil collected before the experiment started. These soil test values were then related to the dry matter shoot yields to assess their ability to predict wheat yield responses to P applied as liquid or granular P. All 5 soil test procedures provided a reasonable prediction of dry matter responses to applied P as either liquid or granular P, with the resin P test having a slightly greater predictive capacity on the range of soils tested. The findings of this investigation suggest that liquid P fertilisers do have some potential applications in non-calcareous soils and confirm current recommendations for use of liquid P fertiliser to grow cereal crops in highly calcareous soils. Soil P testing procedures require local calibration for response to the P source that is going to be used to amend P deficiency.

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For pasture growth in the semi-arid tropics of north-east Australia, where up to 80% of annual rainfall occurs between December and March, the timing and distribution of rainfall events is often more important than the total amount. In particular, the timing of the 'green break of the season' (GBOS) at the end of the dry season, when new pasture growth becomes available as forage and a live-weight gain is measured in cattle, affects several important management decisions that prevent overgrazing and pasture degradation. Currently, beef producers in the region use a GBOS rule based on rainfall (e. g. 40mm of rain over three days by 1 December) to define the event and make their management decisions. A survey of 16 beef producers in north-east Queensland shows three quarters of respondents use a rainfall amount that occurs in only half or less than half of all years at their location. In addition, only half the producers expect the GBOS to occur within two weeks of the median date calculated by the CSIRO plant growth days model GRIM. This result suggests that in the producer rules, either the rainfall quantity or the period of time over which the rain is expected, is unrealistic. Despite only 37% of beef producers indicating that they use a southern oscillation index (SOI) forecast in their decisions, cross validated LEPS (linear error in probability space) analyses showed both the average 3 month July-September SOI and the 2 month August-September SOI have significant forecast skill in predicting the probability of both the amount of wet season rainfall and the timing of the GBOS. The communication and implementation of a rigorous and realistic definition of the GBOS, and the likely impacts of anthropogenic climate change on the region are discussed in the context of the sustainable management of northern Australian rangelands.

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Varying the spatial distribution of applied nitrogen (N) fertilizer to match demand in crops has been shown to increase profits in Australia. Better matching the timing of N inputs to plant requirements has been shown to improve nitrogen use efficiency and crop yields and could reduce nitrous oxide emissions from broad acre grains. Farmers in the wheat production area of south eastern Australia are increasingly splitting N application with the second timing applied at stem elongation (Zadoks 30). Spectral indices have shown the ability to detect crop canopy N status but a robust method using a consistent calibration that functions across seasons has been lacking. One spectral index, the canopy chlorophyll content index (CCCI) designed to detect canopy N using three wavebands along the "red edge" of the spectrum was combined with the canopy nitrogen index (CNI), which was developed to normalize for crop biomass and correct for the N dilution effect of crop canopies. The CCCI-CNI index approach was applied to a 3-year study to develop a single calibration derived from a wheat crop sown in research plots near Horsham, Victoria, Australia. The index was able to predict canopy N (g m-2) from Zadoks 14-37 with an r2 of 0.97 and RMSE of 0.65 g N m-2 when dry weight biomass by area was also considered. We suggest that measures of N estimated from remote methods use N per unit area as the metric and that reference directly to canopy %N is not an appropriate method for estimating plant concentration without first accounting for the N dilution effect. This approach provides a link to crop development rather than creating a purely numerical relationship. The sole biophysical input, biomass, is challenging to quantify robustly via spectral methods. Combining remote sensing with crop modelling could provide a robust method for estimating biomass and therefore a method to estimate canopy N remotely. Future research will explore this and the use of active and passive sensor technologies for use in precision farming for targeted N management.

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Spotted gum dominant forests occur from Cooktown in northern Queensland (Qld) to Orbost in Victoria (Boland et al. 2006) and these forests are commercially very important with spotted gum the most commonly harvested hardwood timber in Qld and one of the most important in New South Wales (NSW). Spotted gum has a wide range of end uses from solid wood products through to power transmission poles and generally has excellent sawing and timber qualities (Hopewell 2004). The private native forest resource in southern Qld and northern NSW is a critical component of the hardwood timber industry (Anon 2005, Timber Qld 2006) and currently half or more of the native forest timber resource harvested in northern NSW and Qld is sourced from private land. However, in many cases productivity on private lands is well below what could be achieved with appropriate silvicultural management. This project provides silvicultural management tools to assist extension staff, land owners and managers in the south east Qld and north eastern NSW regions. The intent was that this would lead to improvement of the productivity of the private estate through implementation of appropriate management. The other intention of this project was to implement a number of silvicultural experiments and demonstration sites to provide data on growth rates of managed and unmanaged forests so that landholders can make informed decisions on the future management of their forests. To assist forest managers and improve the ability to predict forest productivity in the private resource, the project has developed: • A set of spotted gum specific silvicultural guidelines for timber production on private land that cover both silvicultural treatment and harvesting. The guidelines were developed for extension officers and property owners. • A simple decision support tool, referred to as the spotted gum productivity assessment tool (SPAT), that allows an estimation of: 1. Tree growth productivity on specific sites. Estimation is based on the analysis of site and growth data collected from a large number of yield and experimental plots on Crown land across a wide range of spotted gum forest types. Growth algorithms were developed using tree growth and site data and the algorithms were used to formulate basic economic predictors. 2. Pasture development under a range of tree stockings and the expected livestock carrying capacity at nominated tree stockings for a particular area. 3. Above-ground tree biomass and carbon stored in trees. •A series of experiments in spotted gum forests on private lands across the study area to quantify growth and to provide measures of the effect of silvicultural thinning and different agro-forestry regimes. The adoption and use of these tools by farm forestry extension officers and private land holders in both field operations and in training exercises will, over time, improve the commercial management of spotted gum forests for both timber and grazing. Future measurement of the experimental sites at ages five, 10 and 15 years will provide longer term data on the effects of various stocking rates and thinning regimes and facilitate modification and improvement of these silvicultural prescriptions.

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The strategic objectives of Turf Australia (formerly the Turf Producers Association (TPA)) relating to water use in turf are to: • Source and collate information to support the case for adequate access to water for the Turf production and maintenance sectors and • Compile information generated into a convincing communication package that can be readily used by the industry in its advocacy programs (to government, regulators, media etc) More specifically, the turfgrass industry needs unbiased scientific evidence of the value of healthy grass in our environment. It needs to promote the use of adequate water even during drought periods to maintain quality turfgrass, which provides many benefits to the broader community including cooling the environment, saving energy and encouraging healthy lifestyles. The many environmental, social and health benefits of living turfgrass have been the subject of numerous investigations beyond the scope of this review. However further research is needed to fully understand the economic returns achievable by the judicious use of water for the maintenance of healthy turfgrass. Consumer education, backed by scientific evidence will highlight the “false economy” in allowing turfgrass to wither and die during conditions which require high level water restrictions. This report presents a review of the literature pertaining to research in the field of turf water use. The purpose of the review was to better understand the scope and nature of existing research results on turf water relations so that knowledge gaps could be identified in achieving the above strategic objectives of the TPA. Research to date has been found to be insufficient to compile a convincing communication package as described. However, identified knowledge gaps can now be addressed through targeted research. Information derived from targeted research will provide valuable material for education of the end user of turfgrass. Recommendations have been developed, based on the results of this desktop review. It was determined that future research in the field of turf irrigation needs to focus on a number of key factors which directly or indirectly affect the relationship between turfgrass and water use. These factors are: • Climate • Cultivar • Quality • Site use requirements • Establishment and management The overarching recommendation is to develop a strategic plan for turfgrass water relations research based around the five determinants of turf water use listed above. This plan should ensure research under these five categories is integrated into a holistic approach by which the consumer can be guided in species and/or cultivar choices as well as best management practices with respect to turfgrass water relations. Worsening drought cycles and limited supply of water for irrigation were the key factors driving every research project reviewed in this report. Subsidence of the most recent (or current) drought conditions in Australia should not be viewed by the turf industry as a reason to withdraw support or funding for research in this area. Drought conditions, limited domestic water availability and urban water restrictions will return in Australia albeit in 5, 10 or 20 years time and the turf industry has an opportunity to prepare for that time.