Modelling the potential spread of Solenopsis invicta Buren (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) (red imported fire ant) in Australia

Quantifying the potential spread and density of an invading organism enables decision-makers to determine the most appropriate response to incursions. We present two linked models that estimate the spread of Solenopsis invicta Buren (red imported fire ant) in Australia based on limited data gathered after its discovery in Brisbane in 2001. A stochastic cellular automaton determines spread within a location (100 km by 100 km) and this is coupled with a model that simulates human-mediated movement of S. invicta to new locations. In the absence of any control measures, the models predict that S. invicta could cover 763 000–4 066 000 km2 by the year 2035 and be found at 200 separate locations around Australia by 2017–2027, depending on the rate of spread. These estimated rates of expansion (assuming no control efforts were in place) are higher than those experienced in the USA in the 1940s during the early invasion phases in that country. Active control efforts and quarantine controls in the USA (including a concerted eradication attempt in the 1960s) may have slowed spread. Further, milder winters, the presence of the polygynous social form, increased trade and human mobility in Australia in 2000s compared with the USA in 1940s could contribute to faster range expansion.

Exploring the Potential Impacts of Climate Variability on Spring Wheat Yield with the APSIM Decision Support Tool

Assessing the impacts of climate variability on agricultural productivity at regional, national or global scale is essential for defining adaptation and mitigation strategies. We explore in this study the potential changes in spring wheat yields at Swift Current and Melfort, Canada, for different sowing windows under projected climate scenarios (i.e., the representative concentration pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). First, the APSIM model was calibrated and evaluated at the study sites using data from long term experimental field plots. Then, the impacts of change in sowing dates on final yield were assessed over the 2030-2099 period with a 1990-2009 baseline period of observed yield data, assuming that other crop management practices remained unchanged. Results showed that the performance of APSIM was quite satisfactory with an index of agreement of 0.80, R2 of 0.54, and mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of 529 kg/ha and 1023 kg/ha, respectively (MAE = 476 kg/ha and RMSE = 684 kg/ha in calibration phase). Under the projected climate conditions, a general trend in yield loss was observed regardless of the sowing window, with a range from -24 to -94 depending on the site and the RCP, and noticeable losses during the 2060s and beyond (increasing CO2 effects being excluded). Smallest yield losses obtained through earlier possible sowing date (i.e., mid-April) under the projected future climate suggested that this option might be explored for mitigating possible adverse impacts of climate variability. Our findings could therefore serve as a basis for using APSIM as a decision support tool for adaptation/mitigation options under potential climate variability within Western Canada.

The distribution of Fasciola hepatica in Queensland, Australia, and the potential impact of introduced snail intermediate hosts

A survey was conducted to establish the distribution of the liver fluke, Fasciola hepatica, in the state of Queensland, Australia, and to evaluate the impact of the introduced snail intermediate hosts, Pseudosuccinia columella and Austropeplea viridis. Serum samples from a total of 5103 homebred cattle in 142 beef herds distributed throughout the state and 523 pooled milk samples from dairy herds from the state's major dairying regions were tested for antibodies to F. hepatica by ELISA. Snails were collected on infected properties around the limits of the F. hepatica distribution. F. hepatica infection was detected in 44 dairy herds and two beef herds. The distribution of infected herds indicates that F. hepatica is established only in southeast Queensland. The distribution there was patchy but the parasite was more widespread than suggested by an earlier survey. The predominant intermediate host species found along the northern limit of the distribution was P. columella. We conclude that the introduction of P. columella and A. viridis has not yet had a major impact on the distribution of F. hepatica in Queensland. However, the presence of P. columella, which is much more adaptable to tropical habitats than the native intermediate host, Austropeplea tomentosa, at the northern limit of the F. hepatica distribution suggests that there is potential for the parasite to expand its range.

Prioritising potential guilds of specialist herbivores as biological control agents for prickly acacia through simulated herbivory

Understanding plant response to herbivory facilitates the prioritisation of guilds of specialist herbivores as biological control agents based on their potential impacts. Prickly acacia (Acacia nilotica ssp. indica) is a weed of national significance in Australia and is a target for biological control. Information on the susceptibility of prickly acacia to herbivory is limited, and there is no information available on the plant organ (i.e. leaf, shoot and root in isolation or in combination) most susceptible to herbivory. We evaluated the ability of prickly acacia seedlings, to respond to different types of simulated herbivory (defoliation, shoot damage, root damage and combinations), at varying frequencies (no herbivory, single, two and three events of herbivory) to identify the type and frequency of herbivory that will be required to reduce the growth and vigour. Defoliation and shoot damage, individually, had a significant negative impact on prickly acacia seedlings. For the defoliation to be effective, more than two defoliation events were required, whereas a single bout of shoot damage was enough to cause a significant reduction in plant vigour. A combination of defoliation + shoot damage had the greatest negative impact. The study highlights the need to prioritise specialist leaf and shoot herbivores as potential biological control agents for prickly acacia.

Development of a synthetic plant volatile-based attracticide for female noctuid moths. I. Potential sources of volatiles attractive to Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae).

This paper is the first of a series which will describe the development of a synthetic plant volatile-based attracticide for noctuid moths. It discusses potential sources of volatiles attractive to the cotton bollworm, Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner), and an approach to the combination of these volatiles in synthetic blends. We screened a number of known host and non-host (for larval development) plants for attractiveness to unmated male and female moths of this species, using a two-choice olfactometer system. Out of 38 plants tested, 33 were significantly attractive to both sexes. There was a strong correlation between attractiveness of plants to males and females. The Australian natives, Angophora floribunda and several Eucalyptus species were the most attractive plants. These plants have not been recorded either as larval or oviposition hosts of Helicoverpa spp., suggesting that attraction in the olfactometer might have been as nectar foraging rather than as oviposition sources. To identify potential compounds that might be useful in developing moth attractants, especially for females, collections of volatiles were made from plants that were attractive to moths in the olfactometer. Green leaf volatiles, floral volatiles, aromatic compounds, monoterpenes and sesquiterpenes were found. We propose an approach to developing synthetic attractants, here termed 'super-blending', in which compounds from all these classes, which are in common between attractive plants, might be combined in blends which do not mimic any particular attractive plant.

Thermal tolerance and potential distribution of Carvalhotingis visenda (Hemiptera: Tingidae), a biological control agent for cat's claw creeper, Macfadyena unguis-cati (Bignoniaceae)

The specialist tingid, Carvalhotingis visenda, is a biological control agent for cat's claw creeper, Macfadyena unguis-cati (Bignoniaceae). Cat's claw creeper is an invasive liana with a wide climatic tolerance, and for biological control to be effective the tingid must survive and develop over a range of temperatures. We evaluated the effect of constant temperatures (0-45°C) on the survival and development of C. visenda. Adults showed tolerance for wider temperature ranges (0-45°C), but oviposition, egg hatching and nymphal development were all affected by both high (>30°C) and low (<20°C) temperatures. Temperatures between 20°C and 30°C are the most favourable for adult survival, oviposition, egg hatching and nymphal development. The ability of adults and nymphs to survive for a few days at high (40°C and 45°C) and low (0°C and 5°C) temperatures suggest that extreme temperature events, which usually occur for short durations (hours) in cat's claw creeper infested regions in Queensland and New South Wales states are not likely to affect the tingid population. The potential number of generations (egg to adult) the tingid can complete in a year in Australia ranged from three to eight, with more generations in Queensland than in New South Wales.

Sweetcorn colour change and consumer perception associated with increasing zeaxanthin for the amelioration of age-related macular degeneration

Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of blindness in the developed world. Increasing dietary intake of lutein- and zeaxanthin-rich foods is a potential means of preventing, or at least slowing the progression of AMD. Zeaxanthin levels in tropical super-sweetcorn was increased from 1.1 to 11.9 µg/g FW through conventional breeding and selection, associated with both an increase in the proportion of zeaxanthin relative to other carotenoids, and a general increase in carotenoid synthesis. Increasing zeaxanthin was associated with a colour shift from traditional ‘canary-yellow’ kernels to a golden-orange colour. Kernel colour was most closely correlated (r2=69%) with an increase in beta-arm carotenoid concentration. Consumer analysis revealed that prior to any knowledge of zeaxanthin-related health benefit, consumers would readily purchase both yellow and gold cobs. Once the health benefit was explained, this extended to deep-gold cobs. Colour difference between regular yellow sweetcorn and high-zeaxanthin sweetcorn could potentially be used as a visual means of differentiating high-zeaxanthin sweetcorn in the marketplace.