36 resultados para Populations of models, Latin Hypercube Sampling
em eResearch Archive - Queensland Department of Agriculture
Resumo:
Parthenium weed, an annual herb native to tropical America, causes severe economic, human, and animal health and environmental impacts in Australia and in many countries in Asia, Africa, and the Pacific. There is little known about variation in reproductive output in naturally occurring populations of this weed. This information is vital to develop plant population models, devise management strategies to reduce seed output, and formulate parthenium weed pollen-induced human health (e.g., dermatitis and hay fever) risk assessment. Here, the variations in the number of capitula produced by the parthenium weed at two sites in Queensland, Australia, over a 4-yr period are reported. Under field conditions, parthenium weed produced up to 39,192 capitula per plant (> 156,768 seeds per plant), with majority of the plants (approximate to 75%) producing between 11 and 1,000 capitula, and less than 0.3% of the plants producing more than 10,000 capitula (> 40,000 seeds per plant). The number of capitula per plant in the field (297 +/- 22) was much lower than those reported from glasshouse and laboratory studies. Plant biomass contributed to 50 to 80% of the variation in capitulum production between plants within plots at each site, and weed density accounted for 62 to 73% of the variation in capitulum production between plots within each site. As plant size is directly correlated with reproductive output, plant size distributions in parthenium weed can be used to estimate effective population size. Information on variation in reproductive output will be used to implement management strategies to reduce parthenium weed seed output, resulting in reduced soil seed bank and weed seed spread.
Resumo:
Rarely is it possible to obtain absolute numbers in free-ranging populations and although various direct and indirect methods are used to estimate abundance, few are validated against populations of known size. In this paper, we apply grounding, calibration and verification methods, used to validate mathematical models, to methods of estimating relative abundance. To illustrate how this might be done, we consider and evaluate the widely applied passive tracking index (PTI) methodology. Using published data, we examine the rationality of PTI methodology, how conceptually animal activity and abundance are related and how alternative methods are subject to similar biases or produce similar abundance estimates and trends. We then attune the method against populations representing a range of densities likely to be encountered in the field. Finally, we compare PTI trends against a prediction that adjacent populations of the same species will have similar abundance values and trends in activity. We show that while PTI abundance estimates are subject to environmental and behavioural stochasticity peculiar to each species, the PTI method and associated variance estimate showed high probability of detection, high precision of abundance values and, generally, low variability between surveys, and suggest that the PTI method applied using this procedure and for these species provides a sensitive and credible index of abundance. This same or similar validation approach can and should be applied to alternative relative abundance methods in order to demonstrate their credibility and justify their use.
Resumo:
Aerial surveys of kangaroos (Macropus spp.) in Queensland are used to make economically important judgements on the levels of viable commercial harvest. Previous analysis methods for aerial kangaroo surveys have used both mark-recapture methodologies and conventional distance-sampling analyses. Conventional distance sampling has the disadvantage that detection is assumed to be perfect on the transect line, while mark-recapture methods are notoriously sensitive to problems with unmodelled heterogeneity in capture probabilities. We introduce three methodologies for combining together mark-recapture and distance-sampling data, aimed at exploiting the strengths of both methodologies and overcoming the weaknesses. Of these methods, two are based on the assumption of full independence between observers in the mark-recapture component, and this appears to introduce more bias in density estimation than it resolves through allowing uncertain trackline detection. Both of these methods give lower density estimates than conventional distance sampling, indicating a clear failure of the independence assumption. The third method, termed point independence, appears to perform very well, giving credible density estimates and good properties in terms of goodness-of-fit and percentage coefficient of variation. Estimated densities of eastern grey kangaroos range from 21 to 36 individuals km-2, with estimated coefficients of variation between 11% and 14% and estimated trackline detection probabilities primarily between 0.7 and 0.9.
Resumo:
We examine the microchemistry of otoliths of cohorts of a fished shed population of the large catadromous fish, barramundi Lates calcarifer from the estuary of a large tropical river. Barramundi from the estuary of the large, heavily regulated Fitzroy River, north eastern Australia were analysed by making transects of 87Sr/86Sr isotope and trace metal/Ca ratios from the core to the outer edge. Firstly, we examined the Sr/Ca, Ba/Ca, Mg/Ca and Mn/Ca and 87Sr/86Sr isotope ratios in otoliths of barramundi tagged in either freshwater or estuarine habitats that were caught by the commercial fishery in the estuary. We used 87Sr/86Sr isotope ratios to identify periods of freshwater residency and assess whether trace metal/Ca ratios varied between habitats. Only Sr/Ca consistently varied between known periods of estuarine or freshwater residency. The relationships between trace metal/Ca and river flow, salinity, temperature were examined in fish tagged and recaptured in the estuary. We found weak and inconsistent patterns in relationships between these variables in the majority of fish. These results suggest that both individual movement history within the estuary and the scale of environmental monitoring were reducing our ability to detect any patterns. Finally, we examined fish in the estuary from two dominant age cohorts (4 and 7 yr old) before and after a large flood in 2003 to ascertain if the flood had enabled fish from freshwater habitats to migrate to the estuary. There was no difference in the proportion of fish in the estuary that had accessed freshwater after the flood. Instead, we found that larger individuals with each age cohort were more likely to have spent a period in freshwater. This highlights the need to maintain freshwater flows in rivers. About half the fish examined had accessed freshwater habitats before capture. Of these, all had spent at least their first two months in marine salinity waters before entering freshwater and some did not enter freshwater until four years of age. This contrasts with the results of several previous studies in other parts of the range that found that access to freshwater swamps by larval barramundi was important for enhanced population productivity and recruitment.
Resumo:
Low-volume, backline applications with the benzoylphenyl urea insecticides triflumuron and diflubenzuron represent in excess of 70% of treatments for the control of sheep lice, Bovicola ovis (Schrank) (Phthiraptera: Trichodectidae), in Australia. Reports of reduced effectiveness from 2003 and subsequent controlled treatment trials suggested the emergence of resistance to these compounds in B. ovis populations. A laboratory assay based on the measurement of moulting success in nymphs was developed and used to assess susceptibility to diflubenzuron and triflumuron in louse populations collected from sheep where a control failure had occurred. These tests confirmed the development of resistance to triflumuron and diflubenzuron in at least two instances, with estimated resistance ratios of 67-94X at LC50.
Resumo:
The quality of tropical grasses is a major limitation to animal production in tropical and subtropical areas. This is mainly associated with the lower digestibility because C4 grasses have higher fibre levels. Any improvement in quality would require a reduction in the lignin and an increase in the digestion of the neutral detergent fibre content of these plants (Clark and Wilson 1993). Kikuyu (Pennisetum clandestinum) is an important grass for the dairy and beef industries of the subtropics of Australia, South Africa and New Zealand (Mears 1970). Increased digestibility could substantially improve animal production in these industries. These experiments investigated the variation in agronomic and quality of natural populations selected from diverse regions within Australia. Runners of 14 kikuyu selections were collected by project staff or local agronomists from areas considered to have grown kikuyu for over 30 years while Whittet and Noonan were established by seed. Entries were established as single spaced plants on a 1.5 m grid in a randomised block with 3 replicates and evaluated under irrigation at Mutdapilly (brown podsol) and Wollongbar (red ferrosol). Foliage height, forage production and runner yield were assessed along with crude protein (CP), in vitro dry matter digestibility (IVDMD), metabolisable energy (ME), acid detergent fibre (ADF) and neutral detergent fibre (NDF) content of the leaf in autumn, winter and spring.
Resumo:
This paper describes a study to identify those factors which control the persistence of the Subtropical legume Stylosanthes hippocampoides, formerly S. guianensis cv. Oxley (fine stem stylo). The dynamics of S. hippocampoides populations was recorded in permanent quadrats at 2 stocking rates in a grazing study conducted between 1987 and 1992 in south-eastern Queensland. Density of mature plants fluctuated between 10 and 60 plants/m(2) during the 5 years with the major contributing factors being variations in seedling recruitment and survival, which, in turn, reflected the size of the soil seed bank and seasonal rainfall. Plant density was consistently higher at the lower stocking rate of 1 beast/1.5 ha compared with 1 beast/1 ha; however, the effect of stocking rate was minor compared with fluctuation due to seasonal variation in rainfall. The maximum life span of the original plants exceeded 5 years, while the survival of seedling cohorts was strongly impacted by seasonal rainfall. Total exclosure from grazing during summer increased the size of the soil seed bank although a precise time period during summer was not identified, while grazing at the lower stocking pressure produced the same outcome. It was concluded that the large seasonal variation that occurs in S. hippocampoides density is driven by large seasonal variation in seedling recruitment, which, in turn, is influenced by the size of the soil seed bank.
Resumo:
The Australian sheep blowfly, Lucilia cuprina initiates more than 85% of fly strikes on sheep in Australia with an estimated average annual cost of A$280 million to the Australian wool industry. LuciTrap® is a commercially available, selective trap for L. cuprina consisting of a plastic bucket with multiple fly entry cones and a synthetic attractant. The impact of LuciTrap on populations of L. cuprina on sheep properties in five Australian states was evaluated by comparing L. cuprina populations on paired properties with and without LuciTraps over seasons when significant fly populations could be expected. Twenty-four comparisons (trials) were conducted over four years. During times of ‘higher fly density’ (when the 48 h geometric mean of trap catches on the control property was greater than five L. cuprina), the overall geometric mean trap catches for control and trapped properties differed significantly (P<0.001) with mean trap catches of 19.4 and 7.74 L. cuprina respectively. The selectivity of the LuciTrap was confirmed with 59% of all trapped flies being L. cuprina. Chrysomya spp. and Calliphora spp. constituted 9.3% and 1.1% of the catches with a variety of other flies (mainly Sarcophagidae and Muscidae) providing the remainder (31%). L. sericata was only trapped in Tasmania and made up 7.7% of the Lucilia spp. catch in this State. Seventy-two percent of the trapped L. cuprina were female. The deployment of LuciTrap on sheep properties at one trap per 100 sheep from the beginning of the anticipated fly season suppressed the populations of L. cuprina by 60% compared to matched control properties. The LuciTrap is a selective and easy to use fly trap and constitutes an effective, non-insecticidal tool for use in integrated management programs for L. cuprina.
Resumo:
Phenotypic variation in heartwood and essential-oil characters of Santalum austrocaledonicum was assessed across eleven populations on seven islands of Vanuatu Trees differed significantly in their percentage heartwood cross-sectional area and this varied independently of stem diameter The concentrations of the four major essential-oil constituents (alpha-santalol, beta-santalol. (Z)-beta-curcumen-12-ol, and cis-nuciferol) of alcohol-extracted heartwood exhibited at least tenfold and continuous tree-to-tree variation Commercially important components alpha- and beta-santalol found in individual trees ranged from 0 8-47% and 0-24 1%, respectively, across all populations, and significant (P < 0 05) differences for each were found between Individual populations. The Erromango population was unique in that the mean concentrations of its monocyclic ((Z)-beta-curcumen-12-ol and cis-nuciferol) sesquiterpenes exceeded those of Its bi- and tricyclic (alpha- and beta-santalol) sesquiterpenes Heartwood colour varied between trees and spanned 65 colour categories, but no identifiable relationships were found between heartwood colour and alpha- and beta-santalol, although a weak relationship was evident between colour saturation and total oil concentration These results indicate that the heartwood colour is not a reliable predictive trait for oil quality The results of this study highlight the knowledge gaps in fundamental understanding of heartwood biology in Santalum genus The intraspecific variation in heartwood cross-sectional area. oil concentration. and oil quality traits is of considerable importance to the domestication of sandalwood and present opportunities for the development of highly superior S austrocaledonicum cultivars that conform to the industry's International Standards used for S album.
Resumo:
Experiments at 2 sites in subtropical eastern Australia investigated the variation in agronomic attributes, quality and genetic structure existing within: naturally-occurring populations of kikuyu ( Pennisetum clandestinum) from within Australia; selections produced from the treatment of Whittet seed with mutagenic chemicals; and available cultivars. Runners were collected from coastal areas extending from Western Australia to the Atherton Tableland in north Queensland. One experiment evaluated 10 mutagenic selections and 4 cultivars in a lattice design and the other evaluated 12 ecotypes and 3 cultivars in a randomised block design. The experimental unit was single plants, which were sown on a 1.5 m grid into a weed-free seed-bed (Mutdapilly) or a killed kikuyu stand (Wollongbar), both of which were kept clear of weeds and other kikuyu plants for the duration of the experiments. Foliage height, forage production and runner yield were assessed. Leaf material was analysed for concentrations of crude protein (CP), acid detergent fibre (ADF) and neutral detergent fibre (NDF) and for in vitro dry matter digestibility (IVDDM) in autumn, winter and spring. DNA was extracted from each plant in the ecotype comparison and subjected to a modified DAF (DNA amplification fingerprinting) analysis to determine the level of genetic relatedness. In the first experiment, none of the mutagenic lines derived from Whittet yielded significantly more or was more digestible than commercial Whittet material, although some selections were superior to the other commercial kikuyu cultivars, Noonan and Crofts, and 'common' kikuyu. However, there were significant differences in plant height and runner expansion. In the second experiment, significant differences in plant height, foliage yield, runner development, and leaf CP, ADF, NDF and IVDDM concentrations were demonstrated between the ecotypes, mutagenic selections and cultivars. There was a 4- to 6-fold difference in plant yield and a 6- to 10-fold difference in runner production between the ecotypes at the 2 sites. Quality of the leaf ranged from 200 to 270 g/kg (CP), from 700 to 770 g/kg (IVDDM), from 170 to 250 g/kg (ADF) and from 470 to 550 g/kg (NDF). Improvements in quality and agronomic attributes were not mutually exclusive. Genetic fingerprint analysis of the kikuyu lines indicated that they formed 2 broad groupings. Most of the regional ecotypes were grouped with 'common' kikuyu as represented by the material collected from Wollongbar, and the Beechmont, Atherton Tableland and Gympie ecotypes were grouped with the registered cultivars Whittet, Noonan and Crofts. Two lines produced by mutagenesis from Whittet remained closely linked to Whittet. These results suggest that there was variation between populations of kikuyu in yield, quality and genetic diversity but that mutagenesis by treating seed with sodium azide and diethylene sulphide did not achieve a significant change in the digestibility of leaf over cv. Whittet.
Resumo:
Linking the populations of barramundi and king threadfin to environmental flows in four rivers of tropical Australia
Resumo:
Fish collected after a mass mortality at an artificial lake in south-east Queensland, Australia, were examined for the presence of nodularin as the lake had earlier been affected by a Nodularia bloom. Methanol extracts of muscle, liver, peritoneal and stomach contents were analysed by HPLC and tandem mass spectrometry; histological examination was conducted on livers from captured mullet. Livers of sea mullet (Mugil cephalus) involved in the fish kill contained high concentrations of nodularin (median 43.6 mg/kg, range 40.8-47.8 mg/kg dry weight; n = 3) and the toxin was also present in muscle tissue (median 44.0 mu g/kg, range 32.3-56.8 mu g/kg dry weight). Livers of fish occupying higher trophic levels accumulated much lower concentrations. Mullet captured from the lake 10 months later were also found to have high hepatic nodularin levels. DNA sequencing of mullet specimens revealed two species inhabiting the study lake: M. cephalus and an unidentified mugilid. The two mullet species appear to differ in their exposure and/or uptake of nodularin, with M. cephalus demonstrating higher tissue concentrations. The feeding ecology of mullet would appear to explain the unusual capacity of these fish to concentrate nodularin in their livers; these findings may have public health implications for mullet fisheries and aquaculture production where toxic cyanobacteria blooms affect source waters. This report incorporates a systematic review of the literature on nodularin measured in edible fish, shellfish and crustaceans.
Resumo:
Nematode species Pratylenchus thornei and P. neglectus are the two most important root-lesion nematodes affecting wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and other grain crops in Australia. For practical plant breeding, it will be valuable to know the mode of inheritance of resistance and whether the same set of genes confer resistance to both species. We evaluated reactions to P. thornei and P. neglectus of glasshouse-inoculated plants of five doubled-haploid populations derived from five resistant synthetic hexpaloid wheat lines, each crossed to the susceptible Australian wheat cultivar Janz. For each cross we determined genetic variance, heritability and minimum number of effective resistance genes for each nematode species. Distributions of nematode numbers for both species were continuous for all doubled-haploid populations. Heritabilities were high and the resistances were controlled by 4-7 genes. There was no genetic correlation between resistance to P. thornei and to P. neglectus in four of the populations and a significant but low correlation in one. Therefore, resistances to P. thornei and to P. neglectus are probably inherited quantitatively and independently in four of these synthetic hexaploid wheat populations, with the possibility of at least one genetic factor contributing to resistance to both species in one of the populations. Parents with the greatest level of resistance will be the best to use as donor parents to adapted cultivars, and selection of resistance to both species in early generations will be optimal to carry resistance through successive cycles of inbreeding to produce resistant cultivars for release.
Resumo:
The root-lesion nematode, Pratylenchus thornei, can reduce wheat yields by >50%. Although this nematode has a broad host range, crop rotation can be an effective tool for its management if the host status of crops and cultivars is known. The summer crops grown in the northern grain region of Australia are poorly characterised for their resistance to P. thornei and their role in crop sequencing to improve wheat yields. In a 4-year field experiment, we prepared plots with high or low populations of P. thornei by growing susceptible wheat or partially resistant canaryseed (Phalaris canariensis); after an 11-month, weed-free fallow, several cultivars of eight summer crops were grown. Following another 15-month, weed-free fallow, P. thornei-intolerant wheat cv. Strzelecki was grown. Populations of P. thornei were determined to 150 cm soil depth throughout the experiment. When two partially resistant crops were grown in succession, e.g. canaryseed followed by panicum (Setaria italica), P. thornei populations were <739/kg soil and subsequent wheat yields were 3245 kg/ha. In contrast, after two susceptible crops, e.g. wheat followed by soybean, P. thornei populations were 10 850/kg soil and subsequent wheat yields were just 1383 kg/ha. Regression analysis showed a linear, negative response of wheat biomass and grain yield with increasing P. thornei populations and a predicted loss of 77% for biomass and 62% for grain yield. The best predictor of wheat yield loss was P. thornei populations at 0-90 cm soil depth. Crop rotation can be used to reduce P. thornei populations and increase wheat yield, with greatest gains being made following two partially resistant crops grown sequentially.
Resumo:
Sagittal otoliths were used to age the samples of Tilapia mariae collected from a coastal river and an impoundment. Validation of sagittae checks was achieved using both quantitative marginal increment analysis and by tetracycline marking of the otoliths of fish kept in tanks and in a farm dam. The annulus pattern on the otoliths was generally clear and their formation appeared to be temperature related and largely completed in the Austral spring around September and October. Male T. mariae grow faster and larger than females and the maximum ages of fish from the coastal river and impoundment was 9+ and 4+ years, respectively. Past fish surveys and the absence of older age classes in the impoundment population would suggest that this population was only very recently established.