83 resultados para Population Spread

em eResearch Archive - Queensland Department of Agriculture


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Global amphibian decline by chytridiomycosis is a major environmental disaster that has been attributed to either recent fungal spread or environmental change that promotes disease. Here, we present a population genetic comparison of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis isolates from an intensively studied region of frog decline, the Sierra Nevada of California. In support of a novel pathogen, we find low diversity, no amphibian-host specificity, little correlation between fungal genotype and geography, local frog extirpation by a single fungal genotype, and evidence of human-assisted fungus migration. In support of endemism, at a local scale, we find some diverse, recombining populations. Therefore neither epidemic spread nor endemism alone explains this particular amphibian decline. Recombination raises the possibility of resistant sporangia and a mechanism for rapid spread as well as persistence that could greatly complicate global control of the pathogen.

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Since their release over 100 years ago, camels have spread across central Australia and increased in number. Increasingly, they are being seen as a pest, with observed impacts from overgrazing and damage to infrastructure such as fences. Irregular aerial surveys since 1983 and an interview-based survey in 1966 suggest that camels have been increasing at close to their maximum rate. A comparison of three models of population growth fitted to these, albeit limited, data suggests that the Northern Territory population has indeed been growing at an annual exponential rate of r = 0.074, or 8% per year, with little evidence of a density-dependent brake. A stage-structured model using life history data from a central Australian camel population suggests that this rate approximates the theoretical maximum. Elasticity analysis indicates that adult survival is by far the biggest influence on rate of increase and that a 9% reduction in survival from 96% is needed to stop the population growing. In contrast, at least 70% of mature females need to be sterilised to have a similar effect. In a benign environment, a population of large mammals such as camels is expected to grow exponentially until close to carrying capacity. This will frustrate control programs, because an ever-increasing number of animals will need to be removed for zero growth the longer that culling or harvesting effort is delayed. A population projection for 2008 suggests ~10 500 animals need to be harvested across the Northern Territory. Current harvests are well short of this. The ability of commercial harvesting to control camel populations in central Australia will depend on the value of animals, access to animals and the presence of alternative species to harvest when camels are at low density.

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Combating the spread of invasive fish is problematic, with eradication rarely possible and control options varying enormously in their effectiveness. In two small impoundments in north-eastern Australia, an electrofishing removal program was conducted to control an invasive tilapia population. We hypothesised that electrofishing would reduce the population density of Oreochromis mossambicus (Mozambique tilapia), to limit the risk of downstream spread into areas of high conservation value. We sampled by electrofishing monthly for 33 months. Over this period, there was an 87% decline in catch per unit effort (CPUE) of mature fish, coupled with a corresponding increase of 366% in the number of juveniles, suggesting a density-dependent response in the stock-recruitment relationship for the population. Temperature was inversely related to CPUE (r=0.43, lag=10 days), implying greater electrofishing efficiency in cooler months. The reduction in breeding stock is likely to reduce the risk of spread and render the population vulnerable to other control measures such as netting and/or biological control. Importantly, the current study suggests routine electrofishing may be a useful control tool for invasive fish in small impoundments when the use of more destructive techniques, such as piscicides, is untenable.

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Bellyache bush (Jatropha gossypiifolia L.) is an invasive weed that poses economic and environmental problems in northern Australia. Competition between pasture and bellyache bush was examined in North Queensland using combinations of five pasture treatments (uncut (control); cut as low, medium, and high pasture; and no pasture) and four bellyache bush densities (0, 2, 6 and 12plantsm(-2)) in a buffel grass (Cenchrus ciliaris L.) dominated pasture. The pasture treatments were applied approximately once per year but no treatments were applied directly to the bellyache bush plants. Measurements of bellyache bush flowering, seed formation, and mortality were undertaken over a 9-year period, along with monitoring the pasture basal cover and plant species diversity. Maximum flowering rates of bellyache bush occurred after 9 years (97%) in plots containing no pasture, with the lowest rates of 9% in uncut control plots. Earliest flowering (322 days after planting) and seed formation (411 days) also occurred in plots with no pasture compared with all other pasture treatments (range 1314-1393 days for seed formation to occur). No seeds were produced in uncut plots. At the end of 9 years, mortality rates of bellyache bush plants initially planted averaged 73% for treatments with some pasture compared with 55% under the no-pasture treatment. The percentage of herbaceous plant basal cover in uncut plots was increased 5-fold after 9 years, much greater than the average 2% increase recorded across the low, medium, and high pasture treatments. The number of herbaceous species in uncut plots remained largely unchanged, whereas there was an average reduction of 46% in the cut pasture treatments. Buffel grass remained the species with the greatest basal cover across all cut pasture treatments, followed by sabi grass (Urochloa mosambicensis (Hack.) Dandy) and then red Natal grass (Melinis repens (Willd.) Ziska). These results suggest that grazing strategies that maintain a healthy and competitive pasture layer may contribute to reducing the rate of spread of bellyache bush and complement traditional control techniques such as the use of herbicides.

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Cabomba caroliniana is a submersed aquatic macrophyte that originates from the Americas and is currently invading temperate, subtropical, and tropical freshwater habitats around the world. Despite being a nuisance in many countries, little is known about its ecology. We monitored C. caroliniana populations in three reservoirs in subtropical Queensland, Australia, over 5.5 years. Although biomass, stem length, and plant density of the C. caroliniana stands fluctuated over time, they did not exhibit clear seasonal patterns. Water depth was the most important environmental factor explaining C. caroliniana abundance. Plant biomass was greatest at depths from 2–4 m and rooted plants were not found beyond 5 m. Plant density was greatest in shallow water and decreased with depth, most likely as a function of decreasing light and increasing physical stress. We tested the effect of a range of water physico-chemical parameters. The concentration of phosphorus in the water column was the variable that explained most of the variation in C. caroliniana population parameters. We found that in subtropical Australia, C. caroliniana abundance does not appear to be affected by seasonal conditions but is influenced by other environmental variables such as water depth and nutrient loading. Therefore, further spread will more likely be governed by local habitat rather than climatic conditions.

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Cabomba caroliniana is a submersed aquatic macrophyte that originates from the Americas and is currently invading temperate, subtropical, and tropical freshwater habitats around the world. Despite being a nuisance in many countries, little is known about its ecology. We monitored C. caroliniana populations in three reservoirs in subtropical Queensland, Australia, over 5.5 years. Although biomass, stem length, and plant density of the C. caroliniana stands fluctuated over time, they did not exhibit clear seasonal patterns. Water depth was the most important environmental factor explaining C. caroliniana abundance. Plant biomass was greatest at depths from 2–4 m and rooted plants were not found beyond 5 m. Plant density was greatest in shallow water and decreased with depth, most likely as a function of decreasing light and increasing physical stress. We tested the effect of a range of water physico-chemical parameters. The concentration of phosphorus in the water column was the variable that explained most of the variation in C. caroliniana population parameters. We found that in subtropical Australia, C. caroliniana abundance does not appear to be affected by seasonal conditions but is influenced by other environmental variables such as water depth and nutrient loading. Therefore, further spread will more likely be governed by local habitat rather than climatic conditions.

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Bactrocera frauenfeldi (Schiner), the ‘mango fruit fly’, is a horticultural pest originating from the Papua New Guinea region. It was first detected in Australia on Cape York Peninsula in north Queensland in 1974 and had spread to Cairns by 1994 and Townsville by 1997. Bactrocera frauenfeldi has not been recorded further south since then despite its invasive potential, an absence of any controls and an abundance of hosts in southern areas. Analysis of cue-lure trapping data from 1997 to 2012 in relation to environmental variables shows that the distribution of B. frauenfeldi in Queensland correlates to locations with a minimum temperature for the coldest month >13.2°C, annual temperature range <19.3°C, mean temperature of the driest quarter >20.2°C, precipitation of the wettest month >268 mm, precipitation of the wettest quarter >697 mm, temperature seasonality <30.9°C (i.e. lower temperature variability) and areas with higher human population per square kilometre. Annual temperature range was the most important variable in predicting this species' distribution. Predictive distribution maps based on an uncorrelated subset of these variables reasonably reflected the current distribution of this species in northern Australia and predicted other areas in the world potentially at risk from invasion by this species. This analysis shows that the distribution of B. frauenfeldi in Australia is correlated to certain environmental variables that have most likely limited this species' spread southward in Queensland. This is of importance to Australian horticulture in demonstrating that B. frauenfeldi is unlikely to establish in horticultural production areas further south than Townsville.

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The East Indies triangle, bordered by the Phillipines, Malay Peninsula and New Guinea, has a high level of tropical marine species biodiversity. Pristipomoides multidens is a large, long-lived, fecund snapper species that is distributed throughout the East Indies and Indo-Pacific. Samples were analysed from central and eastern Indonesia and northern Australia to test for genetic discontinuities in population structure. Fish (n = 377) were collected from the Indonesian islands of Bali, Sumbawa, Flores, West Timor, Tanimbar and Tual along with 131 fish from two northern Australian locations (Arafura and Timor Seas) from a previous study. Genetic variation in the control region of the mitochondrial genome was assayed using restriction fragment length polymorphism and direct sequencing. Haplotype diversity was high (0.67-0.82), as was intraspecific sequence divergence (range 0-5.8%). FST between pairs of populations ranged from 0 to 0.2753. Genetic subdivision was apparent on a small spatial scale; FST was 0.16 over 191 km (Bali/Sumbawa) and 0.17 over 491 km (Bali/Flores). Constraints to dispersal that contribute to, and maintain, the observed degree of genetic subdivision are experienced presumably by all life history stages of this tropical marine finfish. The constraints may include (1) little or no movement of eggs or larvae, (2) little or no home range or migratory movement of adults and (3) loss of larval cohorts due to transport of larvae away from suitable habitat by prevailing currents

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1 Five experiments were conducted during 1995-99 in stone fruit orchards on the Central Coast and in inland New South Wales, Australia, on the use of synthetic aggregation pheromones and a coattractant to suppress populations of the ripening fruit pests Carpophilus spp. (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae). 2 Perimeter-based suppression traps baited with pheromone and coattractant placed at 3m intervals around small fruit blocks, caught large numbers of Carpophilus spp. Very small populations of Carpophilus spp. occurred within blocks, and fruit damage was minimal. 3 Carpophilus spp. populations in stone fruit blocks 15-370m from suppression traps were also small and non-damaging, indicating a large zone of pheromone attractivity. 4 Pheromone/coattractant-baited suppression traps appeared to divert Carpophilus spp. from nearby (130 m) ripening stone fruit. Ten metal drums containing decomposing fruit, baited with pheromone and treated with insecticide, attracted Carpophilus spp. and appeared to reduce populations and damage to ripening fruit at distances of 200-500 m. Populations and damage were significantly greater within 200m of the drums and may have been caused by ineffective poisoning or poor quality/overcrowding of fruit resources in the drums. 5 Suppression of Carpophilus spp. populations using synthetic aggregation pheromones and a coattractant appears to be a realistic management option in stone fruit orchards. Pheromone-mediated diversion of beetle populations from ripening fruit may be more practical than perimeter trapping, but more research is needed on the effective range of Carpophilus pheromones and the relative merits of trapping compared to attraction to insecticide-treated areas.

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Large larval populations of the scarabaeid beetle Heteronyx piceus Blanchard that occur under peanuts, but not maize, in the South Burnett region of Australia are the result of a high rate and prolonged period of egg production by females feeding on peanut foliage. Heteronyx piceus is a relatively sedentary species and movement of females between adjacent fields is low. Populations of H. piceus varied markedly with landscape position. High larval populations are more likely (1 in 4 chance) to be encountered on the ‘scrub’ soils in the upper parts of the landscape than in the ‘forest’ soils in the lower half (1 in 20 chance), indicating that soil type/landscape position is a key risk factor in assessing the need for management intervention. The studies indicate that, because of the species' sedentary nature, the most meaningful population entity for management of H. piceus is the individual field, rather than the whole-farm or the region. The implications of this population ecology for management of the pest are discussed in relation to control strategies.

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This study compares estimates of the census size of the spawning population with genetic estimates of effective current and long-term population size for an abundant and commercially important marine invertebrate, the brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus). Our aim was to focus on the relationship between genetic effective and census size that may provide a source of information for viability analyses of naturally occurring populations. Samples were taken in 2001, 2002 and 2003 from a population on the east coast of Australia and temporal allelic variation was measured at eight polymorphic microsatellite loci. Moments-based and maximum-likelihood estimates of current genetic effective population size ranged from 797 to 1304. The mean long-term genetic effective population size was 9968. Although small for a large population, the effective population size estimates were above the threshold where genetic diversity is lost at neutral alleles through drift or inbreeding. Simulation studies correctly predicted that under these experimental conditions the genetic estimates would have non-infinite upper confidence limits and revealed they might be overestimates of the true size. We also show that estimates of mortality and variance in family size may be derived from data on average fecundity, current genetic effective and census spawning population size, assuming effective population size is equivalent to the number of breeders. This work confirms that it is feasible to obtain accurate estimates of current genetic effective population size for abundant Type III species using existing genetic marker technology.

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Fusarium wilt of cotton, caused by the fungus Fusarium oxysporum Schlechtend. f. sp. vasinfectum (Atk.) Snyd. & Hans, was first identified in 1892 in cotton growing in sandy acid soils in Alabama (8). Although the disease was soon discovered in other major cotton-producing areas, it did not become global until the end of the next century. After its original discovery, Fusarium wilt of cotton was reported in Egypt (1902) (30), India (1908) (60), Tanzania (1954) (110), California (1959) (33), Sudan (1960) (44), Israel (1970) (27), Brazil (1978) (5), China (1981) (17), and Australia (1993) (56). In addition to a worldwide distribution, Fusarium wilt occurs in all four of the domesticated cottons, Gossypium arboretum L., G. barbadense L., G. herbaceum L., and G. hirsutum L. (4,30). Disease losses in cotton are highly variable within a country or region. In severely infested fields planted with susceptible cultivars, yield losses can be high. In California, complete crop losses in individual fields have been observed (R. M. Davis, unpublished). Disease loss estimates prepared by the National Cotton Disease Council indicate losses of over 109,000 bales (227 kg or 500 lb) in the United States in 2004 (12).

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QTL for stem sugar-related and other agronomic traits were identified in a converted sweet (R9188) × grain (R9403463-2-1) sorghum population. QTL analyses were conducted using phenotypic data for 11 traits measured in two field experiments and a genetic map comprising 228 SSR and AFLP markers grouped into 16 linkage groups, of which 11 could be assigned to the 10 sorghum chromosomes (SBI-01 to SBI-10). QTL were identified for all traits and were generally co-located to five locations (SBI-01, SBI-03, SBI-05, SBI-06 and SBI-10). QTL alleles from R9188 were detected for increased sucrose content and sugar content on SBI-01, SBI-05 and SBI-06. R9188 also contributed QTL alleles for increased Brix on SBI-05 and SBI-06, and increased sugar content on SBI-03. QTL alleles from R9403463-2-1 were found for increased sucrose content and sucrose yield on SBI-10, and increased glucose content on SBI-07. QTL alleles for increased height, later flowering and greater total dry matter yield were located on SBI-01 of R9403463-2-1, and SBI-06 of R9188. QTL alleles for increased grain yield from both R9403463-2-1 and R9188 were found on SBI-03. As an increase in stem sugars is an important objective in sweet sorghum breeding, the QTL identified in this study could be further investigated for use in marker-assisted selection of sweet sorghum.

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The genetic population structure of red snapper Lutjanus malabaricus and Lutjanus erythropterus in eastern Indonesia and northern Australia was investigated by allozyme electrophoresis and sequence variation in the control region of mtDNA. Samples were collected from eight sites in Indonesia and four sites in northern Australia for both species. A total of 13 allozyme loci were scored. More variable loci were observed in L. malabaricus than in L. erythropterus. Sequence variation in the control region (left domain) of the mitochondrial genome was assessed by RFLP and direct sequencing. MtDNA haplotype diversity was high (L. erythropterus, 0.95 and L. malabaricus, 0.97), as was intraspecific sequence divergence, (L. erythropterus, 0.0-12.5% and L. malabaricus, 0.0-9.5%). The pattern of mtDNA haplotype frequencies grouped both species into two broad fisheries stocks with a genetic boundary either between Kupang and Sape (L. malabaricus) or between Kupang and Australian Timor Sea (L. erythropertus). The allozyme analyses revealed similar boundaries for L. erythropterus. Seven allozymes stocks compared to two mtDNA stocks of L. malabaricus including Ambon, which was not sampled with mtDNA, however, were reported. Possible reasons for differences in discrimination between the methods include: i) increased power of multiple allozyme loci over the single mtDNA locus, ii) insufficient gene sampling in the mtDNA control region and iii) relative evolutionary dynamics of nuclear (allozyme loci) and mitochondrial DNA in these taxa. Allozyme and haplotype data did not distinguish separate stocks among the four Australian locations nor the central Indonesian (Bali and Sape locations) for both L. malabaricus and L. erythropterus.

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Quantifying the potential spread and density of an invading organism enables decision-makers to determine the most appropriate response to incursions. We present two linked models that estimate the spread of Solenopsis invicta Buren (red imported fire ant) in Australia based on limited data gathered after its discovery in Brisbane in 2001. A stochastic cellular automaton determines spread within a location (100 km by 100 km) and this is coupled with a model that simulates human-mediated movement of S. invicta to new locations. In the absence of any control measures, the models predict that S. invicta could cover 763 000–4 066 000 km2 by the year 2035 and be found at 200 separate locations around Australia by 2017–2027, depending on the rate of spread. These estimated rates of expansion (assuming no control efforts were in place) are higher than those experienced in the USA in the 1940s during the early invasion phases in that country. Active control efforts and quarantine controls in the USA (including a concerted eradication attempt in the 1960s) may have slowed spread. Further, milder winters, the presence of the polygynous social form, increased trade and human mobility in Australia in 2000s compared with the USA in 1940s could contribute to faster range expansion.