Relocation of Intensive Agriculture to Northern Queensland The Cotton Industry

Development of new agricultural industries in northern Australia is often perceived as a solution to changes in water availability that have occurred within southern Australia as a result of changes to government policy in response to and exacerbated by climate change. This report examines the likely private, social and community costs and benefits associated with the establishment of a cotton industry in the Burdekin. The research undertaken covers three spatial scales by modelling the response of cotton and to climate change at the crop and farm scale and linking this to regional scale modelling of the economy. Modelling crop growth as either a standalone crop or as part of a farm enterprise provides the clearest picture of how yields and water use will be affected under climate change. The alternative to this is to undertake very costly trials in environmental chambers. For this reason it is critical that funding for model development especially for crops being crop in novel environments be seen as a high priority for climate change and adaptation studies. Crop level simulations not only provide information on how the crop responds to climate change, they also illustrate that that these responses are the result of complex interactions and cannot necessarily be derived from the climate information alone. These simulations showed that climate change would lead to decreased cotton yields in 2030 and 2050 without the affect of CO2 fertilisation. Without CO2 fertilisation, yields would be decreased by 3.2% and 17.8%. Including CO2 fertilisation increased yields initially by 5.9%, but these were reduced by 3.6% in 2050. This still represents a major offset and at least ameliorates the impact of climate change on yield. To cope with the decreased in-crop rainfall (4.5% by 2030 and 15.8% in 2050) and an initial increase in evapotranspiration of 2% in 2030 and

Production responses of reproducing ewes to a by-product-based diet inoculated with the probiotic Bacillus amyloliquefaciens strain H57

The potential application of the spore-forming probiotic Bacillus amyloliquefaciens strain H57 (H57) as a novel probiotic for ruminants was evaluated in reproducing ewes. Performance responses were determined by delivering H57 in a pelleted diet based mainly on palm kernel meal (PKM) and sorghum grain. PKM is an agro-industrial by-product with a reputation for poor palatability and the availability of the starch in sorghum grain can be limited in ruminants. The hypothesis was that H57 improves the feeding value of a relatively low quality concentrate diet. Twenty-four first-parity white Dorper ewes were fed PKM-based pellets manufactured with or without H57 (109 cfu/kg pellet) in late pregnancy. During this phase of late pregnancy, the H57 ewes ate 17% more dry matter (1019 vs 874 g/day, P = 0.03), gained more weight (194 vs 30 g/day, P = 0.008) and retained more nitrogen (6.13 vs 3.34 g/day, P = 0.01), but produced lambs with a similar birthweight (4.1 vs 4.2 kg, P = 0.73). Rumen fluid collected from H57 ewes in late pregnancy had higher pH (7.1 vs 6.8, P = 0.07), acetate : propionate ratio (3.4 vs 2.7, P = 0.04), lower ammonia (69 vs 147 mmol/L, P = 0.001) and total volatile fatty acid concentrations (40 vs 61 mg/L, P = 0.02). The digestibility of dry matter, organic matter and fibre were similar between the two groups. The lambs of the H57 ewes grew faster than those of the Control ewes for the first 21 days of lactation (349 vs 272 g/day, P = 0.03), but not thereafter. H57 can improve feed intake and maternal liveweight gain in late pregnancy of first-parity ewes fed a diet based on PKM.

Development of a stable isotope index to assess decadal-scale vegetation change and application to woodlands of the Burdekin catchment, Australia

Forty-four study sites were established in remnant woodland in the Burdekin River catchment in tropical north-east Queensland, Australia, to assess recent (decadal) vegetation change. The aim of this study was further to evaluate whether wide-scale vegetation 'thickening' (proliferation of woody plants in formerly more open woodlands) had occurred during the last century, coinciding with significant changes in land management. Soil samples from several depth intervals were size separated into different soil organic carbon (SOC) fractions, which differed from one another by chemical composition and turnover times. Tropical (C4) grasses dominate in the Burdekin catchment, and thus δ13C analyses of SOC fractions with different turnover times can be used to assess whether the relative proportion of trees (C3) and grasses (C4) had changed over time. However, a method was required to permit standardized assessment of the δ13C data for the individual sites within the 13 Mha catchment, which varied in soil and vegetation characteristics. Thus, an index was developed using data from three detailed study sites and global literature to standardize individual isotopic data from different soil depths and SOC fractions to reflect only the changed proportion of trees (C3) to grasses (C3) over decadal timescales. When applied to the 44 individual sites distributed throughout the Burdekin catchment, 64% of the sites were shown to have experienced decadal vegetation thickening, while 29% had remained stable and the remaining 7% had thinned. Thus, the development of this index enabled regional scale assessment and comparison of decadal vegetation patterns without having to rely on prior knowledge of vegetation changes or aerial photography.

Field assessment of the resistance of timber products to termite (Isoptera) damage: Results can change with the amount of bait wood

Whether or not termites initiate damage to timber via the end grain may determine the need for spot-treating the exposed untreated cut ends of envelope-treated softwood framing material. Australian Coptotermes acinaciformis (Froggatt) were field-tested for their ability to initiate feeding via the end grain of timber (35 × 90 mm) treated with a repellent Tanalith® T envelope. Specimens of commercial radiata pine Pinus radiata D.Don framing timber (untreated) and slash pine Pinus elliottii Englem. (untreated and envelope-treated) were partially clad in fine stainless steel mesh. Clad and unclad specimens were exposed to C. acinaciformis near Townsville, North Queensland, Australia, for four months. Results showed that this species of termite can indeed damage timber via the end grain, including exposed untreated cut ends of envelope-treated material as demonstrated earlier for different populations of C. acinaciformis. Differences between the test conditions in field trials carried out at different times (where C. acinaciformis either did or did not damage timber via the end grain) are discussed. Clearly, outcomes from field studies with preservative-treated materials are dependent upon experimental conditions. Notably, the amount of bait wood (highly termite-susceptible timber substrate) offered in a given method can strongly influence the termite response. Further investigation is required to standardise this aspect of conditions in protocols for the assessment of wood preservatives.

Gene expression in the skin of Bos taurus and Bos indicus cattle infested with the cattle tick, Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus

The cattle tick Rhipicephalus microplus (formerly Boophilus microplus) is responsible for severe production losses to the cattle industry worldwide. It has long been known that different breeds of cattle can resist tick infestation to varying degrees; however, the mechanisms by which resistant cattle prevent heavy infestation are largely unknown. The aim of this study was to determine whether gene expression varied significantly between skin sampling sites (neck, chest and tail region), and whether changes in gene expression could be detected in samples taken at tick attachment sites (tick attached to skin sample) compared with samples taken from non-attachment sites (no tick attachment). We present here the results of an experiment examining the expression of a panel of forty-four genes in skin sections taken from Bos indicus (Brahman) cattle of known high resistance, and Bos taurus (Holstein-Friesian) cattle of known low resistance to the cattle tick. The forty-four genes chosen for this study included genes known to be involved in several immune processes, some structural genes, and some genes previously suggested to be of importance in tick resistance by other researchers. The expression of fifteen gene transcripts increased significantly in Holstein-Friesian skin samples at tick attachment sites. The higher expression of many genes involved in innate inflammatory processes in the Holstein-Friesian animals at tick attachment sites suggests this breed is exhibiting a non-directed pathological response to infestation. Of the forty-four genes analysed, no transcripts were detected in higher abundance at tick attachment sites in the Brahman cattle compared with similar samples from the Holstein-Friesian group, nor difference between attachment site and non-attachment site samples within the Brahman group. The results presented here suggest that the means by which these two cattle breeds respond to tick infestation differ and warrant further investigation.

Relocation of Intensive Agriculture to Northern Australia: The Case of the Rice Industry

Development of new agricultural industries in northern Australia is seen as a way to provide food security in the face of reduced water availability in existing regions in the south. This report aims to identify some of the possible economic consequences of developing a rice industry in the Burdekin region, while there is a reduction of output in the Riverina. Annual rice production in the Riverina peaked at 1.7 M tonnes, but the long-term outlook, given climate change impacts on that region and government water buy-backs, is more likely to be less than 800,000 tonnes. Growers are highly efficient water users by international standards, but the ability to offset an anticipated reduction in water availability through further efficiency gains is limited. In recent years growers in the Riverina have diversified their farms to a greater extent and secondary production systems include beef, sheep and wheat. Production in north Queensland is in its infancy, but a potentially suitable farming system has been developed by including rice within the sugarcane system without competition and in fact contributing to the production of sugar by increasing yields and controlling weeds. The economic outcomes are estimated a large scale, dynamic, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the world economy (Tasman Global), scaled down to regional level. CGE models mimic the workings of the economy through a system of interdependent behavioural and accounting equations which are linked to an input-output database. When an economic shock or change is applied to a model, each of the markets adjusts according to the set of behavioural parameters which are underpinned by economic theory. In this study the model is driven by reducing production in the Riverina in accordance with relationships found between water availability and the production of rice and replacement by other crops and by increasing ride production in the Burdekin. Three scenarios were considered: • Scenario 1: Rice is grown using the fallow period between the last ratoon crop of sugarcane and the new planting. In this scenario there is no competition between rice and sugarcane • Scenario 2: Rice displaces sugarcane production • Scenario 3: Rice is grown on additional land and does not compete with sugarcane. Two time periods were used, 2030 and 2070, which are the conventional time points to consider climate change impacts. Under scenario 1, real economic output declines in the Riverina by $45 million in 2030 and by $139 million in 2070. This is only partially offset by the increased real economic output in the Burdekin of $35 million and $131 million respectively.

Rabbit haemorrhagic disease: are Australian rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) evolving resistance to infection with Czech CAPM 351 RHDV?

Rabbit haemorrhagic disease is a major tool for the management of introduced, wild rabbits in Australia. However, new evidence suggests that rabbits may be developing resistance to the disease. Rabbits sourced from wild populations in central and southeastern Australia, and domestic rabbits for comparison, were experimentally challenged with a low 60 ID50 oral dose of commercially available Czech CAPM 351 virus - the original strain released in Australia. Levels of resistance to infection were generally higher than for unselected domestic rabbits and also differed (0-73% infection rates) between wild populations. Resistance was lower in populations from cooler, wetter regions and also low in arid regions with the highest resistance seen within zones of moderate rainfall. These findings suggest the external influences of non-pathogenic calicivirus in cooler, wetter areas and poor recruitment in arid populations may influence the development rate of resistance in Australia.

First report of Vialaea minutella in Australia, its association with mango branch dieback and systematic placement of Vialaea in the Xylariales

Vialaea minutella was consistently isolated from infected mango trees showing branch dieback symptoms in northern Queensland. The fungus was identified by morphology and confirmed with molecular sequence data. This is the first report of V. minutella in Australia. The systematic position of Vialaea was confirmed to be in the Xylariales based on reconstructed LSU sequence data.

Integrating pest population models with biophysical crop models to better represent the farming system

Farming systems frameworks such as the Agricultural Production Systems simulator (APSIM) represent fluxes through the soil, plant and atmosphere of the system well, but do not generally consider the biotic constraints that function within the system. We designed a method that allowed population models built in DYMEX to interact with APSIM. The simulator engine component of the DYMEX population-modelling platform was wrapped within an APSIM module allowing it to get and set variable values in other APSIM models running in the simulation. A rust model developed in DYMEX is used to demonstrate how the developing rust population reduces the crop's green leaf area. The success of the linking process is seen in the interaction of the two models and how changes in rust population on the crop's leaves feedback to the APSIM crop modifying the growth and development of the crop's leaf area. This linking of population models to simulate pest populations and biophysical models to simulate crop growth and development increases the complexity of the simulation, but provides a tool to investigate biotic constraints within farming systems and further moves APSIM towards being an agro-ecological framework.

Grazing impacts on the susceptibility of rangelands to wind erosion: The effects of stocking rate, stocking strategy and land condition

An estimated 110 Mt of dust is eroded by wind from the Australian land surface each year, most of which originates from the arid and semi-arid rangelands. Livestock production is thought to increase the susceptibility of the rangelands to wind erosion by reducing vegetation cover and modifying surface soil stability. However, research is yet to quantify the impacts of grazing land management on the erodibility of the Australian rangelands, or determine how these impacts vary among land types and over time. We present a simulation analysis that links a pasture growth and animal production model (GRASP) to the Australian Land Erodibility Model (AUSLEM) to evaluate the impacts of stocking rate, stocking strategy and land condition on the erodibility of four land types in western Queensland, Australia. Our results show that declining land condition, over stocking, and using inflexible stocking strategies have potential to increase land erodibility and amplify accelerated soil erosion. However, land erodibility responses to grazing are complex and influenced by land type sensitivities to different grazing strategies and local climate characteristics. Our simulations show that land types which are more resilient to livestock grazing tend to be least susceptible to accelerated wind erosion. Increases in land erodibility are found to occur most often during climatic transitions when vegetation cover is most sensitive to grazing pressure. However, grazing effects are limited during extreme wet and dry periods when the influence of climate on vegetation cover is strongest. Our research provides the opportunity to estimate the effects of different land management practices across a range of land types, and provides a better understanding of the mechanisms of accelerated erosion resulting from pastoral activities. The approach could help further assessment of land erodibility at a broader scale notably if combined with wind erosion models.

Exploring the Potential Impacts of Climate Variability on Spring Wheat Yield with the APSIM Decision Support Tool

Assessing the impacts of climate variability on agricultural productivity at regional, national or global scale is essential for defining adaptation and mitigation strategies. We explore in this study the potential changes in spring wheat yields at Swift Current and Melfort, Canada, for different sowing windows under projected climate scenarios (i.e., the representative concentration pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). First, the APSIM model was calibrated and evaluated at the study sites using data from long term experimental field plots. Then, the impacts of change in sowing dates on final yield were assessed over the 2030-2099 period with a 1990-2009 baseline period of observed yield data, assuming that other crop management practices remained unchanged. Results showed that the performance of APSIM was quite satisfactory with an index of agreement of 0.80, R2 of 0.54, and mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of 529 kg/ha and 1023 kg/ha, respectively (MAE = 476 kg/ha and RMSE = 684 kg/ha in calibration phase). Under the projected climate conditions, a general trend in yield loss was observed regardless of the sowing window, with a range from -24 to -94 depending on the site and the RCP, and noticeable losses during the 2060s and beyond (increasing CO2 effects being excluded). Smallest yield losses obtained through earlier possible sowing date (i.e., mid-April) under the projected future climate suggested that this option might be explored for mitigating possible adverse impacts of climate variability. Our findings could therefore serve as a basis for using APSIM as a decision support tool for adaptation/mitigation options under potential climate variability within Western Canada.

Agronomic benefits and risks associated with the irrigated peanut–maize production system under a changing climate in northern Australia

With the aim of increasing peanut production in Australia, the Australian peanut industry has recently considered growing peanuts in rotation with maize at Katherine in the Northern Territory—a location with a semi-arid tropical climate and surplus irrigation capacity. We used the well-validated APSIM model to examine potential agronomic benefits and long-term risks of this strategy under the current and warmer climates of the new region. Yield of the two crops, irrigation requirement, total soil organic carbon (SOC), nitrogen (N) losses and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were simulated. Sixteen climate stressors were used; these were generated by using global climate models ECHAM5, GFDL2.1, GFDL2.0 and MRIGCM232 with a median sensitivity under two Special Report of Emissions Scenarios over the 2030 and 2050 timeframes plus current climate (baseline) for Katherine. Effects were compared at three levels of irrigation and three levels of N fertiliser applied to maize grown in rotations of wet-season peanut and dry-season maize (WPDM), and wet-season maize and dry-season peanut (WMDP). The climate stressors projected average temperature increases of 1°C to 2.8°C in the dry (baseline 24.4°C) and wet (baseline 29.5°C) seasons for the 2030 and 2050 timeframes, respectively. Increased temperature caused a reduction in yield of both crops in both rotations. However, the overall yield advantage of WPDM increased from 41% to up to 53% compared with the industry-preferred sequence of WMDP under the worst climate projection. Increased temperature increased the irrigation requirement by up to 11% in WPDM, but caused a smaller reduction in total SOC accumulation and smaller increases in N losses and GHG emission compared with WMDP. We conclude that although increased temperature will reduce productivity and total SOC accumulation, and increase N losses and GHG emissions in Katherine or similar northern Australian environments, the WPDM sequence should be preferable over the industry-preferred sequence because of its overall yield and sustainability advantages in warmer climates. Any limitations of irrigation resulting from climate change could, however, limit these advantages.