From inferential statistics to climate knowledge

Climate variability and change are risk factors for climate sensitive activities such as agriculture. Managing these risks requires "climate knowledge", i.e. a sound understanding of causes and consequences of climate variability and knowledge of potential management options that are suitable in light of the climatic risks posed. Often such information about prognostic variables (e.g. yield, rainfall, run-off) is provided in probabilistic terms (e.g. via cumulative distribution functions, CDF), whereby the quantitative assessments of these alternative management options is based on such CDFs. Sound statistical approaches are needed in order to assess whether difference between such CDFs are intrinsic features of systems dynamics or chance events (i.e. quantifying evidences against an appropriate null hypothesis). Statistical procedures that rely on such a hypothesis testing framework are referred to as "inferential statistics" in contrast to descriptive statistics (e.g. mean, median, variance of population samples, skill scores). Here we report on the extension of some of the existing inferential techniques that provides more relevant and adequate information for decision making under uncertainty.

A lesson from cyclone Larry: An untold story of the success of good coastal planning

When tropical cyclone Larry crossed the Queensland coast on 20 March 2006, commercial, recreational and naval vessels in the port of Cairns, 60 km north of the eye of the cyclone and others closer to the eye, were protected from the destructive winds by sheltering in deep mangrove creeks in Trinity Inlet and off other coastal rivers. The Trinity Inlet mangroves are protected under the comprehensive multi-use Trinity Inlet Management Plan, agreed by the local and state government agencies (Cairns City Council, the Cairns Port Authority and the Queensland Government). Using this Australian example and one from the town of Palompon in Leyte province, central Philippines, we show how long-term mangrove habitat protection resulting from well-conceived coastal planning can deliver important economic and infrastructure benefits.

Uncertainty in length measurements of live coral trout: implications for compliance and enforcement of minimum legal size limits.

Report on evidence of shrinkage of live coral trout during professional fishing operations on the Great Barrier Reef in 2000. Excel data includes the following fields: Column A. Fish (fish number from 1 -24) Column B. Bin (1-8, container the fish was held in during the experiment) Column C. Measure (1-7, number of the measurement of each fish) Column D. Observer (1 or 2, making the measurement) Column E. Time 2 Column F. Time (time of the day the measurement was made) Column G. FL (Fork Length) Column H. TL (Total Length) Column I. Difference (difference in length between measures) Column J. Order Column K. Temperature (surface water temp under the boat)