Risk management strategies using seasonal climate forecasting in irrigated cotton production: a tale of stochastic dominance.

Decision-making in agriculture is carried out in an uncertain environment with farmers often seeking information to reduce risk. As a result of the extreme variability of rainfall and stream-flows in north-eastern Australia, water supplies for irrigated agriculture are a limiting factor and a source of risk. The present study examined the use of seasonal climate forecasting (SCF) when calculating planting areas for irrigated cotton in the northern Murray Darling Basin. Results show that minimising risk by adjusting plant areas in response to SCF can lead to significant gains in gross margin returns. However, how farmers respond to SCF is dependent on several other factors including irrigators’ attitude towards risk.

Flood related loss and recovery of intertidal seagrass meadows in southern Queensland, Australia

The loss and recovery of intertidal seagrass meadows were assessed following the flood related catastrophic loss of seagrass meadows in February 1999 in the Sandy Strait, Queensland. Region wide recovery rates of intertidal meadows following the catastrophic disturbance were assessed by mapping seagrass abundance in the northern Great Sandy Strait region prior to and on 3 occasions after widespread loss of seagrass. Meadow-scale assessments of seagrass loss and recovery focussed on two existing Zostera capricorni monitoring meadows in the region. Mapping surveys showed that approximately 90% of intertidal seagrasses in the northern Great Sandy Strait disappeared after the February 1999 flooding of the Mary River. Full recovery of all seagrass meadows took 3 years. At the two study sites (Urangan and Wanggoolba Creek) the onset of Z. capricorni germination following the loss of seagrass occurred 14 months post-flood at Wanggoolba Creek, and at Urangan it took 20 months for germination to occur. By February 2001 (24 months post-flood) seagrass abundance at Wanggoolba Creek sites was comparable to pre-flood abundance levels and full recovery at Urangan sites was complete in August 2001 (31 months post-flood). Reduced water quality characterised by 2–3 fold increases in turbidity and nutrient concentrations during the 6 months following the flood was followed by a 95% loss of seagrass meadows in the region. Reductions in available light due to increased flood associated turbidity in February 1999 were the likely cause of seagrass loss in the Great Sandy Strait region, southern Queensland. Although seasonal cues influence the germination of Z. capricorni, the temporal variation in the onset of seed germination between sites suggests that germination following seagrass loss may be dependent on other factors (eg. physical and chemical characteristics of sediments and water). Elevated dissolved nitrogen concentrations during 1999 at Wanggoolba Creek suggest that this site received higher loads of sediments and nutrients from flood waters than Urangan. The germination of seeds at Wanggoolba Creek one year prior to Urangan coincides with relatively low suspended sediment concentrations in Wanggoolba Creek waters. The absence of organic rich sediments at Urangan for many months following their removal during the 1999 flood may also have inhibited seed germination. Data from population cohort analyses and population growth rates showed that rhizome weight and rhizome elongation rates increased over time, consistent with rapid growth during increases in temperature and light availability from May to October

Frequency and precision of aerial surveys for kangaroo management

The appropriate frequency and precision for surveys of wildlife populations represent a trade-off between survey cost and the risk of making suboptimal management decisions because of poor survey data. The commercial harvest of kangaroos is primarily regulated through annual quotas set as proportions of absolute estimates of population size. Stochastic models were used to explore the effects of varying precision, survey frequency and harvest rate on the risk of quasiextinction for an arid-zone and a more mesic-zone kangaroo population. Quasiextinction probability increases in a sigmoidal fashion as survey frequency is reduced. The risk is greater in more arid regions and is highly sensitive to harvest rate. An appropriate management regime involves regular surveys in the major harvest areas where harvest rate can be set close to the maximum sustained yield. Outside these areas, survey frequency can be reduced in relatively mesic areas and reduced in arid regions when combined with lowered harvest rates. Relative to other factors, quasiextinction risk is only affected by survey precision (standard error/mean × 100) when it is >50%, partly reflecting the safety of the strategy of harvesting a proportion of a population estimate.

Genetic variation within two sympatric spotted gum eucalypts exceeds between taxa variation

Population substructure and hybridization, among other factors, have the potential to cause erroneous associations in linkage disequilibrium (LD) mapping. Two closely related spotted gum eucalypts, Corymbia variegata and C. henryi (Myrtaceae) occur in sympatry in the east coast of Australia and potentially interbreed. They are morphologically similar but are distinguished as separate species based on capsule and foliage size. To determine whether they hybridize in nature and its implications for LD mapping, we investigated the level of molecular divergence between the two species at two sympatric locations separated by 300 kilometres. Very few individuals of intermediate morphology were identified, despite the two species occurring only metres apart. Analysis of genetic structure using 12 microsatellite loci showed that genetic differentiation between populations of the same species at different locations (FST = 0.07 for both species; p = 0.0001) was significantly higher than that observed between species at each location (mean FST = 0.02 and 0.04 for Cherry tree and Bunyaville respectively; p = 0.0001; all Mann-Whitney U-test p ≤ 0.01). No species-specific alleles or significant allele frequency differences were detected within a site, suggesting recurrent local gene flow between the two species. The lack of significant allele frequency differences implies no population stratification along taxonomic lines. This suggested that there is little concern for cryptic hybridization when sampling from sites of sympatry for LD mapping.

Between-tree variation in fruit quality and fruit mineral concentrations of Hass avocados

Inconsistent internal fruit quality in Hass avocados affects consumer confidence. To determine the influence of individual trees on fruit quality, Hass avocado fruit were harvested from adjacent trees of similar external appearance in 3 commercial orchards in 1998 and 1 orchard in 1999. The trees in each orchard were grown with similar commercial practices and in similar soil types. Within each location, there were significant (P<0.05) differences in the mean ripe fruit quality between trees with respect to fruit body rot severity (mainly anthracnose) with and without cold storage, internal disorders severity due to diffuse discolouration and vascular browning (after cold storage), days to ripen, percentage dry matter, and the percentage of the skin area with purple-black colour when ripe. These effects were also noted in the same orchard in 1999. There were significant (P<0.05) differences in fruit flesh calcium, magnesium, potassium, boron and zinc concentrations between trees. Significant (P<0.05) correlations were observed between average fruit mineral concentrations in each tree (particularly calcium, magnesium and potassium) and body rot severity, percentage dry matter and fruit mass. There was little conclusive evidence that characteristics such as the growth of the non-suberised roots or the degree of scion under- or overgrowth was involved in these tree effects; however, differences between trees with respect to other rootstock characteristics may be involved. The inconsistency of the correlations across sites and years suggested that other factors apart from tree influences could also affect the relationship between fruit minerals and fruit quality.

Evidence of a latitudinal gradient in spider diversity in Australian cotton

The most common explanation for species diversity increasing towards the tropics is the corresponding increase in habitats (spatial heterogeneity). Consequently, a monoculture (like cotton in Australia) which is grown along a latitudinal gradient, should have the same degree of species diversity throughout its range. We tested to see if diversity in a dominant cotton community (spiders) changed with latitude, and if the community was structurally identical in different parts of Australia. We sampled seven sites extending over 20 degrees of latitude. At each site we sampled 1-3 fields 3-5 times during the cotton growing season using pitfall traps and beatsheets, recording all the spiders collected to family. We found that spider communities in cotton are diverse, including a large range of foraging guilds, making them suitable for a conservation biological control programme. We also found that spider diversity increased from high to low latitudes, and the communities were different, even though the spiders were in the same monocultural habitat. Spider beatsheet communities around Australia were dominated by different families, and responded differently to seasonal changes, indicating that different pest groups would be targeted at different locations. These results show that diversity can increase from high to low latitudes, even if spatial heterogeneity is held constant, and that other factors external to the cotton crop are influencing spider species composition. Other models which may account for the latitudinal gradient, such as non-equilibrium regional processes, are discussed.

Australian Bat Lyssavirus

In Chapter 1, the literature relating to rabies virus and the rabies like lyssaviruses is reviewed. In Chapter 2, data are presented from 1170 diagnostic submissions for ABLV testing by fluorescent antibody test (Centocor FAT). All 27 non-bat submissions were ABLV-negative. Of 1143 bat accessions 74 (16%) were ABLV-positive, including 69 of 974 (7.1%) flying foxes (Pteropus spp.), 5 of 7 (71.4%) Saccolaimus flaviventris (Yellow-bellied sheathtail bats), none of 151 other microchiropteran bats, and none of 11 unidentified bats. Statistical analysis of data from 868 wild Black, Grey-headed, Little Red and Spectacled flying foxes (Pteropus alecto, P. poliocephalus, P. scapulatus, and P. conspicillatus) indicated that three factors; species, health status and age were associated with significant (p< 0.001) differences in the proportion of ABLV-positive bats. Other factors including sex, whether the bat bit a person or animal, region, year, and season submitted, were not associated with ABLV. Case data for 74 ABLV-positive bats, including the circumstances in which they were found and clinical signs, is presented. In Chapter 3, the aetiological diagnosis was investigated for 100 consecutive flying fox submissions with neurological signs. ABLV (32%), spinal and head injuries (29%), and neuro-angiostrongylosis (18%) accounted for most neurological syndromes in flying foxes. No evidence of lead poisoning was found in unwell (n=16) or healthy flying foxes (n=50). No diagnosis was reached for 16 cases, all of which were negative for ABLV by TaqMan PCR. The molecular diversity of ABLV was examined in Chapter 4 by sequencing 36 bases of the leader sequence, the entire N gene, and start of the P gene of 28 isolates from pteropid bats and 3 isolates from Yellow-bellied sheathtail (YBST) bats. Phylogenetic analysis indicated all ABLV isolates clustered together as a discrete group within the Lyssavirus genera closely related to rabies virus and European bat lyssavirus-2 isolates. The ABLV lineage consisted of two variants; one (ybst-ABLV) consisted of isolates only from YBST bats, the other (pteropid-ABLV) was common to Black, Grey-headed and Little Red flying foxes. No associations were found between the sequences and either the geographical location or year found, or individual flying fox species. In Chapter 5, 15 inocula prepared from the brains or salivary glands of naturally-infected bats were evaluated by intracerebral (IC) and footpad (FP) inoculation of Quackenbush mice in order to select and characterize a highly virulent inoculum for further use in bats (Inoculum 5). In Chapter 6, nine Grey-headed flying foxes were inoculated with 105.2 to 105.5 MICED50 of Inoculum 5 divided into four sites, left footpad, pectoral muscle, temporal muscle and muzzle. Another bat was inoculated with half this dose divided into the footpad and pectoral muscle only. Seven of 10 bats developed clinical disease of 1 to 4 days duration between PI-days 10 and 19 and were shown to be ABL-positive by FAT, HAM immunoperoxidase staining, virus isolation in mice, and TaqMan PCR. Five of the seven bats displayed overt aggression, one died during a seizure, and one showed intractable agitation, pacing, tremors, and ataxia. Viral antigen was demonstrated throughout the central and peripheral nervous systems and in the epithelial cells of the submandibular salivary glands (n=4). All affected bats had mild to moderate non-suppurative meningoencephalitis and severe ganglioneuritis. No ABLV was detected in three bats that remained well until the end of the experiment on day 82. One survivor developed a strong but transient antibody response. In Chapter 7, the relative virulence of inocula prepared from the brains and salivary glands of experimentally infected flying foxes was evaluated in mice by IC and FP inoculation and TaqMan assay. The effects in mice were correlated to the TaqMan CT value and indicated a crude association between virulence and CT value that has potential application in the selection of inocula. In Chapter 8, 36 Black and Grey-headed flying foxes were vaccinated with one (day 0) or two (+ day 28) doses of Nobivac rabies vaccine and co-vaccinated with keyhole limpet haemocyanin (KLH). All bats responded to the Nobivac vaccine with a rabies-RFFIT titer > 0.5 IU/mL that is nominally indicative of protective immunity. Plasma from bats with rabies titres >2 IU/mL had cross-neutralising ABLV titres >1:154. A specifically developed ELISA detected a strong but transient response to KLH.

Ocean dispersal modelling for propagules of pond apple (Annona glabra L.)

Pond apple invades riparian and coastal environments with water acting as the main vector for dispersal. As seeds float and can reach the ocean, a seed tracking model driven by near surface ocean currents was used to develop maps of potential seed dispersal. Seeds were ‘released’ in the model from sites near the mouths of major North Queensland rivers. Most seeds reach land within three months of release, settling predominately on windward-facing locations. During calm and monsoonal conditions, seeds were generally swept in a southerly direction, however movement turns northward during south easterly trade winds. Seeds released in February from the Johnstone River were capable of being moved anywhere from 100 km north to 150 km south depending on prevailing conditions. Although wind driven currents are the primary mechanism influencing seed dispersal, tidal currents, the East Australian Current, and other factors such as coastline orientation, release location and time also play an important role in determining dispersal patterns. In extreme events such as tropical cyclone Justin in 1997, north east coast rivers could potentially transport seed over 1300 km to the Torres Strait, Papua New Guinea and beyond.

Tools to manage climate risk in cropping (Australia).

Because of the variable and changing environment, advisors and farmers are seeking systems that provide risk management support at a number of time scales. The Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit, Toowoomba, Australia has developed a suite of tools to assist advisors and farmers to better manage risk in cropping. These tools range from simple rainfall analysis tools (Rainman, HowWet, HowOften) through crop simulation tools (WhopperCropper and YieldProphet) to the most complex, APSFarm, a whole-farm analysis tool. Most are derivatives of the APSIM crop model. These tools encompass a range of complexity and potential benefit to both the farming community and for government policy. This paper describes, the development and usage of two specific products; WhopperCropper and APSFarm. WhopperCropper facilitates simulation-aided discussion of growers' exposure to risk when comparing alternative crop input options. The user can readily generate 'what-if' scenarios that separate the major influences whilst holding other factors constant. Interactions of the major inputs can also be tested. A manager can examine the effects of input levels (and Southern Oscillation Index phase) to broadly determine input levels that match their attitude to risk. APSFarm has been used to demonstrate that management changes can have different effects in short and long time periods. It can be used to test local advisors and farmers' knowledge and experience of their desired rotation system. This study has shown that crop type has a larger influence than more conservative minimum soil water triggers in the long term. However, in short term dry periods, minimum soil water triggers and maximum area of the various crops can give significant financial gains.

Assessing the effects of line capture and barotrauma relief procedures on post-release survival of key tropical reef fish species in Australia using recreational tagging clubs.

Common coral trout, Plectropomus leopardus Lacepede, crimson snapper, Lutjanus erythropterus Bloch, saddletail snapper, Lutjanus malabaricus (Bloch & Schneider), red emperor, Lutjanus sebae (Cuvier), redthroat emperor, Lethrinus miniatus (Schneider) and grass emperor, Lethrinus laticaudis Alleyne & Macleay, were tagged to determine the effects of barotrauma relief procedures (weighted shot-line release and venting using a hollow needle) and other factors on survival. Release condition was the most significant factor affecting the subsequent recapture rate of all species. Capture depth was significant in all species apart from L. malabaricus and L. miniatus, the general trend being reduced recapture probability with increasing capture depth. Recapture rates of fish hooked in either the lip or mouth were generally significantly higher than for those hooked in the throat or gut. Statistically significant benefit from treating fish for barotrauma was found in only L. malabaricus, but the lack of any negative effects of treating fish indicated that the practices of venting and shot-lining should not be discouraged by fisheries managers for these species.

Odour emissions from tunnel-ventilated broiler sheds: case study of nine Queensland farms.

Odour emission rates were measured from nine tunnel-ventilated broiler farms in south-eastern Queensland, Australia. At one farm, odour emission rates were measured over two sequential batches approximately weekly, while at the remaining farms, odour emission rates were measured just before the first pickup (around Day 35 of the batch) when bird liveweight was greatest and peak odour emission rates were expected. Odour samples were analysed using dynamic olfactometry (to AS/NZS 4323.3:2001), and an artificial olfaction system was used to continuously monitor odour emission rates at one farm. Odour emission rates ranged from 330 to 2960 ou/s per 1000 birds and from 0.19 to 2.12 ou/s.kg, with a significant amount of variability observed throughout the batch and throughout each sampling day. While the wide range in odour emission rates was primarily due to changes in bird liveweight and ventilation requirements, other factors were also involved. The artificial olfaction system proved useful for quantifying the range and variability of odour emission rates, especially when olfactometry analysis was impractical.

Estimating and influencing the duration of weed eradication programmes

1. Weed eradication efforts often must be sustained for long periods owing to the existence of persistent seed banks, among other factors. Decision makers need to consider both the amount of investment required and the period over which investment must be maintained when determining whether to commit to (or continue) an eradication programme. However, a basis for estimating eradication programme duration based on simple data has been lacking. Here, we present a stochastic dynamic model that can provide such estimates. 2. The model is based upon the rates of progression of infestations from the active to the monitoring state (i.e. no plants detected for at least 12 months), rates of reversion of infestations from monitoring to the active state and the frequency distribution of time since last detection for all infestations. Isoquants that illustrate the combinations of progression and reversion parameters corresponding to eradication within different time frames are generated. 3. The model is applied to ongoing eradication programmes targeting branched broomrape Orobanche ramosa and chromolaena Chromolaena odorata. The minimum periods in which eradication could potentially be achieved were 22 and 23 years, respectively. On the basis of programme performance until 2008, however, eradication is predicted to take considerably longer for both species (on average, 62 and 248 years, respectively). Performance of the branched broomrape programme could be best improved through reducing rates of reversion to the active state; for chromolaena, boosting rates of progression to the monitoring state is more important. 4. Synthesis and applications. Our model for estimating weed eradication programme duration, which captures critical transitions between a limited number of states, is readily applicable to any weed.Aparticular strength of the method lies in its minimal data requirements. These comprise estimates of maximum seed persistence and infested area, plus consistent annual records of the detection (or otherwise) of the weed in each infestation. This work provides a framework for identifying where improvements in management are needed and a basis for testing the effectiveness of alternative tactics. If adopted, our approach should help improve decision making with regard to eradication as a management strategy.

Organic diet development for black tiger prawns

The survival and growth of black tiger prawn (Penaeus monodon) juveniles (~3.3 g) were compared after feeding in tanks over one month with several prepared diets based on organically certified ingredients. The extrusion process in the manufacture of pelletised experimental diets was similar to processes used in commercial plants and was closely documented. The daily feeding rate (6% of starting mean body weight) was split equally into two feeds, one in the morning and one in the afternoon. All diets tested produced high survival (97-100%). A widely-used commercial Australian prawn feed was used as a control diet. It contained 41.2% protein with 29.5 g kg-1 lysine, and produced the highest (P<0.05) growth (117% weight gain). Three of the experimental organic diets tested (namely, 1. wheat + soy, 2. pig weaner diet + soy, and 3. pig weaner diet + dried fish waste) produced moderate growth (73–77% weight gain). These contained 33%, 36% or 31% protein, respectively, and produced better (P<0.05) growth than diets utilising a range of other prospective ingredients (eg: wheat + dried scallop gut, wheat + fish waste, wheat + chickpea, or wheat + macadamia meal, containing 23%, 25%, 29% or 24% protein, respectively). An unfed control-treatment produced the lowest (P<0.05) growth (4% weight gain). The water stability of the experimental diets that produced the best growth was poorer than the commercial diet, suggesting that improvements in this aspect of these organic feed’s manufacture could result in additional performance benefits and possibly reduced feed wastage. Analyses revealed a linear relationship between diet performance (in terms of weight gains) and the protein and lysine contents of diets. About 70% of diet performance was explained by these factors. The superior performance of the commercial diet could be attributed primarily to its formulation using mainly marine proteins, as well as a range of other unknown factors (commercial in confidence). These other factors range from use of feed attractants, better knowledge of ingredient nutrient availability, different extrusion conditions and the use of other unspecified micro-nutrients not present in the experimental diets. The organic diets studied still require a degree of fine-tuning before structured commercial uptake. This would sensibly include further detailed investigations of the composition and nutrient availabilities of these and other organic dietary ingredients, and refinement of the extrusion process for formulated diets.

Population dynamics of Thaumastocoris peregrinus in Eucalyptus plantations of South Africa

Thaumastocoris peregrinus is a sap-sucking insect that infests non-native Eucalyptus plantations in Africa, New Zealand, South America and parts of Southern Europe, in addition to street trees in parts of its native range of Australia. In South Africa, pronounced fluctuations in the population densities have been observed. To characterise spatiotemporal variability in T. peregrinus abundance and the factors that might influence it, we monitored adult population densities at six sites in the main eucalypt growing regions of South Africa. At each site, twenty yellow sticky traps were monitored weekly for 30 months, together with climatic data. We also characterised the influence of temperature on growth and survival experimentally and used this to model how temperature may influence population dynamics. T. peregrinus was present throughout the year at all sites, with annual site-specific peaks in abundance. Peaks occurred during autumn (February-April) for the Pretoria site, summer (November-January) for the Zululand site and spring (August-October) for the Tzaneen, Sabie and Piet Retief monitoring sites. Temperature (both experimental and field-collected), humidity and rainfall were mostly weakly, or not at all, associated with population fluctuations. It is clear that a complex interaction of these and other factors (e.g. host quality) influence population fluctuations in an annual, site specific cycle. The results obtained not only provide insights into the biology of T. peregrinus, but will also be important for future planning of monitoring and control programs using semiochemicals, chemical insecticides or biological control agents. © 2014 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Population dynamics of Thaumastocoris peregrinus in Eucalyptus plantations of South Africa

Thaumastocoris peregrinus is a sap-sucking insect that infests non-native Eucalyptus plantations in Africa, New Zealand, South America and parts of Southern Europe, in addition to street trees in parts of its native range of Australia. In South Africa, pronounced fluctuations in the population densities have been observed. To characterise spatiotemporal variability in T. peregrinus abundance and the factors that might influence it, we monitored adult population densities at six sites in the main eucalypt growing regions of South Africa. At each site, twenty yellow sticky traps were monitored weekly for 30 months, together with climatic data. We also characterised the influence of temperature on growth and survival experimentally and used this to model how temperature may influence population dynamics. T. peregrinus was present throughout the year at all sites, with annual site-specific peaks in abundance. Peaks occurred during autumn (February–April) for the Pretoria site, summer (November–January) for the Zululand site and spring (August–October) for the Tzaneen, Sabie and Piet Retief monitoring sites. Temperature (both experimental and field-collected), humidity and rainfall were mostly weakly, or not at all, associated with population fluctuations. It is clear that a complex interaction of these and other factors (e.g. host quality) influence population fluctuations in an annual, site specific cycle. The results obtained not only provide insights into the biology of T. peregrinus, but will also be important for future planning of monitoring and control programs using semiochemicals, chemical insecticides or biological control agents.