Rainfall and streamflow response to El Niño Southern Oscillation: a case study in a semiarid catchment, Australia.

This paper aims to compare the shift in frequency distribution and skill of seasonal climate forecasting of both streamflow and rainfall in eastern Australia based on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) Phase system. Recent advances in seasonal forecasting of climate variables have highlighted opportunities for improving decision making in natural resources management. Forecasting of rainfall probabilities for different regions in Australia is available, but the use of similar forecasts for water resource supply has not been developed. The use of streamflow forecasts may provide better information for decision-making in irrigation supply and flow management for improved ecological outcomes. To examine the relative efficacy of seasonal forecasting of streamflow and rainfall, the shift in probability distributions and the forecast skill were evaluated using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test and the linear error in probability space (LEPS) skill score, respectively, at three river gauging stations in the Border Rivers Catchment of the Murray-Darling Basin in eastern Australia. A comparison of rainfall and streamflow distributions confirms higher statistical significance in the shift of streamflow distribution than that in rainfall distribution. Moreover, streamflow distribution showed greater skill of forecasting with 0-3 month lead time, compared to rainfall distribution.

Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall

The accuracy of synoptic-based weather forecasting deteriorates rapidly after five days and is not routinely available beyond 10 days. Conversely, climate forecasts are generally not feasible for periods of less than 3 months, resulting in a weather-climate gap. The tropical atmospheric phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has a return interval of 30 to 80 days that might partly fill this gap. Our near-global analysis demonstrates that the MJO is a significant phenomenon that can influence daily rainfall patterns, even at higher latitudes, via teleconnections with broadscale mean sea level pressure (MSLP) patterns. These weather states provide a mechanistic basis for an MJO-based forecasting capacity that bridges the weather-climate divide. Knowledge of these tropical and extra-tropical MJO-associated weather states can significantly improve the tactical management of climate-sensitive systems such as agriculture.

Frequency and precision of aerial surveys for kangaroo management

The appropriate frequency and precision for surveys of wildlife populations represent a trade-off between survey cost and the risk of making suboptimal management decisions because of poor survey data. The commercial harvest of kangaroos is primarily regulated through annual quotas set as proportions of absolute estimates of population size. Stochastic models were used to explore the effects of varying precision, survey frequency and harvest rate on the risk of quasiextinction for an arid-zone and a more mesic-zone kangaroo population. Quasiextinction probability increases in a sigmoidal fashion as survey frequency is reduced. The risk is greater in more arid regions and is highly sensitive to harvest rate. An appropriate management regime involves regular surveys in the major harvest areas where harvest rate can be set close to the maximum sustained yield. Outside these areas, survey frequency can be reduced in relatively mesic areas and reduced in arid regions when combined with lowered harvest rates. Relative to other factors, quasiextinction risk is only affected by survey precision (standard error/mean × 100) when it is >50%, partly reflecting the safety of the strategy of harvesting a proportion of a population estimate.

High frequency fire alters C:N:P stoichiometry in forest litter

Fire is a major driver of ecosystem change and can disproportionately affect the cycling of different nutrients. Thus, a stoichiometric approach to investigate the relationships between nutrient availability and microbial resource use during decomposition is likely to provide insight into the effects of fire on ecosystem functioning. We conducted a field litter bag experiment to investigate the long-term impact of repeated fire on the stoichiometry of leaf litter C, N and P pools, and nutrient-acquiring enzyme activities during decomposition in a wet sclerophyll eucalypt forest in Queensland, Australia. Fire frequency treatments have been maintained since 1972, including burning every two years (2yrB), burning every four years (4yrB) and no burning (NB). C:N ratios in freshly fallen litter were 29-42% higher and C:P ratios were 6-25% lower for 2yrB than NB during decomposition, with correspondingly lower 2yrB N:P ratios (27-32) than for NB (34-49). Trends in litter soluble and microbial N:P ratios were similar to the overall litter N:P ratios across fire treatments. Consistent with these, the ratio of activities for N-acquiring to P-acquiring enzymes in litter was higher for 2yrB than NB while 4yrB was generally intermediate between 2yrB and NB. Decomposition rates of freshly fallen litter were significantly lower for 2yrB (72±2% mass remaining at the end of experiment) than for 4yrB (59±3%) and NB (62±3%), a difference that may be related to effects of N limitation, lower moisture content, and/or litter C quality. Results for older mixed-age litter were similar to those for freshly fallen litter although treatment differences were less pronounced. Overall, these findings show that frequent fire (2yrB) decoupled N and P cycling, as manifested in litter C:N:P stoichiometry and in microbial biomass N:P ratio and enzymatic activities. These data indicate that fire induced a transient shift to N-limited ecosystem conditions during the post-fire recovery phase. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.