Exploring profit - Sustainability trade-offs in cropping systems using evolutionary algorithms

Models that implement the bio-physical components of agro-ecosystems are ideally suited for exploring sustainability issues in cropping systems. Sustainability may be represented as a number of objectives to be maximised or minimised. However, the full decision space of these objectives is usually very large and simplifications are necessary to safeguard computational feasibility. Different optimisation approaches have been proposed in the literature, usually based on mathematical programming techniques. Here, we present a search approach based on a multiobjective evaluation technique within an evolutionary algorithm (EA), linked to the APSIM cropping systems model. A simple case study addressing crop choice and sowing rules in North-East Australian cropping systems is used to illustrate the methodology. Sustainability of these systems is evaluated in terms of economic performance and resource use. Due to the limited size of this sample problem, the quality of the EA optimisation can be assessed by comparison to the full problem domain. Results demonstrate that the EA procedure, parameterised with generic parameters from the literature, converges to a useable solution set within a reasonable amount of time. Frontier ‘‘peels’’ or Pareto-optimal solutions as described by the multiobjective evaluation procedure provide useful information for discussion on trade-offs between conflicting objectives.

Optimal management of agricultural systems

To remain competitive, many agricultural systems are now being run along business lines. Systems methodologies are being incorporated, and here evolutionary computation is a valuable tool for identifying more profitable or sustainable solutions. However, agricultural models typically pose some of the more challenging problems for optimisation. This chapter outlines these problems, and then presents a series of three case studies demonstrating how they can be overcome in practice. Firstly, increasingly complex models of Australian livestock enterprises show that evolutionary computation is the only viable optimisation method for these large and difficult problems. On-going research is taking a notably efficient and robust variant, differential evolution, out into real-world systems. Next, models of cropping systems in Australia demonstrate the challenge of dealing with competing objectives, namely maximising farm profit whilst minimising resource degradation. Pareto methods are used to illustrate this trade-off, and these results have proved to be most useful for farm managers in this industry. Finally, land-use planning in the Netherlands demonstrates the size and spatial complexity of real-world problems. Here, GIS-based optimisation techniques are integrated with Pareto methods, producing better solutions which were acceptable to the competing organizations. These three studies all show that evolutionary computation remains the only feasible method for the optimisation of large, complex agricultural problems. An extra benefit is that the resultant population of candidate solutions illustrates trade-offs, and this leads to more informed discussions and better education of the industry decision-makers.

Optimal eradication: when to stop looking for an invasive plant

The notion of being sure that you have completely eradicated an invasive species is fanciful because of imperfect detection and persistent seed banks. Eradication is commonly declared either on an ad hoc basis, on notions of seed bank longevity, or on setting arbitrary thresholds of 1% or 5% confidence that the species is not present. Rather than declaring eradication at some arbitrary level of confidence, we take an economic approach in which we stop looking when the expected costs outweigh the expected benefits. We develop theory that determines the number of years of absent surveys required to minimize the net expected cost. Given detection of a species is imperfect, the optimal stopping time is a trade-off between the cost of continued surveying and the cost of escape and damage if eradication is declared too soon. A simple rule of thumb compares well to the exact optimal solution using stochastic dynamic programming. Application of the approach to the eradication programme of Helenium amarum reveals that the actual stopping time was a precautionary one given the ranges for each parameter.

Establishment and management of salt-tolerant amenity grasses to reduce urban salinity effect

This project built upon the successful outcomes of a previous project (TU02005) by adding to the database of salt tolerance among warm season turfgrass cultivars, through further hydroponic screening trials. Hydroponic screening trials focussed on new cultivars or cultivars that were not possible to cover in the time available under TU02005, including: 11 new cultivars of Paspalum vaginatum; 13 cultivars of Cynodon dactylon; six cultivars of Stenotaphrum secundatum; one accession of Cynodon transvaalensis; 12 Cynodon dactylon x transvaalensis hybrids; two cultivars of Sporobolus virginicus; five cultivars of Zoysia japonica; one cultivar of Z. macrantha, one common form of Z. tenuifolia and one Z. japonica x tenuifolia hybrid. The relative salinity tolerance of different turfgrasses is quantified in terms of their growth response to increasing levels of salinity, often defined by the salt level that equates to a 50% reduction in shoot yield, or alternatively the threshold salinity. The most salt tolerant species in these trials were Sporobolus virginicus and Paspalum vaginatum, consistent with the findings from TU02005 (Loch, Poulter et al. 2006). Cynodon dactylon showed the largest range in threshold values with some cultivars highly sensitive to salt, while others were tolerant to levels approaching that of the more halophytic grasses. Coupled with the observational and anecdotal evidence of high drought tolerance, this species and other intermediately tolerant species provide options for site specific situations in which soil salinity is coupled with additional challenges such as shade and high traffic conditions. By recognising the fact that a salt tolerant grass is not the complete solution to salinity problems, this project has been able to further investigate sustainable long-term establishment and management practices that maximise the ability of the selected grass to survive and grow under a particular set of salinity and usage parameters. Salt-tolerant turf grasses with potential for special use situations were trialled under field conditions at three sites within the Gold Coast City Council, while three sites, established under TU02005 within the Redland City Council boundaries were monitored for continued grass survival. Several randomised block experiments within Gold Coast City were established to compare the health and longevity of seashore paspalum (Paspalum vaginatum), Manila grass (Zoysia matrella), as well as the more tolerant cultivars of other species like buffalo grass (Stenotaphrum secundatum) and green couch (Cynodon dactylon). Whilst scientific results were difficult to achieve in the field situation, where conditions cannot be controlled, these trials provided valuable observational evidence of the likely survival of these species. Alternatives to laying full sod such as sprigging were investigated, and were found to be more appropriate for areas of low traffic as the establishment time is greater. Trials under controlled and protected conditions successfully achieved a full cover of Paspalum vaginatum from sprigs in a 10 week time frame. Salt affected sites are often associated with poor soil structure. Part of the research investigated techniques for the alleviation of soil compaction frequently found on saline sites. Various methods of soil de-compaction were investigated on highly compacted heavy clay soil in Redlands City. It was found that the heavy duplex soil of marine clay sediments required the most aggressive of treatments in order to achieve limited short-term effects. Interestingly, a well constructed sports field showed a far greater and longer term response to de-compaction operations, highlighting the importance of appropriate construction in the successful establishment and management of turfgrasses on salt affected sites. Fertiliser trials in this project determined plant demand for nitrogen (N) to species level. This work produced data that can be used as a guide when fertilising, in order to produce optimal growth and quality in the major turf grass species used in public parkland. An experiment commenced during TU02005 and monitored further in this project, investigated six representative warm-season turfgrasses to determine the optimum maintenance requirements for fertiliser N in south-east Queensland. In doing so, we recognised that optimum level is also related to use and intensity of use, with high profile well-used parks requiring higher maintenance N than low profile parks where maintaining botanical composition at a lower level of turf quality might be acceptable. Kikuyu (Pennisetum clandestinum) seemed to require the greatest N input (300-400 kg N/ha/year), followed by the green couch (Cynodon dactylon) cultivars ‘Wintergreen’ and ‘FLoraTeX’ requiring approximately 300 kg N/ha/year for optimal condition and growth. ‘Sir Walter’ (Stenotaphrum secundatum) and ‘Sea Isle 1’ (Paspalum vaginatum) had a moderate requirement of approximately 200 kg/ha/year. ‘Aussiblue’ (Digitaria didactyla)maintained optimal growth and quality at 100-200 kg N/ha/year. A set of guidelines has been prepared to provide various options from the construction and establishment of new grounds, through to the remediation of existing parklands by supporting the growth of endemic grasses. They describe a best management process through which salt affected sites should be assessed, remediated and managed. These guidelines, or Best Management Practices, will be readily available to councils. Previously, some high salinity sites have been turfed several times over a number of years (and Council budgets) for a 100% failure record. By eliminating this budgetary waste through targeted workable solutions, local authorities will be more amenable to investing appropriate amounts into these areas. In some cases, this will lead to cost savings as well as resulting in better quality turf. In all cases, however, improved turf quality will be of benefit to ratepayers, directly through increased local use of open space in parks and sportsfields and indirectly by attracting tourists and other visitors to the region bringing associated economic benefits. At the same time, environmental degradation and erosion of soil in bare areas will be greatly reduced.

Developing agronomic solutions to improve barley yield and grain quality

The main aim of this project is to develop variety management packages to help tailor commercial malt and feed barley production in the Northern GRDC Region to commercial malt and feed barley specifications. Field trials are designed to give information.

Cropping solutions for the sugarcane farming systems of the Burdekin

The successful inclusion of break crops into the Burdekin sugar farming system will allow growers to diversify and capitalise on alternate crop income sources, particularly during cyclical downturns in sugar price. Secondly if cane productivity is improved through the inclusion of break crops, millers and growers stand to gain additional economic benefit compared to the current sugarcane monoculture.

DAN00106 Developing agronomic solutions to improve barley yield and grain quality

Producing management packages for new northern barley varieties. Evaluating silage barley varieties.

GM solutions to root diseases of cereals - A situation analysis and business case

Root disease causes about $503 million in losses annually to Australia's wheat and barley industries. Because of these large losses and in many cases the difficulty in reducing these losses through breeding or management, root diseases are candidates for solutions through genetic modification (GM). Through an extensive review of the scientific literature and patents, a range of approaches to GM solutions to root diseases are critically discussed. Given the high cost of regulatory approval for GM crops and a complex intellectual property (IP) landscape, it is likely that research in this area will be done in collaboration with international partners.

Continued delivery of applied solutions to weed issues in central Queensland

Developing best practices in Central Queensland to (a) manage difficult to control weeds; (b) improve herbicide efficacy under adverse conditions, and (c) manage weeds in wide-row crop systems.

Improved management of key northern region weeds: diverse problems, diverse solutions

The cropping region of northern Australia has a diverse range of cropping systems and weed flora. A fallow phase is commonly required between crops to enable the accumulation of stored soil water in these farming systems dominated by reduced tillage. During the fallow phase, weed control is important and is heavily reliant on herbicides. The most commonly used herbicide has been glyphosate. As a result of over-reliance on glyphosate, there are now seven confirmed glyphosate-resistant weeds and several glyphosate-tolerant species common in the region. As a result, the control of summer fallow weeds is become more complex. This paper outlines project work investigating improved weed control for summer fallows in the northern cropping region. Areas of research include weed ecology, chemical and non-chemical tactics, glyphosate resistance and resistance surveys. The project also has an economic and extension component. As a result of our research we have a better understanding of the ecology of major northern weeds and spread of glyphosate resistance in the region. We have identified and defined alternative herbicide and non-chemical approaches for the effective control of summer fallow weeds and have extended our research effectively to industry.

Issues and solutions for researching weed eradication target species

Species biology drives the frequency, duration and extent of survey and control activities in weed eradication programs. Researching the key biological characters can be difficult when plants occur at limited locations and are controlled immediately by field crews who are dedicated to preventing reproduction. Within the National Four Tropical Weeds Eradication Program and the former National Siam Weed Eradication Program, key information needed by the eradication teams has been obtained through a combination of field, glasshouse and laboratory studies without jeopardising the eradication objective. Information gained on seed longevity, age to reproductive maturity, dispersal and control options has been used to direct survey and control activities. Planned and opportunistic data collections will continue to provide biological information to refine eradication activities.

Deriving optimal fishing effort for managing Australia's Moreton Bay multispecies trawl fishery with aggregated effort data

Deriving an estimate of optimal fishing effort or even an approximate estimate is very valuable for managing fisheries with multiple target species. The most challenging task associated with this is allocating effort to individual species when only the total effort is recorded. Spatial information on the distribution of each species within a fishery can be used to justify the allocations, but often such information is not available. To determine the long-term overall effort required to achieve maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and maximum economic yield (MEY), we consider three methods for allocating effort: (i) optimal allocation, which optimally allocates effort among target species; (ii) fixed proportions, which chooses proportions based on past catch data; and (iii) economic allocation, which splits effort based on the expected catch value of each species. Determining the overall fishing effort required to achieve these management objectives is a maximizing problem subject to constraints due to economic and social considerations. We illustrated the approaches using a case study of the Moreton Bay Prawn Trawl Fishery in Queensland (Australia). The results were consistent across the three methods. Importantly, our analysis demonstrated the optimal total effort was very sensitive to daily fishing costs—the effort ranged from 9500–11 500 to 6000–7000, 4000 and 2500 boat-days, using daily cost estimates of $0, $500, $750, and $950, respectively. The zero daily cost corresponds to the MSY, while a daily cost of $750 most closely represents the actual present fishing cost. Given the recent debate on which costs should be factored into the analyses for deriving MEY, our findings highlight the importance of including an appropriate cost function for practical management advice. The approaches developed here could be applied to other multispecies fisheries where only aggregated fishing effort data are recorded, as the literature on this type of modelling is sparse.