Reconfiguring agriculture through the relocation of production systems for water, environment and food security under climate change

The prospect of climate change has revived both fears of food insecurity and its corollary, market opportunities for agricultural production. In Australia, with its long history of state-sponsored agricultural development, there is renewed interest in the agricultural development of tropical and sub-tropical northern regions. Climate projections suggest that there will be less water available to the main irrigation systems of the eastern central and southern regions of Australia, while net rainfall could be sustained or even increase in the northern areas. Hence, there could be more intensive use of northern agricultural areas, with the relocation of some production of economically important commodities such as vegetables, rice and cotton. The problem is that the expansion of cropping in northern Australia has been constrained by agronomic and economic considerations. The present paper examines the economics, at both farm and regional level, of relocating some cotton production from the east-central irrigation areas to the north where there is an existing irrigation scheme together with some industry and individual interest in such relocation. Integrated modelling and expert knowledge are used to examine this example of prospective climate change adaptation. Farm-level simulations show that without adaptation, overall gross margins will decrease under a combination of climate change and reduction in water availability. A dynamic regional Computable General Equilibrium model is used to explore two scenarios of relocating cotton production from south east Queensland, to sugar-dominated areas in northern Queensland. Overall, an increase in real economic output and real income was realized when some cotton production was relocated to sugar cane fallow land/new land. There were, however, large negative effects on regional economies where cotton production displaced sugar cane. It is concluded that even excluding the agronomic uncertainties, which are not examined here, there is unlikely to be significant market-driven relocation of cotton production.

Modelling the distribution and relative abundance of feral camels in the Northern Territory using count data

The objectives of this study were to predict the potential distribution, relative abundance and probability of habitat use by feral camels in southern Northern Territory. Aerial survey data were used to model habitat association. The characteristics of ‘used’ (where camels were observed) v. ‘unused’ (pseudo-absence) sites were compared. Habitat association and abundance were modelled using generalised additive model (GAM) methods. The models predicted habitat suitability and the relative abundance of camels in southern Northern Territory. The habitat suitability maps derived in the present study indicate that camels have suitable habitat in most areas of southern Northern Territory. The index of abundance model identified areas of relatively high camel abundance. Identifying preferred habitats and areas of high abundance can help focus control efforts.

Climatic-requirements models of cat's claw creeper Macfadyena unguis-cati (Bignoniaceae) to prioritise areas for exploration and release of biological control agents

Climate matching software (CLIMEX) was used to prioritise areas to explore for biological control agents in the native range of cat's claw creeper Macfadyena unguis-cati (Bignoniaceae), and to prioritise areas to release the agents in the introduced ranges of the plant. The native distribution of cat's claw creeper was used to predict the potential range of climatically suitable habitats for cat's claw creeper in its introduced ranges. A Composite Match Index (CMI) of cat's claw creeper was determined with the 'Match Climates' function in order to match the ranges in Australia and South Africa where the plant is introduced with its native range in South and Central America. This information was used to determine which areas might yield climatically-adapted agents. Locations in northern Argentina had CMI values which best matched sites with cat's claw creeper infestations in Australia and South Africa. None of the sites from where three currently prioritised biological control agents for cat's claw creeper were collected had CMI values higher than 0.8. The analysis showed that central and eastern Argentina, south Brazil, Uruguay and parts of Bolivia and Paraguay should be prioritised for exploration for new biological control agents for cat's claw creeper to be used in Australia and South Africa.

Defining and predicting the 'break of the season' for north-east Queensland grazing areas

For pasture growth in the semi-arid tropics of north-east Australia, where up to 80% of annual rainfall occurs between December and March, the timing and distribution of rainfall events is often more important than the total amount. In particular, the timing of the 'green break of the season' (GBOS) at the end of the dry season, when new pasture growth becomes available as forage and a live-weight gain is measured in cattle, affects several important management decisions that prevent overgrazing and pasture degradation. Currently, beef producers in the region use a GBOS rule based on rainfall (e. g. 40mm of rain over three days by 1 December) to define the event and make their management decisions. A survey of 16 beef producers in north-east Queensland shows three quarters of respondents use a rainfall amount that occurs in only half or less than half of all years at their location. In addition, only half the producers expect the GBOS to occur within two weeks of the median date calculated by the CSIRO plant growth days model GRIM. This result suggests that in the producer rules, either the rainfall quantity or the period of time over which the rain is expected, is unrealistic. Despite only 37% of beef producers indicating that they use a southern oscillation index (SOI) forecast in their decisions, cross validated LEPS (linear error in probability space) analyses showed both the average 3 month July-September SOI and the 2 month August-September SOI have significant forecast skill in predicting the probability of both the amount of wet season rainfall and the timing of the GBOS. The communication and implementation of a rigorous and realistic definition of the GBOS, and the likely impacts of anthropogenic climate change on the region are discussed in the context of the sustainable management of northern Australian rangelands.

The climate change risk management matrix for the grazing industry of northern Australia

The complexity, variability and vastness of the northern Australian rangelands make it difficult to assess the risks associated with climate change. In this paper we present a methodology to help industry and primary producers assess risks associated with climate change and to assess the effectiveness of adaptation options in managing those risks. Our assessment involved three steps. Initially, the impacts and adaptation responses were documented in matrices by ‘experts’ (rangeland and climate scientists). Then, a modified risk management framework was used to develop risk management matrices that identified important impacts, areas of greatest vulnerability (combination of potential impact and adaptive capacity) and priority areas for action at the industry level. The process was easy to implement and useful for arranging and analysing large amounts of information (both complex and interacting). Lastly, regional extension officers (after minimal ‘climate literacy’ training) could build on existing knowledge provided here and implement the risk management process in workshops with rangeland land managers. Their participation is likely to identify relevant and robust adaptive responses that are most likely to be included in regional and property management decisions. The process developed here for the grazing industry could be modified and used in other industries and sectors. By 2030, some areas of northern Australia will experience more droughts and lower summer rainfall. This poses a serious threat to the rangelands. Although the impacts and adaptive responses will vary between ecological and geographic systems, climate change is expected to have noticeable detrimental effects: reduced pasture growth and surface water availability; increased competition from woody vegetation; decreased production per head (beef and wool) and gross margin; and adverse impacts on biodiversity. Further research and development is needed to identify the most vulnerable regions, and to inform policy in time to facilitate transitional change and enable land managers to implement those changes.

Queensland Coastal Wetland Resources: the Northern Territory Border to Flinders River

Protection of coastal wetland environments is an important prerequisite to effective and sustainable fisheries management and conservation of habitats for the use of future generations. Mangroves, saltmarshes and seagrasses directly support local and offshore fisheries through the provision of food, shelter, breeding and nursery grounds. As such, these vegetated wetland environments along with sandbars, mudflats, rocky foreshores and reefs have significant economic value as well as their intrinsic aesthetic and ecological values. This report summarises the results of the mapping undertaken in the Gulf of Carpentaria Region from the Queensland/Northern Territory border eastwards to the western bank of the Flinders River (hereafter called the Gulf Study Area). The study was undertaken in order to: 1. document and map coastal wetlands of the Gulf Study Area; 2. document levels of existing disturbance to and protection of these wetlands; 3. examine existing recreational, indigenous and commercial fisheries of the region; 4. evaluate the conservation values of the areas investigated from the viewpoint of fisheries productivity and as habitat for important and/or threatened species for future FHA/Marine Protected Area (MPA) declaration. Dataset URL Link: Queensland Coastal Wetlands Resources Mapping data. [Dataset]

Determination of management units for grey mackerel fisheries in northern Australia.

The requirement for Queensland, Northern Territory and Western Australian jurisdictions to ensure sustainable harvest of fish resources and their optimal use relies on robust information on the resource status. For grey mackerel (Scomberomorus semifasciatus) fisheries, each of these jurisdictions has their own management regime in their corresponding waters. The lack of information on stock structure of grey mackerel, however, means that the appropriate spatial scale of management is not known. As well, fishers require assurance of future sustainability to encourage investment and long-term involvement in a fishery that supplies lucrative overseas markets. These management and fisher-unfriendly circumstances must be viewed in the context of recent 3-fold increases in catches of grey mackerel along the Queensland east coast, combined with significant and increasing catches in other parts of the species' northern Australian range. Establishing the stock structure of grey mackerel would also immensely improve the relevance of resource assessments for fishery management of grey mackerel across northern Australia. This highlighted the urgent need for stock structure information for this species. The impetus for this project came from the strategic recommendations of the FRDC review by Ward and Rogers (2003), "Northern mackerel (Scombridae: Scomberomorus): current and future research needs" (Project No. 2002/096), which promoted the urgency for information on the stock structure of grey mackerel. In following these recommendations this project adopted a multi-technique and phased sampling approach as carried out by Buckworth et al (2007), who examined the stock structure of Spanish mackerel, Scomberomorus commerson, across northern Australia. The project objectives were to determine the stock structure of grey mackerel across their northern Australian range, and use this information to define management units and their appropriate spatial scales. We used multiple techniques concurrently to determine the stock structure of grey mackerel. These techniques were: genetic analyses (mitochondrial DNA and microsatellite DNA), otolith (ear bones) isotope ratios, parasite abundances, and growth parameters. The advantage of using this type of multi-technique approach was that each of the different methods is informative about the fish’s life history at different spatial and temporal scales. Genetics can inform about the evolutionary patterns as well as rates of mixing of fish from adjacent areas, while parasites and otolith microchemistry are directly influenced by the environment and so will inform about the patterns of movement during the fishes lifetime. Growth patterns are influenced by both genetic and environmental factors. Due to these differences the use of these techniques concurrently increases the likelihood of detecting different stocks where they exist. We adopted a phased sampling approach whereby sampling was carried out at broad spatial scales in the first year: east coast, eastern Gulf of Carpentaria (GoC), western GoC, and the NW Northern Territory (NW NT). By comparing the fish samples from each of these locations, and using each of the techniques, we tested the null hypothesis that grey mackerel were comprised of a single homogeneous population across northern Australia. Having rejected the null hypothesis we re-sampled the 1st year locations to test for temporal stability in stock structure, and to assess stock structure at finer spatial scales. This included increased spatial coverage on the east coast, the GoC, and WA. From genetic approaches we determined that there at least four genetic stocks of grey mackerel across northern Australia: WA, NW NT (Timor/Arafura), the GoC and the east Grey mackerel management units in northern Australia ix coast. All markers revealed concordant patterns showing WA and NW NT to be clearly divergent stocks. The mtDNA D-loop fragment appeared to have more power to resolve stock boundaries because it was able to show that the GoC and east coast QLD stocks were genetically differentiated. Patterns of stock structure on a finer scale, or where stock boundaries are located, were less clear. From otolith stable isotope analyses four major groups of S. semifasciatus were identified: WA, NT/GoC, northern east coast and central east coast. Differences in the isotopic composition of whole otoliths indicate that these groups must have spent their life history in different locations. The magnitude of the difference between the groups suggests a prolonged separation period at least equal to the fish’s life span. The parasite abundance analyses, although did not include samples from WA, suggest the existence of at least four stocks of grey mackerel in northern Australia: NW NT, the GoC, northern east coast and central east coast. Grey mackerel parasite fauna on the east coast suggests a separation somewhere between Townsville and Mackay. The NW NT region also appears to comprise a separate stock while within the GoC there exists a high degree of variability in parasite faunas among the regions sampled. This may be due to 1. natural variation within the GoC and there is one grey mackerel stock, or 2. the existence of multiple localised adult sub-stocks (metapopulations) within the GoC. Growth parameter comparisons were only possible from four major locations and identified the NW NT, the GoC, and the east coast as having different population growth characteristics. Through the use of multiple techniques, and by integrating the results from each, we were able to determine that there exist at least five stocks of grey mackerel across northern Australia, with some likelihood of additional stock structuring within the GoC. The major management units determined from this study therefore were Western Australia, NW Northern Territory (Timor/Arafura), the Gulf of Carpentaria, northern east Queensland coast and central east Queensland coast. The management implications of these results indicate the possible need for management of grey mackerel fisheries in Australia to be carried out on regional scales finer than are currently in place. In some regions the spatial scales of management might continue as is currently (e.g. WA), while in other regions, such as the GoC and the east coast, managers should at least monitor fisheries on a more local scale dictated by fishing effort and assess accordingly. Stock assessments should also consider the stock divisions identified, particularly on the east coast and for the GoC, and use life history parameters particular to each stock. We also emphasise that where we have not identified different stocks does not preclude the possibility of the occurrence of further stock division. Further, this study did not, nor did it set out to, assess the status of each of the stocks identified. This we identify as a high priority action for research and development of grey mackerel fisheries, as well as a management strategy evaluation that incorporates the conclusions of this work. Until such time that these priorities are addressed, management of grey mackerel fisheries should be cognisant of these uncertainties, particularly for the GoC and the Queensland east coast.

An evaluation of electrofishing as a control measure for an invasive tilapia (Oreochromis mossambicus) population in northern Australia.

Combating the spread of invasive fish is problematic, with eradication rarely possible and control options varying enormously in their effectiveness. In two small impoundments in north-eastern Australia, an electrofishing removal program was conducted to control an invasive tilapia population. We hypothesised that electrofishing would reduce the population density of Oreochromis mossambicus (Mozambique tilapia), to limit the risk of downstream spread into areas of high conservation value. We sampled by electrofishing monthly for 33 months. Over this period, there was an 87% decline in catch per unit effort (CPUE) of mature fish, coupled with a corresponding increase of 366% in the number of juveniles, suggesting a density-dependent response in the stock-recruitment relationship for the population. Temperature was inversely related to CPUE (r=0.43, lag=10 days), implying greater electrofishing efficiency in cooler months. The reduction in breeding stock is likely to reduce the risk of spread and render the population vulnerable to other control measures such as netting and/or biological control. Importantly, the current study suggests routine electrofishing may be a useful control tool for invasive fish in small impoundments when the use of more destructive techniques, such as piscicides, is untenable.

Weaning management of beef calves - practical guidelines for northern Australian

The ‘Weaning management of beef calves – practical guidelines for northern Australian beef producers‘ book or simply ‘the weaner book’ is a compilation of all the research, demonstration and practical knowledge available on weaning and weaner management in northern Australia. Most of this information has been available for some years, but it has not been collated in a single document that is practical and easy to understand. It has been difficult for property owners, managers and their staff to access. The end result of this project is an easy to read guide that has all the available information in one publication. Compiling this information has also highlighted areas where information is limited or non existent or where available information is not being implemented across the whole industry. This has been evaluated and included in recommendations for further research and or demonstration work.

Defining critical soil nutrient concentrations in soils supporting grains and cotton in Northern NSW and Queensland

This project focussed on the phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) status of northern cropping soils. Stores of P and K have been depleted by crop removal and limited fertiliser application, with depletion most significant in the subsoil. Soil testing strategies are confounded by slowly available mineral reserves with uncertain availability. The utility of new soil tests was assessed to measure these reserves, their availability to plants quantified and a regional sampling strategy undertaken to identify areas of greatest P and K deficit. Fertiliser application strategies for P and K have been tested and the interactions between these and other nutrients have been determined in a large field program.

GRDC Evaluating the role of brassica crops in South West Queensland and Northern New South Wales grain cropping system

Project to evaluate the role of brassica crops in the western farming system area.

Reproductive strategies of two invasive tilapia species Oreochromis mossambicus and Tilapia mariae in northern Australia

The reproductive biology of two invasive tilapia species, Oreochromis mossambicus and Tilapia mariae, resident in freshwater habitats in north-eastern Australia was investigated. Oreochromis mossambicus exhibited plasticity in some of its life-history characteristics that enhanced its ability to occupy a range of habitats. These included a shallow, weed-choked, freshwater coastal drain that was subject to temperature and dissolved oxygen extremes and water-level fluctuations to cooler, relatively high-altitude impoundments. Adaptations to harsher conditions included a decreased total length (LT) and age ( A) at 50% maturity (m50), short somatic growth intervals, early maturation and higher relative fecundities. Potential fecundity in both species was relatively low, but parental care ensured high survival rates of both eggs and larvae. No significant difference in the relative fecundity of T. mariae populations in a large impoundment and a coastal river was found, but there were significant differences in relative fecundities between several of the O. mossambicus populations sampled. Total length ( LT) and age at 50% maturity of O. mossambicus populations varied considerably depending on habitat. The LTm50 and Am50 values for male and female O. mossambicus in a large impoundment were considerably greater than for those resident in a small coastal drain. Monthly gonad developmental stages and gonado-somatic indices suggested that in coastal areas, spawning of O. mossambicus and T. mariae occurred throughout most of the year while in cooler, high-altitude impoundments, spawning peaked in the warmer, summer months. The contribution these reproductive characteristics make to the success of both species as colonizers is discussed in the context of future control and management options for tilapia incursions in Australia.

Improved management of key northern region weeds: diverse problems, diverse solutions

The cropping region of northern Australia has a diverse range of cropping systems and weed flora. A fallow phase is commonly required between crops to enable the accumulation of stored soil water in these farming systems dominated by reduced tillage. During the fallow phase, weed control is important and is heavily reliant on herbicides. The most commonly used herbicide has been glyphosate. As a result of over-reliance on glyphosate, there are now seven confirmed glyphosate-resistant weeds and several glyphosate-tolerant species common in the region. As a result, the control of summer fallow weeds is become more complex. This paper outlines project work investigating improved weed control for summer fallows in the northern cropping region. Areas of research include weed ecology, chemical and non-chemical tactics, glyphosate resistance and resistance surveys. The project also has an economic and extension component. As a result of our research we have a better understanding of the ecology of major northern weeds and spread of glyphosate resistance in the region. We have identified and defined alternative herbicide and non-chemical approaches for the effective control of summer fallow weeds and have extended our research effectively to industry.

Indigofera linnaei-a problem legume across northern pastures

Indigofera linnaei (or Birdsville Indigo) is a native legume with widespread abundance in pastures across northern Australian, and occurs in all northern regions of Australia from the tropical Kimberleys and arid central Australia to subhumid coastal Queensland (Figure 1). I. linnaei in central Australia has been linked to canine fatalities due to the toxin indospicine. Indospicine, an analog of arginine, is an unusual non-protein amino acid found only in a number of Indigofera species including I. linnaei. Dogs are particularly sensitive to the heptatoxicity of indospicine, and while they do not themselves consume the plant, dogs have been poisoned indirectly through the consumption of indospicine-contaminated meat from horses and camels grazing in regions where I. linnaei is common (Hegarty and Pound 1988, FitzGerald et al 2011). I. linnaei is observed to occur in various forms from strongly prostrate in south-east Queensland to an erect shrub-like form growing to more than 50cm in height in some northern regions. It mostly occurs as a minor proportion of native pasture but denser stands develop under certain circumstances. The indospicine content of I. linnaei has not previously been reported outside of central Australia, and in this study we investigate the indospicine content of plant samples collected across various regions, including both prostrate and upright forms. All samples were collected in March-July, dried, milled and analysed by UPLC-MS/MS in an adaption of our method (Tan et al 2014). Indospicine was determined in all I. linnaei plant samples regardless of region or growth form (Table 1). Measured levels were in the range 159.5 to 658.8 mg/kg DM and indicate that this plant may pose a similar problem in all areas dependent on local seasonal abundance.

Strategic tillage in no-till farming systems in Australia’s northern grains-growing regions: II. Implications for agronomy, soil and environment

In semi-arid sub-tropical areas, a number of studies concerning no-till (NT) farming systems have demonstrated advantages in economic, environmental and soil quality aspects over conventional tillage (CT). However, adoption of continuous NT has contributed to the build-up of herbicide resistant weed populations, increased incidence of soil- and stubble-borne diseases, and stratification of nutrients and organic carbon near the soil surface. Some farmers often resort to an occasional strategic tillage (ST) to manage these problems of NT systems. However, farmers who practice strict NT systems are concerned that even one-time tillage may undo positive soil condition benefits of NT farming systems. We reviewed the pros and cons of the use of occasional ST in NT farming systems. Impacts of occasional ST on agronomy, soil and environment are site-specific and depend on many interacting soil, climatic and management conditions. Most studies conducted in North America and Europe suggest that introducing occasional ST in continuous NT farming systems could improve productivity and profitability in the short term; however in the long-term, the impact is negligible or may be negative. The short term impacts immediately following occasional ST on soil and environment include reduced protective cover, soil loss by erosion, increased runoff, loss of C and water, and reduced microbial activity with little or no detrimental impact in the long-term. A potential negative effect immediately following ST would be reduced plant available water which may result in unreliability of crop sowing in variable seasons. The occurrence of rainfall between the ST and sowing or immediately after the sowing is necessary to replenish soil water lost from the seed zone. Timing of ST is likely to be critical and must be balanced with optimising soil water prior to seeding. The impact of occasional ST varies with the tillage implement used; for example, inversion tillage using mouldboard tillage results in greater impacts as compared to chisel or disc. Opportunities for future research on occasional ST with the most commonly used implements such as tine and/or disc in Australia’s northern grains-growing region are presented in the context of agronomy, soil and the environment.