Pheromone-trapping of Carpophilus spp. (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae) in stone fruit orchards near Gosford, New South Wales: Fauna, seasonality and effect of insecticides

Traps baited with synthetic aggregation pheromones of Carpophilus hemipterus (L.), Carpophilus mutilatus Erichson and Carpophilus davidsoni Dobson and fermenting bread dough were used to identify the fauna and monitor the seasonal abundance of Carpophilus spp. in insecticide treated peach and nectarine orchards in the Gosford area of coastal New South Wales. In four orchards 67 178 beetles were trapped during 1994–1995, with C. davidsoni (82%) and Carpophilus gaveni (Dobson) (12.2%) dominating catches. Five species (C. hemipterus, C. mutilatus, Carpophilus marginellus Motschulsky, Carpophilus humeralis (F.) and an unidentified species) each accounted for 0.2–3.2% of trapped beetles. Carpophilus davidsoni was most abundant during late September–early October but numbers declined rapidly during October, usually before insecticides were applied. Spring populations of Carpophilus spp. were very large in 1994–1995 (1843–2588 per trap per week). However, despite a preharvest population decline of approximately 95% and 2–11 applications of insecticide, 14–545 beetles per trap per week (above the arbitrary fruit damage threshold of 10 beetles per trap per week) were recorded during the harvest period and fruit damage occurred at three of the four orchards. Lower preharvest populations in 1995–1996 (< 600 per trap per week) and up to six applications of insecticide resulted in < 10 beetles per trap per week during most of the harvest period and minimal or no fruit damage. The implications of these results for the integrated management of Carpophilus spp. in coastal and inland areas of southeastern Australia are discussed.

Stock assessment of the Queensland-New South Wales tailor fishery (Pomatomus saltatrix)

Data on catch sizes, catch rates, length-frequency and age composition from the Australian east coast tailor fishery are analysed by three different population dynamic models: a surplus production model, an age-structured model, and a model in which the population is structured by both age and length. The population is found to be very heavily exploited, with its ability to reproduce dependent on the fishery’s incomplete selectivity of one-year-old fish. Estimates of recent harvest rates (proportion of fish available to the fishery that are actually caught in a single year) are over 80%. It is estimated that only 30–50% of one-year-old fish are available to the fishery. Results from the age-length-structured model indicate that both exploitable biomass (total mass of fish selected by the fishery) and egg production have fallen to about half the levels that prevailed in the 1970s, and about 40% of virgin levels. Two-year-old fish appear to have become smaller over the history of the fishery. This is assumed to be due to increased fishing pressure combined with non-selectivity of small one-year-old fish, whereby the one-year-old fish that survive fishing are small and grow into small two-year-old fish the following year. An alternative hypothesis is that the stock has undergone a genetic change towards smaller fish; the true explanation is unknown. The instantaneous natural mortality rate of tailor is hypothesised to be higher than previously thought, with values between 0.8 and 1.3 yr–1 consistent with the models. These values apply only to tailor up to about three years of age, and it is possible that a lower value applies to fish older than three. The analysis finds no evidence that fishing pressure has yet affected recruitment. If a recruitment downturn were to occur, however, under current management and fishing pressure there is a strong chance that the fishery would need a complete closure for several years to recover, and even then recovery would be uncertain. Therefore it is highly desirable to better protect the spawning stock. The major recommendations are • An increase in the minimum size limit from 30cm to 40cm in order to allow most one-year-old fish to spawn, and • An experiment on discard mortality to gauge the proportion of fish between 30cm and 40cm that are likely to survive being caught and released by recreational line fishers (the dominant component of the fishery, currently harvesting roughly 1000t p.a. versus about 200t p.a. from the commercial fishery).

Tree growth relationships and silvicultural tools to assist stand management in private native spotted gum dominant forests in Queensland and northern New South Wales.

Spotted gum dominant forests occur from Cooktown in northern Queensland (Qld) to Orbost in Victoria (Boland et al. 2006) and these forests are commercially very important with spotted gum the most commonly harvested hardwood timber in Qld and one of the most important in New South Wales (NSW). Spotted gum has a wide range of end uses from solid wood products through to power transmission poles and generally has excellent sawing and timber qualities (Hopewell 2004). The private native forest resource in southern Qld and northern NSW is a critical component of the hardwood timber industry (Anon 2005, Timber Qld 2006) and currently half or more of the native forest timber resource harvested in northern NSW and Qld is sourced from private land. However, in many cases productivity on private lands is well below what could be achieved with appropriate silvicultural management. This project provides silvicultural management tools to assist extension staff, land owners and managers in the south east Qld and north eastern NSW regions. The intent was that this would lead to improvement of the productivity of the private estate through implementation of appropriate management. The other intention of this project was to implement a number of silvicultural experiments and demonstration sites to provide data on growth rates of managed and unmanaged forests so that landholders can make informed decisions on the future management of their forests. To assist forest managers and improve the ability to predict forest productivity in the private resource, the project has developed: • A set of spotted gum specific silvicultural guidelines for timber production on private land that cover both silvicultural treatment and harvesting. The guidelines were developed for extension officers and property owners. • A simple decision support tool, referred to as the spotted gum productivity assessment tool (SPAT), that allows an estimation of: 1. Tree growth productivity on specific sites. Estimation is based on the analysis of site and growth data collected from a large number of yield and experimental plots on Crown land across a wide range of spotted gum forest types. Growth algorithms were developed using tree growth and site data and the algorithms were used to formulate basic economic predictors. 2. Pasture development under a range of tree stockings and the expected livestock carrying capacity at nominated tree stockings for a particular area. 3. Above-ground tree biomass and carbon stored in trees. •A series of experiments in spotted gum forests on private lands across the study area to quantify growth and to provide measures of the effect of silvicultural thinning and different agro-forestry regimes. The adoption and use of these tools by farm forestry extension officers and private land holders in both field operations and in training exercises will, over time, improve the commercial management of spotted gum forests for both timber and grazing. Future measurement of the experimental sites at ages five, 10 and 15 years will provide longer term data on the effects of various stocking rates and thinning regimes and facilitate modification and improvement of these silvicultural prescriptions.

GRDC Evaluating the role of brassica crops in South West Queensland and Northern New South Wales grain cropping system

Project to evaluate the role of brassica crops in the western farming system area.

Thekopsora minima causes blueberry rust in south-eastern Queensland and northern New South Wales

The cause of blueberry rust in eastern Australia was determined by molecular and morphological analysis as Thekopsora minima.

Preventing weed spread: a survey of lifestyle and commercial landholders about Nassella trichotoma in the Northern Tablelands of New South Wales, Australia

Nassella trichotoma (Nees) Hack. ex Arechav. (common name, serrated tussock) occupies large areas of south-eastern Australia and has considerable scope for expansion in the Northern Tablelands of New South Wales. This highly invasive grass reduces pasture productivity and has the potential to severely affect the region’s economy by decreasing the livestock carrying capacity of grazing land. Other potential consequences of this invasion include increased fuel loads and displacement of native plants, thereby threatening biodiversity. Rural property owners in the Northern Tablelands were sent a mail questionnaire that examined use of measures to prevent new outbreaks of the weed. The questionnaire was sent to professional farmers as well as lifestyle farmers (owners of rural residential blocks and hobby farms) and 271 responses were obtained (a response rate of 18%). Key findings were respondents’ limited capacity to detect N. trichotoma, and low adoption of precautions to control seed spread by livestock, vehicles and machinery. This was particularly the case among lifestyle farmers. There have been considerable recent changes to biosecurity governance arrangements in New South Wales, and now is an ideal time for regulators and information providers to consider how to foster regional communities’ engagement in biosecurity, including the adoption of measures that have the capacity to curtail the spread of N. trichotoma.

Scat contents of the spotted-tailed quoll Dasyurus maculatus in the New England gorges, north-eastern New South Wales

In 1313 scats of the spotted-tailed quoll Dasyurus maculatus, collected over 5 years from the gorge country of north-eastern New South Wales, the most frequent and abundant items were derived from mammals and a restricted set of insect orders. These quolls also ate river-associated items: waterbirds, eels, crayfish, aquatic molluscs and even frogs. Macropods contributed most of the mammal items, with possums, gliders and rodents also being common. Some food, particularly from macropods and lagomorphs, had been scavenged (as shown by fly larvae). The most frequent invertebrates were three orders of generally large insects Coleoptera, Hemiptera and Orthoptera, which were most frequent in summer and almost absent in winter scats. Monthly mean numbers of rodent and small dasyurid items per scat were inversely related to these large insects in scats. The numbers of reptile items were inversely related to the numbers of mammal (especially arboreal and small terrestrial mammal) items per scat, thus types of items interacted in their occurrences in monthly scat samples. Frequencies of most vertebrate items showed no seasonal, but much year-to-year, variation. This quoll population ate four main types of items, each requiring different skills to obtain: they hunted arboreal marsupials (possibly up trees), terrestrial small mammals and reptiles (on the ground), and seasonally available large insects (on trees or the ground), and scavenged carcases, mostly of large mammals but also birds and fishes (wherever they could find them).

Gene flow from Corymbia hybrids in northern New South Wales

Some of the most productive taxa for forestry are interspecific F1 hybrids grown as exotics in the tropics and subtropics. Attributes of resilience, adaptability and vigour which engender the hybrids for wood production, may also exacerbate the risk they present from gene flow to native species gene pools or to local ecologies as weeds. To determine the biological and genetic factors that influence the extent of hybridisation, we examine the distribution and genealogy of wildlings surrounding plantings of locally-exotic Corymbia torelliana (Section Cadageria) near native C. henryi (Section Maculatae) in northern New South Wales. Our study showed pre-mating and pre- and post-zygotic barriers were incomplete, with in situ generation and natural establishment of both F1 hybrids (n = 3) and advanced generation hybrids under the disturbed conditions bordering native forest. As hybrids were located on alluvial flats exposed to frost, they also likely have an extended ecological range relative to native C. henryi. Despite the likely generation of large viable seed crops on F1 trees at the site over many years, establishment success and survival of advanced generation hybrids may be low, as only 5 immature and no mature advanced generation hybrids were identified. Propagation and genetic analysis of a seed crop from one F1 wildling showed early survival and vigour of seedlings in cultivation was high, and that at least for some F1 in some seasons, backcrossing to the recurrent native C. henryi parent is favoured (60%), whereas selfing (10%) and crossing with other F1 (30%) was less frequent. Transport of seed by stingless bees probably accounted for long distance dispersal from C. torelliana, but this mechanism does not appear to supplement gravity-dispersal of seed from the F1. Coupled with other evidence from studies of bee behaviour, controlled pollination in Corymbia sp., and long-term fitness in second generation eucalypt hybrids, we anticipate gene flow via pollen rather than seed will be the greater challenge for managing the risk of introgression of C. torelliana ancestry into native species from the planted F1 hybrid. If large sources of F1 pollen become available to compete with native pollen, gene flow will probably be frequent and hybrids may establish in disturbed conditions and in habitats beyond the ecological range of their native parent. Further study is needed to determine the degree to which outbreeding depression and poor survival inhibits on-going gene flow.

Climate change effects on pasture systems in south-eastern Australia.

Climate change projections for Australia predict increasing temperatures, changes to rainfall patterns, and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations. The aims of this study were to predict plant production responses to elevated CO2 concentrations using the SGS Pasture Model and DairyMod, and then to quantify the effects of climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2070 on predicted pasture growth, species composition, and soil moisture conditions of 5 existing pasture systems in climates ranging from cool temperate to subtropical, relative to a historical baseline. Three future climate scenarios were created for each site by adjusting historical climate data according to temperature and rainfall change projections for 2030, 2070 mid-and 2070 high-emission scenarios, using output from the CSIRO Mark 3 global climate model. In the absence of other climate changes, mean annual pasture production at an elevated CO2 concentration of 550 ppm was predicted to be 24-29% higher than at 380 ppm CO2 in temperate (C-3) species-dominant pastures in southern Australia, with lower mean responses in a mixed C-3/C-4 pasture at Barraba in northern New South Wales (17%) and in a C-4 pasture at Mutdapilly in south-eastern Queensland (9%). In the future climate scenarios at the Barraba and Mutdapilly sites in subtropical and subhumid climates, respectively, where climate projections indicated warming of up to 4.4 degrees C, with little change in annual rainfall, modelling predicted increased pasture production and a shift towards C-4 species dominance. In Mediterranean, temperate, and cool temperate climates, climate change projections indicated warming of up to 3.3 degrees C, with annual rainfall reduced by up to 28%. Under future climate scenarios at Wagga Wagga, NSW, and Ellinbank, Victoria, our study predicted increased winter and early spring pasture growth rates, but this was counteracted by a predicted shorter spring growing season, with annual pasture production higher than the baseline under the 2030 climate scenario, but reduced by up to 19% under the 2070 high scenario. In a cool temperate environment at Elliott, Tasmania, annual production was higher than the baseline in all 3 future climate scenarios, but highest in the 2070 mid scenario. At the Wagga Wagga, Ellinbank, and Elliott sites the effect of rainfall declines on pasture production was moderated by a predicted reduction in drainage below the root zone and, at Ellinbank, the use of deeper rooted plant systems was shown to be an effective adaptation to mitigate some of the effect of lower rainfall.

Management Guidelines for New Warm-Season Grasses in Australia

After more than 30 years in which ‘Tifgreen’ and ‘Tifdwarf’ were the only greens-quality varieties available, the choice for golf courses and bowls clubs in northern Australia has been expanded to include six new Cynodon hybrids [Cynodon dactylon (L.) Pers x Cynodon transvaalensis Burtt-Davy]. Five of these – ‘Champion Dwarf’ (Texas), ‘MS-Supreme’ (Mississippi), FloraDwarf™ (Florida), ‘TifEagle’ (Georgia), MiniVerde™ (Arizona) - are from US breeding programs, while the sixth, ‘TL2’ (marketed as Novotek™) was selected in north Queensland. The finer, denser and lower growing habit of the “ultradwarf” cultivars allows very low mowing heights (e.g. 2.5 mm) to be imposed, resulting in denser and smoother putting and bowls surfaces. In addition to the Cynodon hybrids, four new greens quality seashore paspalum (Paspalum vaginatum O. Swartz) cultivars including ‘Sea Isle 2000’, Sea Isle Supreme™, Velvetene™ and Sea Dwarf™ (where tolerance of salty water is required) expands the range of choices for greens in difficult environments. The project was developed to determine (a) the appropriate choice of cultivar for different environments and budgets, and (b) best management practices for the new cultivars which differ from the Cynodon hybrid industry standards ‘Tifgreen’ and ‘Tifdwarf’. Management practices, particularly fertilising, mowing heights and frequency, and thatch control were investigated to determine optimum management inputs and provide high quality playing surfaces with the new grasses. To enable effective trialling of these new and old cultivars it was essential to have a number of regional sites participating in the study. Drought and financial hardship of many clubs presented an initial setback with numerous clubs wanting to be involved in the study but were unable to commit due to their financial position at the time. The study was fortunate to have seven regional sites from Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia volunteer to be involved in the study which would add to the results being collected at the centralised test facility being constructed at DEEDI’s Redlands Research Station. The major research findings acquired from the eight trial sites included: • All of the new second generation “ultradwarf” couchgrasses tend to produce a large amount of thatch with MiniVerde™ being the greatest thatch producer, particularly compared to ‘Tifdwarf’ and ‘Tifgreen’. The maintenance of the new Cynodon hybrids will require a program of regular dethatching/grooming as well as regular light dustings of sand. Thatch prevention should begin 3 to 4 weeks after planting a new “ultradwarf” couchgrass green, with an emphasis on prevention rather than control. • The “ultradwarfs” produced faster green speeds than the current industry standards ‘Tifgreen’ and ‘Tifdwarf’. However, all Cynodon hybrids were considerably faster than the seashore paspalums (e.g. comparable to the speed diference of Bentgrass and couchgrass) under trial conditions. Green speed was fastest being cut at 3.5 mm and rolled (compared to 3.5 mm cut, no roll and 2.7 mm cut, no roll). • All trial sites reported the occurrence of disease in the Cynodon hybrids with the main incidence of disease occurring during the dormancy period (autumn and winter). The main disease issue reported was “patch diseases” which includes both Gaumannomyces and Rhizoctonia species. There was differences in the severity of the disease between cultivars, however, the severity of the disease was not consistent between cultivars and is largely attributed to an environment (location) effect. In terms of managing the occurrence of disease, the incidence of disease is less severe where there is a higher fertility rate (about 3 kgN/100m2/year) or a preventitatve fungicide program is adopted. • Cynodon hybrid and seashore paspalum cultivars maintained an acceptable to ideal surface being cut between 2.7 mm and 5.0 mm. “Ultradwarf” cultivars can tolerate mowing heights as low as 2.5 mm for short periods but places the plant under high levels of stress. Greens being maintained at a continually lower cutting height (e.g. 2.7 mm) of both species is achievable, but would need to be cut daily for best results. Seashore paspalums performed best when cut at a height of between 2.7 mm and 3.0 mm. If a lower cutting height is adopted, regular and repeated mowings are required to reduce scalping and produce a smooth surface. • At this point in time the optimum rate of nitrogen (N) for the Cynodon hybrids is 3 kg/100m2/year and while the seashore paspalums is 2 to 3 kg/100m2/year. • Dormancy occurred for all Cynodon and seashore paspalum culitvars from north in Brisbane (QLD) to south in Mornington Peninsula (VIC) and west to Novar Gardens (SA). Cynodon and Paspalum growth in both Victoria and South Australia was less favourable as a result of the cooler climates. • After combining the data collected from all eight sites, the results indicated that there can be variation (e.g. turfgrass quality, colour, disease resistance, performace) depending on the site and climatic conditions. Such evidence highlights the need to undertake genotype by environment (G x E) studies on new and old cultivars prior to conversion or establishment. • For a club looking to select either a Cynodon hybrid or seashore paspalum cultivar for use at their club they need to: - Review the research data. - Look at trial plots. - Inspect greens in play that have the new grasses. - Select 2 to 3 cultivars that are considered to be the better types. - Establish them in large (large enough to putt on) plots/nursery/practice putter. Ideally the area should be subjected to wear. - Maintain them exactly as they would be on the golf course/lawn bowls green. This is a critical aspect. Regular mowing, fertilising etc. is essential. - Assess them over at least 2 to 3 years. - Make a selection and establish it in a playing green so that it is subjected to typical wear.

Stock structure of exploited shark species in north-eastern Australia

The project has provided management and other stakeholders with information necessary to make informed decisions about the management of four of the key exploited shark species caught in the Queensland inshore net fishery and northern New South Wales line fishery. The project has determined that spatial management of milk sharks within Queensland, and scalloped hammerhead, common black tip and Australian black tip sharks within Queensland and New South Wales is appropriate. The project has determined that both black tip shark species are likely to require co-operative management arrangements between Queensland and New South Wales. For scalloped hammerheads separate stocks between the two jurisdictions were identified from the fisheriesdependent samples, however genetic exchange across borders is likely to be facilitated by movement of adult females and perhaps larger males to a lesser extent. This information will greatly assist compliance with the Commonwealth Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act (1999) for shark fisheries in north-eastern Australia by providing the necessary basis for robust assessment of the status of stocks of the study species, thereby helping to deliver their sustainable harvest. It also helps to achieve objectives of the Australian National Shark Plan. The project provides the appropriate spatial framework for future monitoring and assessment of the study species. This is at a time when shark fisheries are receiving close attention from all sectors and when monitoring programs are being implemented, aimed at better assessment of stock status. This project has provided the crucial information for developing an appropriate monitoring design as well as the necessary basis for making statements about stock status. The project has addressed research priorities identified by the Queensland Fisheries Research Advisory Board, Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority and Queensland Fisheries. Previously management has assumed a single stock for each species on the east coast of Queensland, and management of shark fisheries in New South Wales (NSW) and Queensland has been independent of one another. The project has been able to enhance and develop links between research, management and industry. Strong positive relationships with commercial fishers were crucial in the collection of samples throughout the study area and fisheries managers were part of the project team throughout the study period. During the project the study area was extended to include both Queensland and NSW waters, creating mutualistic and positive links between the States’ research and management agencies. Extension of project results included management representatives from NSW and Queensland, as well as the Northern Territory where similar shark fisheries operate and similar species are targeted. The project was able to provide significant human capital development opportunities providing considerable value to the project outcomes. Use of vertebral microchemistry and life history characteristics as stock determination methods provided material for two PhD students based at James Cook University: Ron Schroeder, vertebral chemistry; and Alastair Harry, life history characteristic. The project has developed novel research methods that have great capacity for future application, including: • Development of a simple and rapid genetic diagnostic tool (RT-HRM-PCR assay) for differentiating among the black tip shark species, for which no simple morphological identifier exists; and • Development of laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICPMS) methods for analysing and interpreting microchemical composition of shark vertebrae. The study has provided further confirmation of the effectiveness of using a holistic approach in stock structure studies and justifies investment into such studies.

Biological suppression of root-lesion nematodes in grain-growing soils

Root-lesion nematodes (RLNs) are found on 75% of grain farms in southern Queensland (QLD) and northern New South Wales (NSW) and are significant pests. This project confirmed that biological suppression of RLNs occurs in soils, examined what organisms are involved and how growers might enhance suppressiveness of soils. Field trials, and glasshouse and laboratory bioassays of soils from fields with contrasting management practices, showed suppressiveness is favoured with less tillage, more stubble and continuous intensive cropping, particularly in the top 15cm of soil. Through extensive surveys key organisms, Pasteuria bacteria, nematode-trapping fungi and predatory nematodes were isolated and identified as being present.

The rph2 Gene Is Responsible for High Level Resistance to Phosphine in Independent Field Strains of Rhyzopertha dominica

The lesser grain borer Rhyzopertha dominica (F.) is one of the most destructive insect pests of stored grain. This pest has been controlled successfully by fumigation with phosphine for the last several decades, though strong resistance to phosphine in many countries has raised concern about the long term usefulness of this control method. Previous genetic analysis of strongly resistant (SR) R. dominica from three widely geographically dispersed regions of Australia, Queensland (SRQLD), New South Wales (SRNSW) and South Australia (SRSA), revealed a resistance allele in the rph1 gene in all three strains. The present study confirms that the rph1 gene contributes to resistance in a fourth strongly resistant strain, SR2(QLD), also from Queensland. The previously described rph2 gene, which interacts synergistically with rph1 gene, confers strong resistance on SRQLD and SRNSW. We now provide strong circumstantial evidence that weak alleles of rph2, together with rph1, contribute to the strong resistance phenotypes of SRSA and SR2(QLD). To test the notion that rph1 and rph2 are solely responsible for the strong resistance phenotype of all resistant R. dominica, we created a strain derived by hybridising the four strongly resistant lines. Following repeated selection for survival at extreme rates of phosphine exposure, we found only slightly enhanced resistance. This suggests that a single sequence of genetic changes was responsible for the development of resistance in these insects.

Achievements in forest tree improvement in Australia and New Zealand 6: Genetic improvement and conservation of Araucaria cunninghamii in Queensland

Araucaria cunninghamii (hoop pine) typically occurs as an emergent tree over subtropical and tropical rainforests, in a discontinuous distribution that extends from West Irian Jaya at about 0°30'S, through the highlands of Indonesian New Guinea and Papua New Guinea, along the east coast of Australia from 11°39'S in Queensland to 30°35'S in northern New South Wales. Plantations established in Queensland since the 1920s now total about 44000 ha, and constitute the primary source for the continuing supply of hoop pine quality timber and pulpwood, with a sustainable harvest exceeding 440 000 m3 y-1. Establishment of these managed plantations allowed logging of all native forests of Araucaria species (hoop pine and bunya pine, A. bidwillii) on state-owned lands to cease in the late 1980s, and the preservation of large areas of araucarian forest types within a system of state-owned and managed reserves. The successful plantation program with this species has been strongly supported by genetic improvement activities since the late 1940s - through knowledge of provenance variation and reproductive biology, the provision of reliable sources of improved seed, and the capture of substantial genetic gains in traits of economic importance (for example growth, stem straightness, internode length and spiral grain). As such, hoop pine is one of the few tropical tree species that, for more than half a century, has been the subject of continuous genetic improvement. The history of commercialisation and genetic improvement of hoop pine provides an excellent example of the dual economic and conservation benefits that may be obtained in tropical tree species through the integration of gene conservation and genetic improvement with commercial plantation development. This paper outlines the natural distribution and reproductive biology of hoop pine, describes the major achievements of the genetic improvement program in Queensland over the past 50+ y, summarises current understanding of the genetic variation and control of key selection traits, and outlines the means by which genetic diversity in the species is being conserved.

New efforts at biological control of Mikania micrantha H.B.K. (Asteraceae) in Papua New Guinea and Fiji.

New efforts at biological control of Miconia calvescens (Melastomataceae) is a serious invader in the tropical Pacific, including the Hawaiian and Tahitian Islands, and currently poses a major threat to native biodiversity in the Wet Tropics of Australia. The species is fleshy-fruited, small-seeded and shade tolerant, and thus has the potential to be dispersed widely and recruit in relatively intact rainforest habitats, displacing native species. Understanding and predicting the rate of spread is critical for the design and implementation of effective management actions. We used an individual-based model incorporating a dispersal function derived from dispersal curves for similar berry-fruited native species, and life-history parameters of fecundity and mortality to predict the spatial structure of a Miconia population after a 30 year time period. We compared the modelled population spatial structure to that of an actual infestation in the rainforests of north Queensland. Our goal was to assess how well the model predicts actual dispersion and to identify potential barriers and conduits to seed movement and seedling establishment. The model overpredicts overall population size and the spatial extent of the actual infestation, predicting individuals to occur at a maximum 1,750 m from the source compared with the maximum distance of any detected individual in the actual infestation of 1,191 m. We identify several characteristic features of managed invasive populations that make comparisons between modelled outcomes and actual infestations difficult. Our results suggest that the model’s ability to predict both spatial structure and spread of the population will be improved by incorporating a spatially explicit element, with dispersal and recruitment probabilities that reflect the relative suitability of different parts of the landscape for these processes. Mikania micrantha H.B.K. (Asteraceae) in Papua New Guinea and Fiji.