Optimal eradication: when to stop looking for an invasive plant

The notion of being sure that you have completely eradicated an invasive species is fanciful because of imperfect detection and persistent seed banks. Eradication is commonly declared either on an ad hoc basis, on notions of seed bank longevity, or on setting arbitrary thresholds of 1% or 5% confidence that the species is not present. Rather than declaring eradication at some arbitrary level of confidence, we take an economic approach in which we stop looking when the expected costs outweigh the expected benefits. We develop theory that determines the number of years of absent surveys required to minimize the net expected cost. Given detection of a species is imperfect, the optimal stopping time is a trade-off between the cost of continued surveying and the cost of escape and damage if eradication is declared too soon. A simple rule of thumb compares well to the exact optimal solution using stochastic dynamic programming. Application of the approach to the eradication programme of Helenium amarum reveals that the actual stopping time was a precautionary one given the ranges for each parameter.

Evaluation of restoration of vegetation infested with cat's claw creeper vine (Dolichandra unguis-cati): soil seed bank response to herbicide and physical removal

Cat’s claw creeper vine, Dolichandra unguis-cati (L.) L.G.Lohmann (formerly known as Macfadyena unguis-cati (L.) A.H.Gentry), a Weed of National Significance (WoNS), is a structural woody parasite that is highly invasive along sensitive riparian corridors and native forests of coastal and inland eastern Australia. As part of evaluation of the impact of herbicide and mechanical/physical control techniques on the long-term reduction of biomass of the weed and expected return of native flora, we have set-up permanent vegetation plots in: (a) infested and now chemically/physically treated, (b) infested but untreated and (c) un-infested patches. The treatments were set up in both riparian and non-riparian habitats to document changes that occur in seed bank flora over a two-year post-treatment period. Response to treatment varied spatially and temporally. However, following chemical and physical removal treatments, treated patches exhibited lower seed bank abundance and diversity than infested and patches lacking the weed, but differences were not statistically significant. Thus it will be safe to say that spraying herbicides using the recommended rate does not undermine restoration efforts.

Mapping of adult plant resistance to net form of net blotch in three Australian barley populations

Net form of net blotch (NFNB), caused by Pyrenophora teres Drechs. f. teres Smedeg., is a serious disease problem for the barley industry in Australia and other parts of the world. Three doubled haploid barley populations, Alexis/Sloop, WI2875-1/Alexis, and Arapiles/Franklin, were used to identify genes conferring adult plant resistance to NFNB in field trials. Quantitative trait loci (QTLs) identified were specific for adult plant resistance because seedlings of the parental lines were susceptible to the NFNB isolates used in this study. QTLs were identified on chromosomes 2H, 3H, 4H, and 7H in both the Alexis/Sloop and WI2875-1/Alexis populations and on chromosomes 1H, 2H, and 7H in the Arapiles/Franklin population. Using QTLNetwork, epistatic interactions were identified between loci on chromosomes 3H and 6H in the Alexis/Sloop population, between 2H and 4H in the WI2875-1/Alexis population, and between 5H and 7H in the Arapiles/Franklin population. Comparisons with earlier studies of NFNB resistance indicate the pathotype-dependent nature of many resistance QTLs and the importance of establishing an international system of pathotype nomenclature and differential testing.

Quantitative trait loci and epistatic interactions in barley conferring resistance to net type net blotch (Pyrenophora teres f. teres) isolates.

Net type net blotch (NTNB) is an important barley disease in Australia and elsewhere, with significant yield reduction. This trait is important in selection along with other traits of quality and agronomic value. Two-hundred doubled-haploid lines were generated through anther culture from a cross between 'Pompadour' and 'Stirling'. Quantitative trait loci (QTL) were identified against five isolates of Pyrenophora teres f. teres, which represent virulences across Australia. QTL were mapped on chromosomes 3H and 6H using simple sequence repeat (SSR) markers. The resistance locus on 6H was detected with all isolates while the 3H locus was detected with two isolates. The 6H QTL from 'Pompadour' contributed resistance to isolates 97NB1, 95NB100 and NB81, whereas 6H QTL from 'Stirling' contributed resistance to isolates NB50 and NB52B. The 3H QTL from 'Pompadour' contributed resistance to NB50 and NB52B. Significant epistatic interactions were detected between QTL on 3H and 6H. These resistance QTL are a useful resource and identifying closely linked SSR markers with allelic combinations will facilitate in marker-assisted selection to develop NTNB resistant breeding lines.

Net radiation dynamics: performance of 20 daily net radiation models as related to model structure and intricacy in two climates.

We compared daily net radiation (Rn) estimates from 19 methods with the ASCE-EWRI Rn estimates in two climates: Clay Center, Nebraska (sub-humid) and Davis, California (semi-arid) for the calendar year. The performances of all 20 methods, including the ASCE-EWRI Rn method, were then evaluated against Rn data measured over a non-stressed maize canopy during two growing seasons in 2005 and 2006 at Clay Center. Methods differ in terms of inputs, structure, and equation intricacy. Most methods differ in estimating the cloudiness factor, emissivity (e), and calculating net longwave radiation (Rnl). All methods use albedo (a) of 0.23 for a reference grass/alfalfa surface. When comparing the performance of all 20 Rn methods with measured Rn, we hypothesized that the a values for grass/alfalfa and non-stressed maize canopy were similar enough to only cause minor differences in Rn and grass- and alfalfa-reference evapotranspiration (ETo and ETr) estimates. The measured seasonal average a for the maize canopy was 0.19 in both years. Using a = 0.19 instead of a = 0.23 resulted in 6% overestimation of Rn. Using a = 0.19 instead of a = 0.23 for ETo and ETr estimations, the 6% difference in Rn translated to only 4% and 3% differences in ETo and ETr, respectively, supporting the validity of our hypothesis. Most methods had good correlations with the ASCE-EWRI Rn (r2 > 0.95). The root mean square difference (RMSD) was less than 2 MJ m-2 d-1 between 12 methods and the ASCE-EWRI Rn at Clay Center and between 14 methods and the ASCE-EWRI Rn at Davis. The performance of some methods showed variations between the two climates. In general, r2 values were higher for the semi-arid climate than for the sub-humid climate. Methods that use dynamic e as a function of mean air temperature performed better in both climates than those that calculate e using actual vapor pressure. The ASCE-EWRI-estimated Rn values had one of the best agreements with the measured Rn (r2 = 0.93, RMSD = 1.44 MJ m-2 d-1), and estimates were within 7% of the measured Rn. The Rn estimates from six methods, including the ASCE-EWRI, were not significantly different from measured Rn. Most methods underestimated measured Rn by 6% to 23%. Some of the differences between measured and estimated Rn were attributed to the poor estimation of Rnl. We conducted sensitivity analyses to evaluate the effect of Rnl on Rn, ETo, and ETr. The Rnl effect on Rn was linear and strong, but its effect on ETo and ETr was subsidiary. Results suggest that the Rn data measured over green vegetation (e.g., irrigated maize canopy) can be an alternative Rn data source for ET estimations when measured Rn data over the reference surface are not available. In the absence of measured Rn, another alternative would be using one of the Rn models that we analyzed when all the input variables are not available to solve the ASCE-EWRI Rn equation. Our results can be used to provide practical information on which method to select based on data availability for reliable estimates of daily Rn in climates similar to Clay Center and Davis.

Wet season resting - economic insights from scenario modelling

Pasture degradation, particularly that attributable to overgrazing, is a significant problem across the northern Australian rangelands. Although grazing studies have identified the scope for wet season resting strategies to be used to rehabilitate degraded pastures, the economic outcome of these strategies has not been extensively demonstrated. An exploratory study of the prospective economic value of wet season resting is presented using an economic simulation model of a 28000 ha beef enterprise located in the Charters Towers region of north-eastern Australia to explore seven hypothetical scenarios centred on the projected performance of a wet season resting strategy. A series of 20-year simulations for a range of pasture recovery profiles, stocking capacity, animal productivity responses, beef prices and agistment options are compared with a baseline scenario of taking no action. Estimates of the net present value of the 20-year difference in total enterprise gross margins between the various resting options and the 'do nothing' option identify that wet season resting can offer a positive economic return for the range of scenarios examined, although this is contingent on the assumptions that are made concerning the trajectories of change in carrying capacity and animal productivity. Some implications for management and policy making to support the practical implementation of wet season resting strategies are discussed.

Economic case study of ABCD cane management practices in the Burdekin River Irrigation Area (BRIA) region

A case study was undertaken to determine the economic impact of a change in management class as detailed in the A, B, C and D management class framework. This document focuses on the implications of changing from D to C, C to B and B to A class management in the Burdekin River irrigation area (BRIA) and if the change is worthwhile from an economic perspective. This report provides a guide to the economic impact that may be expected when undertaking a particular change in farming practices and will ultimately lead to more informed decisions being made by key industry stakeholders. It is recognised that these management classes have certain limitations and in many cases the grouping of practices may not be reflective of the real situation. The economic case study is based on the A, B, C and D management class framework for water quality improvement developed in 2007/2008 for the Burdekin natural resource management region. The framework for the Burdekin is currently being updated to clarify some issues and incorporate new knowledge since the earlier version of the framework. However, this updated version is not yet complete and so the Paddock to Reef project has used the most current available version of the framework for the modelling and economics. As part of the project specification, sugarcane crop production data for the BRIA was provided by the APSIM model. The information obtained from the APSIM crop modelling programme included sugarcane yields and legume grain yield (legume grain yield only applies to A class management practice). Because of the complexity involved in the economic calculations, a combination of the FEAT, PiRisk and a custom made spreadsheet was used for the economic analysis. Figures calculated in the FEAT program were transferred to the custom made spreadsheet to develop a discounted cash flow analysis. The marginal cash flow differences for each farming system were simulated over a 5-year and 10-year planning horizon to determine the net present value of changing across different management practices. PiRisk was used to test uncertain parameters in the economic analysis and the potential risk associated with a change in value.

Economic case study of ABCD cane management practices in the Burdekin Delta region.

A case study was undertaken to determine the economic impact of a change in management class as detailed in the A, B, C and D management class framework. This document focuses on the implications of changing from D to C, C to B and B to A class management in the Burdekin Delta region and if the change is worthwhile from an economic perspective. This report provides a guide to the economic impact that may be expected when undertaking a particular change in farming practices and will ultimately lead to more informed decisions being made by key industry stakeholders. It is recognised that these management classes have certain limitations and in many cases the grouping of practices may not be reflective of the real situation. The economic case study is based on the A, B, C and D management class framework for water quality improvement developed in 2007/2008 for the Burdekin natural resource management region. The framework for the Burdekin is currently being updated to clarify some issues and incorporate new knowledge since the earlier version of the framework. However, this updated version is not yet complete and so the Paddock to Reef project has used the most current available version of the framework for the modelling and economics. As part of the project specification, sugarcane crop production data for the Burdekin Delta region was provided by the APSIM model. The information obtained from the APSIM crop modelling programme included sugarcane yields and legume grain yield (legume grain yield only applies to A class management practice). Because of the complexity involved in the economic calculations, a combination of the FEAT, PiRisk and a custom made spreadsheet was used for the economic analysis. Figures calculated in the FEAT program were transferred to the custom made spreadsheet to develop a discounted cash flow analysis. The marginal cash flow differences for each farming system were simulated over a 5-year and 10-year planning horizon to determine the Net Present Value of changing across different management practices. PiRisk was used to test uncertain parameters in the economic analysis and the potential risk associated with a change in value.

Economic case study of ABCD cane management practices in the Tully region

A case study was undertaken to determine the economic impact of a change in management class as detailed in the A, B, C and D management class framework. This document focuses on the implications of changing from D to C, C to B and B to A class management in the Tully region and if the change is worthwhile from an economic perspective. This report provides a guide to the economic impact that may be expected when undertaking a particular change in farming practices and will ultimately lead to more informed decisions being made by key industry stakeholders. It is recognised that these management classes have certain limitations and in many cases the grouping of practices may not be reflective of the real situation. The economic case study is based on the A, B, C and D management class framework for water quality improvement developed in 2007/2008 by the wet tropics natural resource management region. The framework for wet tropics is currently being updated to clarify some issues and incorporate new knowledge since the earlier version of the framework. However, this updated version is not yet complete and so the Paddock to Reef project has used the most current available version of the framework for the modelling and economics. As part of the project specification, sugarcane crop production data for the Tully region was provided by the APSIM model. Because of the complexity involved in the economic calculations, a combination of the FEAT, PiRisk and a custom made spreadsheet was used for the economic analysis. Figures calculated in the FEAT program were transferred to the custom made spreadsheet to develop a discounted cash flow analysis. The marginal cash flow differences for each farming system were simulated over a 5-year and 10-year planning horizon to determine the Net Present Value of changing across different management practices. PiRisk was used to test uncertain parameters in the economic analysis and the potential risk associated with a change in value.

Spot Form of Net Blotch Resistance in a Diverse Set of Barley Lines in Australia and Canada.

The responses of 95 barley lines and cultivars to spot form of net blotch (SFNB) caused by Pyrenophora teres f. maculata were analyzed as seedlings and adults in Australia and Canada. Cluster analyses revealed complex reaction responses. Only 2 lines (Esperance Orge 289 and TR3189) were resistant to all isolates at the seedling stage, whereas 15 lines and cultivars (81-82/033, Arimont, BYDV-018, CBSS97M00855T-B2-M1-Y1-M2-Y-1M-0Y, C19776, Keel, Sloop, Torrens, TR326, VB0111, Yarra, VB0229, WI-2477, WI2553, and Wisconsin Pedigree) were resistant toward the two Canadian isolates and mixture of Australian isolates at the adult stages. In Australian field experiments, the effectiveness of SFNB resistance in three barley cultivars (Barque. Cowabbie, and Schooner) and one breeding line (VB9104) with a different source of resistance was tested. Barque, which possessed a resistance gene that provided complete resistance to SFNB, was the most effective and showed no effect on grain yield or quality in the presence of inoculum. Generally, cultivars with seedling or adult resistance had less disease and better grain quality than the susceptible control. Dash, but they were not as effective as Barque. A preliminary differential set of 19 barley lines and cultivars for P teres I. maculata is proposed.

Validation of a new spot form of net blotch differential set and evidence for hybridisation between the spot and net forms of net blotch in Australia

A recently developed spot form of blotch differential set of 16 barley lines was tested for reaction response to 60 Pyrenophora teres f. maculata isolates from geographically disperse barley crops of Australia. Twelve barley lines (Arimont, Barque, Chebec, CI5286, CI5791, CI9214, CII6150, Dairokkaku, Esperance Orge 289, Galleon, Keel, Skiff, Torrens and TR250) provided differential response between the isolates. The susceptible controls Gairdner and Kombar provided indication of isolate virulence or avirulence. Abundant pathogenic diversity was revealed with 33 designated pathotypes, some of which related to geographic region. AFLP analysis also revealed abundant diversity with each of the isolates representing a unique genotype and one isolate that contained both AFLP bands unique to P. teres f. maculata and P. teres f. teres, the cause of spot form and net form of net blotch respectively, suggesting that sexual recombination between the net form and spot form isolates may have occurred naturally in the field.

Spot form of net blotch resistance in barley is under complex genetic control

Key message: Evaluation of resistance toPyrenophora teresf.maculatain barley breeding populations via association mapping revealed a complex genetic architecture comprising a mixture of major and minor effect genes. Abstract: In the search for stable resistance to spot form of net blotch (Pyrenophora teres f. maculata, SFNB), association mapping was conducted on four independent barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) breeding populations comprising a total of 898 unique elite breeding lines from the Northern Region Barley Breeding Program in Australia for discovery of quantitative trait loci (QTL) influencing resistance at seedling and adult plant growth stages. A total of 29 significant QTL were validated across multiple breeding populations, with 22 conferring resistance at both seedling and adult plant growth stages. The remaining 7 QTL conferred resistance at either seedling (2 QTL) or adult plant (5 QTL) growth stages only. These 29 QTL represented 24 unique genomic regions, of which five were found to co-locate with previously identified QTL for SFNB. The results indicated that SFNB resistance is controlled by a large number of QTL varying in effect size with large effects QTL on chromosome 7H. A large proportion of the QTL acted in the same direction for both seedling and adult responses, suggesting that phenotypic selection for SFNB resistance performed at either growth stage could achieve adequate levels of resistance. However, the accumulation of specific resistance alleles on several chromosomes must be considered in molecular breeding selection strategies.