Risk management strategies using seasonal climate forecasting in irrigated cotton production: a tale of stochastic dominance.

Decision-making in agriculture is carried out in an uncertain environment with farmers often seeking information to reduce risk. As a result of the extreme variability of rainfall and stream-flows in north-eastern Australia, water supplies for irrigated agriculture are a limiting factor and a source of risk. The present study examined the use of seasonal climate forecasting (SCF) when calculating planting areas for irrigated cotton in the northern Murray Darling Basin. Results show that minimising risk by adjusting plant areas in response to SCF can lead to significant gains in gross margin returns. However, how farmers respond to SCF is dependent on several other factors including irrigators’ attitude towards risk.

Formative evaluation to benchmark and improve climate-based decision support for graziers in Western Queelsland

Researchers developing climate-based forecasts, workshops, software tools and information to aid grazier decisions undertook an evaluation study to enhance planning and benchmark impact. One hundred graziers in Western Queensland were randomly selected from 7 shires and surveyed by mail and telephone (43 respondents) to explore levels of knowledge and use of climate information, practices and information needs. We found 36% of respondents apply the Southern Oscillation Index to property decisions but 92% were unaware El Niño Southern Oscillation’s predictive signal in the region is greater for pasture growth than rainfall, suggesting they may not recognise the potential of pasture growth forecasts. Almost 75% of graziers consider they are conservative or risk averse in their attitude to managing their enterprise. Mail respondents (n= 20) if given a 68%, on average, probability of exceeding median rainfall forecast may change a decision; almost two-thirds vary stocking rate based on forage available, last year’s pasture growth or the Southern Oscillation Index; the balance maintain a constant stocking rate strategy; 90% have access to a computer; 75% to the internet and 95% have a fax. This paper presents findings of the study and draws comparisons with a similar study of 174 irrigators in the Northern Murray-Darling Basin (Aust. J. Exp. Ag. 44, 247-257). New insights and information gained are helping the team better understand client needs and plan, design and extend tools and information tailored to grazier knowledge, practice, information needs and preferences. Results have also provided a benchmark against which to measure project impact and have influenced the team to make important changes to their project planning, activities and methods for transferring technology tailored to grazier preferences.

Rainfall and streamflow response to El Niño Southern Oscillation: a case study in a semiarid catchment, Australia.

This paper aims to compare the shift in frequency distribution and skill of seasonal climate forecasting of both streamflow and rainfall in eastern Australia based on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) Phase system. Recent advances in seasonal forecasting of climate variables have highlighted opportunities for improving decision making in natural resources management. Forecasting of rainfall probabilities for different regions in Australia is available, but the use of similar forecasts for water resource supply has not been developed. The use of streamflow forecasts may provide better information for decision-making in irrigation supply and flow management for improved ecological outcomes. To examine the relative efficacy of seasonal forecasting of streamflow and rainfall, the shift in probability distributions and the forecast skill were evaluated using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test and the linear error in probability space (LEPS) skill score, respectively, at three river gauging stations in the Border Rivers Catchment of the Murray-Darling Basin in eastern Australia. A comparison of rainfall and streamflow distributions confirms higher statistical significance in the shift of streamflow distribution than that in rainfall distribution. Moreover, streamflow distribution showed greater skill of forecasting with 0-3 month lead time, compared to rainfall distribution.

Meso-scale movement patterns of native fish

The Murray Darling Basin Commison sought information on the movement patterns of native fish in the Murray Darling River system in Queensland. Information is needed to determine daily movement patterns, movement direction and results of flow event analysis.

Improved methodology for introducing threatened hatchery reared fish

Eel tailed catfish, silver perch and Murray cod are three key recreational fishing species that have declined in the Murray-Darling Basin region. This research project will be an important step towards developing methods to restore and enhance stocks of these fish.

Water Use Efficiency Investment for Healthy Headwaters

Agri-Science Queensland to provide a range of extension services to improve water use efficiency in irrigated agriculture in the Queensland Murray Darling Basin and support the implementation of the Healthy Headwaters On-farm Water Use Efficiency program.

Demonstration reaches: Looking back whilst moving forward with river rehabilitation under the Native Fish Strategy

‘Demonstration reaches’ are sections of river where multiple threats to native fish are addressed through river rehabilitation and strong community participation. They are an important way of promoting the key driving actions of the Murray-Darling Basin Authority's Native Fish Strategy (NFS) by using on-ground community-driven rehabilitation. Measuring rehabilitation success against well-defined targets and using this information to adaptively mange activities is fundamental to the demonstration reach philosophy. Seven years on from the establishment of the first demonstration reach, there are now seven throughout the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), all in differing states of maturation and but all applying a standardised framework for monitoring native fish outcomes. In this study, we reflect on the role that demonstration reaches have played within the NFS, synthesise some key findings from 32 monitoring and evaluation outputs, and highlight some of the successes and barriers to success. We make recommendations as to how to strengthen the demonstration reach model to ensure it remains a relevant approach for fish habitat rehabilitation beyond the NFS and MDB.

Abundance and mortality of overwintering pupae of Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) on the Darling Downs, Queensland, Australia

Surveys were conducted between 1997 and 2001 to investigate the incidence of overwintering Helicoverpa spp. pupae under summer crop residues on the Darling Downs, Queensland. Only Helicoverpa armigera was represented in collections of overwintering pupae. The results indicated that late-season crops of cotton, sorghum, maize, soybean, mungbean and sunflower were equally likely to have overwintering pupae under them. In the absence of tillage practices, these crops had the potential to produce similar numbers of moths/ha in the spring. There were expected differences between years in the densities of overwintering pupae and the number of emerged moths/ha. Irrigated crops produced 2.5 times more moths/ha than dryland crops. Overall survival from autumn-formed pupae to emerged moths averaged 44%, with a higher proportion of pupae under maize surviving to produce moths than each of the other crops. Parasitoids killed 44.1% of pupae, with Heteropelma scaposum representing 83.3% of all parasitoids reared from pupae. Percentage parasitism levels were lower in irrigated crops (27.6%) compared with dryland crops (40.5%). Recent changes to Helicoverpa spp. management in cotton/grain-farming systems in south-eastern Queensland, including widespread adoption of Bt cotton, and use of more effective and more selective insecticides, could lead to lower densities of overwintering pupae under late summer crops.

The original native pasture ecosystems of the eastern and western Darling Downs - Can they be restored?

The original pasture ecosystems of southern inland Queensland ranged from treeless grasslands on cracking clays through grassy woodlands of varying density on a great range of soil types to those competing at the dynamic edges of forests and scrubs. Fire, both wild and aboriginal-managed, was a major factor, along with rainfall extremes, in shaping the pastures and tree:grass balance. Seedling recruitment was driven by rainfall extremes, availability of germinable seed and growing space, with seed availability and space being linked to the timing and intensity of recent fires and rain. The impact of insects, diseases, severe wind and hailstorms on recruitment should not be underestimated. The more fertile soils had denser grass growth, greater fire frequency and thinner tree cover than infertile soils, except where trees were so dense that grass growth was almost eliminated. The pastures were dominated by perennial tussock grasses of mid-height but included a wide array of minor herbaceous species whose abundance was linked to soil type and recent seasonal conditions. Many were strongly perennial with Asteraceae, Fabaceae, Malvaceae, Cyperaceae and Goodeniaceae most common in an environment, which can experience effective rainfall at any time of year. The former grassland communities that are now productive farming lands are not easily returned to their original composition. However, conservation of remnant examples of original pasture types is very achievable provided tree density is controlled, prescribed burning and grazing are used and rigorous control of invasive, exotic species is undertaken. This should be done with a clear understanding that significant short-and medium-term fluctuations in botanical composition are normal.

Delivering Regional Extension Cotton/Grains Farming Systems on the Darling Downs and Border Rivers

New regional extension project for the cotton/grains farming systems on the Darling Downs and Border Rivers with CRDC and Cotton CRC based on the CRDC/Agri-Science Queensland discussion paper.

Facilitating IPM adoption in northern region broadacre farming systems

The principal aim of the project was to contribute to the continuing adoption of integrated pest management (IPM) by grain growers in the GRDC's northern region, specifically, the Darling Downs and Central Queensland. This project provided an ongoing commitment to the development and refinement of pest management tactics, and continued support for the grower community by raising awareness of management options and strategies for their implementation. This outcome was achieved through facilitated learning by growers and their advisers via grower group meetings, field day demonstrations, technical literature and presentations by entomologists at technical forums.

Confirmed case of encephalitis caused by Murray Valley encephalitis virus infection in a horse

A 5-year-old Australian stock horse in Monto, Queensland, Australia, developed neurological signs and was euthanized after a 6-day course of illness. Histological examination of the brain and spinal cord revealed moderate to severe subacute, nonsuppurative encephalomyelitis. Sections of spinal cord stained positively in immunohistochemistry with a flavivirus-specific monoclonal antibody. Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction assay targeting the envelope gene of flavivirus yielded positive results from brain, spinal cord, cerebrospinal fluid, and facial nerve. A flavivirus was isolated from the cerebrum and spinal cord. Nucleotide sequences obtained from amplicons from both tissues and virus isolated in cell culture were compared with those in GenBank and had 96-98% identity with Murray Valley encephalitis virus. The partial envelope gene sequence of the viral isolate clustered into genotype 1 and was most closely related to a previous Queensland isolate.

Piggery pond sludge as a nitrogen source for crops. 1. Mineral N supply estimated from laboratory incubations and field application of stockpiled and wet sludge

Piggery pond sludge (PPS) was applied, as-collected (Wet PPS) and following stockpiling for 12 months (Stockpiled PPS), to a sandy Sodosol and clay Vertosol at sites on the Darling Downs of Queensland. Laboratory measures of N availability were carried out on unamended and PPS-amended soils to investigate their value in estimating supplementary N needs of crops in Australia's northern grains region. Cumulative net N mineralised from the long-term (30 weeks) leached aerobic incubation was described by a first-order single exponential model. The mineralisation rate constant (0.057/week) was not significantly different between Control and PPS treatments or across soil types, when the amounts of initial mineral N applied in PPS treatments were excluded. Potentially mineralisable N (No) was significantly increased by the application of Wet PPS, and increased with increasing rate of application. Application of Wet PPS significantly increased the total amount of inorganic N leached compared with the Control treatments. Mineral N applied in Wet PPS contributed as much to the total mineral N status of the soil as did that which mineralised over time from organic N. Rates of C02 evolution during 30 weeks of aerobic leached incubation indicated that the Stockpiled PPS was more stabilised (19-28% of applied organic C mineralised) than the WetPPS (35-58% of applied organic C mineralised), due to higher lignin content in the former. Net nitrate-N produced following 12 weeks of aerobic non-leached incubation was highly correlated with net nitrate-N leached during 12 weeks of aerobic incubation (R^2 = 0.96), although it was <60% of the latter in both sandy and clayey soils. Anaerobically mineralisable N determined by waterlogged incubation of laboratory PPS-amended soil samples increased with increasing application rate of Wet PPS. Anaerobically minemlisable N from field-moist soil was well correlated with net N mineralised during 30 weeks of aerobic leached incubation (R^2 =0.90 sandy soil; R^2=0.93 clay soil). In the clay soil, the amount of mineral N produced from all the laboratory incubations was significantly correlated with field-measured nitrate-N in the soil profile (0-1.5 m depth) after 9 months of weed-free fallow following PPS application. In contrast, only anaerobic mineralisable N was significantly correlated with field nitrate-N in the sandy soil. Anaerobic incubation would, therefore, be suitable as a rapid practical test to estimate potentially mineralisable N following applications of different PPS materials in the field.

Feeding sorghum ergot (Claviceps africana) to sows before farrowing inhibits milk production

Objective: To assess the impact of feeding different amounts of sorghum ergot to sows before farrowing. Design: Fifty-one pregnant sows from a continually farrowing piggery were sequentially inducted into the experiment each week in groups of four to seven, as they approached within 14 days of farrowing. Diets containing sorghum ergot sclerotia within the range of 0 (control) up to 1.5% w/w (1.5% ergot provided 7 mg alkaloids/kg, including 6 mg dihydroergosine/kg) were randomly allocated and individually fed to sows. Ergot concentrations were varied with each subsequent group until an acceptable level of tolerance was achieved. Diets with ergot were replaced with control diets after farrowing. Post-farrowing milk production was assessed by direct palpation and observation of udders, and by piglet responses and growth. Blood samples were taken from sows on three days each week, for prolactin estimation. Results: Three sows fed 1.5% ergot for 6 to 10 days preceding farrowing produced no milk, and 87% of their piglets died despite supplementary feeding of natural and artificial colostrums, milk replacer, and attempts to foster them onto normally lactating sows. Ergot inclusions of 0.6% to 1.2% caused lesser problems in milk release and neo-natal piglet mortality. Of 23 sows fed either 0.3% or 0.6% ergot, lactation of only two first-litter sows were affected. Ergot caused pronounced reductions in blood prolactin, and first-litter sows had lower plasma prolactin than multiparous sows, increasing their susceptibility to ergot. Conclusion: Sorghum ergot should not exceed 0.3% (1 mg alkaloid/kg) in diets of multiparous sows fed before farrowing, and should be limited to 0.1 % for primiparous sows, or avoided completely.

Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner): can wheat stubble protect cotton plants against attack?

When investigating strategies for Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner) control, it is important to understand oviposition behaviour. Cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) was sown into standing wheat (Triticum astivum L.) stubble in a closed arena to investigate the effect of stubble on H. armigera moth behaviour and oviposition. Infrared cameras were used to track moths and determine whether stubble acted as a physical barrier or provided camouflage to cotton plants, thereby reducing oviposition. Searching activity was observed to peak shortly before dawn (03:00 and 04:00 h) and remained high until just after dawn (4 h window). Moths spent more time resting on cotton plants than spiralling above them, and the least time flying across the arena. While female moths spent more time searching for cotton plants growing in wheat stubble, the difference in oviposition was not significant. As similar numbers of eggs were laid on cotton plants with stubble (3.5/plant SE +/- 0.87) and without stubble (2.5/plant SE +/- 0.91), wheat stubble does not appear to provide camouflage to cotton plants. There was no significant difference in the location of eggs deposited on cotton plants with and without stubble, although more eggs were laid on the tops of cotton leaves in wheat stubble. As the spatial and temporal distribution of eggs laid on the cotton plant is a crucial component of population stability, eggs laid on the upper side of leaves on cotton plants may be more prone to fatalities caused by environmental factors such as wind and rain. Therefore, although stubble did not influence the number of eggs laid, it did affect their distribution on the plant, which may result in increased mortality of eggs on cotton plants sown into standing wheat stubble.