Exploring profit - Sustainability trade-offs in cropping systems using evolutionary algorithms

Models that implement the bio-physical components of agro-ecosystems are ideally suited for exploring sustainability issues in cropping systems. Sustainability may be represented as a number of objectives to be maximised or minimised. However, the full decision space of these objectives is usually very large and simplifications are necessary to safeguard computational feasibility. Different optimisation approaches have been proposed in the literature, usually based on mathematical programming techniques. Here, we present a search approach based on a multiobjective evaluation technique within an evolutionary algorithm (EA), linked to the APSIM cropping systems model. A simple case study addressing crop choice and sowing rules in North-East Australian cropping systems is used to illustrate the methodology. Sustainability of these systems is evaluated in terms of economic performance and resource use. Due to the limited size of this sample problem, the quality of the EA optimisation can be assessed by comparison to the full problem domain. Results demonstrate that the EA procedure, parameterised with generic parameters from the literature, converges to a useable solution set within a reasonable amount of time. Frontier ‘‘peels’’ or Pareto-optimal solutions as described by the multiobjective evaluation procedure provide useful information for discussion on trade-offs between conflicting objectives.

Simple software processes and tests improve the reliability and usefulness of a model.

Models are abstractions of reality that have predetermined limits (often not consciously thought through) on what problem domains the models can be used to explore. These limits are determined by the range of observed data used to construct and validate the model. However, it is important to remember that operating the model beyond these limits, one of the reasons for building the model in the first place, potentially brings unwanted behaviour and thus reduces the usefulness of the model. Our experience with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), a farming systems model, has led us to adapt techniques from the disciplines of modelling and software development to create a model development process. This process is simple, easy to follow, and brings a much higher level of stability to the development effort, which then delivers a much more useful model. A major part of the process relies on having a range of detailed model tests (unit, simulation, sensibility, validation) that exercise a model at various levels (sub-model, model and simulation). To underline the usefulness of testing, we examine several case studies where simulated output can be compared with simple relationships. For example, output is compared with crop water use efficiency relationships gleaned from the literature to check that the model reproduces the expected function. Similarly, another case study attempts to reproduce generalised hydrological relationships found in the literature. This paper then describes a simple model development process (using version control, automated testing and differencing tools), that will enhance the reliability and usefulness of a model.

Runoff, soil loss, and nutrient transport from cropping systems on Red Ferrosols in tropical northern Australia.

Runoff, soil loss, and nutrient loss were assessed on a Red Ferrosol in tropical Australia over 3 years. The experiment was conducted using bounded, 100-m(2) field plots cropped to peanuts, maize, or grass. A bare plot, without cover or crop, was also instigated as an extreme treatment. Results showed the importance of cover in reducing runoff, soil loss, and nutrient loss from these soils. Runoff ranged from 13% of incident rainfall for the conventional cultivation to 29% under bare conditions during the highest rainfall year, and was well correlated with event rainfall and rainfall energy. Soil loss ranged from 30 t/ha. year under bare conditions to <6 t/ha. year under cropping. Nutrient losses of 35 kg N and 35 kg P/ha. year under bare conditions and 17 kg N and 11 kg P/ha. year under cropping were measured. Soil carbon analyses showed a relationship with treatment runoff, suggesting that soil properties influenced the rainfall runoff response. The cropping systems model PERFECT was calibrated using runoff, soil loss, and soil water data. Runoff and soil loss showed good agreement with observed data in the calibration, and soil water and yield had reasonable agreement. Longterm runs using historical weather data showed the episodic nature of runoff and soil loss events in this region and emphasise the need to manage land using protective measures such as conservation cropping practices. Farmers involved in related, action-learning activities wished to incorporate conservation cropping findings into their systems but also needed clear production benefits to hasten practice change.

Assessing the sustainability of wheat-based cropping systems using simulation modelling: sustainability

Concepts of agricultural sustainability and possible roles of simulation modelling for characterising sustainability were explored by conducting, and reflecting on, a sustainability assessment of rain-fed wheat-based systems in the Middle East and North Africa region. We designed a goal-oriented, model-based framework using the cropping systems model Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM). For the assessment, valid (rather than true or false) sustainability goals and indicators were identified for the target system. System-specific vagueness was depicted in sustainability polygons-a system property derived from highly quantitative data-and denoted using descriptive quantifiers. Diagnostic evaluations of alternative tillage practices demonstrated the utility of the framework to quantify key bio-physical and chemical constraints to sustainability. Here, we argue that sustainability is a vague, emergent system property of often wicked complexity that arises out of more fundamental elements and processes. A 'wicked concept of sustainability' acknowledges the breadth of the human experience of sustainability, which cannot be internalised in a model. To achieve socially desirable sustainability goals, our model-based approach can inform reflective evaluation processes that connect with the needs and values of agricultural decision-makers. Hence, it can help to frame meaningful discussions, from which actions might emerge.

Boosting the productivity and profitability of northern Australian beef enterprises: Exploring innovation options using simulation modelling and systems analysis

The financial health of beef cattle enterprises in northern Australia has declined markedly over the last decade due to an escalation in production and marketing costs and a real decline in beef prices. Historically, gains in animal productivity have offset the effect of declining terms of trade on farm incomes. This raises the question of whether future productivity improvements can remain a key path for lifting enterprise profitability sufficient to ensure that the industry remains economically viable over the longer term. The key objective of this study was to assess the production and financial implications for north Australian beef enterprises of a range of technology interventions (development scenarios), including genetic gain in cattle, nutrient supplementation, and alteration of the feed base through introduced pastures and forage crops, across a variety of natural environments. To achieve this objective a beef systems model was developed that is capable of simulating livestock production at the enterprise level, including reproduction, growth and mortality, based on energy and protein supply from natural C4 pastures that are subject to high inter-annual climate variability. Comparisons between simulation outputs and enterprise performance data in three case study regions suggested that the simulation model (the Northern Australia Beef Systems Analyser) can adequately represent the performance beef cattle enterprises in northern Australia. Testing of a range of development scenarios suggested that the application of individual technologies can substantially lift productivity and profitability, especially where the entire feedbase was altered through legume augmentation. The simultaneous implementation of multiple technologies that provide benefits to different aspects of animal productivity resulted in the greatest increases in cattle productivity and enterprise profitability, with projected weaning rates increasing by 25%, liveweight gain by 40% and net profit by 150% above current baseline levels, although gains of this magnitude might not necessarily be realised in practice. While there were slight increases in total methane output from these development scenarios, the methane emissions per kg of beef produced were reduced by 20% in scenarios with higher productivity gain. Combinations of technologies or innovative practices applied in a systematic and integrated fashion thus offer scope for providing the productivity and profitability gains necessary to maintain viable beef enterprises in northern Australia into the future.

Graze to grain - measuring and modelling the effects of grazed pasture leys on soil nitrogen and sorghum yield on a Vertosol soil in the Australian subtropics

Highly productive sown pasture systems can result in high growth rates of beef cattle and lead to increases in soil nitrogen and the production of subsequent crops. The nitrogen dynamics and growth of grain sorghum following grazed annual legume leys or a grass pasture were investigated in a no-till system in the South Burnett district of Queensland. Two years of the tropical legumes Macrotyloma daltonii and Vigna trilobata (both self regenerating annual legumes) and Lablab purpureus (a resown annual legume) resulted in soil nitrate N (0-0.9 m depth), at sorghum sowing, ranging from 35 to 86 kg/ha compared with 4 kg/ha after pure grass pastures. Average grain sorghum production in the 4 cropping seasons following the grazed legume leys ranged from 2651 to 4012 kg/ha. Following the grass pasture, grain sorghum production in the first and second year was < 1900 kg/ha and by the third year grain yield was comparable to the legume systems. Simulation studies utilising the farming systems model APSIM indicated that the soil N and water dynamics following 2-year ley phases could be closely represented over 4 years and the prediction of sorghum growth during this time was reasonable. In simulated unfertilised sorghum crops grown from 1954 to 2004, grain yield did not exceed 1500 kg/ha in 50% of seasons following a grass pasture, while following 2-year legume leys, grain exceeded 3000 kg/ha in 80% of seasons. It was concluded that mixed farming systems that utilise short term legume-based pastures for beef production in rotation with crop production enterprises can be highly productive.

Assessing the sustainability of wheat-based cropping systems using APSIM: Model parameterisation and evaluation

Assessing the sustainability of crop and soil management practices in wheat-based rotations requires a well-tested model with the demonstrated ability to sensibly predict crop productivity and changes in the soil resource. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) suite of models was parameterised and subsequently used to predict biomass production, yield, crop water and nitrogen (N) use, as well as long-term soil water and organic matter dynamics in wheat/chickpea systems at Tel Hadya, north-western Syria. The model satisfactorily simulated the productivity and water and N use of wheat and chickpea crops grown under different N and/or water supply levels in the 1998-99 and 1999-2000 experimental seasons. Analysis of soil-water dynamics showed that the 2-stage soil evaporation model in APSIM's cascading water-balance module did not sufficiently explain the actual soil drying following crop harvest under conditions where unused water remained in the soil profile. This might have been related to evaporation from soil cracks in the montmorillonitic clay soil, a process not explicitly simulated by APSIM. Soil-water dynamics in wheat-fallow and wheat-chickpea rotations (1987-98) were nevertheless well simulated when the soil water content in 0-0.45 m soil depth was set to 'air dry' at the end of the growing season each year. The model satisfactorily simulated the amounts of NO3-N in the soil, whereas it underestimated the amounts of NH 4-N. Ammonium fixation might be part of the soil mineral-N dynamics at the study site because montmorillonite is the major clay mineral. This process is not simulated by APSIM's nitrogen module. APSIM was capable of predicting long-term trends (1985-98) in soil organic matter in wheat-fallow and wheat-chickpea rotations at Tel Hadya as reported in literature. Overall, results showed that the model is generic and mature enough to be extended to this set of environmental conditions and can therefore be applied to assess the sustainability of wheat-chickpea rotations at Tel Hadya.

A multi-field bio-economic model of irrigated grain-cotton farming systems.

We present a participatory modelling framework that integrates information from interviews and discussions with farmers and consultants, with dynamic bio-economic models to answer complex questions on the allocation of limited resources at the farm business level. Interviews and discussions with farmers were used to: describe the farm business; identify relevant research questions; identify potential solutions; and discuss and learn from the whole-farm simulations. The simulations are done using a whole-farm, multi-field configuration of APSIM (APSFarm). APSFarm results were validated against farmers' experience. Once the model was accepted by the participating farmers as a fair representation of their farm business, the model was used to explore changes in the tactical or strategic management of the farm and results were then discussed to identify feasible options for improvement. Here we describe the modelling framework and present an example of the application of integrative whole farm system tools to answer relevant questions from an irrigated farm business case study near Dalby (151.27E - 27.17S), Queensland, Australia. Results indicated that even though cotton crops generates more farm income per hectare a more diversified rotation with less cotton would be relatively more profitable, with no increase in risk, as a more cotton dominated traditional rotation. Results are discussed in terms of the benefits and constraints from developing and applying more integrative approaches to represent farm businesses and their management in participatory research projects with the aim of designing more profitable and sustainable irrigated farming systems.