13 resultados para Measure of riskiness

em eResearch Archive - Queensland Department of Agriculture


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Sorghum ergot, caused by Claviceps africana, has remained a major disease problem in Australia since it was first recorded in 1996, and is the focus of a range of biological and integrated management research. Artificial inoculation using conidial suspensions is an important tool in this research. Ergot infection is greatly influenced by environmental factors, so it is important to reduce controllable sources of variation such as inoculum concentration. The use of optical density was tested as a method of quantifying conidial suspensions of C. africana, as an alternative to haemocytometer counts. This method was found to be accurate and time efficient, with possible applications in other disease systems.

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Spawning stock dynamics of 2 commercially important penaeid prawns, Metapenaeus bennettae and Penaeus esculentus, from 9 stations in Moreton Bay (27°15'S, 153°15'E), southeast Queensland, Australia, were examined. An egg production index (EPI), based on the relative abundance, proportion that were mature or ripe, and size of adult females, was used as a measure of egg production in the 2 populations. Egg production by M. bennettae was 20 to 30 higher than that by P. esculentus, extended over 7 to 8 mo each year and peaked from February to March (late summer to early autumn). Monthly patterns in egg production by M. bennettae varied between years. In contrast, P. esculentus produced most of its eggs in a single, clearly defined peak in October (spring), although production continued to March (early autumn) each year. The seasonal onset and subsequent decline in maturation in P. esculentus were rapid. Egg production by M. bennettae was several times higher at the 5 northern stations than at the 4 southern stations and negatively correlated with salinity during the main spawning period. Egg production by P. esculentus was less varied among stations and positively correlated with depth. P. esculentus appeared more likely than M. bennettae to experience recruitment overfishing because (1) the peak spawning period for P. esculentus was dependent on relatively few adult females spawning over a short period, and (2) the selectivity of trawl nets used in the bay was much higher for P. esculentus spawners than for those of M. bennettae. Compared with more northern populations, P. esculentus in Moreton Bay matured at a larger size, had lower incidences of insemination and mature or ripe females, and had a shorter spawning period. These results suggest the likelihood of recruitment overfishing in P. esculentus increases with increasing latitude.

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The widespread and increasing resistance of internal parasites to anthelmintic control is a serious problem for the Australian sheep and wool industry. As part of control programmes, laboratories use the Faecal Egg Count Reduction Test (FECRT) to determine resistance to anthelmintics. It is important to have confidence in the measure of resistance, not only for the producer planning a drenching programme but also for companies investigating the efficacy of their products. The determination of resistance and corresponding confidence limits as given in anthelmintic efficacy guidelines of the Standing Committee on Agriculture (SCA) is based on a number of assumptions. This study evaluated the appropriateness of these assumptions for typical data and compared the effectiveness of the standard FECRT procedure with the effectiveness of alternative procedures. Several sets of historical experimental data from sheep and goats were analysed to determine that a negative binomial distribution was a more appropriate distribution to describe pre-treatment helminth egg counts in faeces than a normal distribution. Simulated egg counts for control animals were generated stochastically from negative binomial distributions and those for treated animals from negative binomial and binomial distributions. Three methods for determining resistance when percent reduction is based on arithmetic means were applied. The first was that advocated in the SCA guidelines, the second similar to the first but basing the variance estimates on negative binomial distributions, and the third using Wadley’s method with the distribution of the response variate assumed negative binomial and a logit link transformation. These were also compared with a fourth method recommended by the International Co-operation on Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Registration of Veterinary Medicinal Products (VICH) programme, in which percent reduction is based on the geometric means. A wide selection of parameters was investigated and for each set 1000 simulations run. Percent reduction and confidence limits were then calculated for the methods, together with the number of times in each set of 1000 simulations the theoretical percent reduction fell within the estimated confidence limits and the number of times resistance would have been said to occur. These simulations provide the basis for setting conditions under which the methods could be recommended. The authors show that given the distribution of helminth egg counts found in Queensland flocks, the method based on arithmetic not geometric means should be used and suggest that resistance be redefined as occurring when the upper level of percent reduction is less than 95%. At least ten animals per group are required in most circumstances, though even 20 may be insufficient where effectiveness of the product is close to the cut off point for defining resistance.

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Experimental cattle are often restrained for repeated blood collection and faecal sampling and may baulk at entering the crush, possibly from learning that crush entry is followed by an unpleasant experience. We asked whether repeated sampling affects temperament. One measure of temperament is flight speed, which is the time, measured electronically, for an animal to cover a set distance on release from a weighing crate (Burrow et al. 1988). 22nd Biennial Conference.

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Survey methods were engaged to measure the change in use and knowledge of climate information by pastoralists in western Queensland. The initial mail survey was undertaken in 2000-01 (n=43) and provided a useful benchmark of pastoralists climate knowledge. Two years of climate applications activities were completed and clients were re-surveyed in 2003 (n=49) to measure the change in knowledge and assess the effectiveness of the climate applications activities. Two methods were used to assess changes in client knowledge, viz., self-assessment and test questions. We found that the use of seasonal climate forecasts in decision making increased from 36% in 2001 (n=42) to 51% in 2003 (n=49) (P=0.07). The self-assessment technique was unsatisfactory as a measure of changing knowledge over short periods (1-3 years), but the test question technique was successful and indicated an improvement in climate knowledge among respondents. The increased levels of use of seasonal climate forecasts in management and improved knowledge was partly attributed to the climate applications activities of the project. Further, those who used seasonal forecasting (n=25) didn't understand key components of forecasts (e.g. probability, median) better than those who didn't use seasonal forecasts (n=24) (P>0.05). This identifies the potential for misunderstanding and misinterpretation of forecasts among users and highlights the need for providers of forecasts to understand the difficulties and prepare simply written descriptions of forecasts and disseminate these with the maps showing probabilities. The most preferred means of accessing climate information were internet, email, 'The Season Ahead' newsletter and newspaper. The least preferred were direct contact with extension officers and attending field days and group meetings. Eighty-six percent of respondents used the internet and 67% used ADSL broadband internet (April 2003). Despite these findings, extension officers play a key role in preparing and publishing the information on the web, in emails and newsletters. We also believe that direct contact with extension officers trained in climate applications is desirable in workshop-like events to improve knowledge of the difficult concepts underpinning climate forecasts, which may then stimulate further adoption.

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Data from the eradication of the incursion of Bactrocera papayae Drew and Hancock (Dipt.: Tephritidae) in Australia (1995-1998) are used to assess the significance of various aspects of invasion theory, including the influence of towns on establishment, influence of propagule pressure on the pattern of establishment, and the existence of source-sink dynamics. Because there were no sentinel traps in place, considerable spread had occurred before the eradication campaign started. The distribution of fly density around the epicentre in the town of Cairns and a transect along the main traffic routes to the north and south fitted a Cauchy model with a tail having the same slope as a power model with an exponent of -2.4 extending to 160 km. The Cauchy model indicated that 50% of the flies on the transect would have occurred within 3.2 km of the epicentre, 90% within 13.2 km, and 99% within 60 km. The two major satellites at Mareeba (35 km from the epicentre in Cairns) and Mossman (65 km) were not used for the transect data and had respectively 15 and 30 times the density predicted by the model. The proportion of traps that caught flies (a measure of site occupancy) fell with distance from the epicentre. B. papayae was trapped consistently on only three of the 16 rainforest transects that were surveyed and these were relatively close to urban areas where eradication efforts were intense. Despite there being no eradication effort in the rainforest, the trends to extinction were similar to those in adjacent areas. The strategy of initially concentrating eradication efforts on the core and major satellites while maintaining a quarantine barrier at the airport and the boundaries of the infested area appears to be the key to the containment and rapid eradication of the incursion.

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In dryland cotton cropping systems, the main weeds and effectiveness of management practices were identified, and the economic impact of weeds was estimated using information collected in a postal and a field survey of Southern Queensland and northern New South Wales. Forty-eight completed questionnaires were returned, and 32 paddocks were monitored in early and late summer for weed species and density. The main problem weeds were bladder ketmia (Hibiscus trionum), common sowthistle (Sonchus oleraceus), barnyard grasses (Echinochloa spp.), liverseed grass (Urochloa panicoides) and black bindweed (Fallopia convolvulus), but the relative importance of these differed with crops, fallows and crop rotations. The weed flora was diverse with 54 genera identified in the field survey. Control of weed growth in rotational crops and fallows depended largely on herbicides, particularly glyphosate in fallow and atrazine in sorghum, although effective control was not consistently achieved. Weed control in dryland cotton involved numerous combinations of selective herbicides, several non-selective herbicides, inter-row cultivation and some manual chipping. Despite this, residual weeds were found at 38-59% of initial densities in about 3-quarters of the survey paddocks. The on-farm financial costs of weeds ranged from $148 to 224/ha.year depending on the rotation, resulting in an estimated annual economic cost of $19.6 million. The approach of managing weed populations across the whole cropping system needs wider adoption to reduce the weed pressure in dryland cotton and the economic impact of weeds in the long term. Strategies that optimise herbicide performance and minimise return of weed seed to the soil are needed. Data from the surveys provide direction for research to improve weed management in this cropping system. The economic framework provides a valuable measure of evaluating likely future returns from technologies or weed management improvements.

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Objective 1. Measure spatial and temporal trawl frequency of scallop grounds using VMS data. This will provide a relative measure of how often individual undersized scallops are caught and put through a tumbler 2. Estimate discard mortality and growth rates for saucer scallops using cage experiments. 3. Evaluate the current management measures, in particular the seasonal closure, rotational closure and seasonally varying minimum legal sizes using stock assessment and management modeling models. Recommend optimal range of management measures to ensure long-term viability and value of the Scallop fishery based on a formal management strategy evaluation. Outcomes acheived to date: 1. Improved understanding of the survival rates of discarded sub-legal scallops; 2. Preliminary von Bertalanffy growth parameters using data from tagged-and-released scallops; 3. Changing trends in vessels and fishing gear used in the Queensland scallop fishery and their effect on scallop catch rates over time using standardised catch rates quantified; 4. Increases in fishing power of vessels operating in the Queensland scallop fishery quantified; 5. Trawl intensity mapped and quantified for all Scallop Replenishment Areas; 6. Harvest Strategy Evaluations completed.

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Australian and international chickpea (Cicer arietinum) cultivars and germplasm accessions, and wild annual Cicer spp. in the primary and secondary gene pools, were assessed in glasshouse experiments for levels of resistance to the root-lesion nematodes Pratylenchus thornei and P. neglectus. Lines were grown in replicated experiments in pasteurised soil inoculated with a pure culture of either P. thornei or P. neglectus and the population density of the nematodes in the soil plus roots after 16 weeks growth was used as a measure of resistance. Combined statistical analyses of experiments (nine for P. thornei and four for P. neglectus) were conducted and genotypes were assessed using best linear unbiased predictions. Australian and international chickpea cultivars possessed a similar range of susceptibilities through to partial resistance. Wild relatives from both the primary (C. reticulatum and C. echinospermum) and secondary (C. bijugum) gene pools of chickpea were generally more resistant than commercial chickpea cultivars to either P. thornei or P. neglectus or both. Wild relatives of chickpea have probably evolved to have resistance to endemic root-lesion nematodes whereas modern chickpea cultivars constitute a narrower gene pool with respect to nematode resistance. Resistant accessions of C. reticulatum and C. echinospermum were crossed and topcrossed with desi chickpea cultivars and resistant F(4) lines were obtained. Development of commercial cultivars with the high levels of resistance to P. thornei and P. neglectus in these hybrids will be most valuable for areas of the Australian grain region and other parts of the world where alternating chickpea and wheat crops are the preferred rotation.

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On-going, high-profile public debate about climate change has focussed attention on how to monitor the soil organic carbon stock (C(s)) of rangelands (savannas). Unfortunately, optimal sampling of the rangelands for baseline C(s) - the critical first step towards efficient monitoring - has received relatively little attention to date. Moreover, in the rangelands of tropical Australia relatively little is known about how C(s) is influenced by the practice of cattle grazing. To address these issues we used linear mixed models to: (i) unravel how grazing pressure (over a 12-year period) and soil type have affected C(s) and the stable carbon isotope ratio of soil organic carbon (delta(13)C) (a measure of the relative contributions of C(3) and C(4) vegetation to C(s)); (ii) examine the spatial covariation of C(s) and delta(13)C; and, (iii) explore the amount of soil sampling required to adequately determine baseline C(s). Modelling was done in the context of the material coordinate system for the soil profile, therefore the depths reported, while conventional, are only nominal. Linear mixed models revealed that soil type and grazing pressure interacted to influence C(s) to a depth of 0.3 m in the profile. At a depth of 0.5 m there was no effect of grazing on C(s), but the soil type effect on C(s) was significant. Soil type influenced delta(13)C to a soil depth of 0.5 m but there was no effect of grazing at any depth examined. The linear mixed model also revealed the strong negative correlation of C(s) with delta(13)C, particularly to a depth of 0.1 m in the soil profile. This suggested that increased C(s) at the study site was associated with increased input of C from C(3) trees and shrubs relative to the C(4) perennial grasses; as the latter form the bulk of the cattle diet, we contend that C sequestration may be negatively correlated with forage production. Our baseline C(s) sampling recommendation for cattle-grazing properties of the tropical rangelands of Australia is to: (i) divide the property into units of apparently uniform soil type and grazing management; (ii) use stratified simple random sampling to spread at least 25 soil sampling locations about each unit, with at least two samples collected per stratum. This will be adequate to accurately estimate baseline mean C(s) to within 20% of the true mean, to a nominal depth of 0.3 m in the profile.

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Early-in-life female and male measures with potential to be practical genetic indicators were chosen from earlier analyses and examined together with genomic measures for multi-trait use to improve female reproduction of Brahman cattle. Combinations of measures were evaluated on the genetic gains expected from selection of sires and dams for each of age at puberty (AGECL, i.e. first observation of a corpus luteum), lactation anoestrous interval in 3-year-old cows (LAI), and lifetime annual weaning rate (LAWR, i.e. the weaning rate of cows based on the number of annual matings they experienced over six possible matings). Selection was on an index of comparable records for each combination. Selection intensities were less than theoretically possible but assumed a concerted selection effort was able to be made across the Brahman breed. The results suggested that substantial genetic gains could be possible but need to be confirmed in other data. The estimated increase in LAWR in 10 years, for combinations without or with genomic measures, ranged from 8 to 12 calves weaned per 100 cows from selection of sires, and from 12 to 15 calves weaned per 100 cows from selection of sires and dams. Corresponding reductions in LAI were 60-103 days or 94-136 days, and those for AGECL were 95-125 or 141-176 days, respectively. Coat score (a measure of the sleekness or wooliness of the coat) and hip height in females, and preputial eversion and liveweight in males, were measures that may warrant wider recording for Brahman female reproduction genetic evaluation. Pregnancy-test outcomes from Matings 1 and 2 also should be recorded. Percentage normal sperm may be important to record for reducing LAI and scrotal size and serum insulin-like growth factor-I concentration in heifers at 18 months for reducing AGECL. Use of a genomic estimated breeding value (EBV) in combination with other measures added to genetic gains, especially at genomic EBV accuracies of 40%. Accuracies of genomic EBVs needed to approach 60% for the genomic EBV to be the most important contributor to gains in the combinations of measures studied.

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Reproductive efficiency is an important determinant of profitable cattle breeding systems and the success of assisted reproductive techniques (ART) in wildlife conservation programs. Methods of estrous detection used in intensive beef and dairy cattle systems lack accuracy and remain the single biggest issue for improvement of reproductive rates and such methods are not practical for either large-scale extensive beef cattle enterprises or free-living mammalian species. Recent developments in UHF (ultra high frequency) proximity logger telemetry devices have been used to provide a continuous pair-wise measure of associations between individual animals for both livestock and wildlife. The objective of this study was to explore the potential of using UHF telemetry to identify the reproductive cycle phenotype in terms of intensity and duration of estrus. The study was conducted using Belmont Red (interbred Africander Brahman Hereford–Shorthorn) cattle grazing irrigated pasture on Belmont Research Station, northeastern Australia. The cow-bull associations from three groups of cows each with one bull were recorded over a 7-week breeding season and the stage of estrus was identified using ultrasonography. Telemetry data from bull and cows, collected over 4 8-day logger deployments, were log transformed and analyzed by ANOVA. Both the number and duration of bull-cow affiliations were significantly (P < 0.001) greater in estrous cows compared to anestrus cows. These results support the development of the UHF technology as a hands-off and noninvasive means of gathering socio-sexual information on both wildlife and livestock for reproductive management.

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A commercial issue currently facing native plant food producers and food processors, and identified by the industry itself, is that of delivering quality products consistently and at reasonable cost to end users based on a sound food technology and nutrition platform. A literature survey carried out in July 2001 by the DPI&F’s Centre for Food Technology, Brisbane in collaboration with the University of Queensland to collect the latest information at that time on the functional food market as it pertained to native food plants, indicated that little or no work had been published on this topic. This project addresses two key RIRDC sub program strategies: to identify and evaluate processes or products with prospects of commercial viability and to assist in the development of integrated production, harvesting, processing and marketing systems. This project proposal also reflects a key RIRDC R&D issue for 2002-2003; that of linking with prospective members of the value chain. The purpose of this project was to obtain chemical data on the post harvest stability of functional nutritional components (bio actives) in commercially available, hand harvested bush tomato and Kakadu plum. The project concentrated on evaluating bioactive stability as a measure of ingredient quality.