Assessment of internal quality attributes of mandarin fruit. 1. NIR calibration model development

The utility of near infrared spectroscopy as a non-invasive technique for the assessment of internal eating quality parameters of mandarin fruit (Citrus reticulata cv. Imperial) was assessed. The calibration procedure for the attributes of TSS (total soluble solids) and DM (dry matter) was optimised with respect to a reference sampling technique, scan averaging, spectral window, data pre-treatment (in terms of derivative treatment and scatter correction routine) and regression procedure. The recommended procedure involved sampling of an equatorial position on the fruit with 1 scan per spectrum, and modified partial least squares model development on a 720–950-nm window, pre-treated as first derivative absorbance data (gap size of 4 data points) with standard normal variance and detrend scatter correction. Calibration model performance for the attributes of TSS and DM content was encouraging (typical Rc2 of >0.75 and 0.90, respectively; typical root mean squared standard error of calibration of <0.4 and 0.6%, respectively), whereas that for juiciness and total acidity was unacceptable. The robustness of the TSS and DM calibrations across new populations of fruit is documented in a companion study.

Genetic diversity, aggressiveness and metalaxyl sensitivity of Pythium aphanidermatum populations infecting cucumber in Oman

Seventy three isolates of Pythium aphanidermatum obtained from cucumber from four different regions of Oman and 16 isolates of muskmelon from the Batinah region in Oman were characterized for aggressiveness, sensitivity to metalaxyl and genetic diversity using AFLP fingerprinting. Twenty isolates of P. aphanidermatum from diverse hosts from different countries were also included in the study. Most isolates from Oman were found to be aggressive on cucumber seedlings and all were highly sensitive to metalaxyl (EC50 < 0•80 µg mL−1). Isolates from cucumber and muskmelon were as aggressive as each other on both hosts (P > 0.05), which implies a lack of host specialization in P. aphanidermatum on these two hosts in Oman. AFLP analysis of all isolates using four primer-pair combinations resolved 152 bands, of which 61 (~40%) were polymorphic. Isolates of P. aphanidermatum from Oman and other countries exhibited high genetic similarity (mean = 94.1%) and produced 59 different AFLP profiles. Analysis of molecular variance indicated that most AFLP variation among populations of P. aphanidermatum in Oman was associated with geographical regions (FST = 0.118; P < 0.0001), not hosts (FST = -0.004; P = 0.4323). These data were supported by the high rate of recovery (24%) of identical phenotypes between cucumber and muskmelon fields in the same region as compared to the low recovery (10%) across regions in Oman, which suggests more frequent movement of Pythium inoculum among muskmelon and cucumber fields in the same region compared to movement across geographically separated regions. However, recovering clones among regions and different countries may imply circulation of Pythium inoculum via common sources in Oman and also intercontinental spread of isolates.

The genetic effective and adult census size of an Australian population of tiger prawns (Penaeus esculentus)

This study compares estimates of the census size of the spawning population with genetic estimates of effective current and long-term population size for an abundant and commercially important marine invertebrate, the brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus). Our aim was to focus on the relationship between genetic effective and census size that may provide a source of information for viability analyses of naturally occurring populations. Samples were taken in 2001, 2002 and 2003 from a population on the east coast of Australia and temporal allelic variation was measured at eight polymorphic microsatellite loci. Moments-based and maximum-likelihood estimates of current genetic effective population size ranged from 797 to 1304. The mean long-term genetic effective population size was 9968. Although small for a large population, the effective population size estimates were above the threshold where genetic diversity is lost at neutral alleles through drift or inbreeding. Simulation studies correctly predicted that under these experimental conditions the genetic estimates would have non-infinite upper confidence limits and revealed they might be overestimates of the true size. We also show that estimates of mortality and variance in family size may be derived from data on average fecundity, current genetic effective and census spawning population size, assuming effective population size is equivalent to the number of breeders. This work confirms that it is feasible to obtain accurate estimates of current genetic effective population size for abundant Type III species using existing genetic marker technology.

Spatial model of site index based on Y-ray spectrometry and a digital elevation model for two Pinus species in Tuan Toolara State Forest, Queensland, Australia

Site index prediction models are an important aid for forest management and planning activities. This paper introduces a multiple regression model for spatially mapping and comparing site indices for two Pinus species (Pinus elliottii Engelm. and Queensland hybrid, a P. elliottii x Pinus caribaea Morelet hybrid) based on independent variables derived from two major sources: g-ray spectrometry (potassium (K), thorium (Th), and uranium (U)) and a digital elevation model (elevation, slope, curvature, hillshade, flow accumulation, and distance to streams). In addition, interpolated rainfall was tested. Species were coded as a dichotomous dummy variable; interaction effects between species and the g-ray spectrometric and geomorphologic variables were considered. The model explained up to 60% of the variance of site index and the standard error of estimate was 1.9 m. Uranium, elevation, distance to streams, thorium, and flow accumulation significantly correlate to the spatial variation of the site index of both species, and hillshade, curvature, elevation and slope accounted for the extra variability of one species over the other. The predicted site indices varied between 20.0 and 27.3 m for P. elliottii, and between 23.1 and 33.1 m for Queensland hybrid; the advantage of Queensland hybrid over P. elliottii ranged from 1.8 to 6.8 m, with the mean at 4.0 m. This compartment-based prediction and comparison study provides not only an overview of forest productivity of the whole plantation area studied but also a management tool at compartment scale.

The accuracy of varietal selection using factor analytic models for multi-environment plant breeding trials

Modeling of cultivar x trial effects for multienvironment trials (METs) within a mixed model framework is now common practice in many plant breeding programs. The factor analytic (FA) model is a parsimonious form used to approximate the fully unstructured form of the genetic variance-covariance matrix in the model for MET data. In this study, we demonstrate that the FA model is generally the model of best fit across a range of data sets taken from early generation trials in a breeding program. In addition, we demonstrate the superiority of the FA model in achieving the most common aim of METs, namely the selection of superior genotypes. Selection is achieved using best linear unbiased predictions (BLUPs) of cultivar effects at each environment, considered either individually or as a weighted average across environments. In practice, empirical BLUPs (E-BLUPs) of cultivar effects must be used instead of BLUPs since variance parameters in the model must be estimated rather than assumed known. While the optimal properties of minimum mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) and maximum correlation between true and predicted effects possessed by BLUPs do not hold for E-BLUPs, a simulation study shows that E-BLUPs perform well in terms of MSEP.

From inferential statistics to climate knowledge

Climate variability and change are risk factors for climate sensitive activities such as agriculture. Managing these risks requires "climate knowledge", i.e. a sound understanding of causes and consequences of climate variability and knowledge of potential management options that are suitable in light of the climatic risks posed. Often such information about prognostic variables (e.g. yield, rainfall, run-off) is provided in probabilistic terms (e.g. via cumulative distribution functions, CDF), whereby the quantitative assessments of these alternative management options is based on such CDFs. Sound statistical approaches are needed in order to assess whether difference between such CDFs are intrinsic features of systems dynamics or chance events (i.e. quantifying evidences against an appropriate null hypothesis). Statistical procedures that rely on such a hypothesis testing framework are referred to as "inferential statistics" in contrast to descriptive statistics (e.g. mean, median, variance of population samples, skill scores). Here we report on the extension of some of the existing inferential techniques that provides more relevant and adequate information for decision making under uncertainty.

Inheritance of resistance to root-lesion nematode (Pratylenchus thornei) in wheat landraces and cultivars from the West Asia and North Africa (WANA) region.

The root-lesion nematode Pratylenchus thornei causes substantial loss to bread wheat production in the northern grain region of Australia and other parts of the world. West Asia and North Africa (WANA) wheat accessions with partial resistance to P. thornei were analysed for mode of inheritance in a half-diallel crossing design of F1 hybrids (10 parents) and F2 populations (7 parents). General combining ability was more important than specific combining ability as indicated by components of variance ratios of 0.93 and 0.95 in diallel ANOVA of the F1 and F2 generations, respectively. General combining ability values of the 'resistant' parents were predictive of the mean nematode numbers of their progeny in crosses with the susceptible Australian cv. Janz at the F1 (R populations showed relatively continuous distributions. Heritability was 0.68 for F2 populations in the half-diallel of resistant parents and 0.82-0.92 for 5 'resistant' parent/Janz doubled-haploid populations (narrow-sense heritability on a line mean basis). The results indicate polygenic inheritance of P. thornei resistance with a minimum of from 2 to 6 genes involved in individual F populations of 5 resistant parents crossed with Janz. Morocco 426 and Iraq 43 appear to be the best of the parents tested for breeding for resistance to P. thornei. None of the P. thornei-resistant WANA accessions was resistant to Pratylenchus neglectus.

Performance of Pinus elliottii, Pinus caribaea, their F-1, F-2 and backcross hybrids and Pinus taeda to 10 years in the Mesopotamia region, Argentina

Performances of Pinus taxa were studied to 10 years of age in two trials in each of Misiones and Entre Rios provinces across the Mesopotamia region of Argentina. Taxa comprised 22 populations from sources in Argentina, Australia, Brazil and Zimbabwe including Pinus elliottii var. elliottii (Pee), Pinus caribaea var. hondurensis (Pch), their four, inter-specific hybrids (F-1, F-2 and backcrosses from F-1 to Pch and to Pee-all as broadly based bulks); other Pee and Pinus taeda (Pt) comprised narrower or unspecified bulks. Variable numbers of taxa were missing at each site. Mean survival across sites at age 10 years ranged 53.2-91.3% averaging 74.2%. Analysis of variance of plot means indicated population effect was statistically significant (p < 0.05) for all or most growth and quality traits at all sites. However, significant differences from the nominated check seedlot at the Entre Rios sites (Pee, Australia) were extremely rare, while quite common at the northern, Misiones sites (check seedlot a Pt population). In the Misiones trials, F-1, F-2 and both backcross hybrids showed better stem straightness than Pee and Pt from Argentina, generally with statistically significant differences (p < 0.05). Pt showed lowest forking scores (desirable). Taxon x environment interaction was statistically significant (p < 0.01) for growth traits only (p > 0.05). However, this interaction contributed an average of only 34.1% of the taxon variance suggesting a lack of practical importance. Taxa most suitable for deployment in the Mesopotamia region, Argentina are suggested.

Large-chamber methane and nitrous oxide measurements are comparable to the backward Lagrangian stochastic method

Measurement of individual emission sources (e.g., animals or pen manure) within intensive livestock enterprises is necessary to test emission calculation protocols and to identify targets for decreased emissions. In this study, a vented, fabric-covered large chamber (4.5 × 4.5 m, 1.5 m high; encompassing greater spatial variability than a smaller chamber) in combination with on-line analysis (nitrous oxide [N2O] and methane [CH4] via Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy; 1 analysis min-1) was tested as a means to isolate and measure emissions from beef feedlot pen manure sources. An exponential model relating chamber concentrations to ambient gas concentrations, air exchange (e.g., due to poor sealing with the surface; model linear when ≈ 0 m3 s-1), and chamber dimensions allowed data to be fitted with high confidence. Alternating manure source emission measurements using the large-chamber and the backward Lagrangian stochastic (bLS) technique (5-mo period; bLS validated via tracer gas release, recovery 94-104%) produced comparable N2O and CH4 emission values (no significant difference at P < 0.05). Greater precision of individual measurements was achieved via the large chamber than for the bLS (mean ± standard error of variance components: bLS half-hour measurements, 99.5 ± 325 mg CH4 s-1 and 9.26 ± 20.6 mg N2O s-1; large-chamber measurements, 99.6 ± 64.2 mg CH4 s-1 and 8.18 ± 0.3 mg N2O s-1). The large-chamber design is suitable for measurement of emissions from manure on pen surfaces, isolating these emissions from surrounding emission sources, including enteric emissions. © © American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America.

Estimating daily methane production in individual cattle with irregular feed intake patterns from short-term methane emission measurements

Spot measurements of methane emission rate (n = 18 700) by 24 Angus steers fed mixed rations from GrowSafe feeders were made over 3- to 6-min periods by a GreenFeed emission monitoring (GEM) unit. The data were analysed to estimate daily methane production (DMP; g/day) and derived methane yield (MY; g/kg dry matter intake (DMI)). A one-compartment dose model of spot emission rate v. time since the preceding meal was compared with the models of Wood (1967) and Dijkstra et al. (1997) and the average of spot measures. Fitted values for DMP were calculated from the area under the curves. Two methods of relating methane and feed intakes were then studied: the classical calculation of MY as DMP/DMI (kg/day); and a novel method of estimating DMP from time and size of preceding meals using either the data for only the two meals preceding a spot measurement, or all meals for 3 days prior. Two approaches were also used to estimate DMP from spot measurements: fitting of splines on a 'per-animal per-day' basis and an alternate approach of modelling DMP after each feed event by least squares (using Solver), summing (for each animal) the contributions from each feed event by best-fitting a one-compartment model. Time since the preceding meal was of limited value in estimating DMP. Even when the meal sizes and time intervals between a spot measurement and all feeding events in the previous 72 h were assessed, only 16.9% of the variance in spot emission rate measured by GEM was explained by this feeding information. While using the preceding meal alone gave a biased (underestimate) of DMP, allowing for a longer feed history removed this bias. A power analysis taking into account the sources of variation in DMP indicated that to obtain an estimate of DMP with a 95% confidence interval within 5% of the observed 64 days mean of spot measures would require 40 animals measured over 45 days (two spot measurements per day) or 30 animals measured over 55 days. These numbers suggest that spot measurements could be made in association with feed efficiency tests made over 70 days. Spot measurements of enteric emissions can be used to define DMP but the number of animals and samples are larger than are needed when day-long measures are made.