Evaluating and validating abundance monitoring methods in the absence of populations of known size: review and application to a passive tracking index

Rarely is it possible to obtain absolute numbers in free-ranging populations and although various direct and indirect methods are used to estimate abundance, few are validated against populations of known size. In this paper, we apply grounding, calibration and verification methods, used to validate mathematical models, to methods of estimating relative abundance. To illustrate how this might be done, we consider and evaluate the widely applied passive tracking index (PTI) methodology. Using published data, we examine the rationality of PTI methodology, how conceptually animal activity and abundance are related and how alternative methods are subject to similar biases or produce similar abundance estimates and trends. We then attune the method against populations representing a range of densities likely to be encountered in the field. Finally, we compare PTI trends against a prediction that adjacent populations of the same species will have similar abundance values and trends in activity. We show that while PTI abundance estimates are subject to environmental and behavioural stochasticity peculiar to each species, the PTI method and associated variance estimate showed high probability of detection, high precision of abundance values and, generally, low variability between surveys, and suggest that the PTI method applied using this procedure and for these species provides a sensitive and credible index of abundance. This same or similar validation approach can and should be applied to alternative relative abundance methods in order to demonstrate their credibility and justify their use.

Performance of Sirex noctilio’s biocontrol agent Deladenus siricidicola, in known and predicted hosts

Survival of the free-living mycetophagous form of Deladenus siricidicola, the major biological control agent of Sirex woodwasp, Sirex noctilio, was tested in known (Pinus taeda) and predicted novel (P. elliottii subsp. elliottii × P. caribaea var. hondurensis) hybrid host taxa. Trials were established in the field to simulate nematode dispersal both naturally by infected wasps and following commercial inoculation, as well as in the laboratory under controlled conditions. Nematodes showed reduced survival in hybrid pine compared with P. taeda for all tree-associated treatments, but performed equivalently in petri-dish bioassays containing substrate of each taxon. Growth of Amylostereum areolatum, the food source of D. siricidicola was lower on plates containing ground hybrid substrate than on plates containing ground P. taeda. Some physical differences were found between taxa, including differences in bordered pit diameters, tracheid widths, and basic density, but these did not consistently explain reduced performance. More plant secondary compounds (predominantly oleoresins) were present in hybrid taxa than in P. taeda, and in standing trees compared with felled trees. Our results suggested that D. siricidicola may not be as effective in hybrid pine taxa for the biological control of S. noctilio as it is in its current known host taxa, possibly because of reduced growth of its food source, A. areolatum in hybrid pine.