Formative evaluation to benchmark and improve climate-based decision support for graziers in Western Queelsland

Researchers developing climate-based forecasts, workshops, software tools and information to aid grazier decisions undertook an evaluation study to enhance planning and benchmark impact. One hundred graziers in Western Queensland were randomly selected from 7 shires and surveyed by mail and telephone (43 respondents) to explore levels of knowledge and use of climate information, practices and information needs. We found 36% of respondents apply the Southern Oscillation Index to property decisions but 92% were unaware El Niño Southern Oscillation’s predictive signal in the region is greater for pasture growth than rainfall, suggesting they may not recognise the potential of pasture growth forecasts. Almost 75% of graziers consider they are conservative or risk averse in their attitude to managing their enterprise. Mail respondents (n= 20) if given a 68%, on average, probability of exceeding median rainfall forecast may change a decision; almost two-thirds vary stocking rate based on forage available, last year’s pasture growth or the Southern Oscillation Index; the balance maintain a constant stocking rate strategy; 90% have access to a computer; 75% to the internet and 95% have a fax. This paper presents findings of the study and draws comparisons with a similar study of 174 irrigators in the Northern Murray-Darling Basin (Aust. J. Exp. Ag. 44, 247-257). New insights and information gained are helping the team better understand client needs and plan, design and extend tools and information tailored to grazier knowledge, practice, information needs and preferences. Results have also provided a benchmark against which to measure project impact and have influenced the team to make important changes to their project planning, activities and methods for transferring technology tailored to grazier preferences.

Predicting wood value in Queensland Caribbean pine plantations using a decision support system

A decision support system has been developed in Queensland to evaluate how changes in silvicultural regimes affect wood quality, and specifically the graded recovery of structural timber. Models of tree growth, branch architecture and wood properties were developed from data collected in routine Caribbean pine plantations and specific silvicultural experiments. These models were incorporated in software that simulates the conversion of standing trees into logs, and the logs into boards, and generates detailed data on knot location and basic density distribution. The structural grade of each board was determined by simulating the machine stress-grading process, and the predicted graded recovery provided an indicator of wood value. The decision support system improves the basis of decision-making by simulating the performance of elite genetic material under specified silvicultural regimes and by predicting links between wood quality and general stand attributes such as stocking and length of rotation.

Selecting replacements for invasive plants to support frugivores in highly modified sites: a case study focusing on Lantana camara

Invasive plants are regarded as a major threat to biodiversity worldwide. Yet, in some cases, invasive plants now perform important ecological functions. For example, fleshy-fruited invasive plants provide food that supports indigenous frugivore populations. How can the disparate goals of conservation versus invasive weed control be managed? We suggest using the fruit characteristics of the invasive plant to select replacement indigenous plants that are functionally similar from the perspective of frugivores. These could provide replacement food resources at sites where plants with these characteristics are part of the goal plant community and where such plants would not otherwise regenerate. Replacement plants could also redirect seed dispersal processes to favour indigenous, rather than invasive, plant species. We investigated the utility of this approach by ranking all indigenous fleshy-fruited plant species from a region using a simple model that scored species based upon measures of fruit phenology, morphology, conspicuousness and accessibility relative to a target invasive species, Lantana (Lantana camara). The model successfully produced high scores for indigenous plant species that were used by more of the frugivores of Lantana than a random selection of plants, suggesting that this approach warrants further investigation.

Action learning in partnership with Landcare and catchment management groups to support increased pasture sowings in southern inland Queensland

The incorporation of sown pastures as short-term rotations into the cropping systems of northern Australia has been slow. The inherent chemical fertility and physical stability of the predominant vertisol soils across the region enabled farmers to grow crops for decades without nitrogen fertiliser, and precluded the evolution of a crop–pasture rotation culture. However, as less fertile and less physically stable soils were cropped for extended periods, farmers began to use contemporary farming and sown pasture technologies to rebuild and maintain their soils. This has typically involved sowing long-term grass and grass–legume pastures on the more marginal cropping soils of the region. In partnership with the catchment management authority, the Queensland Murray–Darling Committee (QMDC) and Landcare, a pasture extension process using the LeyGrain™ package was implemented in 2006 within two Grain & Graze projects in the Maranoa-Balonne and Border Rivers catchments in southern inland Queensland. The specific objectives were to increase the area sown to high quality pasture and to gain production and environmental benefits (particularly groundcover) through improving the skills of producers in pasture species selection, their understanding and management of risk during pasture establishment, and in managing pastures and the feed base better. The catalyst for increasing pasture sowings was a QMDC subsidy scheme for increasing groundcover on old cropping land. In recognising a need to enhance pasture knowledge and skills to implement this scheme, the QMDC and Landcare producer groups sought the involvement of, and set specific targets for, the LeyGrain workshop process. This is a highly interactive action learning process that built on the existing knowledge and skills of the producers. Thirty-four workshops were held with more than 200 producers in 26 existing groups and with private agronomists. An evaluation process assessed the impact of the workshops on the learning and skill development by participants, their commitment to practice change, and their future intent to sow pastures. The results across both project catchments were highly correlated. There was strong agreement by producers (>90%) that the workshops had improved knowledge and skills regarding the adaptation of pasture species to soils and climates, enabling a better selection at the paddock level. Additional strong impacts were in changing the attitudes of producers to all aspects of pasture establishment, and the relative species composition of mixtures. Producers made a strong commitment to practice change, particularly in managing pasture as a specialist crop at establishment to minimise risk, and in the better selection and management of improved pasture species (particularly legumes and the use of fertiliser). Producers have made a commitment to increase pasture sowings by 80% in the next 5 years, with fourteen producers in one group alone having committed to sow an additional 4893 ha of pasture in 2007–08 under the QMDC subsidy scheme. The success of the project was attributed to the partnership between QMDC and Landcare groups who set individual workshop targets with LeyGrain presenters, the interactive engagement processes within the workshops themselves, and the follow-up provided by the LeyGrain team for on-farm activities.

A Practitioner-Oriented Decision Support Process for Forestry Pest Management

The article discusses a new decision support process for forestry pest management. Over the past few years, DSS have been introduced for forestry pest management, providing forest growers with advice in areas such as selecting the most suitable pesticide and relevant treatment. Most of the initiatives process knowledge from various domains for providing support for specific decision making problems. However, very few studies have identified the requirements of developing a combined process model in which all relevant practitioners can contribute and share knowledge for effective decision making; such an approach would need to include the decision makers’ perspective along with other relevant attributes such as the problem context and relevant policies. We outline a decision support process for forestry pest management, based on the design science research paradigm, in which a focus group technique has application to acquire both expert and practical knowledge in order to construct the DSS solution.

Marker Assisted Breeding Support for Tropical Horticulture and Forestry in far north Queensland

Molecular marker development for tropical fruit and forestry species.

ACIAR Improving soil health in support of sustainable development in the Pacific

The proposed project focuses on developing research-based indicators that growers and extensionists can use to assess soil health status (including key chemical, physical and biological variables), as well as extension approaches to communicate soil health.

Technical support improved Best Management Practices in irrigated grains farming systems in the Fiztroy Basin Association priority catchments

Broadscale irrigation is a major land use in many of the priority neighbourhood catchments (45,218 hectares in Central Highlands and Dawson) and there is a requirement to provide technical support to sub-regional group field officers and landholders in these priority catchments. This technical support will assist field staff and land managers to identify and implement appropriate, sustainable technologies and management practices.

AQUAMAN: a web-based decision support system for irrigation scheduling in peanuts

Peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) is an economically important legume crop in irrigated production areas of northern Australia. Although the potential pod yield of the crop in these areas is about 8 t ha(-1), most growers generally obtain around 5 t ha(-1), partly due to poor irrigation management. Better information and tools that are easy to use, accurate, and cost-effective are therefore needed to help local peanut growers improve irrigation management. This paper introduces a new web-based decision support system called AQUAMAN that was developed to assist Australian peanut growers schedule irrigations. It simulates the timing and depth of future irrigations by combining procedures from the food and agriculture organization (FAO) guidelines for irrigation scheduling (FAO-56) with those of the agricultural production systems simulator (APSIM) modeling framework. Here, we present a description of AQUAMAN and results of a series of activities (i.e., extension activities, case studies, and a survey) that were conducted to assess its level of acceptance among Australian peanut growers, obtain feedback for future improvements, and evaluate its performance. Application of the tool for scheduling irrigations of commercial peanut farms since its release in 2004-2005 has shown good acceptance by local peanuts growers and potential for significantly improving yield. Limited comparison with the farmer practice of matching the pan evaporation demand during rain-free periods in 2006-2007 and 2008-2009 suggested that AQUAMAN enabled irrigation water savings of up to 50% and the realization of enhanced water and irrigation use efficiencies.

Estimates of genetic parameters for growth and wood properties in Eucalyptus pellita F. Muell. to support tree breeding in Vietnam

Key message Eucalyptus pellita demonstrated good growth and wood quality traits in this study, with young plantation grown timber being suitable for both solid and pulp wood products. All traits examined were under moderate levels of genetic control with little genotype by environment interaction when grown on two contrasting sites in Vietnam. Context Eucalyptus pellita currently has a significant role in reforestation in the tropics. Research to support expanded of use of this species is needed: particularly, research to better understand the genetic control of key traits will facilitate the development of genetically improved planting stock. Aims This study aimed to provide estimates of the heritability of diameter at breast height over bark, wood basic density, Kraft pulp yield, modulus of elasticity and microfibril angle, and the genetic correlations among these traits, and understand the importance of genotype by environment interactions in Vietnam. Methods Data for diameter and wood properties were collected from two 10-year-old, open-pollinated progeny trials of E. pellita in Vietnam that evaluated 104 families from six native range and three orchard sources. Wood properties were estimated from wood samples using near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy. Data were analysed using mixed linear models to estimate genetic parameters (heritability, proportion of variance between seed sources and genetic correlations). Results Variation among the nine sources was small compared to additive variance. Narrow-sense heritability and genetic correlation estimates indicated that simultaneous improvements in most traits could be achieved from selection among and within families as the genetic correlations among traits were either favourable or close to zero. Type B genetic correlations approached one for all traits suggesting that genotype by environment interactions were of little importance. These results support a breeding strategy utilizing a single breeding population advanced by selecting the best individuals across all seed sources. Conclusion Both growth and wood properties have been evaluated. Multi-trait selection for growth and wood property traits will lead to more productive populations of E. pellita both with improved productivity and improved timber and pulp properties.

Assessment of functional forms of crop yield loss models of invasive plant species applied in decision support tools and bioeconomic modelling

AbstractObjectives Decision support tools (DSTs) for invasive species management have had limited success in producing convincing results and meeting users' expectations. The problems could be linked to the functional form of model which represents the dynamic relationship between the invasive species and crop yield loss in the DSTs. The objectives of this study were: a) to compile and review the models tested on field experiments and applied to DSTs; and b) to do an empirical evaluation of some popular models and alternatives. Design and methods This study surveyed the literature and documented strengths and weaknesses of the functional forms of yield loss models. Some widely used models (linear, relative yield and hyperbolic models) and two potentially useful models (the double-scaled and density-scaled models) were evaluated for a wide range of weed densities, maximum potential yield loss and maximum yield loss per weed. Results Popular functional forms include hyperbolic, sigmoid, linear, quadratic and inverse models. Many basic models were modified to account for the effect of important factors (weather, tillage and growth stage of crop at weed emergence) influencing weed–crop interaction and to improve prediction accuracy. This limited their applicability for use in DSTs as they became less generalized in nature and often were applicable to a much narrower range of conditions than would be encountered in the use of DSTs. These factors' effects could be better accounted by using other techniques. Among the model empirically assessed, the linear model is a very simple model which appears to work well at sparse weed densities, but it produces unrealistic behaviour at high densities. The relative-yield model exhibits expected behaviour at high densities and high levels of maximum yield loss per weed but probably underestimates yield loss at low to intermediate densities. The hyperbolic model demonstrated reasonable behaviour at lower weed densities, but produced biologically unreasonable behaviour at low rates of loss per weed and high yield loss at the maximum weed density. The density-scaled model is not sensitive to the yield loss at maximum weed density in terms of the number of weeds that will produce a certain proportion of that maximum yield loss. The double-scaled model appeared to produce more robust estimates of the impact of weeds under a wide range of conditions. Conclusions Previously tested functional forms exhibit problems for use in DSTs for crop yield loss modelling. Of the models evaluated, the double-scaled model exhibits desirable qualitative behaviour under most circumstances.

Exploring the Potential Impacts of Climate Variability on Spring Wheat Yield with the APSIM Decision Support Tool

Assessing the impacts of climate variability on agricultural productivity at regional, national or global scale is essential for defining adaptation and mitigation strategies. We explore in this study the potential changes in spring wheat yields at Swift Current and Melfort, Canada, for different sowing windows under projected climate scenarios (i.e., the representative concentration pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). First, the APSIM model was calibrated and evaluated at the study sites using data from long term experimental field plots. Then, the impacts of change in sowing dates on final yield were assessed over the 2030-2099 period with a 1990-2009 baseline period of observed yield data, assuming that other crop management practices remained unchanged. Results showed that the performance of APSIM was quite satisfactory with an index of agreement of 0.80, R2 of 0.54, and mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of 529 kg/ha and 1023 kg/ha, respectively (MAE = 476 kg/ha and RMSE = 684 kg/ha in calibration phase). Under the projected climate conditions, a general trend in yield loss was observed regardless of the sowing window, with a range from -24 to -94 depending on the site and the RCP, and noticeable losses during the 2060s and beyond (increasing CO2 effects being excluded). Smallest yield losses obtained through earlier possible sowing date (i.e., mid-April) under the projected future climate suggested that this option might be explored for mitigating possible adverse impacts of climate variability. Our findings could therefore serve as a basis for using APSIM as a decision support tool for adaptation/mitigation options under potential climate variability within Western Canada.

Otolith morphology of four mackerel species (Scomberomorus spp.) in Australia: Species differentiation and prediction for fisheries monitoring and assessment

Four species of large mackerels (Scomberomorus spp.) co-occur in the waters off northern Australia and are important to fisheries in the region. State fisheries agencies monitor these species for fisheries assessment; however, data inaccuracies may exist due to difficulties with identification of these closely related species, particularly when specimens are incomplete from fish processing. This study examined the efficacy of using otolith morphometrics to differentiate and predict among the four mackerel species off northeastern Australia. Seven otolith measurements and five shape indices were recorded from 555 mackerel specimens. Multivariate modelling including linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and support vector machines, successfully differentiated among the four species based on otolith morphometrics. Cross validation determined a predictive accuracy of at least 96% for both models. An optimum predictive model for the four mackerel species was an LDA model that included fork length, feret length, feret width, perimeter, area, roundness, form factor and rectangularity as explanatory variables. This analysis may improve the accuracy of fisheries monitoring, the estimates based on this monitoring (i.e. mortality rate) and the overall management of mackerel species in Australia.