Mixture of time-dependent growth models with an application to blue swimmer crab length-frequency data

Understanding how aquatic species grow is fundamental in fisheries because stock assessment often relies on growth dependent statistical models. Length-frequency-based methods become important when more applicable data for growth model estimation are either not available or very expensive. In this article, we develop a new framework for growth estimation from length-frequency data using a generalized von Bertalanffy growth model (VBGM) framework that allows for time-dependent covariates to be incorporated. A finite mixture of normal distributions is used to model the length-frequency cohorts of each month with the means constrained to follow a VBGM. The variances of the finite mixture components are constrained to be a function of mean length, reducing the number of parameters and allowing for an estimate of the variance at any length. To optimize the likelihood, we use a minorization–maximization (MM) algorithm with a Nelder–Mead sub-step. This work was motivated by the decline in catches of the blue swimmer crab (BSC) (Portunus armatus) off the east coast of Queensland, Australia. We test the method with a simulation study and then apply it to the BSC fishery data.

Stock assessment of the Queensland-New South Wales tailor fishery (Pomatomus saltatrix)

Data on catch sizes, catch rates, length-frequency and age composition from the Australian east coast tailor fishery are analysed by three different population dynamic models: a surplus production model, an age-structured model, and a model in which the population is structured by both age and length. The population is found to be very heavily exploited, with its ability to reproduce dependent on the fishery’s incomplete selectivity of one-year-old fish. Estimates of recent harvest rates (proportion of fish available to the fishery that are actually caught in a single year) are over 80%. It is estimated that only 30–50% of one-year-old fish are available to the fishery. Results from the age-length-structured model indicate that both exploitable biomass (total mass of fish selected by the fishery) and egg production have fallen to about half the levels that prevailed in the 1970s, and about 40% of virgin levels. Two-year-old fish appear to have become smaller over the history of the fishery. This is assumed to be due to increased fishing pressure combined with non-selectivity of small one-year-old fish, whereby the one-year-old fish that survive fishing are small and grow into small two-year-old fish the following year. An alternative hypothesis is that the stock has undergone a genetic change towards smaller fish; the true explanation is unknown. The instantaneous natural mortality rate of tailor is hypothesised to be higher than previously thought, with values between 0.8 and 1.3 yr–1 consistent with the models. These values apply only to tailor up to about three years of age, and it is possible that a lower value applies to fish older than three. The analysis finds no evidence that fishing pressure has yet affected recruitment. If a recruitment downturn were to occur, however, under current management and fishing pressure there is a strong chance that the fishery would need a complete closure for several years to recover, and even then recovery would be uncertain. Therefore it is highly desirable to better protect the spawning stock. The major recommendations are • An increase in the minimum size limit from 30cm to 40cm in order to allow most one-year-old fish to spawn, and • An experiment on discard mortality to gauge the proportion of fish between 30cm and 40cm that are likely to survive being caught and released by recreational line fishers (the dominant component of the fishery, currently harvesting roughly 1000t p.a. versus about 200t p.a. from the commercial fishery).

Long-term variation of tropical rock lobster panulirus ornatus (decapoda, palinuridae) growth inTorres Strait, Australia

This analysis of all carapace length measurements collected between 1989 and 2009, during scientific surveys, describes the variation of tropical rock lobster, Panulirus ornatus, somatic growth in Torres Strait. Multiple models of carapace length frequency distributions were compared by maximum likelihood to determine which hypotheses were most supported by the data. The best model assumed sex and cohort-specific Von Bertalanffy's parameters. These estimates are consistent with results derived from tagging data collected in the 1980s and provide new information on parameters' uncertainty. In the past two decades, growth rates have fluctuated inter-annually without displaying any distinctive trend. Associated uncertainties are large, suggesting that sampling will need to be intensified in order to detect an effect of climate change.

Population structure of South African and Australian Pyrenophora teres isolates.

There are two recognized forms of the disease net blotch of barley: the net form caused by Pyrenophora teres f. teres (PTT) and the spot form caused by P. teres f. maculata (PTM). In this study, amplified fragment length polymorphism analysis was used to investigate the genetic diversity and population structure of 60 PTT and 64 PTM isolates collected across Australia (66 isolates) and in the south-western Cape of South Africa (58 isolates). For comparison, P. tritici-repentis, Exserohilum rostratum and Bipolaris sorokiniana samples were also included in the analyses. Both distance-and model-based cluster analyses separated the PTT and PTM isolates into two strongly divergent genetic groups. Significant variation was observed both among the South African and Australian populations of PTT and PTM and among sampling locations for the PTT samples. Results suggest that sexual reproduction between the two forms is unlikely and that reproduction within the PTT and PTM groups occurs mainly asexually.

Stout Whiting Fishery Summary : Commercial Quota Setting for 2017

This fishery assessment report describes the commercial stout whiting fishery operation along Australia’s east coast between Sandy Cape and the Queensland-New South Wales border. The fishery is identified by a T4 symbol. This study follows methods applied in (O'Neill & Leigh, 2016a) and extends the results of that study by using the latest data available up to end of March 2016. The fishery statistics reported herein are for fishing years 1991 to 2016. This study analysed stout whiting catch rates from both Queensland and New South Wales (NSW) for all vessels, areas and fishing gears. The 2016 catch rate index from Queensland and NSW waters was 0.86. This means that the 2016 catch rate index was 86% of the mean standardised catch rate. Results showed that there was a stable trend in catch rates from 2012 to 2016, as in the previous study (O'Neill & Leigh, 2016a), with the 2015 and 2014 catch rates 85% of the mean catch rate. The fish-length frequency and age-length-otolith data were translated using two models which showed: • Where patterns of fish age-abundance were estimated from the fish-length frequency and age-length data, there were slightly decreased estimated measures of fish survival at 38% for 2014, compared to fish survival estimates in 2013 at 40%. The 2014 and 2015 estimated age structure was dominated by 1+ and 2+ old fished, with a slightly higher frequency of age 2 - 3 fish for 2015. • Where only the age-length data were used, estimates showed that from 2011 to 2014 the survival index increased. The estimated survival index increased from 35% in 2013 to 64% in 2014, indicating stronger survival of fish as they recruited and aged. Together the stout whiting catch rate and survival indicators showed the recent fishery harvests were sustainable. Since 1997, T4 management (Stout Whiting Fishery) is centred on annual assessments of total allowable commercial catch (TACC). The TACC is assessed before the start of each fishing year using statistical assessment methodologies, namely evaluation of trends in fish catch rates and catch-at-age frequencies measured against management reference points. The TACC has been under-caught in many years. For setting the 2017 T4 stout whiting TACC, the calculations covered a range of settings to account for the variance in the data and provide options for quota change. The overall (averaged) results suggested: • The procedure where the quota was adjusted based on previous TACC setting in year 2016 gave a recommended TACC for 2017 of between 1100 and 1130 t. • The procedure that focussed directly on optimising the average harvest to match target reference points gave a recommended TACC for 2017 of between 860 and 890 t. Use of these estimates to set TACC will depend on management and industry aims for the fishery.

Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli Genotyping by High-Resolution Melting Analysis of a flaA Fragment.

The highly variable flagellin-encoding flaA gene has long been used for genotyping Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli. High-resolution melting (HRM) analysis is emerging as an efficient and robust method for discriminating DNA sequence variants. The objective of this study was to apply HRM analysis to flaA-based genotyping. The initial aim was to identify a suitable flaA fragment. It was found that the PCR primers commonly used to amplify the flaA short variable repeat (SVR) yielded a mixed PCR product unsuitable for HRM analysis. However, a PCR primer set composed of the upstream primer used to amplify the fragment used for flaA restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis and the downstream primer used for flaA SVR amplification generated a very pure PCR product, and this primer set was used for the remainder of the study. Eighty-seven C. jejuni and 15 C. coli isolates were analyzed by flaA HRM and also partial flaA sequencing. There were 47 flaA sequence variants, and all were resolved by HRM analysis. The isolates used had previously also been genotyped using single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), binary markers, CRISPR HRM, and flaA RFLP.flaA HRM analysis provided resolving power multiplicative to the SNPs, binary markers, and CRISPR HRM and largely concordant with the flaA RFLP. It was concluded that HRM analysis is a promising approach to genotyping based on highly variable genes.

Estimating the duration and cost of weed eradication programmes

Two prerequisites for realistically embarking upon an eradication programme are that cost-benefit analysis favours this strategy over other management options and that sufficient resources are available to carry the programme through to completion. These are not independent criteria, but it is our view that too little attention has been paid to estimating the investment required to complete weed eradication programmes. We deal with this problem by using a two-pronged approach: 1) developing a stochastic dynamic model that provides an estimation of programme duration; and 2) estimating the inputs required to delimit a weed incursion and to prevent weed reproduction over a sufficiently long period to allow extirpation of all infestations. The model is built upon relationships that capture the time-related detection of new infested areas, rates of progression of infestations from the active to the monitoring stage, rates of reversion of infestations from the monitoring to active stage, and the frequency distribution of time since last detection for all infestations. This approach is applied to the branched broomrape (Orobanche ramosa) eradication programme currently underway in South Australia. This programme commenced in 1999 and currently 7450 ha are known to be infested with the weed. To date none of the infestations have been eradicated. Given recent (2008) levels of investment and current eradication methods, model predictions are that it would take, on average, an additional 73 years to eradicate this weed at an average additional cost (NPV) of $AU67.9m. When the model was run for circumstances in 2003 and 2006, the average programme duration and total cost (NPV) were predicted to be 159 and 94 years, and $AU91.3m and $AU72.3m, respectively. The reduction in estimated programme length and cost may represent progress towards the eradication objective, although eradication of this species still remains a long term prospect.

Identification of diverse full-length endogenous betaretroviruses in megabats and microbats

Background: Betaretroviruses infect a wide range of species including primates, rodents, ruminants, and marsupials. They exist in both endogenous and exogenous forms and are implicated in animal diseases such as lung cancer in sheep, and in human disease, with members of the human endogenous retrovirus-K (HERV-K) group of endogenous betaretroviruses (βERVs) associated with human cancers and autoimmune diseases. To improve our understanding of betaretroviruses in an evolutionarily distinct host species, we characterized βERVs present in the genomes and transcriptomes of mega- and microbats, which are an important reservoir of emerging viruses.Results: A diverse range of full-length βERVs were discovered in mega- and microbat genomes and transcriptomes including the first identified intact endogenous retrovirus in a bat. Our analysis revealed that the genus Betaretrovirus can be divided into eight distinct sub-groups with evidence of cross-species transmission. Betaretroviruses are revealed to be a complex retrovirus group, within which one sub-group has evolved from complex to simple genomic organization through the acquisition of an env gene from the genus Gammaretrovirus. Molecular dating suggests that bats have contended with betaretroviral infections for over 30 million years.Conclusions: Our study reveals that a diverse range of betaretroviruses have circulated in bats for most of their evolutionary history, and cluster with extant betaretroviruses of divergent mammalian lineages suggesting that their distribution may be largely unrestricted by host species barriers. The presence of βERVs with the ability to transcribe active viral elements in a major animal reservoir for viral pathogens has potential implications for public health. © 2013 Hayward et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Rapid genome wide mapping of phosphine resistance loci by a simple regional averaging analysis in the red flour beetle, Tribolium castaneum

Background Next-generation sequencing technology is an important tool for the rapid, genome-wide identification of genetic variations. However, it is difficult to resolve the ‘signal’ of variations of interest and the ‘noise’ of stochastic sequencing and bioinformatic errors in the large datasets that are generated. We report a simple approach to identify regional linkage to a trait that requires only two pools of DNA to be sequenced from progeny of a defined genetic cross (i.e. bulk segregant analysis) at low coverage (<10×) and without parentage assignment of individual SNPs. The analysis relies on regional averaging of pooled SNP frequencies to rapidly scan polymorphisms across the genome for differential regional homozygosity, which is then displayed graphically. Results Progeny from defined genetic crosses of Tribolium castaneum (F4 and F19) segregating for the phosphine resistance trait were exposed to phosphine to select for the resistance trait while the remainders were left unexposed. Next generation sequencing was then carried out on the genomic DNA from each pool of selected and unselected insects from each generation. The reads were mapped against the annotated T. castaneum genome from NCBI (v3.0) and analysed for SNP variations. Since it is difficult to accurately call individual SNP frequencies when the depth of sequence coverage is low, variant frequencies were averaged across larger regions. Results from regional SNP frequency averaging identified two loci, tc_rph1 on chromosome 8 and tc_rph2 on chromosome 9, which together are responsible for high level resistance. Identification of the two loci was possible with only 5-7× average coverage of the genome per dataset. These loci were subsequently confirmed by direct SNP marker analysis and fine-scale mapping. Individually, homozygosity of tc_rph1 or tc_rph2 results in only weak resistance to phosphine (estimated at up to 1.5-2.5× and 3-5× respectively), whereas in combination they interact synergistically to provide a high-level resistance >200×. The tc_rph2 resistance allele resulted in a significant fitness cost relative to the wild type allele in unselected beetles over eighteen generations. Conclusion We have validated the technique of linkage mapping by low-coverage sequencing of progeny from a simple genetic cross. The approach relied on regional averaging of SNP frequencies and was used to successfully identify candidate gene loci for phosphine resistance in T. castaneum. This is a relatively simple and rapid approach to identifying genomic regions associated with traits in defined genetic crosses that does not require any specialised statistical analysis.