Risk management strategies using seasonal climate forecasting in irrigated cotton production: a tale of stochastic dominance.

Decision-making in agriculture is carried out in an uncertain environment with farmers often seeking information to reduce risk. As a result of the extreme variability of rainfall and stream-flows in north-eastern Australia, water supplies for irrigated agriculture are a limiting factor and a source of risk. The present study examined the use of seasonal climate forecasting (SCF) when calculating planting areas for irrigated cotton in the northern Murray Darling Basin. Results show that minimising risk by adjusting plant areas in response to SCF can lead to significant gains in gross margin returns. However, how farmers respond to SCF is dependent on several other factors including irrigators’ attitude towards risk.

Spectral and thermal sensing for nitrogen and water status in rainfed and irrigated wheat environments

Variable-rate technologies and site-specific crop nutrient management require real-time spatial information about the potential for response to in-season crop management interventions. Thermal and spectral properties of canopies can provide relevant information for non-destructive measurement of crop water and nitrogen stresses. In previous studies, foliage temperature was successfully estimated from canopy-scale (mixed foliage and soil) temperatures and the multispectral Canopy Chlorophyll Content Index (CCCI) was effective in measuring canopy-scale N status in rainfed wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) systems in Horsham, Victoria, Australia. In the present study, results showed that under irrigated wheat systems in Maricopa, Arizona, USA, the theoretical derivation of foliage temperature unmixing produced relationships similar to those in Horsham. Derivation of the CCCI led to an r2 relationship with chlorophyll a of 0.53 after Zadoks stage 43. This was later than the relationship (r2 = 0.68) developed for Horsham after Zadoks stage 33 but early enough to be used for potential mid-season N fertilizer recommendations. Additionally, ground-based hyperspectral data estimated plant N (g kg)1) in Horsham with an r2 = 0.86 but was confounded by water supply and N interactions. By combining canopy thermal and spectral properties, varying water and N status can potentially be identified eventually permitting targeted N applications to those parts of a field where N can be used most efficiently by the crop.

The effect of endophyte on the performance of irrigated perennial ryegrasses in subtropical Australia

The effect of fungal endophyte (Neotyphodium lolii) infection on the performance of perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne) growing under irrigation in a subtropical environment was investigated. Seed of 4 cultivars, infected with standard (common toxic or wild-type) endophyte or the novel endophyte AR1, or free of endophyte (Nil), was sown in pure swards, which were fertilised with 50 kg N/ha.month. Seasonal and total yield, persistence, and rust susceptibility were assessed over 3 years, along with details of the presence of endophyte and alkaloids in plant shoots. Endophyte occurrence in tillers in both the standard and AR1 treatments was above 95% for Bronsyn and Impact throughout and rose to that level in Samson by the end of the second year. Meridian AR1 only reached 93% while, in the standard treatment, the endophyte had mostly died before sowing. Nil Zendophyte treatments carried an average of ?0.6% infection throughout. Infection of the standard endophyte was associated with increased dry matter (DM) yields in all 3 years compared with no endophyte. AR1 also significantly increased yields in the second and third years. Over the full 3 years, standard and AR1 increased yields by 18% and 11%, respectively. Infection with both endophytes was associated with increased yields in all 4 seasons, the effects increasing in intensity over time. There was 27% better persistence in standard infected plants compared with Nil at the end of the first year, increasing to 198% by the end of the experiment, while for AR1 the improvements were 20 and 134%, respectively. The effect of endophyte on crown rust (Puccinia coronata) infection was inconsistent, with endophyte increasing rust damage on one occasion and reducing it on another. Cultivar differences in rust infection were greater than endophyte effects. Plants infected with the AR1 endophyte had no detectable ergovaline or lolitrem B in leaf, pseudostem, or dead tissue. In standard infected plants, ergovaline and lolitrem B were highest in pseudostem and considerably lower in leaf. Dead tissue had very low or no detectable ergovaline but high lolitrem B concentrations. Peramine concentration was high and at similar levels in leaf and pseudostem, but not detectable in dead material. Concentration was similar in both AR1 and standard infected plants. Endophyte presence appeared to have a similar effect in the subtropics as has been demonstrated in temperate areas, in terms of improving yields and persistence and increasing tolerance of plants to stress factors.

The performance of irrigated mixtures of tall fescue, ryegrass and white clover in subtropical Australia. 2. The effects on yield and botanical composition of managing for quality.

The effects on yield, botanical composition and persistence, of using a variable defoliation schedule as a means of optimising the quality of the tall fescue component of simple and complex temperate pasture mixtures in a subtropical environment was studied in a small plot cutting experiment at Gatton Research Station in south-east Queensland. A management schedule of 2-, 3- and 4-weekly defoliations in summer, autumn and spring and winter, respectively, was imposed on 5 temperate pasture mixtures: 2 simple mixtures including tall fescue (Festuca arundinacea) and white clover (Trifolium repens); 2 mixtures including perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne), tall fescue and white clover; and a complex mixture, which included perennial ryegrass, tall fescue, white, red (T. pratense) and Persian (T. resupinatum) clovers and chicory (Cichorium intybus). Yield from the variable cutting schedule was 9% less than with a standard 4-weekly defoliation. This loss resulted from reductions in both the clover component (13%) and cumulative grass yield (6%). There was no interaction between cutting schedule and sowing mixture, with simple and complex sowing mixtures reacting in a similar manner to both cutting schedules. The experiment also demonstrated that, in complex mixtures, the cutting schedules used failed to give balanced production from all sown components. This was especially true of the grass and white clover components of the complex mixture, as chicory and Persian clover components dominated the mixtures, particularly in the first year. Quality measurements (made only in the final summer) suggested that variable management had achieved a quality improvement with increases in yields of digestible crude protein (19%) and digestible dry matter (9%) of the total forage produced in early summer. The improvements in the yields of digestible crude protein and digestible dry matter of the tall fescue component in late summer were even greater (28 and 19%, respectively). While advantages at other times of the year were expected to be smaller, the data suggested that the small loss in total yield was likely to be offset by increases in digestibility of available forage for grazing stock, especially in the critical summer period.

The performance of irrigated mixtures of tall fescue, ryegrass and white clover in subtropical Australia. 1. The effects of sowing mixture combinations, nitrogen and oversowing on establishment, productivity, botanical composition and persistence.

In the subtropics of Australia, the ryegrass component of irrigated perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne) - white clover (Trifolium repens) pastures declines by approximately 40% in the summer following establishment, being replaced by summer-active C4 grasses. Tall fescue (Festuca arundinacea) is more persistent than perennial ryegrass and might resist this invasion, although tall fescue does not compete vigorously as a seedling. This series of experiments investigated the influence of ryegrass and tall fescue genotype, sowing time and sowing mixture as a means of improving tall fescue establishment and the productivity and persistence of tall fescue, ryegrass and white clover-based mixtures in a subtropical environment. Tall fescue frequency at the end of the establishment year decreased as the number of companion species sown in the mixture increased. Neither sowing mixture combinations nor sowing rates influenced overall pasture yield (of around 14 t/ha) in the establishment year but had a significant effect on botanical composition and component yields. Perennial ryegrass was less competitive than short-rotation ryegrass, increasing first-year yields of tall fescue by 40% in one experiment and by 10% in another but total yield was unaffected. The higher establishment-year yield (3.5 t/ha) allowed Dovey tall fescue to compete more successfully with the remaining pasture components than Vulcan (1.4 t/ha). Sowing 2 ryegrass cultivars in the mixture reduced tall fescue yields by 30% compared with a single ryegrass (1.6 t/ha), although tall fescue alone achieved higher yields (7.1 t/ha). Component sowing rate had little influence on composition or yield. Oversowing the ryegrass component into a 6-week-old sward of tall fescue and white clover improved tall fescue, white clover and overall yields in the establishment year by 83, 17 and 11%, respectively, but reduced ryegrass yields by 40%. The inclusion of red (T. pratense) and Persian (T. resupinatum) clovers and chicory (Cichorium intybus) increased first-year yields by 25% but suppressed perennial grass and clover components. Yields were generally maintained at around 12 t/ha/yr in the second and third years, with tall fescue becoming dominant in all 3 experiments. The lower tall fescue seeding rate used in the first experiment resulted in tall fescue dominance in the second year following establishment, whereas in Experiments 2 and 3 dominance occurred by the end of the first year. Invasion by the C4 grasses was relatively minor (<10%) even in the third year. As ryegrass plants died, tall fescue and, to a lesser extent, white clover increased as a proportion of the total sward. Treatment effects continued into the second, but rarely the third, year and mostly affected the yield of one of the components rather than total cumulative yield. Once tall fescue became dominant, it was difficult to re-introduce other pasture components, even following removal of foliage and moderate renovation. Severe renovation (reducing the tall fescue population by at least 30%) seems a possible option for redressing this situation.

Water use studies and implications for management of subtropical C4 turfgrasses in dryland and irrigated urban open space

A 2000-03 study to improve irrigation efficiency of grassed urban public areas in northern Australia found it would be difficult to grow most species in dry areas without supplementary watering. Sporoboulus virginicus and sand couch, Zoysia macrantha, were relatively drought-tolerant. Managers of sporting fields, parks and gardens could more than halve their current water use by irrigating over a long cycle, irrigating according to seasonal conditions and using grasses with low water use and sound soil management practices that encourage deep rooting. The use of effluent water provides irrigation and fertiliser cost savings and reduced nitrogen and phosphorus discharge to local waterways. Projected savings are $8000/ha/year in water costs for a typical sporting field.

A multi-field bio-economic model of irrigated grain-cotton farming systems.

We present a participatory modelling framework that integrates information from interviews and discussions with farmers and consultants, with dynamic bio-economic models to answer complex questions on the allocation of limited resources at the farm business level. Interviews and discussions with farmers were used to: describe the farm business; identify relevant research questions; identify potential solutions; and discuss and learn from the whole-farm simulations. The simulations are done using a whole-farm, multi-field configuration of APSIM (APSFarm). APSFarm results were validated against farmers' experience. Once the model was accepted by the participating farmers as a fair representation of their farm business, the model was used to explore changes in the tactical or strategic management of the farm and results were then discussed to identify feasible options for improvement. Here we describe the modelling framework and present an example of the application of integrative whole farm system tools to answer relevant questions from an irrigated farm business case study near Dalby (151.27E - 27.17S), Queensland, Australia. Results indicated that even though cotton crops generates more farm income per hectare a more diversified rotation with less cotton would be relatively more profitable, with no increase in risk, as a more cotton dominated traditional rotation. Results are discussed in terms of the benefits and constraints from developing and applying more integrative approaches to represent farm businesses and their management in participatory research projects with the aim of designing more profitable and sustainable irrigated farming systems.

Water-use efficiency and productivity trends in Australian irrigated cotton: a review

The aim of this review is to report changes in irrigated cotton water use from research projects and on-farm practice-change programs in Australia, in relation to both plant-based and irrigation engineering disciplines. At least 80% of the Australian cotton-growing area is irrigated using gravity surface-irrigation systems. This review found that, over 23 years, cotton crops utilise 6-7ML/ha of irrigation water, depending on the amount of seasonal rain received. The seasonal evapotranspiration of surface-irrigated crops averaged 729mm over this period. Over the past decade, water-use productivity by Australian cotton growers has improved by 40%. This has been achieved by both yield increases and more efficient water-management systems. The whole-farm irrigation efficiency index improved from 57% to 70%, and the crop water use index is >3kg/mm.ha, high by international standards. Yield increases over the last decade can be attributed to plant-breeding advances, the adoption of genetically modified varieties, and improved crop management. Also, there has been increased use of irrigation scheduling tools and furrow-irrigation system optimisation evaluations. This has reduced in-field deep-drainage losses. The largest loss component of the farm water balance on cotton farms is evaporation from on-farm water storages. Some farmers are changing to alternative systems such as centre pivots and lateral-move machines, and increasing numbers of these alternatives are expected. These systems can achieve considerable labour and water savings, but have significantly higher energy costs associated with water pumping and machine operation. The optimisation of interactions between water, soils, labour, carbon emissions and energy efficiency requires more research and on-farm evaluations. Standardisation of water-use efficiency measures and improved water measurement techniques for surface irrigation are important research outcomes to enable valid irrigation benchmarks to be established and compared. Water-use performance is highly variable between cotton farmers and farming fields and across regions. Therefore, site-specific measurement is important. The range in the presented datasets indicates potential for further improvement in water-use efficiency and productivity on Australian cotton farms.

Identifying risk-efficient strategies using stochastic frontier analysis and simulation: An application to irrigated cropping in Australia

In irrigated cropping, as with any other industry, profit and risk are inter-dependent. An increase in profit would normally coincide with an increase in risk, and this means that risk can be traded for profit. It is desirable to manage a farm so that it achieves the maximum possible profit for the desired level of risk. This paper identifies risk-efficient cropping strategies that allocate land and water between crop enterprises for a case study of an irrigated farm in Southern Queensland, Australia. This is achieved by applying stochastic frontier analysis to the output of a simulation experiment. The simulation experiment involved changes to the levels of business risk by systematically varying the crop sowing rules in a bioeconomic model of the case study farm. This model utilises the multi-field capability of the process based Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM) and is parameterised using data collected from interviews with a collaborating farmer. We found sowing rules that increased the farm area sown to cotton caused the greatest increase in risk-efficiency. Increasing maize area also improved risk-efficiency but to a lesser extent than cotton. Sowing rules that increased the areas sown to wheat reduced the risk-efficiency of the farm business. Sowing rules were identified that had the potential to improve the expected farm profit by ca. $50,000 Annually, without significantly increasing risk. The concept of the shadow price of risk is discussed and an expression is derived from the estimated frontier equation that quantifies the trade-off between profit and risk.

Stay-green alleles individually enhance grain yield in sorghum under drought by modifying canopy development and water uptake patterns

* Stay-green is an integrated drought adaptation trait characterized by a distinct green leaf phenotype during grain filling under terminal drought. We used sorghum (Sorghum bicolor), a repository of drought adaptation mechanisms, to elucidate the physiological and genetic mechanisms underpinning stay-green. * Near-isogenic sorghum lines (cv RTx7000) were characterized in a series of field and managed-environment trials (seven experiments and 14 environments) to determine the influence of four individual stay-green (Stg1–4) quantitative trait loci (QTLs) on canopy development, water use and grain yield under post-anthesis drought. * The Stg QTL decreased tillering and the size of upper leaves, which reduced canopy size at anthesis. This reduction in transpirational leaf area conserved soil water before anthesis for use during grain filling. Increased water uptake during grain filling of Stg near-isogenic lines (NILs) relative to RTx7000 resulted in higher post-anthesis biomass production, grain number and yield. Importantly, there was no consistent yield penalty associated with the Stg QTL in the irrigated control. * These results establish a link between the role of the Stg QTL in modifying canopy development and the subsequent impact on crop water use patterns and grain yield under terminal drought.

Agronomic benefits and risks associated with the irrigated peanut–maize production system under a changing climate in northern Australia

With the aim of increasing peanut production in Australia, the Australian peanut industry has recently considered growing peanuts in rotation with maize at Katherine in the Northern Territory—a location with a semi-arid tropical climate and surplus irrigation capacity. We used the well-validated APSIM model to examine potential agronomic benefits and long-term risks of this strategy under the current and warmer climates of the new region. Yield of the two crops, irrigation requirement, total soil organic carbon (SOC), nitrogen (N) losses and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were simulated. Sixteen climate stressors were used; these were generated by using global climate models ECHAM5, GFDL2.1, GFDL2.0 and MRIGCM232 with a median sensitivity under two Special Report of Emissions Scenarios over the 2030 and 2050 timeframes plus current climate (baseline) for Katherine. Effects were compared at three levels of irrigation and three levels of N fertiliser applied to maize grown in rotations of wet-season peanut and dry-season maize (WPDM), and wet-season maize and dry-season peanut (WMDP). The climate stressors projected average temperature increases of 1°C to 2.8°C in the dry (baseline 24.4°C) and wet (baseline 29.5°C) seasons for the 2030 and 2050 timeframes, respectively. Increased temperature caused a reduction in yield of both crops in both rotations. However, the overall yield advantage of WPDM increased from 41% to up to 53% compared with the industry-preferred sequence of WMDP under the worst climate projection. Increased temperature increased the irrigation requirement by up to 11% in WPDM, but caused a smaller reduction in total SOC accumulation and smaller increases in N losses and GHG emission compared with WMDP. We conclude that although increased temperature will reduce productivity and total SOC accumulation, and increase N losses and GHG emissions in Katherine or similar northern Australian environments, the WPDM sequence should be preferable over the industry-preferred sequence because of its overall yield and sustainability advantages in warmer climates. Any limitations of irrigation resulting from climate change could, however, limit these advantages.

Response of irrigated cotton to applied nitrogen

Like all high yielding farming systems nitrogen (N) is a key component to their productivity and profitability and Australian irrigated cotton growers are tending to apply more N than is required for the level of lint yield that is being achieved. This suggests either over application of N or inefficient systems limiting the response of cotton to N inputs. To investigate this four replicated trials were established in commercial fields during the 2014/15 season. The trials were aiming to measure the difference in response of irrigated cotton to the application of N under flood and overhead irrigation systems. The application treatments utilized eight upfront rates of applied N, ranging from 0 N kg/ha to a maximum of 410 kg N/ha, with three of the fours trials receiving a growerdetermined in-crop application of N in the irrigation water. The two flood irrigation systems had lower lint yields from similar levels of N input compared to one of the overhead irrigated sites; the result from the second overhead site was impacted by disease. This paper discusses the response of plant N uptake, lint yield and fertilizer N recovery to N application..