The intrinsic plasticity of farm businesses and their resilience to change. An Australian example.

This paper examines the idea that plasticity in farm management introduces resilience to change and allows farm businesses to perform when operating in highly variable environments. We also argue for the need to develop and apply more integrative assessments of farm performance that combine the use of modelling tools with deliberative processes involving farmers and researchers in a co-learning process, to more effectively identify and implement more productive and resilient farm businesses. In a plastic farming system, farm management is highly contingent on environmental conditions. In plastic farming systems farm managers constantly vary crops and inputs based on the availability of limited and variable resources (e.g. land, water, finances, labour, machinery, etc.), and signals from its operating environment (e.g. climate, markets), with the objective of maximising a number of, often competing, objectives (e.g. maximise profits, minimise risks, etc.). In contrast in more rigid farming systems farm management is more calendar driven and relatively fixed sequences of crops are regularly followed over time and across the farm. Here we describe the application of a whole farm simulation model to (i) compare, in silico, the sensitivity of two farming systems designs of contrasting levels of plasticity, operating in two contrasting environments, when exposed to a stressor in the form of climate change scenarios;(ii) investigate the presence of interactions and feedbacks at the field and farm levels capable of modifying the intensity and direction of the responses to climate signals; and (iii) discuss the need for the development and application of more integrative assessments in the analysis of impacts and adaptation options to climate change. In both environments, the more plastic farm management strategy had higher median profits and was less risky for the baseline and less intensive climate change scenarios (2030). However, for the more severe climate change scenarios (2070), the benefit of plastic strategies tended to disappear. These results suggest that, to a point, farming systems having higher levels of plasticity would enable farmers to more effectively respond to climate shifts, thus ensuring the economic viability of the farm business. Though, as the intensity of the stress increases (e.g. 2070 climate change scenario) more significant changes in the farming system might be required to adapt. We also found that in the case studies analysed here, most of the impacts from the climate change scenarios on farm profit and economic risk originated from important reductions in cropping intensity and changes in crop mix rather than from changes in the yields of individual crops. Changes in cropping intensity and crop mix were explained by the combination of reductions in the number of sowing opportunities around critical times in the cropping calendar, and to operational constraints at the whole farm level i.e. limited work capacity in an environment having fewer and more concentrated sowing opportunities. This indicates that indirect impacts from shifts in climate on farm operations can be more important than direct impacts from climate on the yield of individual crops. The results suggest that due to the complexity of farm businesses, impact assessments and opportunities for adaptation to climate change might also need to be pursued at higher integration levels than the crop or the field. We conclude that plasticity can be a desirable characteristic in farming systems operating in highly variable environments, and that integrated whole farm systems analyses of impacts and adaptation to climate change are required to identify important interactions between farm management decision rules, availability of resources, and farmer's preference.

Modelling environmental effects on phenology and canopy development of diverse sorghum genotypes

The ability to predict phenology and canopy development is critical in crop models used for simulating likely consequences of alternative crop management and cultivar choice strategies. Here we quantify and contrast the temperature and photoperiod responses for phenology and canopy development of a diverse range of elite Indian and Australian sorghum genotypes (hybrid and landrace). Detailed field experiments were undertaken in Australia and India using a range of genotypes, sowing dates, and photoperiod extension treatments. Measurements of timing of developmental stages and leaf appearance were taken. The generality of photo-thermal approaches to modelling phenological and canopy development was tested. Environmental and genotypic effects on rate of progression from emergence to floral initiation (E-FI) were explained well using a multiplicative model, which combined the intrinsic development rate (Ropt), with responses to temperature and photoperiod. Differences in Ropt and extent of the photoperiod response explained most genotypic effects. Average leaf initiation rate (LIR), leaf appearance rate and duration of the phase from anthesis to physiological maturity differed among genotypes. The association of total leaf number (TLN) with photoperiod found for all genotypes could not be fully explained by effects on development and LIRs. While a putative effect of photoperiod on LIR would explain the observations, other possible confounding factors, such as air-soil temperature differential and the nature of model structure were considered and discussed. This study found a generally robust predictive capacity of photo-thermal development models across diverse ranges of both genotypes and environments. Hence, they remain the most appropriate models for simulation analysis of genotype-by-management scenarios in environments varying broadly in temperature and photoperiod.

From inferential statistics to climate knowledge

Climate variability and change are risk factors for climate sensitive activities such as agriculture. Managing these risks requires "climate knowledge", i.e. a sound understanding of causes and consequences of climate variability and knowledge of potential management options that are suitable in light of the climatic risks posed. Often such information about prognostic variables (e.g. yield, rainfall, run-off) is provided in probabilistic terms (e.g. via cumulative distribution functions, CDF), whereby the quantitative assessments of these alternative management options is based on such CDFs. Sound statistical approaches are needed in order to assess whether difference between such CDFs are intrinsic features of systems dynamics or chance events (i.e. quantifying evidences against an appropriate null hypothesis). Statistical procedures that rely on such a hypothesis testing framework are referred to as "inferential statistics" in contrast to descriptive statistics (e.g. mean, median, variance of population samples, skill scores). Here we report on the extension of some of the existing inferential techniques that provides more relevant and adequate information for decision making under uncertainty.

Queensland Coastal Wetland Resources: the Northern Territory Border to Flinders River

Protection of coastal wetland environments is an important prerequisite to effective and sustainable fisheries management and conservation of habitats for the use of future generations. Mangroves, saltmarshes and seagrasses directly support local and offshore fisheries through the provision of food, shelter, breeding and nursery grounds. As such, these vegetated wetland environments along with sandbars, mudflats, rocky foreshores and reefs have significant economic value as well as their intrinsic aesthetic and ecological values. This report summarises the results of the mapping undertaken in the Gulf of Carpentaria Region from the Queensland/Northern Territory border eastwards to the western bank of the Flinders River (hereafter called the Gulf Study Area). The study was undertaken in order to: 1. document and map coastal wetlands of the Gulf Study Area; 2. document levels of existing disturbance to and protection of these wetlands; 3. examine existing recreational, indigenous and commercial fisheries of the region; 4. evaluate the conservation values of the areas investigated from the viewpoint of fisheries productivity and as habitat for important and/or threatened species for future FHA/Marine Protected Area (MPA) declaration. Dataset URL Link: Queensland Coastal Wetlands Resources Mapping data. [Dataset]

Queensland Coastal Wetland Resources: Sand Bay to Keppel Bay.

Protection of coastal wetland environments is an important prerequisite to effective and sustainable inshore fisheries management and conservation of habitats for use by future generations. Mangroves, saltmarshes, seagrasses and non vegetated habitats directly support local and regional inshore and offshore fisheries through the provision of food, shelter, breeding and nursery grounds. As such, these wetland environments have significant economic value as well as their intrinsic aesthetic and ecological values. This report summarises the results of the mapping undertaken in the Central Queensland Coast from Sand Bay to Keppel Bay (hereafter referred to as the Study Area). The study was undertaken in order to: 1. document and map the coastal wetland communities along the Queensland coastline from Sand Bay (20.93°S, 149.04°E) to Keppel Bay (23.65°S, 151.07°E); 2. document levels of existing disturbance to and protection of the wetlands; 3. examine existing recreational and commercial fisheries in the region; and 4. evaluate the conservation values of the areas investigated from the viewpoint of fisheries productivity and as habitat for important and/or threatened species. Dataset URL Link: Queensland Coastal Wetlands Resources Mapping data. [Dataset]

Development of an avocado rapid library tray system for Hass

The aim of the project is to develop a rapid ripening protocol/test which can be used as a reliable library tray system for Hass Avocados. Fruit will be taken from the end of the packing line to reflect both commercial handling quality and intrinsic fruit quality.

A hidden Markov model approach for determining vessel activity from vessel monitoring system data.

Many fisheries worldwide have adopted vessel monitoring systems (VMS) for compliance purposes. An added benefit of these systems is that they collect a large amount of data on vessel locations at very fine spatial and temporal scales. This data can provide a wealth of information for stock assessment, research, and management. However, since most VMS implementations record vessel location at set time intervals with no regard to vessel activity, some methodology is required to determine which data records correspond to fishing activity. This paper describes a probabilistic approach, based on hidden Markov models (HMMs), to determine vessel activity. A HMM provides a natural framework for the problem and, by definition, models the intrinsic temporal correlation of the data. The paper describes the general approach that was developed and presents an example of this approach applied to the Queensland trawl fishery off the coast of eastern Australia. Finally, a simulation experiment is presented that compares the misallocation rates of the HMM approach with other approaches.

More fertile florets and grains per spike can be achieved at higher temperature in wheat lines with high spike biomass and sugar content at booting

An understanding of processes regulating wheat floret and grain number at higher temperatures is required to better exploit genetic variation. In this study we tested the hypothesis that at higher temperatures, a reduction in floret fertility is associated with a decrease in soluble sugars and this response is exacerbated in genotypes low in water soluble carbohydrates (WSC). Four recombinant inbred lines contrasting for stem WSC were grown at 20/10 degrees C and 11 h photoperiod until terminal spikelet, and then continued in a factorial combination of 20/10 degrees C or 28/14 degrees C with 11 h or 16 h photoperiod until anthesis. Across environments, High WSC lines had more grains per spike associated with more florets per spike. The number of fertile florets was associated with spike biomass at booting and, by extension, with glucose amount, both higher in High WSC lines. At booting, High WSC lines had higher fixed C-13 and higher levels of expression of genes involved in photosynthesis and sucrose transport and lower in sucrose degradation compared with Low WSC lines. At higher temperature, the intrinsic rate of floret development rate before booting was slower in High WSC lines. Grain set declined with the intrinsic rate of floret development before booting, with an advantage for High WSC lines at 28/14 degrees C and 16 h. Genotypic and environmental action on floret fertility and grain set was summarised in a model.

How weed control and fertilisation influence tree physiological processes and growth at early establishment in an exotic F1 hybrid pine plantation of subtropical Australia

Purpose This study investigated how nitrogen (N) nutrition and key physiological processes varied under changed water and nitrogen competition resulting from different weed control and fertilisation treatments in a 2-year-old F1 hybrid (Pinus elliottii Engelm var. elliottii × P. caribaea var. hondurensis Barr. ex Golf.) plantation on a grey podzolic soil type, in Southeast Queensland. Materials and methods The study integrated a range of measures including growth variables (diameter at ground level (DGL), diameter at breast height (DBH) and height (H)), foliar variables (including foliar N concentration, foliar δ13C and δ15N) and physiological variables (including photosynthesis (An), stomatal conductance (gs), transpiration (E), intrinsic water use efficiency (WUEi) (A/gs) and xylem pressure potential (ΨXPP)) to better understand the mechanisms influencing growth under different weed control and fertilisation treatments. Five levels of weed control were applied: standard (routine), luxury, intermediate, mechanical and nil weed control, all with routine fertilisation plus an additional treatment, routine weed control and luxury fertilisation. Relative weed cover was assessed at 0.8, 1.1 and 1.6 years after plantation establishment to monitor the effectiveness of weed control treatments. Soil investigation included soil ammonium (NH4 +-N), nitrate (NO3 −-N), potentially mineralizable N (PMN), gravimetric soil moisture content (MC), hot water extractable organic carbon (HWETC), hot water extractable total N (HWETN), total C, total N, stable C isotope composition (δ13C), stable N isotope composition (δ15N), total P and extractable K. Results and discussion There were significant relationships between foliar N concentrations and relative weed cover and between tree growth and foliar N concentration or foliar δ15N, but initial site preparation practices also increased soil N transformations in the planting rows reducing the observable effects of weed control on foliar δ15N. A positive relationship between foliar N concentration and foliar δ13C or photosynthesis indicated that increased N availability to trees positively influenced non-stomatal limitations to photosynthesis. However, trees with increased foliar N concentrations and photosynthesis were negatively related to xylem pressure potential in the afternoons which enhanced stomatal limitations to photosynthesis and WUEi. Conclusions Luxury and intermediate weed control and luxury fertilisation positively influenced growth at early establishment by reducing the competition for water and N resources. This influenced fundamental key physiological processes such as the relationships between foliar N concentration, A n, E, gs and ΨXPP. Results also confirmed that time from cultivation is an important factor influencing the effectiveness of using foliar δ15N as an indicator of soil N transformations.

QTL analysis in multiple sorghum populations facilitates the dissection of the genetic and physiological control of tillering

Tillering in sorghum can be associated with either the carbon supply–demand (S/D) balance of the plant or an intrinsic propensity to tiller (PTT). Knowledge of the genetic control of tillering could assist breeders in selecting germplasm with tillering characteristics appropriate for their target environments. The aims of this study were to identify QTL for tillering and component traits associated with the S/D balance or PTT, to develop a framework model for the genetic control of tillering in sorghum. Four mapping populations were grown in a number of experiments in south east Queensland, Australia. The QTL analysis suggested that the contribution of traits associated with either the S/D balance or PTT to the genotypic differences in tillering differed among populations. Thirty-four tillering QTL were identified across the populations, of which 15 were novel to this study. Additionally, half of the tillering QTL co-located with QTL for component traits. A comparison of tillering QTL and candidate gene locations identified numerous coincident QTL and gene locations across populations, including the identification of common non-synonymous SNPs in the parental genotypes of two mapping populations in a sorghum homologue of MAX1, a gene involved in the control of tiller bud outgrowth through the production of strigolactones. Combined with a framework for crop physiological processes that underpin genotypic differences in tillering, the co-location of QTL for tillering and component traits and candidate genes allowed the development of a framework QTL model for the genetic control of tillering in sorghum.

Optimising initial population density, growth time and nitrogen nutrition for assessing resistance of wheat cultivars to root-lesion nematode (Pratylenchus thornei)

Pratylenchus thornei is a major pathogen of wheat in Australia. Two glasshouse experiments with four wheat cultivars that had different final populations (Pf) of P. thornei in the field were used to optimise conditions for assessing resistance. With different initial populations (Pi) ranging up to 5250 P. thornei/kg soil, Pf of P. thornei increased to 16 weeks after sowing, and then decreased at 20 weeks in some cultivar x Pi combinations. The population dynamics of P. thornei up to 16 weeks were best described by a modified exponential equation P f (t) = aP i e kt where P f (t) is the final population density at time t, P i is the initial population density, a is the proportion of P i that initiates population development, and k is the intrinsic rate of increase of the population. The cultivar GS50a had very low k values at Pi of 5250 and 1050 indicating its resistance, Suneca and Potam had high k values indicating susceptibility, whereas intolerant Gatcher had a low value at the higher Pi and a high value at the lower Pi. Nitrate fertiliser increased plant growth and Pf values of susceptible cultivars, but in unplanted soil it decreased Pf. Nematicide (aldicarb 5 mg/kg soil) killed P. thornei more effectively in planted than in unplanted soil and increased plant growth particularly in the presence of N fertiliser. In both experiments, the wheat cultivars Suneca and Potam were more susceptible than the cultivar GS50a reflecting field results. The method chosen to discriminate wheat cultivars was to assess Pf after growth for 16 weeks in soil with Pi ~1050–5250 P. thornei/kg soil and fertilised with 200 mg NO3–N/kg soil.

Developmental biology and prey preference of Diomus notescens Blackburn (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae): A predator of Aphis gossypii Glover (Hemiptera: Aphididae)

The minute two-spotted ladybeetle, Diomus notescens Blackburn is a common predator of aphids and other pests in Australian agricultural crops, however little is known about the biology of D. notescens. The aim of this study was to provide information on the life cycle of this predator and improve our understanding of its biological control potential, particularly against one of the major pests of cotton, Aphis gossypii Glover. In laboratory experiments, juvenile development, prey consumption, as well as adult lifespan and fecundity were studied. Results from this study revealed that D. notescens could successfully complete development on A. gossypii, which at 25 °C required 21 days and during this period they each consume 129 ± 5.2 aphids. At 25 °C adult lifespan was 77 ± 9.6 days, with a mean daily prey consumption of 28 ± 1.8 aphids and a mean daily fecundity of 8 ± 0.5 eggs. Net reproductive rate was estimated as 187 ± 25.1 females and the intrinsic rate of increase was estimated as 0.14. Juvenile development was recorded at four constant temperatures (15, 21, 26 and 27 °C) and using a linear model, the lower threshold for D. notescens development was estimated to be 10 ± 0.6 °C with 285 ± 4.7 degree days required to complete development. A prey choice experiment studying predation rates revealed a strong preference for A. gossypii nymphs compared to Bemisia tabaci Gennadius eggs.