3 resultados para Intolerance of uncertainty

em eResearch Archive - Queensland Department of Agriculture


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This study uses chlorophyll a fluorescence to examine the effect of environmentally relevant (1-4 h) exposures of thermal stress (35-45 [deg]C) on seagrass photosynthetic yield in seven tropical species of seagrasses. Acute response of each tropical seagrass species to thermal stress was characterised, and the capacity of each species to tolerate and recover from thermal stress was assessed. Two fundamental characteristics of heat stress were observed. The first effect was a decrease in photosynthetic yield (Fv / Fm) characterised by reductions in F and Fm'. The dramatic decline in Fv / Fm ratio, due to chronic inhibition of photosynthesis, indicates an intolerance of Halophila ovalis, Zostera capricorni and Syringodium isoetifolium to ecologically relevant exposures of thermal stress and structural alterations to the PhotoSystem II (PSII) reaction centres. The decline in Fm' represents heat-induced photoinhibition related to closure of PSII reaction centres and chloroplast dysfunction. The key finding was that Cymodocea rotundata, Cymodocea serrulata, Halodule uninervis and Thalassia hemprichii were more tolerant to thermal stress than H. ovalis, Z. capricorni and S. isoetifolium. After 3 days of 4 h temperature treatments ranging from 25 to 40 [deg]C, C. rotundata, C. serrulata and H. uninervis demonstrated a wide tolerance to temperature with no detrimental effect on Fv / Fm' qN or qP responses. These three species are restricted to subtropical and tropical waters and their tolerance to seawater temperatures up to 40 [deg]C is likely to be an adaptive response to high temperatures commonly occurring at low tides and peak solar irradiance. The results of temperature experiments suggest that the photosynthetic condition of all seagrass species tested are likely to suffer irreparable effects from short-term or episodic changes in seawater temperatures as high as 40-45 [deg]C. Acute stress responses of seagrasses to elevated seawater temperatures are consistent with observed reductions in above-ground biomass during a recent El Nino event.

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Wildlife harvesting has a long history in Australia, including obvious examples of overexploitation. Not surprisingly, there is scepticism that commercial harvesting can be undertaken sustainably. Kangaroo harvesting has been challenged regularly at Administrative Appeals Tribunals and elsewhere over the past three decades. Initially, the concern from conservation groups was sustainability of the harvest. This has been addressed through regular, direct monitoring that now spans > 30 years and a conservative harvest regime with a low risk of overharvest in the face of uncertainty. Opposition to the harvest now continues from animal rights groups whose concerns have shifted from overall harvest sustainability to side effects such as animal welfare, and changes to community structure, genetic composition and population age structure. Many of these concerns are speculative and difficult to address, requiring expensive data. One concern is that older females are the more successful breeders and teach their daughters optimal habitat and diet selection. The lack of older animals in a harvested population may reduce the fitness of the remaining individuals; implying population viability would also be compromised. This argument can be countered by the persistence of populations under harvesting without any obvious impairment to reproduction. Nevertheless, an interesting question is how age influences reproductive output. In this study, data collected from a number of red kangaroo populations across eastern Australia indicate that the breeding success of older females is up to 7-20% higher than that of younger females. This effect is smaller than that of body condition and the environment, which can increase breeding success by up to 30% and 60% respectively. Average age of mature females in a population may be reduced from 9 to 6 years old, resulting in a potential reduction in breeding success of 3-4%. This appears to be offset in harvested populations by improved condition of females from a reduction in kangaroo density. There is an important recommendation for management. The best insurance policy against overharvest and unwanted side effects is not research, which could be never-ending. Rather, it is a harvest strategy that includes safeguards against uncertainty such as harvest reserves, conservative quotas and regular monitoring. Research is still important in fine tuning that strategy and is most usefully incorporated as adaptive management where it can address the key questions on how populations respond to harvesting.

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Given the limited resources available for weed management, a strategic approach is required to give the best bang for your buck. The current study incorporates: (1) a model ensemble approach to identify areas of uncertainty and commonality regarding a species invasive potential, (2) current distribution of the invaded species, and (3) connectivity of systems to identify target regions and focus efforts for more effective management. Uncertainty in the prediction of suitable habitat for H. amplexicaulis (study species) in Australia was addressed in an ensemble-forecasting approach to compare distributional scenarios from four models (CLIMATCH; CLIMEX; boosted regression trees [BRT]; maximum entropy [Maxent]). Models were built using subsets of occurrence and environmental data. Catchment risk was determined through incorporating habitat suitability, the current abundance and distribution of H. amplexicaulis, and catchment connectivity. Our results indicate geographic differences between predictions of different approaches. Despite these differences a number of catchments in northern, central, and southern Australia were identified as high risk of invasion or further spread by all models suggesting they should be given priority for the management of H. amplexicaulis. The study also highlighted the utility of ensemble approaches in indentifying areas of uncertainty and commonality regarding the species invasive potential.