Estimating the duration and cost of weed eradication programmes

Two prerequisites for realistically embarking upon an eradication programme are that cost-benefit analysis favours this strategy over other management options and that sufficient resources are available to carry the programme through to completion. These are not independent criteria, but it is our view that too little attention has been paid to estimating the investment required to complete weed eradication programmes. We deal with this problem by using a two-pronged approach: 1) developing a stochastic dynamic model that provides an estimation of programme duration; and 2) estimating the inputs required to delimit a weed incursion and to prevent weed reproduction over a sufficiently long period to allow extirpation of all infestations. The model is built upon relationships that capture the time-related detection of new infested areas, rates of progression of infestations from the active to the monitoring stage, rates of reversion of infestations from the monitoring to active stage, and the frequency distribution of time since last detection for all infestations. This approach is applied to the branched broomrape (Orobanche ramosa) eradication programme currently underway in South Australia. This programme commenced in 1999 and currently 7450 ha are known to be infested with the weed. To date none of the infestations have been eradicated. Given recent (2008) levels of investment and current eradication methods, model predictions are that it would take, on average, an additional 73 years to eradicate this weed at an average additional cost (NPV) of $AU67.9m. When the model was run for circumstances in 2003 and 2006, the average programme duration and total cost (NPV) were predicted to be 159 and 94 years, and $AU91.3m and $AU72.3m, respectively. The reduction in estimated programme length and cost may represent progress towards the eradication objective, although eradication of this species still remains a long term prospect.

Evaluating the performance of weed containment programmes

Aim: To develop approaches to the evaluation of programmes whose strategic objectives are to halt or slow weed spread. Location: Australia. Methods: Key aspects in the evaluation of weed containment programmes are considered. These include the relevance of models that predict the effects of management intervention on spread, the detection of spread, evidence for containment failure and metrics for absolute or partial containment. Case studies documenting either near-absolute (Orobanche ramosa L., branched broomrape) or partial (Parthenium hysterophorus (L.) King and Robinson, parthenium) containment are presented. Results: While useful for informing containment strategies, predictive models cannot be employed in containment programme evaluation owing to the highly stochastic nature of realized weed spread. The quality of observations is critical to the timely detection of weed spread. Effectiveness of surveillance and monitoring activities will be improved by utilizing information on habitat suitability and identification of sites from which spread could most compromise containment. Proof of containment failure may be difficult to obtain. The default option of assuming that a new detection represents containment failure could lead to an underestimate of containment success, the magnitude of which will depend on how often this assumption is made. Main conclusions: Evaluation of weed containment programmes will be relatively straightforward if containment is either absolute or near-absolute and may be based on total containment area and direct measures of containment failure, for example, levels of dispersal, establishment and reproduction beyond (but proximal to) the containment line. Where containment is only partial, other measures of containment effectiveness will be required. These may include changes in the rates of detection of new infestations following the institution of interventions designed to reduce dispersal, the degree of compliance with such interventions, and the effectiveness of tactics intended to reduce fecundity or other demographic drivers of spread. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Utilizing the assassin bug, Pristhesancus plagipennis (Hemiptera: Reduviidae), as a biological control agent within an integrated pest management programme for Helicoverpa spp. (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) and Creontiades spp. (Hemiptera: Miridae) in cotton

Helicoverpa spp. and mirids, Creontiades spp., have been difficult to control biologically in cotton due to their unpredictable temporal abundance combined with a cropping environment often made hostile by frequent usage of broad spectrum insecticides. To address this problem, a range of new generation insecticides registered for use in cotton were tested for compatibility with the assassin bug, Pristhesancus plagipennis (Walker), a potential biological control agent for Helicoverpa spp. and Creontiades spp. Indoxacarb, pyriproxifen, buprofezin, spinosad and fipronil were found to be of low to moderate toxicity on P. plagipennis whilst emamectin benzoate, abamectin, diafenthiuron, imidacloprid and omethaote were moderate to highly toxic. Inundative releases of P. plagipennis integrated with insecticides identified as being of low toxicity were then tested and compared with treatments of P. plagipennis and the compatible insecticides used alone, conventionally sprayed usage practice and an untreated control during two field experiments in cotton. The biological control provided by P. plagipennis nymphs when combined with compatible insecticides provided significant (P<0.001) reductions in Helicoverpa and Creontiades spp. on cotton and provided equivalent yields to conventionally sprayed cotton with half of the synthetic insecticide input. Despite this, the utilization of P. plagipennis in cotton as part of an integrated pest management programme remains unlikely due to high inundative release costs relative to other control technologies such as insecticides and transgenic (Bt) cotton varieties.

A novel breeding programme for improved growth in barramundi Lates calcarifer (Bloch) using foundation stock from progeny-tested parents

Rapid genetic gains for growth in barramundi ( Lates calcarifer) appear achievable by starting a breeding programme using foundation stock from progeny tested broodstock. The potential gains of this novel breeding design were investigated using biologically feasible scenarios tested with computer simulation models. The design involves the production of a large number of full-sib families using artificial mating which are compared in common growout conditions. The estimated breeding values of their paternal parents are calculated using a binomial probit analysis to assess their suitability as foundation broodstock. The programme can theoretically yield faster rates of genetic gain compared to other breeding programmes for aquaculture species. Assuming a heritability of 0.25 for growth, foundation broodstock evaluated in two years had breeding values for faster growth ranging from 21% to 51% depending on the genetic diversity of stock under evaluation. As a comparison it will take between nine and twenty-two years to identify broodstock with similar breeding values in a contemporary barramundi breeding programme.