Risk management strategies using seasonal climate forecasting in irrigated cotton production: a tale of stochastic dominance.

Decision-making in agriculture is carried out in an uncertain environment with farmers often seeking information to reduce risk. As a result of the extreme variability of rainfall and stream-flows in north-eastern Australia, water supplies for irrigated agriculture are a limiting factor and a source of risk. The present study examined the use of seasonal climate forecasting (SCF) when calculating planting areas for irrigated cotton in the northern Murray Darling Basin. Results show that minimising risk by adjusting plant areas in response to SCF can lead to significant gains in gross margin returns. However, how farmers respond to SCF is dependent on several other factors including irrigators’ attitude towards risk.

The reliability of supply of feed grains in the northern region

Reliability of supply of feed grain has become a high priority issue for industry in the northern region. Expansion by major intensive livestock and industrial users of grain, combined with high inter-annual variability in seasonal conditions, has generated concern in the industry about reliability of supply. This paper reports on a modelling study undertaken to analyse the reliability of supply of feed grain in the northern region. Feed grain demand was calculated for major industries (cattle feedlots, pigs, poultry, dairy) based on their current size and rate of grain usage. Current demand was estimated to be 2.8Mt. With the development of new industrial users (ethanol) and by projecting the current growth rate of the various intensive livestock industries, it was estimated that demand would grow to 3.6Mt in three years time. Feed grain supply was estimated using shire scale yield prediction models for wheat and sorghum that had been calibrated against recent ABS production data. Other crops that contribute to a lesser extent to the total feed grain pool (barley, maize) were included by considering their production relative to the major winter and summer grains, with estimates based on available production records. This modelling approach allowed simulation of a 101-year time series of yield that showed the extent of the impact of inter-annual climate variability on yield levels. Production estimates were developed from this yield time series by including planted crop area. Area planted data were obtained from ABS and ABARE records. Total production amounts were adjusted to allow for any export and end uses that were not feed grain (flour, malt etc). The median feed grain supply for an average area planted was about 3.1Mt, but this varied greatly from year to year depending on seasonal conditions and area planted. These estimates indicated that supply would not meet current demand in about 30% of years if a median area crop were planted. Two thirds of the years with a supply shortfall were El Nino years. This proportion of years was halved (i.e. 15%) if the area planted increased to that associated with the best 10% of years. Should demand grow as projected in this study, there would be few years where it could be met if a median crop area was planted. With area planted similar to the best 10% of years, there would still be a shortfall in nearly 50% of all years (and 80% of El Nino years). The implications of these results on supply/demand and risk management and investment in research and development are briefly discussed.

Grower group case study on new farming practices in the Herbert region, Australia

Growers working together have proven to be a successful method for improving the utilization of farm resources and accelerating the adoption of the Sugar Yield Decline Joint Venture principles (SYDJV). The Pinnacle Precision Farming Group was formed in 2004 with the aim to bring together the ideas, knowledge and resources of growers in the Herbert region. Along with their common interest in controlled traffic, minimal tillage and crop rotations, the grower group utilize a farm machinery contractor to provide some of their major farming operations. This paper provides an insight into the changes made by the Pinnacle Precision Farming Group and their journey to adopt the new farming system practices. This paper also details the changes made by the group machinery contractor and a comparison of the old and new farming systems used by a group member. A focus point of the document is the impact of the new farming system on the economic, social and environmental components of the farming business. Analysis of the new farming system with a legume crop rotation revealed an increase in the farm gross margin by AU$22 024 and, in addition, a reduction in tractor operation time by 38% across the whole farm. This represents a return on marginal capital of 14.68 times the original capital outlay required by the group member. Using the new farming system without a legume crop will still improve the group members whole of farm gross margin by AU$6 839 and reduce tractor operation time by 43% across the whole farm. The Pinnacle Precision Farming group recognize the need to continually improve their farming businesses and believe that the new farming system principles are critical for the long term viability of the industry. [U$1 = AU$1.19].

Economic analyses of options for weedy Sporobolus grass management

Weedy Sporobolus grasses have low palatability for livestock, with infestations reducing land condition and pastoral productivity. Control and containment options are available, but the cost of weed control is high relative to the extra return from livestock, thus, limiting private investment. This paper outlines a process for analysing the economic consequences of alternative management options for weedy Sporobolus grasses. This process is applicable to other weeds and other pastoral degradation or development issues. Using a case study property, three scenarios were developed. Each scenario compared two alternative management options and was analysed using discounted cash flow analysis. Two of the scenarios were based on infested properties and one scenario was based on a currently uninfested property but highly likely to become infested without active containment measures preventing weed seed transport and seedling establishment. The analysis highlighted why particular weedy Sporobolus grass management options may not be financially feasible for the landholder with the infestation. However, at the regional scale, the management options may be highly worthwhile due to a reduction in weed seed movement and new weed invasions. Therefore, to encourage investment by landholders in weedy Sporobolus grass management the investment of public money on behalf of landholders with non-infested properties should be considered.

A survey of management and economic impact of weeds in dryland cotton cropping systems of subtropical Australia

In dryland cotton cropping systems, the main weeds and effectiveness of management practices were identified, and the economic impact of weeds was estimated using information collected in a postal and a field survey of Southern Queensland and northern New South Wales. Forty-eight completed questionnaires were returned, and 32 paddocks were monitored in early and late summer for weed species and density. The main problem weeds were bladder ketmia (Hibiscus trionum), common sowthistle (Sonchus oleraceus), barnyard grasses (Echinochloa spp.), liverseed grass (Urochloa panicoides) and black bindweed (Fallopia convolvulus), but the relative importance of these differed with crops, fallows and crop rotations. The weed flora was diverse with 54 genera identified in the field survey. Control of weed growth in rotational crops and fallows depended largely on herbicides, particularly glyphosate in fallow and atrazine in sorghum, although effective control was not consistently achieved. Weed control in dryland cotton involved numerous combinations of selective herbicides, several non-selective herbicides, inter-row cultivation and some manual chipping. Despite this, residual weeds were found at 38-59% of initial densities in about 3-quarters of the survey paddocks. The on-farm financial costs of weeds ranged from $148 to 224/ha.year depending on the rotation, resulting in an estimated annual economic cost of $19.6 million. The approach of managing weed populations across the whole cropping system needs wider adoption to reduce the weed pressure in dryland cotton and the economic impact of weeds in the long term. Strategies that optimise herbicide performance and minimise return of weed seed to the soil are needed. Data from the surveys provide direction for research to improve weed management in this cropping system. The economic framework provides a valuable measure of evaluating likely future returns from technologies or weed management improvements.

Validating economic and environmental sustainability of a short-term summer forage legume in dryland wheat cropping systems in south-west Queensland.

The present study set out to test the hypothesis through field and simulation studies that the incorporation of short-term summer legumes, particularly annual legume lablab (Lablab purpureus cv. Highworth), in a fallow-wheat cropping system will improve the overall economic and environmental benefits in south-west Queensland. Replicated, large plot experiments were established at five commercial properties by using their machineries, and two smaller plot experiments were established at two intensively researched sites (Roma and St George). A detailed study on various other biennial and perennial summer forage legumes in rotation with wheat and influenced by phosphorus (P) supply (10 and 40 kg P/ha) was also carried out at the two research sites. The other legumes were lucerne (Medicago sativa), butterfly pea (Clitoria ternatea) and burgundy bean (Macroptilium bracteatum). After legumes, spring wheat (Triticum aestivum) was sown into the legume stubble. The annual lablab produced the highest forage yield, whereas germination, establishment and production of other biennial and perennial legumes were poor, particularly in the red soil at St George. At the commercial sites, only lablab-wheat rotations were experimented, with an increased supply of P in subsurface soil (20 kg P/ha). The lablab grown at the commercial sites yielded between 3 and 6 t/ha forage yield over 2-3 month periods, whereas the following wheat crop with no applied fertiliser yielded between 0.5 to 2.5 t/ha. The wheat following lablab yielded 30% less, on average, than the wheat in a fallow plot, and the profitability of wheat following lablab was slightly higher than that of the wheat following fallow because of greater costs associated with fallow management. The profitability of the lablab-wheat phase was determined after accounting for the input costs and additional costs associated with the management of fallow and in-crop herbicide applications for a fallow-wheat system. The economic and environmental benefits of forage lablab and wheat cropping were also assessed through simulations over a long-term climatic pattern by using economic (PreCAPS) and biophysical (Agricultural Production Systems Simulation, APSIM) decision support models. Analysis of the long-term rainfall pattern (70% in summer and 30% in winter) and simulation studies indicated that ~50% time a wheat crop would not be planted or would fail to produce a profitable crop (grain yield less than 1 t/ha) because of less and unreliable rainfall in winter. Whereas forage lablab in summer would produce a profitable crop, with a forage yield of more than 3 t/ha, ~90% times. Only 14 wheat crops (of 26 growing seasons, i.e. 54%) were profitable, compared with 22 forage lablab (of 25 seasons, i.e. 90%). An opportunistic double-cropping of lablab in summer and wheat in winter is also viable and profitable in 50% of the years. Simulation studies also indicated that an opportunistic lablab-wheat cropping can reduce the potential runoff+drainage by more than 40% in the Roma region, leading to improved economic and environmental benefits.

Poor adoption of ley-pastures in south-west Queensland: biophysical, economic and social constraints.

The present review identifies various constraints relating to poor adoption of ley-pastures in south-west Queensland, and suggests changes in research, development and extension efforts for improved adoption. The constraints include biophysical, economic and social constraints. In terms of biophysical constraints, first, shallower soil profiles with subsoil constraints (salt and sodicity), unpredictable rainfall, drier conditions with higher soil temperature and evaporative demand in summer, and frost and subzero temperature in winter, frequently result in a failure of established, or establishing, pastures. Second, there are limited options for legumes in a ley-pasture, with the legumes currently being mostly winter-active legumes such as lucerne and medics. Winter-active legumes are ineffective in improving soil conditions in a region with summer-dominant rainfall. Third, most grain growers are reluctant to include grasses in their ley-pasture mix, which can be uneconomical for various reasons, including nitrogen immobilisation, carryover of cereal diseases and depressed yields of the following cereal crops. Fourth, a severe depletion of soil water following perennial ley-pastures (grass + legumes or lucerne) can reduce the yields of subsequent crops for several seasons, and the practice of longer fallows to increase soil water storage may be uneconomical and damaging to the environment. Economic assessments of integrating medium- to long-term ley-pastures into cropping regions are generally less attractive because of reduced capital flow, increased capital investment, economic loss associated with establishment and termination phases of ley-pastures, and lost opportunities for cropping in a favourable season. Income from livestock on ley-pastures and soil productivity gains to subsequent crops in rotation may not be comparable to cropping when grain prices are high. However, the economic benefits of ley-pastures may be underestimated, because of unaccounted environmental benefits such as enhanced water use, and reduced soil erosion from summer-dominant rainfall, and therefore, this requires further investigation. In terms of social constraints, the risk of poor and unreliable establishment and persistence, uncertainties in economic and environmental benefits, the complicated process of changing from crop to ley-pastures and vice versa, and the additional labour and management requirements of livestock, present growers socially unattractive and complex decision-making processes for considering adoption of an existing medium- to long-term ley-pasture technology. It is essential that research, development and extension efforts should consider that new ley-pasture options, such as incorporation of a short-term summer forage legume, need to be less risky in establishment, productive in a region with prevailing biophysical constraints, economically viable, less complex and highly flexible in the change-over processes, and socially attractive to growers for adoption in south-west Queensland.

Pest-damage relationships for Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) on soybean (Glycine max) and dry bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) during pod-fill.

The response of soybean (Glycine max) and dry bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) to feeding by Helicoverpa armigera during the pod-fill stage was studied in irrigated field cages over three seasons to determine the relationship between larval density and yield loss, and to develop economic injury levels. H. armigera intensity was calculated in Helicoverpa injury equivalent (HIE) units, where 1 HIE was the consumption of one larva from the start of the infestation period to pupation. In the dry bean experiment, yield loss occurred at a rate 6.00 ± 1.29 g/HIE while the rates of loss in the three soybean experiments were 4.39 ± 0.96 g/HIE, 3.70 ± 1.21 g/HIE and 2.12 ± 0.71 g/HIE. These three slopes were not statistically different (P > 0.05) and the pooled estimate of the rate of yield loss was 3.21 ± 0.55 g/HIE. The first soybean experiment also showed a split-line form of damage curve with a rate of yield loss of 26.27 ± 2.92 g/HIE beyond 8.0 HIE and a rapid decline to zero yield. In dry bean, H. armigera feeding reduced total and undamaged pod numbers by 4.10 ± 1.18 pods/HIE and 12.88 ± 1.57 pods/HIE respectively, while undamaged seed numbers were reduced by 35.64 ± 7.25 seeds/HIE. In soybean, total pod numbers were not affected by H. armigera infestation (out to 8.23 HIE in Experiment 1) but seed numbers (in Experiments 1 and 2) and the number of seeds/pod (in all experiments) were adversely affected. Seed size increased with increases in H. armigera density in two of the three soybean experiments, indicating plant compensatory responses to H. armigera feeding. Analysis of canopy pod profiles indicated that loss of pods occurred from the top of the plant downwards, but with an increase in pod numbers close to the ground at higher pest densities as the plant attempted to compensate for damage. Based on these results, the economic injury levels for H. armigera on dry bean and soybean are approximately 0.74 HIE and 2.31 HIE/m2, respectively (0.67 and 2.1 HIE/row-m for 91 cm rows).

Pest-damage relationships for Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) on vegetative soybean.

The response of vegetative soybean (Glycine max) to Helicoverpa armigera feeding was studied in irrigated field cages over three years in eastern Australia to determine the relationship between larval density and yield loss, and to develop economic injury levels. Rather than using artificial defoliation techniques, plants were infested with either eggs or larvae of H. armigera, and larvae allowed to feed until death or pupation. Larvae were counted and sized regularly and infestation intensity was calculated in Helicoverpa injury equivalent (HIE) units, where 1 HIE was the consumption of one larva from the start of the infestation period to pupation. In the two experiments where yield loss occurred, the upper threshold for zero yield loss was 7.51 ± 0.21 HIEs and 6.43 ± 1.08 HIEs respectively. In the third experiment, infestation intensity was lower and no loss of seed yield was detected up to 7.0 HIEs. The rate of yield loss/HIE beyond the zero yield loss threshold varied between Experiments 1 and 2 (-9.44 ± 0.80 g and -23.17 ± 3.18 g, respectively). H. armigera infestation also affected plant height and various yield components (including pod and seed numbers and seeds/pod) but did not affect seed size in any experiment. Leaf area loss of plants averaged 841 and 1025 cm2/larva in the two experiments compared to 214 and 302 cm2/larva for cohort larvae feeding on detached leaves at the same time, making clear that artificial defoliation techniques are unsuitable for determining H. armigera economic injury levels on vegetative soybean. Analysis of canopy leaf area and pod profiles indicated that leaf and pod loss occurred from the top of the plant downwards. However, there was an increase in pod numbers closer to the ground at higher pest densities as the plant attempted to compensate for damage. Defoliation at the damage threshold was 18.6 and 28.0% in Experiments 1 and 2, indicating that yield loss from H. armigera feeding occurred at much lower levels of defoliation than previously indicated by artificial defoliation studies. Based on these results, the economic injury level for H. armigera on vegetative soybean is approximately 7.3 HIEs/row-metre in 91 cm rows or 8.0 HIEs/m2.

Increased profitability through product diversification and improved sugar quality.

The proposed simplified Integrated Sugar Production Process (ISPP) using membrane technology would allow the sugar industry to produce new product streams and higher quality mill sugar with increased sugar extraction efficiency. Membrane filtration technology has proven to be a technically sound process to increase sugar quality. However commercial viability has been uncertain partly because the benefits to crystallisation and sugar quality have not outweighed the increased processing cost. This simplified ISPP produces additional value-added liquid streams to make the membrane fractionation process more financially viable and improve the profitability of sugar manufacture. An experimental study used pilot scale membrane fractionation of clarified mill juice confirmed the technical feasibility of separating inorganic salt and antioxidant rich fractions from cane juice. The paper presents details on the compositions of the liquid streams along with their potential uses, values and challenges in getting these products out to market.

The use of temperate species in the Australian subtropics.

Temperate species and tropical crop silage are the basis for forage production for the dairy industry in the Australian subtropics. Irrigation is the key resource needed for production, with little survival of temperate species under rain-grown conditions except for lucerne. Annual ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum), fertilised with either inorganic nitrogen or grown with clovers, is the main cool season forage for the dairy industry. It is sown into fully prepared seedbeds, oversown into tropical grasses, especially kikuyu (Pennisetum clandestinum) or sown after mulching. There has been a continual improvement in the performance of annual and hybrid ryegrass cultivars over the last 25 years. In small plot, cutting experiments, yields of annual ryegrass typically range from 15 to 21 t DM/ha, with equivalent on-farm yields of 7 to 14 t DM/ha of utilised material. Rust (Puccinia coronata) remains the major concern although resistance is more stable than in oats. There have also been major improvements in the performance of perennial ryegrass (L. perenne) cultivars although their persistence under grazing is insufficient to make them a reliable forage source for the subtropics. On the other hand, tall fescue (Festuca arundinacea) and prairie grass (Bromus willdenowii) cultivars perform well under cutting and grazing, although farmer resistance to the use of tall fescue is strong. White clover (Trifolium repens) is a reliable and persistent performer although disease usually reduces its performance in the third year after sowing. Persian (Shaftal) annual clover (T. resupinatum) gives good winter production but the performance of berseem clover (T. alexandrinum) is less reliable and the sub clovers (T. subterraneum) are generally not suited to clay soils of neutral to alkaline pH. Lucerne (Medicago sativa), either as a pure stand or in mixtures, is a high producing legume under both irrigation and natural rainfall. Understanding the importance of leaf and crown diseases, and the development of resistant cultivars, have been the reasons for its reliability. Insects on temperate species are not as serious a problem in the subtropics as in New Zealand (NZ). Fungal and viral diseases, on the other hand, cause many problems and forage performance would benefit from more research into resistance.

Preliminary investigation into development of forage budget application and device

Forage budgeting, land condition monitoring and maintaining ground cover residuals are critical management practices for the long term sustainability of the northern grazing industry. The aim of this project is to do a preliminary investigation into industry need, feasibility and willingness to adopt a simple to use hand-held hardware device and compatible, integrated software applications that can be used in the paddock by producers, to assist in land condition monitoring and forage budgeting for better Grazing Land Management and to assist with compliance.

Internet based spatial data delivery and reporting system for cotton industry

Development of an internet based spatial data delivery and reporting system for the Australian Cotton Industry.

Farm Program Management - Phase II

Jointly manage The Farm Program within the Cotton Catchment Communities CRC.