Using simulation techniques to investigate methods to determine resistance of helminths to anthelmintic treatment

The widespread and increasing resistance of internal parasites to anthelmintic control is a serious problem for the Australian sheep and wool industry. As part of control programmes, laboratories use the Faecal Egg Count Reduction Test (FECRT) to determine resistance to anthelmintics. It is important to have confidence in the measure of resistance, not only for the producer planning a drenching programme but also for companies investigating the efficacy of their products. The determination of resistance and corresponding confidence limits as given in anthelmintic efficacy guidelines of the Standing Committee on Agriculture (SCA) is based on a number of assumptions. This study evaluated the appropriateness of these assumptions for typical data and compared the effectiveness of the standard FECRT procedure with the effectiveness of alternative procedures. Several sets of historical experimental data from sheep and goats were analysed to determine that a negative binomial distribution was a more appropriate distribution to describe pre-treatment helminth egg counts in faeces than a normal distribution. Simulated egg counts for control animals were generated stochastically from negative binomial distributions and those for treated animals from negative binomial and binomial distributions. Three methods for determining resistance when percent reduction is based on arithmetic means were applied. The first was that advocated in the SCA guidelines, the second similar to the first but basing the variance estimates on negative binomial distributions, and the third using Wadley’s method with the distribution of the response variate assumed negative binomial and a logit link transformation. These were also compared with a fourth method recommended by the International Co-operation on Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Registration of Veterinary Medicinal Products (VICH) programme, in which percent reduction is based on the geometric means. A wide selection of parameters was investigated and for each set 1000 simulations run. Percent reduction and confidence limits were then calculated for the methods, together with the number of times in each set of 1000 simulations the theoretical percent reduction fell within the estimated confidence limits and the number of times resistance would have been said to occur. These simulations provide the basis for setting conditions under which the methods could be recommended. The authors show that given the distribution of helminth egg counts found in Queensland flocks, the method based on arithmetic not geometric means should be used and suggest that resistance be redefined as occurring when the upper level of percent reduction is less than 95%. At least ten animals per group are required in most circumstances, though even 20 may be insufficient where effectiveness of the product is close to the cut off point for defining resistance.

A comparison of stocking methods for beef production in northern Australia: pasture and soil surface condition responses

Historical stocking methods of continuous, season-long grazing of pastures with little account of growing conditions have caused some degradation within grazed landscapes in northern Australia. Alternative stocking methods have been implemented to address this degradation and raise the productivity and profitability of the principal livestock, cattle. Because information comparing stocking methods is limited, an evaluation was undertaken to quantify the effects of stocking methods on pastures, soils and grazing capacity. The approach was to monitor existing stocking methods on nine commercial beef properties in north and south Queensland. Environments included native and exotic pastures and eucalypt (lighter soil) and brigalow (heavier soil) land types. Breeding and growing cattle were grazed under each method. The owners/managers, formally trained in pasture and grazing management, made all management decisions affecting the study sites. Three stocking methods were compared: continuous (with rest), extensive rotation and intensive rotation (commonly referred to as 'cell grazing'). There were two or three stocking methods examined on each property: in total 21 methods (seven continuous, six extensive rotations and eight intensive rotations) were monitored over 74 paddocks, between 2006 and 2009. Pasture and soil surface measurements were made in the autumns of 2006, 2007 and 2009, while the paddock grazing was analysed from property records for the period from 2006 to 2009. The first 2 years had drought conditions (rainfall average 3.4 decile) but were followed by 2 years of above-average rainfall. There were no consistent differences between stocking methods across all sites over the 4 years for herbage mass, plant species composition, total and litter cover, or landscape function analysis (LFA) indices. There were large responses to rainfall in the last 2 years with mean herbage mass in the autumn increasing from 1970 kg DM ha(-1) in 2006-07 to 3830 kg DM ha(-1) in 2009. Over the same period, ground and litter cover and LFA indices increased. Across all sites and 4 years, mean grazing capacity was similar for the three stocking methods. There were, however, significant differences in grazing capacity between stocking methods at four sites but these differences were not consistent between stocking methods or sites. Both the continuous and intensive rotation methods supported the highest average annual grazing capacity at different sites. The results suggest that cattle producers can obtain similar ecological responses and carry similar numbers of livestock under any of the three stocking methods.

The effect of row configuration on yield reliability in grain sorghum: II. Modelling the effects of row configuration

In recent years many sorghum producers in the more marginal (<600 mm annual rainfall) cropping areas of Qld and northern NSW have utilised skip row configurations in an attempt to improve yield reliability and reduce sorghum production risk. But will this work in the long run? What are the trade-offs between productivity and risk of crop failure? This paper describes a modelling and simulation approach to study the long-term effects of skip row configurations. Detailed measurements of light interception and water extraction from sorghum crops grown in solid, single and double skip row configurations were collected from three on-farm participatory research trials established in southern Qld and northern NSW. These measurements resulted in changes to the model that accounted for the elliptical water uptake pattern below the crop row and reduced total light interception associated with the leaf area reduction of the skip configuration. Following validation of the model, long-term simulation runs using historical weather data were used to determine the value of skip row sorghum production as a means of maintaining yield reliability in the dryland cropping regions of southern Qld and northern NSW.

A Comparison of Methods for Describing Irregular Animal Growth and Testing for Treatment Effects

In many designed experiments with animals liveweight is recorded several times during the trial. Such data are commonly referred to as repeated measures data. An aim of such experiments is generally to compare the growth patterns for the applied treatments. This paper discusses some of the methods of analysing repeated measures data and illustrates the use of cubic smoothing splines to describe irregular cattle growth data. Animal production for a consuming world : proceedings of 9th Congress of the Asian-Australasian Association of Animal Production Societies [AAAP] and 23rd Biennial Conference of the Australian Society of Animal Production [ASAP] and 17th Annual Symposium of the University of Sydney, Dairy Research Foundation, [DRF]. 2-7 July 2000, Sydney, Australia.

Investigation and application of methods for enumerating heterotrophs and Escherichia coli in the air within piggery sheds

Aims: To investigate methods for the recovery of airborne bacteria within pig sheds and to then use the appropriate methods to determine the levels of heterotrophs and Escherichia coli in the air within sheds. Methods and Results: AGI-30 impingers and a six-stage Andersen multi-stage sampler (AMS) were used for the collection of aerosols. Betaine and catalase were added to impinger collection fluid and the agar plates used in the AMS. Suitable media for enumerating E. coli with the Andersen sampler were also evaluated. The addition of betaine and catalase gave no marked increase in the recovery of heterotrophs or E. coli. No marked differences were found in the media used for enumeration of E. coli. The levels of heterotrophs and E. coli in three piggeries, during normal pig activities, were 2Æ2 · 105 and 21 CFU m)3 respectively. Conclusions: The failure of the additives to improve the recovery of either heterotrophs or E. coli suggests that these organisms are not stressed in the piggery environment. The levels of heterotrophs in the air inside the three Queensland piggeries investigated are consistent with those previously reported in other studies. Flushing with ponded effluent had no marked or consistent effect on the heterotroph or E. coli levels. Significance and Impact of the Study: Our work suggests that levels of airborne heterotrophs and E. coli inside pig sheds have no strong link with effluent flushing. It would seem unlikely that any single management activity within a pig shed has a dominant influence on levels of airborne heterotrophs and E. coli

Inferential, non-parametric statistics to assess quality of probabilistic forecast systems

Many statistical forecast systems are available to interested users. In order to be useful for decision-making, these systems must be based on evidence of underlying mechanisms. Once causal connections between the mechanism and their statistical manifestation have been firmly established, the forecasts must also provide some quantitative evidence of `quality’. However, the quality of statistical climate forecast systems (forecast quality) is an ill-defined and frequently misunderstood property. Often, providers and users of such forecast systems are unclear about what ‘quality’ entails and how to measure it, leading to confusion and misinformation. Here we present a generic framework to quantify aspects of forecast quality using an inferential approach to calculate nominal significance levels (p-values) that can be obtained either by directly applying non-parametric statistical tests such as Kruskal-Wallis (KW) or Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) or by using Monte-Carlo methods (in the case of forecast skill scores). Once converted to p-values, these forecast quality measures provide a means to objectively evaluate and compare temporal and spatial patterns of forecast quality across datasets and forecast systems. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of providing p-values rather than adopting some arbitrarily chosen significance levels such as p < 0.05 or p < 0.01, which is still common practice. This is illustrated by applying non-parametric tests (such as KW and KS) and skill scoring methods (LEPS and RPSS) to the 5-phase Southern Oscillation Index classification system using historical rainfall data from Australia, The Republic of South Africa and India. The selection of quality measures is solely based on their common use and does not constitute endorsement. We found that non-parametric statistical tests can be adequate proxies for skill measures such as LEPS or RPSS. The framework can be implemented anywhere, regardless of dataset, forecast system or quality measure. Eventually such inferential evidence should be complimented by descriptive statistical methods in order to fully assist in operational risk management.

Comparison of sampling sites and detection methods for Haemophilus parasuis

Objective To improve the isolation rate and identification procedures for Haemophilus parasuis from pig tissues. Design Thirteen sampling sites and up to three methods were used to confirm the presence of H. parasuis in pigs after experimental challenge. Procedure Colostrum-deprived, naturally farrowed pigs were challenged intratracheally with H parasuis serovar 12 or 4. Samples taken during necropsy were either inoculated onto culture plates, processed directly for PCR or enriched prior to being processed for PCR. The recovery of H parasuis from different sampling sites and using different sampling methods was compared for each serovar. Results H parasuis was recovered from several sample sites for all serovar 12 challenged pigs, while the trachea was the only positive site for all pigs following serovar 4 challenge. The method of solid medium culture of swabs, and confirmation of the identity of cultured bacteria by PCR, resulted in 38% and 14% more positive results on a site basis for serovars 12 and 4, retrospectively, than direct PCR on the swabs. This difference was significant in the serovar 12 challenge. Conclusion Conventional culture proved to be more effective in detecting H parasuis than direct PCR or PCR on enrichment broths. For subacute (serovar 4) infections, the most successful sites for culture or direct PCR were pleural fluid, peritoneal fibrin and fluid, lung and pericardial fluid. For acute (serovar 12) infections, the best sites were lung, heart blood, affected joints and brain. The methodologies and key sampling sites identified in this study will enable improved isolation of H parasuis and aid the diagnosis of Glässer's disease.

A comparison of mark-recapture distance-sampling methods applied to aerial surveys of eastern grey kangaroos

Aerial surveys of kangaroos (Macropus spp.) in Queensland are used to make economically important judgements on the levels of viable commercial harvest. Previous analysis methods for aerial kangaroo surveys have used both mark-recapture methodologies and conventional distance-sampling analyses. Conventional distance sampling has the disadvantage that detection is assumed to be perfect on the transect line, while mark-recapture methods are notoriously sensitive to problems with unmodelled heterogeneity in capture probabilities. We introduce three methodologies for combining together mark-recapture and distance-sampling data, aimed at exploiting the strengths of both methodologies and overcoming the weaknesses. Of these methods, two are based on the assumption of full independence between observers in the mark-recapture component, and this appears to introduce more bias in density estimation than it resolves through allowing uncertain trackline detection. Both of these methods give lower density estimates than conventional distance sampling, indicating a clear failure of the independence assumption. The third method, termed point independence, appears to perform very well, giving credible density estimates and good properties in terms of goodness-of-fit and percentage coefficient of variation. Estimated densities of eastern grey kangaroos range from 21 to 36 individuals km-2, with estimated coefficients of variation between 11% and 14% and estimated trackline detection probabilities primarily between 0.7 and 0.9.

Comparison of nitrogen fertilization methods and rates for subsurface drip irrigated corn in the semi-arid Great Plains

In semi-arid areas such as western Nebraska, interest in subsurface drip irrigation (SDI) for corn is increasing due to restricted irrigation allocations. However, crop response quantification to nitrogen (N) applications with SDI and the environmental benefits of multiple in-season (IS) SDI N applications instead of a single early-season (ES) surface application are lacking. The study was conducted in 2004, 2005, and 2006 at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln West Central Research and Extension Center in North Platte, Nebraska, comparing two N application methods (IS and ES) and three N rates (128, 186, and 278 kg N ha(-1)) using a randomized complete block design with four replications. No grain yield or biomass response was observed in 2004. In 2005 and 2006, corn grain yield and biomass production increased with increasing N rates, and the IS treatment increased grain yield, total N uptake, and gross return after N application costs (GRN) compared to the ES treatment. Chlorophyll meter readings taken at the R3 corn growth stage in 2006 showed that less N was supplied to the plant with ES compared to the IS treatment. At the end of the study, soil NO3-N masses in the 0.9 to 1.8 m depth were greater under the IS treatment compared to the ES treatment. Results suggested that greater losses of NO3-N below the root zone under the ES treatment may have had a negative effect on corn production. Under SDI systems, fertigating a recommended N rate at various corn growth stages can increase yields, GRN, and reduce NO3-N leaching in soils compared to concentrated early-season applications.

Annual forecasting of the Australian macadamia crop - integrating tree census data with statistical climate-adjustment models

To facilitate marketing and export, the Australian macadamia industry requires accurate crop forecasts. Each year, two levels of crop predictions are produced for this industry. The first is an overall longer-term forecast based on tree census data of growers in the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS). This data set currently accounts for around 70% of total production, and is supplemented by our best estimates of non-AMS orchards. Given these total tree numbers, average yields per tree are needed to complete the long-term forecasts. Yields from regional variety trials were initially used, but were found to be consistently higher than the average yields that growers were obtaining. Hence, a statistical model was developed using growers' historical yields, also taken from the AMS database. This model accounted for the effects of tree age, variety, year, region and tree spacing, and explained 65% of the total variation in the yield per tree data. The second level of crop prediction is an annual climate adjustment of these overall long-term estimates, taking into account the expected effects on production of the previous year's climate. This adjustment is based on relative historical yields, measured as the percentage deviance between expected and actual production. The dominant climatic variables are observed temperature, evaporation, solar radiation and modelled water stress. Initially, a number of alternate statistical models showed good agreement within the historical data, with jack-knife cross-validation R2 values of 96% or better. However, forecasts varied quite widely between these alternate models. Exploratory multivariate analyses and nearest-neighbour methods were used to investigate these differences. For 2001-2003, the overall forecasts were in the right direction (when compared with the long-term expected values), but were over-estimates. In 2004 the forecast was well under the observed production, and in 2005 the revised models produced a forecast within 5.1% of the actual production. Over the first five years of forecasting, the absolute deviance for the climate-adjustment models averaged 10.1%, just outside the targeted objective of 10%.

Hardness Methods for Testing Maize Kernels

Maize is a highly important crop to many countries around the world, through the sale of the maize crop to domestic processors and subsequent production of maize products and also provides a staple food to subsistance farms in undeveloped countries. In many countries, there have been long-term research efforts to develop a suitable hardness method that could assist the maize industry in improving efficiency in processing as well as possibly providing a quality specification for maize growers, which could attract a premium. This paper focuses specifically on hardness and reviews a number of methodologies as well as important biochemical aspects of maize that contribute to maize hardness used internationally. Numerous foods are produced from maize, and hardness has been described as having an impact on food quality. However, the basis of hardness and measurement of hardness are very general and would apply to any use of maize from any country. From the published literature, it would appear that one of the simpler methods used to measure hardness is a grinding step followed by a sieving step, using multiple sieve sizes. This would allow the range in hardness within a sample as well as average particle size and/or coarse/fine ratio to be calculated. Any of these parameters could easily be used as reference values for the development of near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy calibrations. The development of precise NIR calibrations will provide an excellent tool for breeders, handlers, and processors to deliver specific cultivars in the case of growers and bulk loads in the case of handlers, thereby ensuring the most efficient use of maize by domestic and international processors. This paper also considers previous research describing the biochemical aspects of maize that have been related to maize hardness. Both starch and protein affect hardness, with most research focusing on the storage proteins (zeins). Both the content and composition of the zein fractions affect hardness. Genotypes and growing environment influence the final protein and starch content and. to a lesser extent, composition. However, hardness is a highly heritable trait and, hence, when a desirable level of hardness is finally agreed upon, the breeders will quickly be able to produce material with the hardness levels required by the industry.

An improved technique for estimating short-term survival of released line-caught fish, and an application comparing barotrauma-relief methods in red emperor (Lutjanus sebae Cuvier 1816).

Promotion of better procedures for releasing undersize fish, advocacy of catch-and-release angling, and changing minimum legal sizes are increasingly being used as tools for sustainable management of fish stocks. However without knowing the proportion of released fish that survive, the conservation value of any of these measures is uncertain. We developed a floating vertical enclosure to estimate short-term survival of released line-caught tropical and subtropical reef-associated species, and used it to compare the effectiveness of two barotrauma-relief procedures (venting and shotline releasing) on red emperor (Lutjanus sebae). Barotrauma signs varied with capture depth, but not with the size of the fish. Fish from the greatest depths (40-52 m) exhibited extreme signs less frequently than did those from intermediate depths (30-40 m), possibly as a result of swim bladder gas being vented externally through a rupture in the body wall. All but two fish survived the experiment, and as neither release technique significantly improved short-term survival of the red emperor over non-treatment we see little benefit in promoting either venting or shotline releasing for this comparatively resilient species. Floating vertical enclosures can improve short-term post-release mortality estimates as they overcome many problems encountered when constraining fish in submerged cages.

Controlled pollination methods for creating Corymbia hybrids.

Inter-specific Corymbia hybrids are of increasing interest to plantation forestry, yet there is little knowledge of the most suitable controlled pollination methods for this genus. Inter-specific crosses were made between C. torelliana [CT(maternal parent)] and C. citriodora subsp. variegata (CCV), C. henryi (CH) and C. citriodora subsp. citriodora (CCC) using conventional pollination, one-stop pollination (OSP) and artificially-induced protogyny on yellow buds (AIP Y) pollination methods. Additional treatments included AIP on green buds (AIP G) and the use of exclusion bags for the OSP and AIP methods. Inter-specific hybrids (CT x CCV, CT x CH and CT x CCC) were successfully created using all three pollination methods. The AIP Y treatment provided the highest seed yields and achieved time savings of >41% over the conventional and OSP methods, resulting in up to five-fold increases in operator productivity. However, the AIP Y treatment also had the highest C. torelliana contamination levels (9.3–13.2%). The use of exclusion bags with the AIP method had minimal effect on contamination rates, indicating a high proportion of selfpollen contamination. Contamination rates varied between maternal parents, suggesting variation in selfcompatibility for C. torelliana individuals. AIP using semi-ripe green buds was not effective at reducing selfing and had low operator productivity. The AIP method is suitable for use in a large-scale hybrid breeding program for C. torelliana. When self-pollination effects are managed, it could greatly reduce the costs associated with the production of seed of elite family crosses for commercial forestry deployment.

Current and emerging screening methods to identify post-head-emergence frost adaptation in wheat and barley

Cereal crops can suffer substantial damage if frosts occur at heading. Identification of post-head-emergence frost (PHEF) resistance in cereals poses a number of unique and difficult challenges. Many decades of research have failed to identify genotypes with PHEF resistance that could offer economically significant benefit to growers. Research and breeding gains have been limited by the available screening systems. Using traditional frost screening systems, genotypes that escape frost injury in trials due to spatial temperature differences and/or small differences in phenology can be misidentified as resistant. We believe that by improving techniques to minimize frost escapes, such ofalse-positive' results can be confidently identified and eliminated. Artificial freezing chambers or manipulated natural frost treatments offer many potential advantages but are not yet at the stage where they can be reliably used for frost screening in breeding programmes. Here we describe the development of a novel photoperiod gradient method (PGM) that facilitates screening of genotypes of different phenology under natural field frosts at matched developmental stages. By identifying frost escapes and increasing the efficiency of field screening, the PGM ensures that research effort can be focused on finding genotypes with improved PHEF resistance. To maximize the likelihood of identifying PHEF resistance, we propose that the PGM form part of an integrated strategy to (i) source germplasm;(ii) facilitate high throughput screening; and (iii) permit detailed validation. PGM may also be useful in other studies where either a range of developmental stages and/or synchronized development are desired.

Declining trends in annual catch rates of the tiger shark (Galeocerdo cuvier) in Queensland, Australia

Suitable long term species-specific catch rate and biological data are seldom available for large shark species, particularly where historical commercial logbook reporting has been poor. However, shark control programs can provide suitable data from gear that consistently fishes nearshore waters all year round. We present an analysis of the distribution of 4757 . Galeocerdo cuvier caught in surface nets and on drumlines across 9 of the 10 locations of the Queensland Shark Control Program (QSCP) between 1993 and 2010. Standardised catch rates showed a significant decline (p<. 0.0001) in southern Queensland locations for both gear types, which contrasts with studies at other locations where increases in tiger shark catch per unit effort (CPUE) have been reported. Significant temporal declines in the average size of tiger sharks occurred at four of the nine locations analysed (p<. 0.05), which may be indicative of fishing reducing abundance in these areas. Given the long term nature of shark control programs along the Australian east coast, effects on local abundance should have been evident many years ago, which suggests that factors other than the effects of shark control programs have also contributed to the decline. While reductions in catch rate are consistent with a decline in tiger shark abundance, this interpretation should be made with caution, as the inter-annual CPUE varies considerably at most locations. Nevertheless, the overall downward trend, particularly in southern Queensland, indicates that current fishing pressures on the species may be unsustainable. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.