Agronomy looking forward, thinking broadly.

Global trends in human population and agriculture dictate that future calls made on the resources (physical, human, financial) and systems involved in producing food will be increasingly more demanding and complex. Both plant breeding and improved agronomy lift the potential yield of crops, a key component in progressing farm yield, so society can reasonably expect both agronomy as a science and agronomists as practitioners to contribute to the successful delivery of necessary change. By reflecting on current trends in agricultural production (diversification, intensification, integration, industrialisation, automation) and deconstructing a futuristic scenario of attempting agricultural production on Mars, it seems the skills agronomists will require involve not only the mandatory elements of their discipline but also additional skills that enable engagement with, even leadership of, teams who integrate (in sum or part) engineering, (agri-)business, economics and operational management, and build the social capital required to create and maintain a diverse array of enhanced and new ethical production systems and achieve increasing efficiencies within them.

Allelic variation at a single gene increases food value in a drought-tolerant staple cereal

The production of adequate agricultural outputs to support the growing human population places great demands on agriculture, especially in light of ever-greater restrictions on input resources. Sorghum is a drought-adapted cereal capable of reliable production where other cereals fail, and thus represents a good candidate to address food security as agricultural inputs of water and arable land grow scarce. A long-standing issue with sorghum grain is that it has an inherently lower digestibility. Here we show that a low-frequency allele type in the starch metabolic gene, pullulanase, is associated with increased digestibility, regardless of genotypic background. We also provide evidence that the beneficial allele type is not associated with deleterious pleiotropic effects in the modern field environment. We argue that increasing the digestibility of an adapted crop is a viable way forward towards addressing food security while maximizing water and land-use efficiency.

Bactrocera frauenfeldi (Diptera: Tephritidae), an invasive fruit fly in Australia that may have reached the extent of its spread due to environmental variables

Bactrocera frauenfeldi (Schiner), the ‘mango fruit fly’, is a horticultural pest originating from the Papua New Guinea region. It was first detected in Australia on Cape York Peninsula in north Queensland in 1974 and had spread to Cairns by 1994 and Townsville by 1997. Bactrocera frauenfeldi has not been recorded further south since then despite its invasive potential, an absence of any controls and an abundance of hosts in southern areas. Analysis of cue-lure trapping data from 1997 to 2012 in relation to environmental variables shows that the distribution of B. frauenfeldi in Queensland correlates to locations with a minimum temperature for the coldest month >13.2°C, annual temperature range <19.3°C, mean temperature of the driest quarter >20.2°C, precipitation of the wettest month >268 mm, precipitation of the wettest quarter >697 mm, temperature seasonality <30.9°C (i.e. lower temperature variability) and areas with higher human population per square kilometre. Annual temperature range was the most important variable in predicting this species' distribution. Predictive distribution maps based on an uncorrelated subset of these variables reasonably reflected the current distribution of this species in northern Australia and predicted other areas in the world potentially at risk from invasion by this species. This analysis shows that the distribution of B. frauenfeldi in Australia is correlated to certain environmental variables that have most likely limited this species' spread southward in Queensland. This is of importance to Australian horticulture in demonstrating that B. frauenfeldi is unlikely to establish in horticultural production areas further south than Townsville.

Population genetics of the frog-killing fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis

Global amphibian decline by chytridiomycosis is a major environmental disaster that has been attributed to either recent fungal spread or environmental change that promotes disease. Here, we present a population genetic comparison of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis isolates from an intensively studied region of frog decline, the Sierra Nevada of California. In support of a novel pathogen, we find low diversity, no amphibian-host specificity, little correlation between fungal genotype and geography, local frog extirpation by a single fungal genotype, and evidence of human-assisted fungus migration. In support of endemism, at a local scale, we find some diverse, recombining populations. Therefore neither epidemic spread nor endemism alone explains this particular amphibian decline. Recombination raises the possibility of resistant sporangia and a mechanism for rapid spread as well as persistence that could greatly complicate global control of the pathogen.

IUCN classification zones concord with, but underestimate, the population genetic structure of the zebra shark Stegostoma fasciatum in the Indo-West Pacific

The Indo-West Pacific (IWP), from South Africa in the western Indian Ocean to the western Pacific Ocean, contains some of the most biologically diverse marine habitats on earth, including the greatest biodiversity of chondrichthyan fishes. The region encompasses various densities of human habitation leading to contrasts in the levels of exploitation experienced by chondrichthyans, which are targeted for local consumption and export. The demersal chondrichthyan, the zebra shark, Stegostoma fasciatum, is endemic to the IWP and has two current regional International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List classifications that reflect differing levels of exploitation: ‘Least Concern’ and ‘Vulnerable’. In this study, we employed mitochondrial ND4 sequence data and 13 microsatellite loci to investigate the population genetic structure of 180 zebra sharks from 13 locations throughout the IWP to test the concordance of IUCN zones with demographic units that have conservation value. Mitochondrial and microsatellite data sets from samples collected throughout northern Australia and Southeast Asia concord with the regional IUCN classifications. However, we found evidence of genetic subdivision within these regions, including subdivision between locations connected by habitat suitable for migration. Furthermore, parametric FST analyses and Bayesian clustering analyses indicated that the primary genetic break within the IWP is not represented by the IUCN classifications but rather is congruent with the Indonesian throughflow current. Our findings indicate that recruitment to areas of high exploitation from nearby healthy populations in zebra sharks is likely to be minimal, and that severe localized depletions are predicted to occur in zebra shark populations throughout the IWP region.

Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of plant pest invasions with human-mediated dispersal

Hierarchical Bayesian models can assimilate surveillance and ecological information to estimate both invasion extent and model parameters for invading plant pests spread by people. A reliability analysis framework that can accommodate multiple dispersal modes is developed to estimate human-mediated dispersal parameters for an invasive species. Uncertainty in the observation process is modelled by accounting for local natural spread and population growth within spatial units. Broad scale incursion dynamics are based on a mechanistic gravity model with a Weibull distribution modification to incorporate a local pest build-up phase. The model uses Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations to infer the probability of colonisation times for discrete spatial units and to estimate connectivity parameters between these units. The hierarchical Bayesian model with observational and ecological components is applied to a surveillance dataset for a spiralling whitefly (Aleurodicus dispersus) invasion in Queensland, Australia. The model structure provides a useful application that draws on surveillance data and ecological knowledge that can be used to manage the risk of pest movement.