19 resultados para Gross domestic product -- Victoria.

em eResearch Archive - Queensland Department of Agriculture


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The APSIM-Wheat module was used to investigate our present capacity to simulate wheat yields in a semi-arid region of eastern Australia (the Victorian Mallee), where hostile subsoils associated with salinity, sodicity, and boron toxicity are known to limit grain yield. In this study we tested whether the effects of subsoil constraints on wheat growth and production could be modelled with APSIM-Wheat by assuming that either: (a) root exploration within a particular soil layer was reduced by the presence of toxic concentrations of salts, or (b) soil water uptake from a particular soil layer was reduced by high concentration of salts through osmotic effects. After evaluating the improved predictive capacity of the model we applied it to study the interactions between subsoil constraints and seasonal conditions, and to estimate the economic effect that subsoil constraints have on wheat farming in the Victorian Mallee under different climatic scenarios. Although the soils had high levels of salinity, sodicity, and boron, the observed variability in root abundance at different soil layers was mainly related to soil salinity. We concluded that: (i) whether the effect of subsoil limitations on growth and yield of wheat in the Victorian Mallee is driven by toxic, osmotic, or both effects acting simultaneously still requires further research, (ii) at present, the performance of APSIM-Wheat in the region can be improved either by assuming increased values of lower limit for soil water extraction, or by modifying the pattern of root exploration in the soil pro. le, both as a function of soil salinity. The effect of subsoil constraints on wheat yield and gross margin can be expected to be higher during drier than wetter seasons. In this region the interaction between climate and soil properties makes rainfall information alone, of little use for risk management and farm planning when not integrated with cropping systems models.

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The proposed simplified Integrated Sugar Production Process (ISPP) using membrane technology would allow the sugar industry to produce new product streams and higher quality mill sugar with increased sugar extraction efficiency. Membrane filtration technology has proven to be a technically sound process to increase sugar quality. However commercial viability has been uncertain partly because the benefits to crystallisation and sugar quality have not outweighed the increased processing cost. This simplified ISPP produces additional value-added liquid streams to make the membrane fractionation process more financially viable and improve the profitability of sugar manufacture. An experimental study used pilot scale membrane fractionation of clarified mill juice confirmed the technical feasibility of separating inorganic salt and antioxidant rich fractions from cane juice. The paper presents details on the compositions of the liquid streams along with their potential uses, values and challenges in getting these products out to market.

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Medium bedding sand which is commonly available in coastal sedimentary deposits, and a marine polychaete-worm species from Moreton Bay recently classified as Perinereis helleri (Nereididae), were deployed in a simple low-maintenance sand filter design that potentially has application at large scale. Previous work had shown that this physical and biological combination can provide a new option for saline wastewater treatment, since the worms help to prevent sand filter blocking with organic debris and offer a profitable by-product. To test the application of this new concept in a commercial environment, six 1.84 m2 Polychaete-assisted sand filters were experimentally tested for their ability to treat wastewater from a semi-intensive prawn culture pond. Polychaetes produced exclusively on the waste nutrients that collected in these gravity-driven sand filters were assessed for their production levels and nutritional contents. Water parameters studied included temperature, salinity, pH, dissolved oxygen (DO), oxidation/ reduction potential (redox), suspended solids, chlorophyll a, biological oxygen demand (BOD), and common forms of nitrogen and phosphorus. Pond water which had percolated through the sand bed had significantly lower pH, DO and redox levels compared with inflow water. Suspended solids and chlorophyll a levels were consistently more than halved by the process. Reductions in BOD appeared dependant on regular subsurface flows. Only marginal reductions in total nitrogen and phosphorus were documented, but their forms were altered in a potentially useful way: dissolved forms (ammonia and orthophosphate) were generated by the process, and this remineralisation also seemed to be accentuated by intermittent flow patterns. Flow rates of approximately 1,500 L m-2 d-1 were achieved suggesting that a 1 ha polychaete bed of this nature could similarly treat the discharge from a 10 ha semi-intensive prawn farm. Sixteen weeks after stocking sand beds with one-month-old P. helleri, over 3.6 kg of polychaete biomass (wet weight) was recovered from the trial. Production on a sand bed area basis was 328 g m-2. Similar (P>0.05) overall biomass production was found for the two stocking densities tested (2000 and 6000 m-2; n = 3), but survival was lower and more worms were graded as small (<0.6 g) when produced at the higher density (28.2 ± 1.5 % and approx. 88 %, respectively) compared with the lower density (46.8 ± 4.4 % and approx. 76 %, respectively). When considered on a weight for weight basis, about half of the worm biomass produced was generally suitable for use as bait. The nutritional contents of the worms harvested were analysed for different stocking densities and graded sizes. These factors did not significantly affect their percentages of dry matter (DM) (18.23 ± 0.57 %), ash (19.77 ± 0.80 % of DM) or gross energy 19.39 ± 0.29 MJ kg-1 DM) (n = 12). Although stocking density did not affect the worms’ nitrogen and phosphorus contents, small worms had a higher mean proportion of nitrogen and phosphorus (10.57 ± 0.17 % and 0.70 ± 0.01 % of DM, respectively) than large worms (9.99 ± 0.12 % and 0.65 ± 0.01 % of DM, respectively) (n = 6). More lipid was present in large worms grown at the medium density (11.20 ± 0.19 %) compared with the high density (9.50 ± 0.31 %) and less was generally found in small worms (7.1-7.6 % of DM). Mean cholesterol and total phospholipid levels were 5.24 ± 0.15 mg g-1 and 13.66 ± 2.15 mg g-1 DM, respectively (n = 12). Of the specific phospholipids tested, phosphatidyl-serine or sphingomyelin were below detection limits (<0.05 mg g-1), whilst mean levels of phosphatidyl-ethanolamine, phosphatidyl-inositol, phosphatidyl-choline and lysophosphatidyl-choline were 6.89 ± 1.09, 0.89 ± 0.26, 4.04 ± 1.17 and 1.84 ± 0.37 mg g-1, respectively (n = 12). Culture density generally had a more pronounced effect on phospholipid contents than did size of worms. By contrast, worm size had a more pronounced effect on total fatty acid contents, with large worms containing significantly higher (P<0.001) levels on a DM basis (46.88 ± 2.46 mg g-1) than smaller worms (27.76 ± 1.28 mg g-1). A very broad range of fatty acids were detected with palmitic acid being the most heavily represented class (up to 14.23 ± 0.49 mg g-1 DM or 27.28 ± 0.22 % of total fatty acids). Other heavily represented classes included stearic acid (7.4-8.8 %), vaccenic acid (6.8-7.8 %), arachidonic acid (3.5-4.4 %), eicosapentaenoic acid (9.9-13.8 %) and docosenoic acid (5.7-7.0 %). Stocking density did not affect (P>0.05) the levels of amino acids present in polychaete DM, but there was generally less of each amino acid tested on a weight per weight basis in large worms than in small worms. This difference was significant (P<0.05) for the most heavily represented classes being glutamic acid (73-77 mg g-1), aspartic acid (50-54 mg g-1), and glycine (46-53 mg g-1). These results demonstrate how this polychaete species can be planted and sorted at harvest according to various strategies aimed at providing biomass with specific physical and nutritional qualities for different uses.

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The goal of the Program is to contribute to economic growth in the Philippines through increased income and improved livelihoods of tropical fruit growers in southern Philippines. The purpose of the Program is to improve the smallholder and industry profitability and export competitiveness of selected tropical fruits industries in the southern Philippines. Fruit crops to be targeted are mango, papaya, durian and jackfruit. The primary audience for the outcomes of this Program are medium to large scale commercial fruit growers and farmers predominantly in the regions of Leyte (VIII), northern Mindanao/Cagayan de Oro (X) and southern Mindanao/Davao (XI).

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Few tools are available to assist graziers, land administrators and financiers in making objective grazing capacity decisions on Australian rangelands, despite existing knowledge regarding stocking rate theory and the impact of stocking rates on land condition. To address this issue a model for objectively estimating 'safe' grazing capacities on individual grazing properties in south-west Queensland was developed. The method is based on 'safe' levels of utilisation (15%-20%) by domestic livestock of average annual forage grown for each land system on a property. Average annual forage grown (kglha) was calculated as the product of the rainfall use efficiency (kglhdmm) and average annual rainfall (mm) for a land system. This estimate included the impact of tree and shrub cover on forage production. The 'safe' levels of forage utilisation for south- west Queensland pastures were derived from the combined experience of (1) re-analysis of the results of grazing trials, (2) reaching a consensus on local knowledge and (3) examination of existing grazing practice on 'benchmark' grazing properties. We recognise the problems in defining, determining and using grazing capacity values, but consider that the model offers decision makers a tool that can be used to assess the grazing capacity of individual properties.

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The proposed simplified Integrated Sugar Production Process (ISPP) using membrane technology would allow the sugar industry to produce new product streams and higher quality mill sugar with increased sugar extraction efficiency. Membrane filtration technology has proven to be a technically sound process to increase sugar quality. However commercial viability has been uncertain partly because the benefits to crystallisation and sugar quality have not outweighed the increased processing cost. This simplified ISPP produces additional value-added liquid streams to make the membrane fractionation process more financially viable and improve the profitability of sugar manufacture. An experimental study used pilot scale membrane fractionation of clarified mill juice confirmed the technical feasibility of separating inorganic salt and antioxidant rich fractions from cane juice. The paper presents details on the compositions of the liquid streams along with their potential uses, values and challenges in getting these products out to market. This paper was presented at the 2010 Australian Society of Sugar Cane Technologists annual conference.

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This study provides information about wood quality, structural properties, processing characterists and product suitability of wood harvested from fast-grown hardwood plantations. Wood quality attributes tested included density, extractive content, unit shrinkage, heartwood proportion and sapwood width. Structural properties tested included small clear and full section strength and stiffness, hardness, joint group, visual grade assessment and natural vibration-based grade assessment. The variation between the inner, intermediate and outer heartwood zones and the variation between provenances was also tested. Overall, the wood qualtiy attributes measured for 19 year-old E. cloeziana and 15 year-old E. pellita plantation material fall between those expected from the wood of mature, native forest trees and those found in younger plantation material of the same species.

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Logs from two hardwood plantations in north Queensland were peeled to assess the veneer and plywood potential of fast-grown tropical plantation eucalypts. After visual grading and veneer recovery calculatios, selected veneers were assembled to produce plywood panels. These were tested for mechanical properties and glue bond strength to determine the suitability of young, fast-grown, tropical eucalytps for panel product applications.

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This review highlights the considerable variation found in wood properties impacting timber stiffness and stability such as wood density, spiral grain and microfibril angle. Variation with age, site quality and environment, as well as amongst species, hybrids and genetic stock is reported and opportunities for product-focused wood quality improvement are identified.

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Quality and safety evaluation of agricultural products has become an increasingly important consideration in market/commercial viability and systems for such evaluations are now demanded by customers, including distributors and retailers. Unfortunately, most horticultural products struggle with delivering adequate and consistent quality to the consumer. Removing inconsistencies and providing what the consumer expects is a key factor for retaining and expanding both domestic and international markets. Most commercial quality classification systems for fruit and vegetables are based on external features of the product, for example: shape, colour, size, weight and blemishes. However, the external appearance of most fruit is generally not an accurate guide to the internal or eating quality of the fruit. Internal quality of fruit is currently subjectively judged on attributes such as volatiles, firmness, and appearance. Destructive subjective measures such as internal flesh colour, or objective measures such as extraction of juice to measure sweetness (oBrix) or assessment of dry matter (DM) content are also used, although obviously not for every fruit – just a sample to represent the whole consignment. For avocado fruit, external colour is not a maturity characteristic, and its smell is too weak and appears later in its maturity stage (Gaete-Garreton et al., 2005). Since maturity is a major component of avocado quality and palatability, it is important to harvest mature fruit, so as to ensure that fruit will ripen properly and have acceptable eating quality. Currently, commercial avocado maturity estimation is based on destructive assessment of the %DM, and sometimes percent oil, both of which are highly correlated with maturity (Clark et al., 2003; Mizrach & Flitsanov, 1999). Avocados Australia Limited (AAL (2008)) recommend a minimum maturity standard for its growers of 23 %DM (greater than 10% oil content) for the ‘Hass’ cultivar, although consumer studies indicate a preference for at least 25 %DM (Harker et al., 2007).

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Non-Technical Summary Seafood CRC Project 2009/774. Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery Principal Investigator: Dr Tony Courtney, Principal Fisheries Biologist Fisheries and Aquaculture, Agri-Science Queensland Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Level B1, Ecosciences Precinct, Joe Baker St, Dutton Park, Queensland 4102 Email: tony.courtney@daff.qld.gov.au Project objectives: 1. Review the literature and data (i.e., economic, biological and logbook) relevant to the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 2. Identify and prioritise management objectives for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery, as identified by the trawl fishers. 3. Undertake an economic analysis of Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 4. Quantify long-term changes to fishing power for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 5. Assess priority harvest strategies identified in 2 (above). Present results to, and discuss results with, Moreton Bay Seafood Industry Association (MBSIA), fishers and Fisheries Queensland. Note: Additional, specific objectives for 2 (above) were developed by fishers and the MBSIA after commencement of the project. These are presented in detail in section 5 (below). The project was an initiative of the MBSIA, primarily in response to falling profitability in the Moreton Bay prawn trawl fishery. The analyses were undertaken by a consortium of DAFF, CSIRO and University of Queensland researchers. This report adopted the Australian Standard Fish Names (http://www.fishnames.com.au/). Trends in catch and effort The Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery is a multispecies fishery, with the majority of the catch composed of Greasyback Prawns (Metapenaeus bennettae), Brown Tiger Prawns (Penaeus esculentus), Eastern King Prawns (Melicertus plebejus), squid (Uroteuthis spp., Sepioteuthis spp.), Banana Prawns (Fenneropenaeus merguiensis), Endeavour Prawns (Metapenaeus ensis, Metapenaeus endeavouri) and Moreton Bay bugs (Thenus parindicus). Other commercially important byproduct includes blue swimmer crabs (Portunus armatus), three-spot crabs (Portunus sanguinolentus), cuttlefish (Sepia spp.) and mantis shrimp (Oratosquilla spp.). Logbook catch and effort data show that total annual reported catch of prawns from the Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery has declined to 315 t in 2008 from a maximum of 901 t in 1990. The number of active licensed vessels participating in the fishery has also declined from 207 in 1991 to 57 in 2010. Similarly, fishing effort has fallen from a peak of 13,312 boat-days in 1999 to 3817 boat-days in 2008 – a 71% reduction. The declines in catch and effort are largely attributed to reduced profitability in the fishery due to increased operational costs and depressed prawn prices. The low prawn prices appear to be attributed to Australian aquacultured prawns and imported aquacultured vannamei prawns, displacing the markets for trawl-caught prawns, especially small species such as Greasyback Prawns which traditionally dominated landings in Moreton Bay. In recent years, the relatively high Australian dollar has resulted in reduced exports of Australian wild-caught prawns. This has increased supply on the domestic market which has also suppressed price increases. Since 2002, Brown Tiger Prawns have dominated annual reported landings in the Moreton Bay fishery. While total catch and effort in the bay have declined to historically low levels, the annual catch and catch rates of Brown Tiger Prawns have been at record highs in recent years. This appears to be at least partially attributed to the tiger prawn stock having recovered from excessive effort in previous decades. The total annual value of the Moreton Bay trawl fishery catch, including byproduct, is about $5 million, of which Brown Tiger Prawns account for about $2 million. Eastern King Prawns make up about 10% of the catch and are mainly caught in the bay from October to December as they migrate to offshore waters outside the bay where they contribute to a large mono-specific trawl fishery. Some of the Eastern King Prawns harvested in Moreton Bay may be growth overfished (i.e., caught below the size required to maximise yield or value), although the optimum size-at-capture was not determined in this study. Banana Prawns typically make up about 5% of the catch, but can exceed 20%, particularly following heavy rainfall. Economic analysis of the fishery From the economic survey, cash profits were, on average, positive for both fleet segments in both years of the survey. However, after the opportunity cost of capital and depreciation were taken into account, the residual owner-operator income was relatively low, and substantially lower than the average share of revenue paid to employed skippers. Consequently, owner-operators were earning less than their opportunity cost of their labour, suggesting that the fleets were economically unviable in the longer term. The M2 licensed fleet were, on average, earning similar boat cash profits as the T1/M1 fleet, although after the higher capital costs were accounted for the T1/M1 boats were earning substantially lower returns to owner-operator labour. The mean technical efficiency for the fleet as a whole was estimated to be 0.67. That is, on average, the boats were only catching 67 per cent of what was possible given their level of inputs (hours fished and hull units). Almost one-quarter of observations had efficiency scores above 0.8, suggesting a substantial proportion of the fleet are relatively efficient, but some are also relatively inefficient. Both fleets had similar efficiency distributions, with median technical efficiency score of 0.71 and 0.67 for the M2 and T1/M1 boats respectively. These scores are reasonably consistent with other studies of prawn trawl fleets in Australia, although higher average efficiency scores were found in the NSW prawn trawl fleet. From the inefficiency model, several factors were found to significantly influence vessel efficiency. These included the number of years of experience as skipper, the number of generations that the skipper’s family had been fishing and the number of years schooling. Skippers with more schooling were significantly more efficient than skippers with lower levels of schooling, consistent with other studies. Skippers who had been fishing longer were, in fact, less efficient than newer skippers. However, this was mitigated in the case of skippers whose family had been involved in fishing for several generations, consistent with other studies and suggesting that skill was passed through by families over successive generations. Both the linear and log-linear regression models of total fishing effort against the marginal profit per hour performed reasonably well, explaining between 70 and 84 per cent of the variation in fishing effort. As the models had different dependent variables (one logged and the other not logged) this is not a good basis for model choice. A better comparator is the square root of the mean square error (SMSE) expressed as a percentage of the mean total effort. On this criterion, both models performed very similarly. The linear model suggests that each additional dollar of average profits per hour in the fishery increases total effort by around 26 hours each month. From the log linear model, each percentage increase in profits per hour increases total fishing effort by 0.13 per cent. Both models indicate that economic performance is a key driver of fishing effort in the fishery. The effect of removing the boat-replacement policy is to increase individual vessel profitability, catch and effort, but the overall increase in catch is less than that removed by the boats that must exit the fishery. That is, the smaller fleet (in terms of boat numbers) is more profitable but the overall catch is not expected to be greater than before. This assumes, however, that active boats are removed, and that these were also taking an average level of catch. If inactive boats are removed, then catch of the remaining group as a whole could increase by between 14 and 17 per cent depending on the degree to which costs are reduced with the new boats. This is still substantially lower than historical levels of catch by the fleet. Fishing power analyses An analysis of logbook data from 1988 to 2010, and survey information on fishing gear, was performed to estimate the long-term variation in the fleet’s ability to catch prawns (known as fishing power) and to derive abundance estimates of the three most commercially important prawn species (i.e., Brown Tiger, Eastern King and Greasyback Prawns). Generalised linear models were used to explain the variation in catch as a function of effort (i.e., hours fished per day), vessel and gear characteristics, onboard technologies, population abundance and environmental factors. This analysis estimated that fishing power associated with Brown Tiger and Eastern King Prawns increased over the past 20 years by 10–30% and declined by approximately 10% for greasybacks. The density of tiger prawns was estimated to have almost tripled from around 0.5 kg per hectare in 1988 to 1.5 kg/ha in 2010. The density of Eastern King Prawns was estimated to have fluctuated between 1 and 2 kg per hectare over this time period, without any noticeable overall trend, while Greasyback Prawn densities were estimated to have fluctuated between 2 and 6 kg per hectare, also without any distinctive trend. A model of tiger prawn catches was developed to evaluate the impact of fishing on prawn survival rates in Moreton Bay. The model was fitted to logbook data using the maximum-likelihood method to provide estimates of the natural mortality rate (0.038 and 0.062 per week) and catchability (which can be defined as the proportion of the fished population that is removed by one unit of effort, in this case, estimated to be 2.5 ± 0.4 E-04 per boat-day). This approach provided a method for industry and scientists to develop together a realistic model of the dynamics of the fishery. Several aspects need to be developed further to make this model acceptable to industry. Firstly, there is considerable evidence to suggest that temperature influences prawn catchability. This ecological effect should be incorporated before developing meaningful harvest strategies. Secondly, total effort has to be allocated between each species. Such allocation of effort could be included in the model by estimating several catchability coefficients. Nevertheless, the work presented in this report is a stepping stone towards estimating essential fishery parameters and developing representative mathematical models required to evaluate harvest strategies. Developing a method that allowed an effective discussion between industry, management and scientists took longer than anticipated. As a result, harvest strategy evaluations were preliminary and only included the most valuable species in the fishery, Brown Tiger Prawns. Additional analyses and data collection, including information on catch composition from field sampling, migration rates and recruitment, would improve the modelling. Harvest strategy evaluations As the harvest strategy evaluations are preliminary, the following results should not be adopted for management purposes until more thorough evaluations are performed. The effects, of closing the fishery for one calendar month, on the annual catch and value of Brown Tiger Prawns were investigated. Each of the 12 months (i.e., January to December) was evaluated. The results were compared against historical records to determine the magnitude of gain or loss associated with the closure. Uncertainty regarding the trawl selectivity was addressed using two selectivity curves, one with a weight at 50% selection (S50%) of 7 g, based on research data, and a second with S50% of 14 g, put forward by industry. In both cases, it was concluded that any monthly closure after February would not be beneficial to the industry. The magnitude of the benefit of closing the fishery in either January or February was sensitive to which mesh selectivity curve that was assumed, with greater benefit achieved when the smaller selectivity curve (i.e., S50% = 7 g) was assumed. Using the smaller selectivity (S50% = 7 g), the expected increase in catch value was 10–20% which equates to $200,000 to $400,000 annually, while the larger selectivity curve (S50% = 14 g) suggested catch value would be improved by 5–10%, or $100,000 to $200,000. The harvest strategy evaluations showed that greater benefits, in the order of 30–60% increases in the tiger annual catch value, could have been obtained by closing the fishery early in the year when annual effort levels were high (i.e., > 10,000 boat-days). In recent years, as effort levels have declined (i.e., ~4000 boat-days annually), expected benefits from such closures are more modest. In essence, temporal closures offer greater benefit when fishing mortality rates are high. A spatial analysis of Brown Tiger Prawn catch and effort was also undertaken to obtain a better understanding of the prawn population dynamics. This indicated that, to improve profitability of the fishery, fishers could consider closing the fishery in the period from June to October, which is already a period of low profitability. This would protect the Brown Tiger Prawn spawning stock, increase catch rates of all species in the lucrative pre-Christmas period (November–December), and provide fishers with time to do vessel maintenance, arrange markets for the next season’s harvest, and, if they wish, work at other jobs. The analysis found that the instantaneous rate of total mortality (Z) for the March–June period did not vary significantly over the last two decades. As the Brown Tiger Prawn population in Moreton Bay has clearly increased over this time period, an interesting conclusion is that the instantaneous rate of natural mortality (M) must have increased, suggesting that tiger prawn natural mortality may be density-dependent at this time of year. Mortality rates of tiger prawns for June–October were found to have decreased over the last two decades, which has probably had a positive effect on spawning stocks in the October–November spawning period. Abiotic effects on the prawns The influence of air temperature, rainfall, freshwater flow, the southern oscillation index (SOI) and lunar phase on the catch rates of the four main prawn species were investigated. The analyses were based on over 200,000 daily logbook catch records over 23 years (i.e., 1988–2010). Freshwater flow was more influential than rainfall and SOI, and of the various sources of flow, the Brisbane River has the greatest volume and influence on Moreton Bay prawn catches. A number of time-lags were also considered. Flow in the preceding month prior to catch (i.e., 30 days prior, Logflow1_30) and two months prior (31–60 days prior, Logflow31_60) had strong positive effects on Banana Prawn catch rates. Average air temperature in the preceding 4-6 months (Temp121_180) also had a large positive effect on Banana Prawn catch rates. Flow in the month immediately preceding catch (Logflow1_30) had a strong positive influence on Greasyback Prawn catch rates. Air temperature in the preceding two months prior to catch (Temp1_60) had a large positive effect on Brown Tiger Prawn catch rates. No obvious or marked effects were detected for Eastern King Prawns, although interestingly, catch rates declined with increasing air temperature 4–6 months prior to catch. As most Eastern King Prawn catches in Moreton Bay occur in October to December, the results suggest catch rates decline with increasing winter temperatures. In most cases, the prawn catch rates declined with the waxing lunar phase (high luminance/full moon), and increased with the waning moon (low luminance/new moon). The SOI explains little additional variation in prawn catch rates (~ <2%), although its influence was higher for Banana Prawns. Extrapolating findings of the analyses to long-term climate change effects should be interpreted with caution. That said, the results are consistent with likely increases in abundance in the region for the two tropical species, Banana Prawns and Brown Tiger Prawns, as coastal temperatures rise. Conversely, declines in abundance could be expected for the two temperate species, Greasyback and Eastern King Prawns. Corporate management structures An examination of alternative governance systems was requested by the industry at one of the early meetings, particularly systems that may give them greater autonomy in decision making as well as help improve the marketing of their product. Consequently, a review of alternative management systems was undertaken, with a particular focus on the potential for self-management of small fisheries (small in terms of number of participants) and corporate management. The review looks at systems that have been implemented or proposed for other small fisheries internationally, with a particular focus on self-management as well as the potential benefits and challenges for corporate management. This review also highlighted particular opportunities for the Moreton Bay prawn fishery. Corporate management differs from other co-management and even self-management arrangements in that ‘ownership’ of the fishery is devolved to a company in which fishers and government are shareholders. The company manages the fishery as well as coordinates marketing to ensure that the best prices are received and that the catch taken meets the demands of the market. Coordinated harvesting will also result in increased profits, which are returned to fishers in the form of dividends. Corporate management offers many of the potential benefits of an individual quota system without formally implementing such a system. A corporate management model offers an advantage over a self-management model in that it can coordinate both marketing and management to take advantage of this unique geographical advantage. For such a system to be successful, the fishery needs to be relatively small and self- contained. Small in this sense is in terms of number of operators. The Moreton Bay prawn fishery satisfies these key conditions for a successful self-management and potentially corporate management system. The fishery is small both in terms of number of participants and geography. Unlike other fisheries that have progressed down the self-management route, the key market for the product from the Moreton Bay fishery is right at its doorstep. Corporate management also presents a number of challenges. First, it will require changes in the way fishers operate. In particular, the decision on when to fish and what to catch will be taken away from the individual and decided by the collective. Problems will develop if individuals do not join the corporation but continue to fish and market their own product separately. While this may seem an attractive option to fishers who believe they can do better independently, this is likely to be just a short- term advantage with an overall long-run cost to themselves as well as the rest of the industry. There are also a number of other areas that need further consideration, particularly in relation to the allocation of shares, including who should be allocated shares (e.g. just boat owners or also some employed skippers). Similarly, how harvesting activity is to be allocated by the corporation to the fishers. These are largely issues that cannot be answered without substantial consultation with those likely to be affected, and these groups cannot give these issues serious consideration until the point at which they are likely to become a reality. Given the current structure and complexity of the fishery, it is unlikely that such a management structure will be feasible in the short term. However, the fishery is a prime candidate for such a model, and development of such a management structure in the future should be considered as an option for the longer term.

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A recent report to the Australian Government identified concerns relating to Australia's capacity to respond to a medium to large outbreak of FMD. To assess the resources required, the AusSpread disease simulation model was used to develop a plausible outbreak scenario that included 62 infected premises in five different states at the time of detection, 28 days after the disease entered the first property in Victoria. Movements of infected animals and/or contaminated product/equipment led to smaller outbreaks in NSW, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania. With unlimited staff resources, the outbreak was eradicated in 63 days with 54 infected premises and a 98% chance of eradication within 3 months. This unconstrained response was estimated to involve 2724 personnel. Unlimited personnel was considered unrealistic, and therefore, the course of the outbreak was modelled using three levels of staffing and the probability of achieving eradication within 3 or 6 months of introduction determined. Under the baseline staffing level, there was only a 16% probability that the outbreak would be eradicated within 3 months, and a 60% probability of eradication in 6 months. Deployment of an additional 60 personnel in the first 3 weeks of the response increased the likelihood of eradication in 3 months to 68%, and 100% in 6 months. Deployment of further personnel incrementally increased the likelihood of timely eradication and decreased the duration and size of the outbreak. Targeted use of vaccination in high-risk areas coupled with the baseline personnel resources increased the probability of eradication in 3 months to 74% and to 100% in 6 months. This required 25 vaccination teams commencing 12 days into the control program increasing to 50 vaccination teams 3 weeks later. Deploying an equal number of additional personnel to surveillance and infected premises operations was equally effective in reducing the outbreak size and duration.

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Those seeking to bring change to cultivars sold in the banana markets of the world have encountered major difficulties over the years. Change has been sought because of production difficulties caused by banana diseases such as Fusarium wilt or a desire to invigorate a stagnant market and obtain a competitive advantage by the introduction of diversity of product. Currently the world banana scene is dominated by cultivars from the Cavendish subgroup with their production in excess of 40% of total world production of banana and plantain combined, and in most western countries Cavendish is synonymous with banana. But Cavendish production usually necessitates very regular applications of pesticides, particularly fungicides for Mycosphaerella leaf spots control. So genetic resistance to these and other diseases would be very beneficial to minimizing costs of production, as well as reducing health risks to banana workers and the general population and minimizing impacts on the environment. In recent years, the overall market sales of some crops, such as tomatoes, have increased by providing diversity of cultivars to consumers. Can the same be done for banana? Perhaps a better understanding of how we have arrived at our current situation and the forces that have shaped our preference for Cavendish will allow us to plan more strategic crop improvement research which has enhanced chances of adoption by the banana industries of the world. A scoping study was recently undertaken in Australia to determine the current market opportunity for alternative cultivars and provide a roadmap for the industry to successfully develop this market. A multidisciplinary team reviewed the literature, surveyed the supply chain, analyzed gross margins and conducted consumer and sensory evaluations of 'new' cultivars. This has provided insight on why Cavendish dominates the market, which is the focus of this paper, and we believe will provide a solid foundation for future progress.