The effect of data sources and quality on the predictive capacity of CLIMEX models: an assessment of Teleonemia scrupulosa and Octotoma scabripennis for the biocontrol of Lantana camara in Australia

Understanding the effects of different types and quality of data on bioclimatic modeling predictions is vital to ascertaining the value of existing models, and to improving future models. Bioclimatic models were constructed using the CLIMEX program, using different data types – seasonal dynamics, geographic (overseas) distribution, and a combination of the two – for two biological control agents for the major weed Lantana camara L. in Australia. The models for one agent, Teleonemia scrupulosa Stål (Hemiptera:Tingidae) were based on a higher quality and quantity of data than the models for the other agent, Octotoma scabripennis Guérin-Méneville (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae). Predictions of the geographic distribution for Australia showed that T. scrupulosa models exhibited greater accuracy with a progressive improvement from seasonal dynamics data, to the model based on overseas distribution, and finally the model combining the two data types. In contrast, O. scabripennis models were of low accuracy, and showed no clear trends across the various model types. These case studies demonstrate the importance of high quality data for developing models, and of supplementing distributional data with species seasonal dynamics data wherever possible. Seasonal dynamics data allows the modeller to focus on the species response to climatic trends, while distributional data enables easier fitting of stress parameters by restricting the species envelope to the described distribution. It is apparent that CLIMEX models based on low quality seasonal dynamics data, together with a small quantity of distributional data, are of minimal value in predicting the spatial extent of species distribution.

Zoysia japonica, Zoysia Grass 'Palisades'

Open-pollination: originated as a chance seedling from Z44 (maternal clonal parent), obtained from Beltsville MD in 1981, with an unknown pollen source from a zoysia grass germplasm field nursery at the Texas Agricultural Experiment Station in Dallas. ‘Palisades’ was selected over the parent Z44 on the basis of its lower tendency to produce thatch, its excellent lateral growth habit and its superior mowing qualities. ‘Palisades’ has been vegetatively propagated, and is uniform in growth expression. No seedling establishment from ‘Palisades’ has been noticed in either greenhouse or field studies. Selection criteria: rapid regrowth and spread by, and/or from, stolons and rhizomes; turf colour and density; tolerance to low mowing; winter hardiness; shade tolerance; low water use requirements. Propagation: vegetative. Breeder: Milton C. Engelke, Dallas, USA. PBR Certificate Number 2594, Application Number 2001/199, granted 26 October 2004.

Two novel mastreviruses from chickpea (Cicer arietinum) in Australia

Two novel mastreviruses (genus Mastrevirus; family Geminiviridae), with proposed names chickpea chlorosis virus (CpCV) and chickpea redleaf virus, are described from chickpea (Cicer arietinum) from eastern Australia. The viruses have genomes of 2,582 and 2,605 nucleotides, respectively, and share similar features and organisation with typical dicot-infecting mastreviruses. Two distinct strains of CpCV were suggested by phylogenetic analysis. Additionally, a partial mastrevirus Rep sequence from turnip weed (Rapistrum rugosum) indicated the presence of a distinct strain of Tobacco yellow dwarf virus (TYDV). In phylogenetic analyses, isolates of Bean yellow dwarf virus, Chickpea chlorotic dwarf Pakistan virus and Chickpea chlorotic dwarf Sudan virus from southern and northern Africa and south-central and western Asia clustered separately from these three viruses from Australia. An Australian, eastern Asian, or south-eastern Asian origin for the novel mastreviruses and TYDV is discussed.

Learning from the past to predict the future: an historical analysis of grass invasions in northern Australia

An important focus of biosecurity is anticipating future risks, but time lags between introduction, naturalisation, and (ultimately) impact mean that future risks can be strongly influenced by history. We conduct a comprehensive historical analysis of tropical grasses (n = 155) that have naturalised in Australia since European settlement (1788) to determine what factors shaped historical patterns of naturalisation and future risks, including for the 21 species that cause serious negative impacts. Most naturalised species were from the Old World (78 %), were introduced for use in pasture (64.5 %), were first recorded prior to 1940 (84.5 %) and naturalised before 1980 (90.3 %). Patterns for high-impact species were similar, with all being first recorded in Australia by 1940, and only seven naturalised since then-five intentionally introduced as pasture species. Counter to expectations, we found no evidence for increased naturalisation with increasing trade, including for species introduced unintentionally for which the link was expected to be strongest. New pathways have not emerged since the 1930s despite substantial shifts in trading patterns. Furthermore, introduction and naturalisation rates are now at or approaching historically low levels. Three reasons were identified: (1) the often long lag phase between introduction and reported naturalisation means naturalisation rates reflect historical trends in introduction rates; (2) important introduction pathways are not directly related to trade volume and globalisation; and (3) that species pools may become depleted. The last of these appears to be the case for the most important pathway for tropical grasses, i.e. the intentional introduction of useful pasture species. Assuming that new pathways don't arise that might result in increased naturalisation rates, and that current at-border biosecurity practices remain in place, we conclude that most future high-impact tropical grass species are already present in Australia. Our results highlight the need to continually test underlying assumptions regarding future naturalisation rates of high-impact invasive species, as conclusions have important implications for how best to manage future biosecurity risks.