APSIM – Evolution towards a new generation of agricultural systems simulation

Agricultural systems models worldwide are increasingly being used to explore options and solutions for the food security, climate change adaptation and mitigation and carbon trading problem domains. APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator) is one such model that continues to be applied and adapted to this challenging research agenda. From its inception twenty years ago, APSIM has evolved into a framework containing many of the key models required to explore changes in agricultural landscapes with capability ranging from simulation of gene expression through to multi-field farms and beyond. Keating et al. (2003) described many of the fundamental attributes of APSIM in detail. Much has changed in the last decade, and the APSIM community has been exploring novel scientific domains and utilising software developments in social media, web and mobile applications to provide simulation tools adapted to new demands. This paper updates the earlier work by Keating et al. (2003) and chronicles the changing external challenges and opportunities being placed on APSIM during the last decade. It also explores and discusses how APSIM has been evolving to a “next generation” framework with improved features and capabilities that allow its use in many diverse topics.

Molecular and serological detection of A. centrale- and A. marginale-infected cattle grazing within an endemic area

A reverse line blot hybridization (RLB) one-stage nested PCR (nPCR) for Anaplasma centrale and a nested PCR for Anaplasma marginale were used to detect infected cattle grazing within an endemic region in Israel. A novel set of PCR primers and oligonucleotide probes based on a 16S ribosomal RNA gene was designed for RLB detection of both Anaplasma species, and the performance of the molecular assays compared. The immunofluorescent antibody test (IFA) was used to detect antibodies to both Anaplasma species, whereas, a highly sensitive and specific competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (cELISA) was used to detect antibodies in A. centrale-vaccinated cattle. The RLB and the nested PCR procedures showed bacteremia with sensitivity of 50 infected erythrocytes per milliliter. Up to 93% of the A. centrale vaccinates carried specific antibodies that were detected by cELISA, and up to 71% of the vaccinated cattle were found to be naturally infected with A. marginale according to the PCR and the RLB assays. Nevertheless, no severe outbreaks of A. marginale infection occurred among vaccinated herds in this endemic region. It appears that both, molecular tools and serology are useful for evaluation of the vaccine efficacy. In the light of wide natural field infection with A. marginale, strong recommendations to continue the A. centrale vaccination program regime will continue until a new generation of non-blood-based vaccine will be developed.

Pre-release evaluation of the efficacy of the leaf-sucking bug Carvalhotingis visenda (Heteroptera: Tingidae) as a biological control agent for cat's claw creeper Macfadyena unguis-cati (Bignoniaceae)

In classical weed biological control, assessing weed response to simulated herbivory is one option to assist in the prioritization of available agents and prediction of their potential efficacy. Previously reported simulated herbivory studies suggested that a specialist herbivore in the leaf-feeding guild is desirable as an effective biological control agent for cat's claw creeper Macfadyena unguis-cati (Bignoniaceae), an environmental weed that is currently a target for biological control. In this study, we tested (i) whether the results from glasshouse-based simulated herbivory can be used to prioritise potential biological control agents by evaluating the impact of a leaf-sucking tingid bug Carvalhotingis visenda (Drake & Hambleton) (Hemiptera: Tingidae) in quarantine; and (ii) the likely effectiveness of low- and high-densities of the leaf-sucking tingid after its release in the field. The results suggest that a single generation of C. visenda has the potential to reduce leaf chlorophyll content significantly, resulting in reduced plant height and leaf biomass. However, the impact of one generation of tingid herbivory on below-ground plant components, including the roots and tuber size and biomass, were not significant. These findings are consistent with results obtained from a simulated herbivory trial, highlighting the potential role of simulated herbivory studies in agent prioritisation.

Using a process-based model, ParopSys, to predict the impact of climate change on the eucalypt plantation pest Paropsis atomaria.

The eucalypt leaf beetle, Paropsis atomaria Olivier, is an increasingly important pest of eucalypt plantations in subtropical eastern Australia. A process-based model, ParopSys, was developed using DYMEXTM and was found to accurately predict the beetle populations. Climate change scenarios within the latest Australian climate model forecast range were run in ParopSys at three locations to predict changes in beetle performance. Relative population peaks of early generations did not change but shifted to earlier in the season. Temperature increases of 1.0 to 1.5 ºC or greater predicted an extra generation of adults at Gympie and Canberra, but not for Lowmead, where increased populations of late season adults were observed under all scenarios. Furthermore, an additional generation of late-larval stages was predicted at temperature increases of greater than 1.0 ºC at Lowmead. Management strategies to address these changes are discussed, as are requirements to improve the predictive capacity of the model.

Reduction of witholding period: Chlorothalonil and Difenconazole on papaya

This is the first of two projects which generates the required chlorothalonil and difenconazole reside data to potentially reduce the withholding periods down from 7 days to possibly 3 or 5 days. This project funds the generation of pesticide residue sasamples in papaya which will be analysed under project PP09007. These reside data for the papaya industry are required to support the reduction in the withholding period for chlorothaloni; trade neamed including Bravo and Barrack, and difenconazole.