3 resultados para Generalized Driven Nonlinear Threshold Model

em eResearch Archive - Queensland Department of Agriculture


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The growth of the Australian eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus) is understood in greater detail by quantifying the latitudinal effect. The latitudinal effect is the change in the species’ growth rate during migration. Mark–recapture data (N = 1635, latitude 22.21°S–34.00°S) presents northerly movement of the eastern king prawn, with New South Wales prawns showing substantial average movement of 140 km (standard deviation: 176 km) north. A generalized von Bertalanffy growth model framework is used to incorporate the latitudinal effect together with the canonical seasonal effect. Applying this method to eastern king prawn mark–recapture data guarantees consistent estimates for the latitudinal and seasonal effects. For M. plebejus, it was found that growth rate peaks on 25 and 29 January for males and females, respectively; is at a minimum on 27 and 31 July, respectively; and that the shape parameter, k (per year), changes by –0.0236 and –0.0556 every 1 degree of latitude south increase for males and females, respectively.

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Commercial environments may receive only a fraction of expected genetic gains for growth rate as predicted from the selection environment. This fraction is result of undesirable genotype-by-environment interactions (GxE) and measured by the genetic correlation (rg) of growth between environments. Rapid estimates of genetic correlation achieved in one generation are notoriously difficult to estimate with precision. A new design is proposed where genetic correlations can be estimated by utilising artificial mating from cryopreserved semen and unfertilised eggs stripped from a single female. We compare a traditional phenotype analysis of growth to a threshold model where only the largest fish are genotyped for sire identification. The threshold model was robust to differences in family mortality differing up to 30%. The design is unique as it negates potential re-ranking of families caused by an interaction between common maternal environmental effects and growing environment. The design is suitable for rapid assessment of GxE over one generation with a true 0.70 genetic correlation yielding standard errors as low as 0.07. Different design scenarios were tested for bias and accuracy with a range of heritability values, number of half-sib families created, number of progeny within each full-sib family, number of fish genotyped, number of fish stocked, differing family survival rates and at various simulated genetic correlation levels.

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Understanding how aquatic species grow is fundamental in fisheries because stock assessment often relies on growth dependent statistical models. Length-frequency-based methods become important when more applicable data for growth model estimation are either not available or very expensive. In this article, we develop a new framework for growth estimation from length-frequency data using a generalized von Bertalanffy growth model (VBGM) framework that allows for time-dependent covariates to be incorporated. A finite mixture of normal distributions is used to model the length-frequency cohorts of each month with the means constrained to follow a VBGM. The variances of the finite mixture components are constrained to be a function of mean length, reducing the number of parameters and allowing for an estimate of the variance at any length. To optimize the likelihood, we use a minorization–maximization (MM) algorithm with a Nelder–Mead sub-step. This work was motivated by the decline in catches of the blue swimmer crab (BSC) (Portunus armatus) off the east coast of Queensland, Australia. We test the method with a simulation study and then apply it to the BSC fishery data.