Mixture of time-dependent growth models with an application to blue swimmer crab length-frequency data

Understanding how aquatic species grow is fundamental in fisheries because stock assessment often relies on growth dependent statistical models. Length-frequency-based methods become important when more applicable data for growth model estimation are either not available or very expensive. In this article, we develop a new framework for growth estimation from length-frequency data using a generalized von Bertalanffy growth model (VBGM) framework that allows for time-dependent covariates to be incorporated. A finite mixture of normal distributions is used to model the length-frequency cohorts of each month with the means constrained to follow a VBGM. The variances of the finite mixture components are constrained to be a function of mean length, reducing the number of parameters and allowing for an estimate of the variance at any length. To optimize the likelihood, we use a minorization–maximization (MM) algorithm with a Nelder–Mead sub-step. This work was motivated by the decline in catches of the blue swimmer crab (BSC) (Portunus armatus) off the east coast of Queensland, Australia. We test the method with a simulation study and then apply it to the BSC fishery data.

Stock assessment of the Queensland-New South Wales tailor fishery (Pomatomus saltatrix)

Data on catch sizes, catch rates, length-frequency and age composition from the Australian east coast tailor fishery are analysed by three different population dynamic models: a surplus production model, an age-structured model, and a model in which the population is structured by both age and length. The population is found to be very heavily exploited, with its ability to reproduce dependent on the fishery’s incomplete selectivity of one-year-old fish. Estimates of recent harvest rates (proportion of fish available to the fishery that are actually caught in a single year) are over 80%. It is estimated that only 30–50% of one-year-old fish are available to the fishery. Results from the age-length-structured model indicate that both exploitable biomass (total mass of fish selected by the fishery) and egg production have fallen to about half the levels that prevailed in the 1970s, and about 40% of virgin levels. Two-year-old fish appear to have become smaller over the history of the fishery. This is assumed to be due to increased fishing pressure combined with non-selectivity of small one-year-old fish, whereby the one-year-old fish that survive fishing are small and grow into small two-year-old fish the following year. An alternative hypothesis is that the stock has undergone a genetic change towards smaller fish; the true explanation is unknown. The instantaneous natural mortality rate of tailor is hypothesised to be higher than previously thought, with values between 0.8 and 1.3 yr–1 consistent with the models. These values apply only to tailor up to about three years of age, and it is possible that a lower value applies to fish older than three. The analysis finds no evidence that fishing pressure has yet affected recruitment. If a recruitment downturn were to occur, however, under current management and fishing pressure there is a strong chance that the fishery would need a complete closure for several years to recover, and even then recovery would be uncertain. Therefore it is highly desirable to better protect the spawning stock. The major recommendations are • An increase in the minimum size limit from 30cm to 40cm in order to allow most one-year-old fish to spawn, and • An experiment on discard mortality to gauge the proportion of fish between 30cm and 40cm that are likely to survive being caught and released by recreational line fishers (the dominant component of the fishery, currently harvesting roughly 1000t p.a. versus about 200t p.a. from the commercial fishery).

Frequency and precision of aerial surveys for kangaroo management

The appropriate frequency and precision for surveys of wildlife populations represent a trade-off between survey cost and the risk of making suboptimal management decisions because of poor survey data. The commercial harvest of kangaroos is primarily regulated through annual quotas set as proportions of absolute estimates of population size. Stochastic models were used to explore the effects of varying precision, survey frequency and harvest rate on the risk of quasiextinction for an arid-zone and a more mesic-zone kangaroo population. Quasiextinction probability increases in a sigmoidal fashion as survey frequency is reduced. The risk is greater in more arid regions and is highly sensitive to harvest rate. An appropriate management regime involves regular surveys in the major harvest areas where harvest rate can be set close to the maximum sustained yield. Outside these areas, survey frequency can be reduced in relatively mesic areas and reduced in arid regions when combined with lowered harvest rates. Relative to other factors, quasiextinction risk is only affected by survey precision (standard error/mean × 100) when it is >50%, partly reflecting the safety of the strategy of harvesting a proportion of a population estimate.

Time-dependent instantaneous mortality rates from multiple tagging experiments with exact times of release and recovery

Instantaneous natural mortality rates and a nonparametric hunting mortality function are estimated from a multiple-year tagging experiment with arbitrary, time-dependent fishing or hunting mortality. Our theory allows animals to be tagged over a range of times in each year, and to take time to mix into the population. Animals are recovered by hunting or fishing, and death events from natural causes occur but are not observed. We combine a long-standing approach based on yearly totals, described by Brownie et al. (1985, Statistical Inference from Band Recovery Data: A Handbook, Second edition, United States Fish and Wildlife Service, Washington, Resource Publication, 156), with an exact-time-of-recovery approach originated by Hearn, Sandland and Hampton (1987, Journal du Conseil International pour l'Exploration de la Mer, 43, 107-117), who modeled times at liberty without regard to time of tagging. Our model allows for exact times of release and recovery, incomplete reporting of recoveries, and potential tag shedding. We apply our methods to data on the heavily exploited southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii).

Phototropic growth in a reef flat acroporid branching coral species

Many terrestrial plants form complex morphological structures and will alter these growth patterns in response to light direction. Similarly reef building corals have high morphological variation across coral families, with many species also displaying phenotypic plasticity across environmental gradients. In particular, the colony geometry in branching corals is altered by the frequency, location and direction of branch initiation and growth. This study demonstrates that for the branching species Acropora pulchra, light plays a key role in axial polyp differentiation and therefore axial corallite development - the basis for new branch formation. A. pulchra branches exhibited a directional growth response, with axial corallites only developing when light was available, and towards the incident light. Field experimentation revealed that there was a light intensity threshold of 45 mu mol m(-2) s(-1), below which axial corallites would not develop and this response was blue light (408-508 nm) dependent. There was a twofold increase in axial corallite growth above this light intensity threshold and a fourfold increase in axial corallite growth under the blue light treatment. These features of coral branch growth are highly reminiscent of the initiation of phototropic branch growth in terrestrial plants, which is directed by the blue light component of sunlight.

Scale- and Context-Dependent Selection of Recreational Harvest Estimation Methods: The Australasian Experience

Fisheries managers are becoming increasingly aware of the need to quantify all forms of harvest, including that by recreational fishers. This need has been driven by both a growing recognition of the potential impact that noncommercial fishers can have on exploited resources and the requirement to allocate catch limits between different sectors of the wider fishing community in many jurisdictions. Marine recreational fishers are rarely required to report any of their activity, and some form of survey technique is usually required to estimate levels of recreational catch and effort. In this review, we describe and discuss studies that have attempted to estimate the nature and extent of recreational harvests of marine fishes in New Zealand and Australia over the past 20 years. We compare studies by method to show how circumstances dictate their application and to highlight recent developments that other researchers may find of use. Although there has been some convergence of approach, we suggest that context is an important consideration, and many of the techniques discussed here have been adapted to suit local conditions and to address recognized sources of bias. Much of this experience, along with novel improvements to existing approaches, have been reported only in "gray" literature because of an emphasis on providing estimates for immediate management purposes. This paper brings much of that work together for the first time, and we discuss how others might benefit from our experience.

The non-pathogenic Australian rabbit calicivirus RCV-A1 provides temporal and partial cross protection to lethal Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease Virus infection which is not dependent on antibody titres

The endemic non-pathogenic Australian rabbit calicivirus RCV-A1 is known to provide some cross protection to lethal infection with the closely related Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease Virus (RHDV). Despite its obvious negative impacts on viral biocontrol of introduced European rabbits in Australia, little is known about the extent and mechanisms of this cross protection. In this study 46 rabbits from a colony naturally infected with RCV-A1 were exposed to RHDV. Survival rates and survival times did not correlate with titres of serum antibodies specific to RCV-A1 or cross reacting to RHDV, but were instead influenced by the time between infection with the two viruses, demonstrating for the first time that the cross protection to lethal RHDV infection is transient. These findings are an important step towards a better understanding of the complex interactions of co-occurring pathogenic and non-pathogenic lagoviruses.

High frequency fire alters C:N:P stoichiometry in forest litter

Fire is a major driver of ecosystem change and can disproportionately affect the cycling of different nutrients. Thus, a stoichiometric approach to investigate the relationships between nutrient availability and microbial resource use during decomposition is likely to provide insight into the effects of fire on ecosystem functioning. We conducted a field litter bag experiment to investigate the long-term impact of repeated fire on the stoichiometry of leaf litter C, N and P pools, and nutrient-acquiring enzyme activities during decomposition in a wet sclerophyll eucalypt forest in Queensland, Australia. Fire frequency treatments have been maintained since 1972, including burning every two years (2yrB), burning every four years (4yrB) and no burning (NB). C:N ratios in freshly fallen litter were 29-42% higher and C:P ratios were 6-25% lower for 2yrB than NB during decomposition, with correspondingly lower 2yrB N:P ratios (27-32) than for NB (34-49). Trends in litter soluble and microbial N:P ratios were similar to the overall litter N:P ratios across fire treatments. Consistent with these, the ratio of activities for N-acquiring to P-acquiring enzymes in litter was higher for 2yrB than NB while 4yrB was generally intermediate between 2yrB and NB. Decomposition rates of freshly fallen litter were significantly lower for 2yrB (72±2% mass remaining at the end of experiment) than for 4yrB (59±3%) and NB (62±3%), a difference that may be related to effects of N limitation, lower moisture content, and/or litter C quality. Results for older mixed-age litter were similar to those for freshly fallen litter although treatment differences were less pronounced. Overall, these findings show that frequent fire (2yrB) decoupled N and P cycling, as manifested in litter C:N:P stoichiometry and in microbial biomass N:P ratio and enzymatic activities. These data indicate that fire induced a transient shift to N-limited ecosystem conditions during the post-fire recovery phase. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.