Risk management strategies using seasonal climate forecasting in irrigated cotton production: a tale of stochastic dominance.

Decision-making in agriculture is carried out in an uncertain environment with farmers often seeking information to reduce risk. As a result of the extreme variability of rainfall and stream-flows in north-eastern Australia, water supplies for irrigated agriculture are a limiting factor and a source of risk. The present study examined the use of seasonal climate forecasting (SCF) when calculating planting areas for irrigated cotton in the northern Murray Darling Basin. Results show that minimising risk by adjusting plant areas in response to SCF can lead to significant gains in gross margin returns. However, how farmers respond to SCF is dependent on several other factors including irrigators��� attitude towards risk.

Predicting mortality of phosphine-resistant adults of Sitophilus oryzae (L) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) in relation to changing phosphine concentration

Adults of a phosphine-resistant strain of Sitophilus oryzae (L) were exposed to constant phosphine concentrations of 0.0035-0.9 mg litre(-1) for periods of between 20 and 168 h at 25 ��C, and the effects of time and concentration on mortality were quantified. Adults were also exposed to a series of treatments lasting 48, 72 or 168 h at 25 ��C, during which the concentration of phosphine was varied. The aim of this study was to determine whether equations from experiments using constant concentrations could be used to predict the efficacy of changing phosphine concentrations against adults of S oryzae. A probit plane without interaction, in which the logarithms of time (t) and concentration (C) were variables, described the effects of concentration and time on mortality in experiments with constant concentrations. A derived equation of the form C^nt = k gave excellent predictions of toxicity when applied to data from changing concentration experiments. The results suggest that for resistant S oryzae adults there is nothing inherently different between constant and changing concentration regimes, and that data collected from fixed concentrations can be used to develop equations for predicting mortality in fumigations in which phosphine concentration changes. This approach could simplify the prediction of efficacy of typical fumigations in which concentrations tend to rise and then fall over a period of days.

Presence of Nicotinamide Adenine Dinucleotide���Independent Haemophilus paragallinarum in Mexico

Two isolates of Haemophilus paragallinarum were obtained from a layer chicken in Mexico. The isolates were confirmed as H. paragallinarum by polymerase chain reaction and conventional biochemical identification. The isolates were nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD) independent���growing on blood agar without the need of a nurse colony as well as on a complex medium that lacked both NAD and chicken serum. Both isolates were pathogenic, causing the typical clinical signs of infectious coryza in susceptible chickens. One isolate was Page serovar B/Kume serovar B-1 and the other isolate was Page serovar C/Kume serovar C-2. The isolates were associated with a field outbreak that involved an egg drop of 20% over a 3 wk period and a doubling of weekly mortality (from 0.1% to 0.2%). This is the first report of NAD-independent H. paragallinarum outside South Africa and is the first time that NADindependent H. paragallinarum of serovar B has been reported. Abbreviations: NAD �� nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide; NAM �� nicotinamide; PCR �� polymerase chain reaction; TM �� complete growth medium without chicken serum or nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide; TM/SN �� complete growth medium that contains both chicken serum and nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide

Virulence of the Nine Serovar Reference Strains of Haemophilus paragallinarum

The virulence of the reference strains of the nine currently recognized Kume serovars of Haemophilus paragallinarum was investigated. The capacity of the H. paragallinarum strains to cause the typical clinical signs of upper respiratory tract disease associated with infectious coryza in unvaccinated, nasal-challenged chickens was assessed. Differences in virulence were assessed by means of a standardized scoring system for clinical signs. All nine strains were pathogenic to chickens, producing typical clinical signs of infectious coryza. The highest clinical signs score was obtained for serovar C-1 (1.72), while the lowest clinical signs score was obtained for serovar C-4 (0.32). Our results indicate that virulence differences exist among the serovars of H. paragallinarum.

Phenotypic and genotypic characterisation of Pasteurella multocida isolated from pigs at slaughter in New Zealand

AIMS: To examine pigs at slaughter in New Zealand for the presence of Pasteurella multocida, and to determine for isolates, their biochemical profi les, somatic and capsular types, and the presence or absence of the HSB and toxA genes, associated with haemorrhagic septicaemia (HS) and progressive atrophic rhinitis (PAR), respectively. METHODS: Swabs from 173 lungs, 158 palatine tonsils and 82 nasal passages of pigs at two abattoirs in New Zealand were cultured for P. multocida using conventional techniques, and isolated colonies were subjected to biochemical tests for identi- fi cation of biovars. Somatic serotyping was conducted using an agar gel immunodiffusion (AGID) test. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays were used to confi rm phenotypic identifi cation of colonies using species-specifi c primers, capsule type using serogroup-specifi c primers and multiplex PCR, and to test for the presence of HSB and toxA genes. RESULTS: Pasteurella multocida was isolated from 11/173 (6.4%) lung, 32/158 (20.2%) palatine tonsil and 5/82 (6.1 %) nasal swab samples, a total of 48 isolates from 413 samples (11.6%). Isolation rates per farm ranged from 1���53% of tissue samples collected from pigs 5���6 months of age. On phenotypic characterisation, isolates were allocated to seven main biovars, viz 1, 2, 3, 5, 9, 12, and a dulcitol-negative variant of Biovar 8, the majority (30/48) being Biovar 3. Of the 42 isolates for which somatic serotyping was conducted, 10% were Serovar 1, 79% were Serovar 3, 2% were Serovar 6,1, 2% were Serovar 12, and 7% could not be typed. All 48 isolates were confi rmed as P. multocida using a species-specifi c PCR. In the capsular multiplex PCR, 92% of isolates were Capsular (Cap) type A, 2% were Cap D, and 6% could not be typed. None of the samples were positive for the HSB or toxA genes. CONCLUSION: Serovars or capsular types of P. multocida associated with HS or PAR in pigs were not detected. Establishment of species-specifi c, capsular and toxin PCR assays allowed the rapid screening of isolates of P. multocida, while serotyping provided an additional tool for epidemiological and tracing purposes.

Comparison of the indirect haemagglutination and gel diffusion test for serotyping Haemophilus parasuis

The aim of this study was to compare the use of indirect haemagglutination (IHA) and gel diffusion (GD) tests for serotyping Haemophilus parasuis by the Kielstein-Rapp-Gabrielson scheme. All 15 serovar reference strains, 72 Australian field isolates, nine Chinese field isolates, and seven isolates from seven experimentally infected pigs were evaluated with both tests. With the IHA test, 14 of the 15 reference strains were correctly serotyped ��� with serovar 10 failing to give a titre with serovar 10 antiserum. In the GD test, 13 reference strains were correctly serotyped ��� with antigen from serovars 7 and 8 failing to react with any antiserum. The IHA methodology serotyped a total of 45 of 81 field isolates while the GD methodology serotyped a total of 48 isolates. For 29 isolates, the GD and IHA methods gave discordant results. It was concluded that the IHA is a good additional test for the serotyping of H. parasuis by the KRG scheme if the GD methodology fails to provide a result or shows unusual cross-reactions.

New microsatellite loci for Carcharhinid sharks (Carcharhinus tilstoni and C. sorrah) and their cross-amplification in other shark species

Twelve microsatellite DNA markers were isolated in the spot-tail shark (Carcharhinus sorrah) and nine were isolated in Australian black-tip shark (Carcharhinus tilstoni). These loci plus 18 others developed for sharks from the genera Negaprion, Ginglymostoma, Carcharodon and Isurus were tested for amplification success on four species of Carcharhinus (including C. sorrah and C. tilstoni) and four other species representing three diverse families. Cross-amplification was most common within families. Five loci were subsequently tested for polymorphism on 50 C. sorrah and 60 C. tilstoni. The number of alleles per locus was two to 24 and the average heterozygosity was 0.54 (range 0.16-0.87) for C. sorrah and 0.64 (range 0.44-0.78) for C. tilstoni. These loci may be useful tools for genetic analyses of the Carcharhinidae.

Validation of a Competitive Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay for Detection of Babesia bigemina Antibodies in Cattle

A competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (cELISA) based on a broadly conserved, species-specific, B-cell epitope within the C terminus of Babesia bigemina rhoptry-associated protein 1a was validated for international use. Receiver operating characteristic analysis revealed 16% inhibition as the threshold for a negative result, with an associated specificity of 98.3% and sensitivity of 94.7%. Increasing the threshold to 21% increased the specificity to 100% but modestly decreased the sensitivity to 87.2%. By using 21% inhibition, the positive predictive values ranged from 90.7% (10% prevalence) to 100% (95% prevalence) and the negative predictive values ranged from 97.0% (10% prevalence) to 48.2% (95% prevalence). The assay was able to detect serum antibody as early as 7 days after intravenous inoculation. The cELISA was distributed to five different laboratories along with a reference set of 100 defined bovine serum samples, including known positive, known negative, and field samples. The pairwise concordance among the five laboratories ranged from 100% to 97%, and all kappa values were above 0.8, indicating a high degree of reliability. Overall, the cELISA appears to have the attributes necessary for international application.

The introduction and release of Chiasmia inconspicua and C. assimilis (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) for the biological control of Acacia nilotica in Australia

Two geometrid moths Chiasmia inconspicua and Chiasmia assimilis, identified as potential biological control agents for prickly acacia Acacia nilotica subsp. indica, were collected in Kenya and imported into quarantine facilities in Australia where laboratory cultures were established. Aspects of the biologies of both insects were studied and CLIMEX�� models indicating the climatically favourable areas of Australia were developed. Host range tests were conducted using an approved test list of 74 plant species and no-choice tests of neonate larvae placed on both cut foliage and potted plants. C. inconspicua developed through to adult on prickly acacia and, in small numbers, Acacia pulchella. C. assimilis developed through to adult on prickly acacia and also in very small numbers on A. pulchella, A. deanei, A. decurrens, and A. mearnsii. In all experiments, the response on prickly acacia could be clearly differentiated from the responses on the non-target species. Both insects were approved for release in Australia. Over a three-year period releases were made at multiple sites in north Queensland, almost all in inland areas. There was no evidence of either insect's establishment and both colonies were terminated. A new colony of C. assimilis was subsequently established from insects collected in South Africa and releases of C. assimilis from this new colony were made into coastal and inland infestations of prickly acacia. Establishment was rapid at one coastal site and the insect quickly spread to other infestations. Establishment at one inland area was also confirmed in early 2006. The establishment in coastal areas supported a CLIMEX model that indicated that the climate of coastal areas was more suitable than inland areas.

CIMMYT-selected derived synthetic bread wheats for rainfed environments: Yield evaluation in Mexico and Australia.

Synthetic backcrossed-derived bread wheats (SBWs) from CIMMYT were grown in the Northwest of Mexico at Centro de Investigaciones Agr��colas del Noroeste (CIANO) and sites across Australia during three seasons. During three consecutive years Australia received ���shipments��� of different SBWs from CIMMYT for evaluation. A different set of lines was evaluated each season, as new materials became available from the CIMMYT crop enhancement program. These consisted of approximately 100 advanced lines (F7) per year. SBWs had been top and backcrossed to CIMMYT cultivars in the first two shipments and to Australian wheat cultivars in the third one. At CIANO, the SBWs were trialled under receding soil moisture conditions. We evaluated both the performance of each line across all environments and the genotype-by-environment interaction using an analysis that fits a multiplicative mixed model, adjusted for spatial field trends. Data were organised in three groups of multienvironment trials (MET) containing germplasm from shipment 1 (METShip1), 2 (METShip2), and 3 (METShip3), respectively. Large components of variance for the genotype �� environment interaction were found for each MET analysis, due to the diversity of environments included and the limited replication over years (only in METShip2, lines were tested over 2 years). The average percentage of genetic variance explained by the factor analytic models with two factors was 50.3% for METShip1, 46.7% for METShip2, and 48.7% for METShip3. Yield comparison focused only on lines that were present in all locations within a METShip, or ���core��� SBWs. A number of core SBWs, crossed to both Australian and CIMMYT backgrounds, outperformed the local benchmark checks at sites from the northern end of the Australian wheat belt, with reduced success at more southern locations. In general, lines that succeeded in the north were different from those in the south. The moderate positive genetic correlation between CIANO and locations in the northern wheat growing region likely reflects similarities in average temperature during flowering, high evaporative demand, and a short flowering interval. We are currently studying attributes of this germplasm that may contribute to adaptation, with the aim of improving the selection process in both Mexico and Australia.

Stakeholders' assessment of welfare indicators for sheep and cattle exported by sea from Australia

An adaptive conjoint analysis was use to evaluate stakeholders' opinion of welfare indicators for ship-transported sheep and cattle, both onboard and in pre-export depots. In consultations with two nominees of each identified stakeholder group (government officials, animal welfare representatives, animal scientists, stockpersons, producers/pre-export depot operators, exporters/ship owners and veterinarians), 18 potential indicators were identified Three levels were assigned to each using industry statistics and expert opinion, representing those observed on the best and worst 5% of voyages and an intermediate value. A computer-based questionnaire was completed by 135 stakeholders (48% of those invited). All indicators were ranked by respondents in the assigned order, except fodder intake, in which case providing the amount necessary to maintain bodyweight was rated better than over or underfeeding, and time in the pre-export assembly depot, in which case 5 days was rated better than 0 or 10 days. The respective Importance Values (a relative rating given by the respondent) for each indicator were, in order of declining importance: mortality (8.6%), clinical disease incidence (8.2%), respiration rate (6.8%), space allowance (6.2%), ammonia levels (6.1%), weight change (6.0%), wet bulb temperature (6.0%), time in assembly depot (5.4%), percentage of animals in hospital pen (5.4%), fodder intake (5.2%), stress-related metabolites (5.0%), percentage of feeding trough utilised (5.0%), injuries (4.8%), percentage of animals able to access food troughs at any one time (4.8%), percentage of animals lying down (4.7%), cortisol concentration (4.5Y.), noise (3.9y.), and photoperiod (3.4%). The different stakeholder groups were relatively consistent in their ranking of the indicators, with all groups nominating the some top two and at least five of the top seven indicators. Some of the top indicators, in particular mortality, disease incidence and temperature, are already recorded in the Australian industry, but the study identified potential new welfare indicators for exported livestock, such as space allowance and ammonia concentration, which could be used to improve welfare standards if validated by scientific data. The top indicators would also be useful worldwide for countries engaging in long distance sea transport of livestock.

Response of minimally processed carambola to chemical treatments and low-oxygen atmospheres

Fresh-cut carambola (Averrhoa carambola L.) has limited marketability due to cut-surface browning. The effect of chemical treatments (ascorbic acid, citric acid and Ca-EDTA), controlled atmosphere (0.4-20.3% O2) and the association of these processes was investigated. Post-cutting dip and low-oxygen atmospheres did not prevent discoloration or improve sensory and physicochemical parameters. However, ascorbic acid (0.5% and 1%) dips reduced polyphenol oxidase (PPO) activity during storage at 4.5 ��C, with 1% ascorbic acid inducing the lowest activity. Although cut-surface browning of 'Maha' slices was not relevant, carambola slices treated with 1% ascorbic acid in association with 0.4% oxygen did not present significant browning or loss of visual quality for up to 12 days, 3 days longer than low oxygen alone (0.4% O2), thus, their quality can be significantly improved by combining both treatments.

Modelling climatic risks of aflatoxin contamination in maize

Aflatoxins are highly carcinogenic mycotoxins produced by two fungi, Aspergillus flavus and A. parasiticus, under specific moisture and temperature conditions before harvest and/or during storage of a wide range of crops including maize. Modelling of interactions between host plant and environment during the season can enable quantification of preharvest aflatoxin risk and its potential management. A model was developed to quantify climatic risks of aflatoxin contamination in maize using principles previously used for peanuts. The model outputs an aflatoxin risk index in response to seasonal temperature and soil moisture during the maize grain filling period using the APSIM's maize module. The model performed well in simulating climatic risk of aflatoxin contamination in maize as indicated by a significant R2 (P ��� 0.01) between aflatoxin risk index and the measured aflatoxin B1 in crop samples, which was 0.69 for a range of rainfed Australian locations and 0.62 when irrigated locations were also included in the analysis. The model was further applied to determine probabilities of exceeding a given aflatoxin risk in four non-irrigated maize growing locations of Queensland using 106 years of historical climatic data. Locations with both dry and hot climates had a much higher probability of higher aflatoxin risk compared with locations having either dry or hot conditions alone. Scenario analysis suggested that under non-irrigated conditions the risk of aflatoxin contamination could be minimised by adjusting sowing time or selecting an appropriate hybrid to better match the grain filling period to coincide with lower temperature and water stress conditions.

Sorghum ergot can develop without local Claviceps africana inoculum from nearby infected plants

Batches of glasshouse-grown flowering sorghum plants were placed in circular plots for 24 h at two field sites in southeast Queensland, Australia on 38 occasions in 2003 and 2004, to trap aerial inoculum of Claviceps africana. Plants were located 20-200 m from the centre of the plots. Batches of sorghum plants with secondary conidia of C. africana on inoculated spikelets were placed at the centre of each plot on some dates as a local point source of inoculum. Plants exposed to field inoculum were returned to a glasshouse, incubated at near-100% relative humidity for 48 h and then at ambient relative humidity for another week before counting infected spikelets to estimate pathogen dispersal. Three times as many spikelets became infected when inoculum was present within 200 m of trap plants, but infected spikelets did not decline with increasing distance from local source within the 200 m. Spikelets also became infected on all 10 dates when plants were exposed without a local source of infected plants, indicating that infection can occur from conidia surviving in the atmosphere. In 2005, when trap plants were placed at 14 locations along a 280 km route, infected spikelets diminished with increasing distance from sorghum paddocks and infection was sporadic for distances over 1 km. Multiple regression analysis showed significant influence of moisture related weather variables on inoculum dispersal. Results suggest that sanitation measures can help reduce ergot severity at the local level, but sustainable management will require better understanding of long-distance dispersal of C. africana inoculum.

Architectural modelling of maize under water stress

Two field experiments using maize (Pioneer 31H50) and three watering regimes [(i) irrigated for the whole crop cycle, until anthesis, (ii) not at all (experiment 1) and (iii) fully irrigated and rain grown for the whole crop cycle (experiment 2)] were conducted at Gatton, Australia, during the 2003-04 season. Data on crop ontogeny, leaf, sheath and internode lengths and leaf width, and senescence were collected at 1- to 3-day intervals. A glasshouse experiment during 2003 quantified the responses of leaf shape and leaf presentation to various levels of water stress. Data from experiment 1 were used to modify and parameterise an architectural model of maize (ADEL-Maize) to incorporate the impact of water stress on maize canopy characteristics. The modified model produced accurate fitted values for experiment 1 for final leaf area and plant height, but values during development for leaf area were lower than observed data. Crop duration was reasonably well fitted and differences between the fully irrigated and rain-grown crops were accurately predicted. Final representations of maize crop canopies were realistic. Possible explanations for low values of leaf area are provided. The model requires further development using data from the glasshouse study and before being validated using data from experiment 2 and other independent data. It will then be used to extend functionality in architectural models of maize. With further research and development, the model should be particularly useful in examining the response of maize production to water stress including improved prediction of total biomass and grain yield. This will facilitate improved simulation of plant growth and development processes allowing investigation of genotype by environment interactions under conditions of suboptimal water supply.