A spatially explicit multi-competitor coexistence model of penaeid (shrimp) distribution on the Australian Great Barrier Reef

A spatially explicit multi-competitor coexistence model was developed for meta-populations of prawns (shrimp) occupying habitat patches across the Great Barrier Reef, where dispersal was localised and dispersal rates varied between species. Prawns were modelled as individuals moving to and from patches or cells according to pre-set decision rules. The landscape was simulated as a matrix of cells with each cell having a spatially explicit survival index for each species. Mixed species prawn assemblages moved over this simplified spatially explicit landscape. A low level of chronic random environmental disturbance was assumed (cyclone and tropical storm damage) with additional acute spatially confined disturbance due to commercial trawling, modelled as an increase in mortality affecting inter-specific competition. The general form of the results was for increased disturbance to favour good-colonising "generalist" species at the expense of good-competitor "specialists". Increasing fishing mortality (local patch extinctions) combined with poor colonising ability resulted in low equilibrium abundance for even the best competitor, while in the same circumstances the poorest competitor but best coloniser could have the highest equilibrium abundance. This mimics the switch from high-value prawn species to lower-value prawn species as trawl effort increases, reflected in historic catch and effort logbook data and reported anecdotaly from the north Queensland trawl fleet. To match the observed distribution and behaviour of prawn assemblages, a combination inter-species competition, a spatially explicit landscape, and a defined pattern of disturbance (trawling) was required. Modelling this combination could simulate not only general trends in spatial distribution of each of prawn species but also localised concentrations observed in the survey data

Population genetic structure of the brown tiger prawn, Penaeus esculentus, in tropical northern Australia

Eight polymorphic microsatellite loci were analysed in six population samples from four locations of the Australian endemic brown tiger prawn, Penaeus esculentus. Tests of Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium were generally in accord with expectations, with only one locus, in two samples, showing significant deviations. Three samples were taken in different years from the Exmouth Gulf. These showed no significant heterogeneity, and it was concluded that they were from a single panmictic population. A sample from Shark Bay, also on the west coast of Australia, showed barely detectable differentiation from Exmouth Gulf (F (ST) = 0 to 0.0014). A northeast sample from the Gulf of Carpentaria showed low (F (ST) = 0.008) but significant differentiation from Moreton Bay, on the east coast. However, Exmouth Gulf/Shark Bay samples were well differentiated from the Gulf of Carpentaria/Moreton Bay (F (ST) = 0.047-0.063). The data do not fit a simple isolation by distance model. It is postulated that the east-west differentiation largely reflects the isolation of east and west coast populations that occurred at the last glacial maximum when there was a land bridge between north-eastern Australia and New Guinea.

Availability of soil potassium and diagnostic soil tests

Thirty-seven surface (0-0.10 or 0-0.20 m) soils covering a wide range of soil types (16 Vertosols, 6 Ferrosols, 6 Dermosols, 4 Hydrosols, 2 Kandosols, 1 Sodosol, 1 Rudosol, and 1 Chromosol) were exhaustively cropped in 2 glasshouse experiments. The test species were Panicum maximum cv. Green Panic in Experiment A and Avena sativa cv. Barcoo in Experiment B. Successive forage harvests were taken until the plants could no longer grow in most soils because of severe potassium (K) deficiency. Soil samples were taken prior to cropping and after the final harvest in both experiments, and also after the initial harvest in Experiment B. Samples were analysed for solution K, exchangeable K (Exch K), tetraphenyl borate extractable K for extraction periods of 15 min (TBK15) and 60 min (TBK60), and boiling nitric acid extractable K (Nitric K). Inter-correlations between the initial levels of the various soil K parameters indicated that the following pools were in sequential equilibrium: solution K, Exch K, fast release fixed K [estimated as (TBK15-Exch K)], and slow release fixed K [estimated as (TBK60-TBK15)]. Structural K [estimated as (Nitric K-TBK60)] was not correlated with any of the other pools. However, following exhaustive drawdown of soil K by cropping, structural K became correlated with solution K, suggesting dissolution of K minerals when solution K was low. The change in the various K pools following cropping was correlated with K uptake at Harvest 1 ( Experiment B only) and cumulative K uptake ( both experiments). The change in Exch K for 30 soils was linearly related to cumulative K uptake (r = 0.98), although on average, K uptake was 35% higher than the change in Exch K. For the remaining 7 soils, K uptake considerably exceeded the change in Exch K. However, the changes in TBK15 and TBK60 were both highly linearly correlated with K uptake across all soils (r = 0.95 and 0.98, respectively). The slopes of the regression lines were not significantly different from unity, and the y-axis intercepts were very small. These results indicate that the plant is removing K from the TBK pool. Although the change in Exch K did not consistently equate with K uptake across all soils, initial Exch K was highly correlated with K uptake (r = 0.99) if one Vertosol was omitted. Exchangeable K is therefore a satisfactory diagnostic indicator of soil K status for the current crop. However, the change in Exch K following K uptake is soil-dependent, and many soils with large amounts of TBK relative to Exch K were able to buffer changes in Exch K. These soils tended to be Vertosols occurring on floodplains. In contrast, 5 soils (a Dermosol, a Rudosol, a Kandosol, and 2 Hydrosols) with large amounts of TBK did not buffer decreases in Exch K caused by K uptake, indicating that the TBK pool in these soils was unavailable to plants under the conditions of these experiments. It is likely that K fertiliser recommendations will need to take account of whether the soil has TBK reserves, and the availability of these reserves, when deciding rates required to raise exchangeable K status to adequate levels.

Evidence of a latitudinal gradient in spider diversity in Australian cotton

The most common explanation for species diversity increasing towards the tropics is the corresponding increase in habitats (spatial heterogeneity). Consequently, a monoculture (like cotton in Australia) which is grown along a latitudinal gradient, should have the same degree of species diversity throughout its range. We tested to see if diversity in a dominant cotton community (spiders) changed with latitude, and if the community was structurally identical in different parts of Australia. We sampled seven sites extending over 20 degrees of latitude. At each site we sampled 1-3 fields 3-5 times during the cotton growing season using pitfall traps and beatsheets, recording all the spiders collected to family. We found that spider communities in cotton are diverse, including a large range of foraging guilds, making them suitable for a conservation biological control programme. We also found that spider diversity increased from high to low latitudes, and the communities were different, even though the spiders were in the same monocultural habitat. Spider beatsheet communities around Australia were dominated by different families, and responded differently to seasonal changes, indicating that different pest groups would be targeted at different locations. These results show that diversity can increase from high to low latitudes, even if spatial heterogeneity is held constant, and that other factors external to the cotton crop are influencing spider species composition. Other models which may account for the latitudinal gradient, such as non-equilibrium regional processes, are discussed.

Fifteen microsatellite loci for the jungle perch, Kuhlia rupestris

We developed and optimized 15 polymorphic microsatellite loci in the jungle perch, Kuhlia rupestris. Loci were screened in a single population (n = 24) from Fraser Island, Queensland, Australia. Number of alleles per locus ranged from 3 to 19 and observed heterozygosity from 0.25 to 1. No significant linkage disequilibrium was detected between any pair of loci. Genotype proportions for these loci in the population sampled were in Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium.

Relocation of Intensive Agriculture to Northern Australia: The Case of the Rice Industry

Development of new agricultural industries in northern Australia is seen as a way to provide food security in the face of reduced water availability in existing regions in the south. This report aims to identify some of the possible economic consequences of developing a rice industry in the Burdekin region, while there is a reduction of output in the Riverina. Annual rice production in the Riverina peaked at 1.7 M tonnes, but the long-term outlook, given climate change impacts on that region and government water buy-backs, is more likely to be less than 800,000 tonnes. Growers are highly efficient water users by international standards, but the ability to offset an anticipated reduction in water availability through further efficiency gains is limited. In recent years growers in the Riverina have diversified their farms to a greater extent and secondary production systems include beef, sheep and wheat. Production in north Queensland is in its infancy, but a potentially suitable farming system has been developed by including rice within the sugarcane system without competition and in fact contributing to the production of sugar by increasing yields and controlling weeds. The economic outcomes are estimated a large scale, dynamic, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the world economy (Tasman Global), scaled down to regional level. CGE models mimic the workings of the economy through a system of interdependent behavioural and accounting equations which are linked to an input-output database. When an economic shock or change is applied to a model, each of the markets adjusts according to the set of behavioural parameters which are underpinned by economic theory. In this study the model is driven by reducing production in the Riverina in accordance with relationships found between water availability and the production of rice and replacement by other crops and by increasing ride production in the Burdekin. Three scenarios were considered: • Scenario 1: Rice is grown using the fallow period between the last ratoon crop of sugarcane and the new planting. In this scenario there is no competition between rice and sugarcane • Scenario 2: Rice displaces sugarcane production • Scenario 3: Rice is grown on additional land and does not compete with sugarcane. Two time periods were used, 2030 and 2070, which are the conventional time points to consider climate change impacts. Under scenario 1, real economic output declines in the Riverina by $45 million in 2030 and by $139 million in 2070. This is only partially offset by the increased real economic output in the Burdekin of $35 million and $131 million respectively.

Constructing a new individual-based model of phosphine resistance in lesser grain borer (Rhyzopertha dominica): do we need to include two loci rather than one?

In this article, we describe and compare two individual-based models constructed to investigate how genetic factors influence the development of phosphine resistance in lesser grain borer (R. dominica). One model is based on the simplifying assumption that resistance is conferred by alleles at a single locus, while the other is based on the more realistic assumption that resistance is conferred by alleles at two separate loci. We simulated the population dynamic of R. dominica in the absence of phosphine fumigation, and under high and low dose phosphine treatments, and found important differences between the predictions of the two models in all three cases. In the absence of fumigation, starting from the same initial frequencies of genotypes, the two models tended to different stable frequencies, although both reached Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. The one-locus model exaggerated the equilibrium proportion of strongly resistant beetles by 3.6 times, compared to the aggregated predictions of the two-locus model. Under a low dose treatment the one-locus model overestimated the proportion of strongly resistant individuals within the population and underestimated the total population numbers compared to the two-locus model. These results show the importance of basing resistance evolution models on realistic genetics and that using oversimplified one-locus models to develop pest control strategies runs the risk of not correctly identifying tactics to minimise the incidence of pest infestation.

Modelling interactions between farm-level structural adjustment and a regional economy: A case of the Australian rice industry

Climate change and on-going water policy reforms will likely contribute to on-farm and regional structural adjustment in Australia. This paper gathers empirical evidence of farm-level structural adjustments and integrates these with a regional equilibrium model to investigate sectoral and regional impacts of climate change and recent water use policy on rice industry. We find strong evidence of adjustments to the farming system, enabled by existing diversity in on-farm production. A further loss of water with additional pressures to adopt less intensive and larger-scale farming, will however reduce the net number of farm businesses, which may affect regional rice production. The results from a regional CGE model show impacts on the regional economy over and above the direct cost of the environmental water, although a net reduction in real economic output and real income is partially offset by gains in rest of the Australia through the reallocation or resources. There is some interest within the industry and from potential new corporate entrants in the relocation of some rice production to the north. However, strong government support would be crucial to implement such relocation.

Reconfiguring agriculture through the relocation of production systems for water, environment and food security under climate change

The prospect of climate change has revived both fears of food insecurity and its corollary, market opportunities for agricultural production. In Australia, with its long history of state-sponsored agricultural development, there is renewed interest in the agricultural development of tropical and sub-tropical northern regions. Climate projections suggest that there will be less water available to the main irrigation systems of the eastern central and southern regions of Australia, while net rainfall could be sustained or even increase in the northern areas. Hence, there could be more intensive use of northern agricultural areas, with the relocation of some production of economically important commodities such as vegetables, rice and cotton. The problem is that the expansion of cropping in northern Australia has been constrained by agronomic and economic considerations. The present paper examines the economics, at both farm and regional level, of relocating some cotton production from the east-central irrigation areas to the north where there is an existing irrigation scheme together with some industry and individual interest in such relocation. Integrated modelling and expert knowledge are used to examine this example of prospective climate change adaptation. Farm-level simulations show that without adaptation, overall gross margins will decrease under a combination of climate change and reduction in water availability. A dynamic regional Computable General Equilibrium model is used to explore two scenarios of relocating cotton production from south east Queensland, to sugar-dominated areas in northern Queensland. Overall, an increase in real economic output and real income was realized when some cotton production was relocated to sugar cane fallow land/new land. There were, however, large negative effects on regional economies where cotton production displaced sugar cane. It is concluded that even excluding the agronomic uncertainties, which are not examined here, there is unlikely to be significant market-driven relocation of cotton production.

An Investigation of Environmental Conditions Experienced During the Life of High Value Wood Components and Products

Australian forest industries have a long history of export trade of a wide range of products from woodchips(for paper manufacturing), sandalwood (essential oils, carving and incense) to high value musical instruments, flooring and outdoor furniture. For the high value group, fluctuating environmental conditions brought on by changes in mperature and relative humidity, can lead to performance problems due to consequential swelling, shrinkage and/or distortion of the wood elements. A survey determined the types of value-added products exported, including species and dimensions packaging used and export markets. Data loggers were installed with shipments to monitor temperature and relative humidity conditions. These data were converted to timber equilibrium moisture content values to provide an indication of the environment that the wood elements would be acclimatising to. The results of the initial survey indicated that primary high value wood export products included guitars, flooring, decking and outdoor furniture. The destination markets were mainly located in the northern hemisphere, particularly the United States of America, China, Hong Kong, Europe including the United Kingdom), Japan, Korea and the Middle East. Other regions importing Australian-made wooden articles were south-east Asia, New Zealand and South Africa. Different timber species have differing rates of swelling and shrinkage, so the types of timber were also recorded during the survey. Results from this work determined that the major species were ash-type eucalypts from south-eastern Australia (commonly referred to in the market as Tasmanian oak), jarrah from Western Australia, spotted gum, hoop pine, white cypress, black butt, brush box and Sydney blue gum from Queensland and New South Wales. The environmental conditions data indicated that microclimates in shipping containers can fluctuate extensively during shipping. Conditions at the time of manufacturing were usually between 10 and 12% equilibrium moisture content, however conditions during shipping could range from 5 (very dry) to 20% (very humid). The packaging systems incorporated were reported to be efficient at protecting the wooden articles from damage during transit. The research highlighted the potential risk for wood components to ‘move’ in response to periods of drier or more humid conditions than those at the time of manufacturing, and the importance of engineering a packaging system that can account for the environmental conditions experienced in shipping containers. Examples of potential dimensional changes in wooden components were calculated based on published unit shrinkage data for key species and the climatic data returned from the logging equipment. The information highlighted the importance of good design to account for possible timber movement during shipping. A timber movement calculator was developed to allow designers to input component species, dimensions, site of manufacture and destination, to see validate their product design. This calculator forms part of the free interactive website www.timbers.com.au.