Climate change impacts on northern Australian rangeland livestock carrying capacity: a review of issues

Grazing is a major land use in Australia's rangelands. The 'safe' livestock carrying capacity (LCC) required to maintain resource condition is strongly dependent on climate. We reviewed: the approaches for quantifying LCC; current trends in climate and their effect on components of the grazing system; implications of the 'best estimates' of climate change projections for LCC; the agreement and disagreement between the current trends and projections; and the adequacy of current models of forage production in simulating the impact of climate change. We report the results of a sensitivity study of climate change impacts on forage production across the rangelands, and we discuss the more general issues facing grazing enterprises associated with climate change, such as 'known uncertainties' and adaptation responses (e.g. use of climate risk assessment). We found that the method of quantifying LCC from a combination of estimates (simulations) of long-term (>30 years) forage production and successful grazier experience has been well tested across northern Australian rangelands with different climatic regions. This methodology provides a sound base for the assessment of climate change impacts, even though there are many identified gaps in knowledge. The evaluation of current trends indicated substantial differences in the trends of annual rainfall (and simulated forage production) across Australian rangelands with general increases in most of western Australian rangelands ( including northern regions of the Northern Territory) and decreases in eastern Australian rangelands and south-western Western Australia. Some of the projected changes in rainfall and temperature appear small compared with year-to-year variability. Nevertheless, the impacts on rangeland production systems are expected to be important in terms of required managerial and enterprise adaptations. Some important aspects of climate systems science remain unresolved, and we suggest that a risk-averse approach to rangeland management, based on the 'best estimate' projections, in combination with appropriate responses to short-term (1-5 years) climate variability, would reduce the risk of resource degradation. Climate change projections - including changes in rainfall, temperature, carbon dioxide and other climatic variables - if realised, are likely to affect forage and animal production, and ecosystem functioning. The major known uncertainties in quantifying climate change impacts are: (i) carbon dioxide effects on forage production, quality, nutrient cycling and competition between life forms (e.g. grass, shrubs and trees); and (ii) the future role of woody plants including effects of. re, climatic extremes and management for carbon storage. In a simple example of simulating climate change impacts on forage production, we found that increased temperature (3 degrees C) was likely to result in a decrease in forage production for most rangeland locations (e. g. -21% calculated as an unweighted average across 90 locations). The increase in temperature exacerbated or reduced the effects of a 10% decrease/increase in rainfall respectively (-33% or -9%). Estimates of the beneficial effects of increased CO2 (from 350 to 650 ppm) on forage production and water use efficiency indicated enhanced forage production (+26%). The increase was approximately equivalent to the decline in forage production associated with a 3 degrees C temperature increase. The large magnitude of these opposing effects emphasised the importance of the uncertainties in quantifying the impacts of these components of climate change. We anticipate decreases in LCC given that the 'best estimate' of climate change across the rangelands is for a decline (or little change) in rainfall and an increase in temperature. As a consequence, we suggest that public policy have regard for: the implications for livestock enterprises, regional communities, potential resource damage, animal welfare and human distress. However, the capability to quantify these warnings is yet to be developed and this important task remains as a challenge for rangeland and climate systems science.

The effect of data sources and quality on the predictive capacity of CLIMEX models: an assessment of Teleonemia scrupulosa and Octotoma scabripennis for the biocontrol of Lantana camara in Australia

Understanding the effects of different types and quality of data on bioclimatic modeling predictions is vital to ascertaining the value of existing models, and to improving future models. Bioclimatic models were constructed using the CLIMEX program, using different data types – seasonal dynamics, geographic (overseas) distribution, and a combination of the two – for two biological control agents for the major weed Lantana camara L. in Australia. The models for one agent, Teleonemia scrupulosa Stål (Hemiptera:Tingidae) were based on a higher quality and quantity of data than the models for the other agent, Octotoma scabripennis Guérin-Méneville (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae). Predictions of the geographic distribution for Australia showed that T. scrupulosa models exhibited greater accuracy with a progressive improvement from seasonal dynamics data, to the model based on overseas distribution, and finally the model combining the two data types. In contrast, O. scabripennis models were of low accuracy, and showed no clear trends across the various model types. These case studies demonstrate the importance of high quality data for developing models, and of supplementing distributional data with species seasonal dynamics data wherever possible. Seasonal dynamics data allows the modeller to focus on the species response to climatic trends, while distributional data enables easier fitting of stress parameters by restricting the species envelope to the described distribution. It is apparent that CLIMEX models based on low quality seasonal dynamics data, together with a small quantity of distributional data, are of minimal value in predicting the spatial extent of species distribution.

Wet-dry cycling extends seed persistence by re-instating antioxidant capacity

Seeds in the field experience wet-dry cycling that is akin to the well-studied commercial process of seed priming in which seeds are hydrated and then re-dried to standardise their germination characteristics. To investigate whether the persistence (defined as in situ longevity) and antioxidant capacity of seeds are influenced by wet-dry cycling, seeds of the global agronomic weed Avena sterilis ssp. ludoviciana were subjected to (1) controlled ageing at 60% relative humidity and 53.5°C for 31 days, (2) controlled ageing then priming, or (3) ageing in the field in three soils for 21 months. Changes in seed viability (total germination), mean germination time, seedling vigour (mean seedling length), and the concentrations of the glutathione (GSH) / glutathione disulphide (GSSG) redox couple were recorded over time. As controlled-aged seeds lost viability, GSH levels declined and the relative proportion of GSSG contributing to total glutathione increased, indicative of a failing antioxidant capacity. Subjecting seeds that were aged under controlled conditions to a wet-dry cycle (to −1 MPa) prevented viability loss and increased GSH levels. Field-aged seeds that underwent numerous wet-dry cycles due to natural rainfall maintained high viability and high GSH levels. Thus wet-dry cycles in the field may enhance seed longevity and persistence coincident with re-synthesis of protective compounds such as GSH.

A review of factors that impact on the capacity of beef cattle females to conceive, maintain a pregnancy and wean a calf - implications for reproductive efficiency in northern Australia.

A review of factors that may impact on the capacity of beef cattle females, grazing semi-extensive to extensive pastures in northern Australia, to conceive, maintain a pregnancy and wean a calf was conducted. Pregnancy and weaning rates have generally been used to measure the reproductive performance of herds. However, this review recognises that reproductive efficiency and the general measures associated with it more effectively describe the economic performance of beef cattle enterprises. More specifically, reproductive efficiency is influenced by (1) pregnancy rate which is influenced by (i) age at puberty; (ii) duration of post-partum anoestrus; (iii) fertilisation failure and (iv) embryo survival; while (2) weight by number of calves per breeding female retained for mating is influenced by (i) cow survival; (ii) foetal survival; and (iii) calf survival; and (3) overall lifetime calf weight weaned per mating. These measures of reproductive efficiency are discussed in depth. Further, a range of infectious and non-infectious factors, namely, environmental, physiological, breed and genetic factors and their impact on these stages of the reproductive cycle are investigated and implications for the northern Australian beef industry are discussed. Finally, conclusions and recommendations to minimise reproductive inefficiencies based on current knowledge are presented.

Improving added value and small medium enterprises capacity in the utilisation of plantation timber for furniture production in Jepara region

Improving added value and Small Medium Enterprises capacity in the utilisation of plantation timber for furniture production in Jepara region of Indonesia: improving recovery, design, manufacturing, R&D and training capacities.

Biosecurity capacity building for the Australian avocado industry

Project aims to develop diagnostic capacity for laurel wilt and associated ambrosia beetle in Australia.

Climate Q - Develop capacity to adapt to climate change in Queensland

Aims to build adaptive capacity within Qld's mixed farming (cropping/beef) sector.

CRC20093 Increasing Diagnostic Capacity in Thailand

Accurate identification of pests is essential for practically all aspects of agricultural development and is critical to the operations of biosecurity that safeguard agricultural integrity and facilitate trade. Diagnostic capability is at the forefront of and complementary to, activities such as border protection, incursion management, surveillance and pest and disease certification. The efficiency of a biosecurity system therefore depends largely on the feedback between these activities and diagnostics. Australian scientists will train Thai scientists in diagnostics and surveillance to provide the Thai DOA with skills that will aid in the development of a Thai Diagnostic Network. The skills will be taught using a range of pests, including some which have particular biosecurity importance for both Australia and Thailand such as citrus canker, potato viruses and fruit flies.

Development of diagnotic capacity for Cotton Leaf Roll Virus from Thailand

Viral diseases of cotton are of economic significance in many parts of the world and several of these remain biosecurity threats to the Australian cotton industry, including Cotton Leaf Roll Virus (CLRV) from South East Asia. The proposed project will result in a greater understanding of the field symptoms of CLRV in Thailand and diagnostic assays used for its detection. I will also determine if the diagnostic assay being developed for Brazilian CLRDV as part of the CRDC project (11-12FRP00062) may also detect Thailand CLRV. It will provide educational opportunities to increase the knowledge base of staff currently working on cotton virus research and in doing so help to protect the Australian cotton industry from incursions of exotic viruses.

Profiling of carotenoids and antioxidant capacity of microalgae from subtropical coastal and brackish waters

Carotenoids are associated with various health benefits, such as prevention of age-related macular degeneration, cataract, certain cancers, rheumatoid arthritis, muscular dystrophy and cardiovascular problems. As microalgae contain considerable amounts of carotenoids, there is a need to find species with high carotenoid content. Out of hundreds of Australian isolates, twelve microalgal species were screened for carotenoid profiles, carotenoid productivity, and in vitro antioxidant capacity (total phenolic content (TPC) and ORAC). The top four carotenoid producers at 4.68-6.88 mg/g dry weight (DW) were Dunaliella salina, Tetraselmis suecica, Isochrysis galbana, and Pavlova salina. TPC was low, with D. salina possessing the highest TPC (1.54 mg Gallic Acid Equivalents/g DW) and ORAC (577 μmol Trolox Equivalents/g DW). Results indicate that T. suecica, D. salina, P. salina and I. galbana could be further developed for commercial carotenoid production.

Australia’s present scientific capacity to progress the biological control of weeds

Australia has a very proud record of achievement in biological control of weeds and the underpinning science. From the earliest campaigns against prickly pear and lantana, weed biocontrol developed with major contributions from CSIRO and state governments to produce outstanding successes against weeds such as salvinia, rubber vine, Noogoora burr, bridal creeper and prickly pear. Maximum research activity occurred in the 1980s when some 30 scientists were working world wide on Australia’s weed problems. Activity declined gradually until the last few years when government divestment in agricultural research greatly diminished capacity. There are now approximately eight full-time scientist equivalents supporting Australia’s weed biocontrol effort. Australia may now need to adopt a team approach to tackle future major weed biological control projects.

Genomic deletions and mutations resulting in the loss of eight genes reduce the in vivo replication capacity of Meleagrid herpesvirus 1

Meleagrid herpesvirus 1 (MeHV-1 or turkey herpesvirus) has been widely used as a vaccine in commercial poultry. Initially, these vaccine applications were for the prevention of Marek’s disease resulting from Gallid herpesvirus 2 infections, while more recently MeHV-1 has been used as recombinant vector for other poultry infections. The construction of herpesvirus infectious clones that permit propagation and manipulation of the viral genome in bacterial hosts has advanced the studies of herpesviral genetics. The current study reports the construction of five MeHV-1 infectious clones. The in vitro properties of viruses recovered from these clones were indistinguishable from the parental MeHV-1. In contrast, the rescued MeHV-1 viruses were significantly attenuated when used in vivo. Complete sequencing of the infectious clones identified the absence of two regions of the MeHV-1 genome compared to the MeHV-1 reference sequence. These analyses determined the rescued viruses have seven genes, UL43, UL44, UL45, UL56, HVT071, sorf3 and US2 either partially or completely deleted. In addition, single nucleotide polymorphisms were identified in all clones compared with the MeHV-1 reference sequence. As a consequence of one of the polymorphisms identified in the UL13 gene, four of the rescued viruses were predicted to encode a serine/threonine protein kinase lacking two of three domains required for activity. Thus four of the recovered viruses have a total of eight missing or defective genes. The implications of these findings in the context of herpesvirus biology and infectious clone construction are discussed.

Water addition, evaporation and water holding capacity of poultry litter

Litter moisture content has been related to ammonia, dust and odour emissions as well as bird health and welfare. Improved understanding of the water holding properties of poultry litter as well as water additions to litter and evaporation from litter will contribute to improved litter moisture management during the meat chicken grow-out. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how management and environmental conditions over the course of a grow-out affect the volume of water A) applied to litter, B) able to be stored in litter, and C) evaporated from litter on a daily basis. The same unit of measurement has been used to enable direct comparison—litres of water per square metre of poultry shed floor area, L/m2, assuming a litter depth of 5 cm. An equation was developed to estimate the amount of water added to litter from bird excretion and drinking spillage, which are sources of regular water application to the litter. Using this equation showed that water applied to litter from these sources changes over the course of a grow-out, and can be as much as 3.2 L/m2/day. Over a 56 day grow-out, the total quantity of water added to the litter was estimated to be 104 L/m2. Litter porosity, water holding capacity and water evaporation rates from litter were measured experimentally. Litter porosity decreased and water holding capacity increased over the course of a grow-out due to manure addition. Water evaporation rates at 25 °C and 50% relative humidity ranged from 0.5 to 10 L/m2/day. Evaporation rates increased with litter moisture content and air speed. Maintaining dry litter at the peak of a grow-out is likely to be challenging because evaporation rates from dry litter may be insufficient to remove the quantity of water added to the litter on a daily basis.

Genomic deletions and mutations resulting in the loss of eight genes reduce the in vivo replication capacity of Meleagrid herpesvirus 1

Meleagrid herpesvirus 1 (MeHV-1 or turkey herpesvirus) has been widely used as a vaccine in commercial poultry. Initially, these vaccine applications were for the prevention of Marek’s disease resulting from Gallid herpesvirus 2 infections, while more recently MeHV-1 has been used as recombinant vector for other poultry infections. The construction of herpesvirus infectious clones that permit propagation and manipulation of the viral genome in bacterial hosts has advanced the studies of herpesviral genetics. The current study reports the construction of five MeHV-1 infectious clones. The in vitro properties of viruses recovered from these clones were indistinguishable from the parental MeHV-1. In contrast, the rescued MeHV-1 viruses were significantly attenuated when used in vivo. Complete sequencing of the infectious clones identified the absence of two regions of the MeHV-1 genome compared to the MeHV-1 reference sequence. These analyses determined the rescued viruses have seven genes, UL43, UL44, UL45, UL56, HVT071, sorf3 and US2 either partially or completely deleted. In addition, single nucleotide polymorphisms were identified in all clones compared with the MeHV-1 reference sequence. As a consequence of one of the polymorphisms identified in the UL13 gene, four of the rescued viruses were predicted to encode a serine/threonine protein kinase lacking two of three domains required for activity. Thus four of the recovered viruses have a total of eight missing or defective genes. The implications of these findings in the context of herpesvirus biology and infectious clone construction are discussed.