Validation of PigBal model predictions for pig manure production

PigBal is a mass balance model that uses pig diet, digestibility and production data to predict the manure solids and nutrients produced by pig herds. It has been widely used for designing piggery effluent treatment systems and sustainable reuse areas at Australian piggeries. More recently, PigBal has also been used to estimate piggery volatile solids production for assessing greenhouse gas emissions for statutory reporting purposes by government, and for evaluating the energy potential from anaerobic digestion of pig effluent. This paper has compared PigBal predictions of manure total, volatile, and fixed solids, and nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K), with manure production data generated in a replicated trial, which involved collecting manure from pigs housed in metabolic pens. Predictions of total, volatile, and fixed solids and K in the excreted manure were relatively good (combined diet R2 ≥ 0.79, modelling efficiency (EF) ≥ 0.70) whereas predictions of N and P, were generally less accurate (combined diet R2 0.56 and 0.66, EF 0.19 and –0.22, respectively). PigBal generally under-predicted lower N values while over-predicting higher values, and generally over-predicted manure P production for all diets. The most likely causes for this less accurate performance were ammonium-N volatilisation losses between manure excretion and sample analysis, and the inability of PigBal to account for higher rates of P uptake by pigs fed diets containing phytase. The outcomes of this research suggest that there is a need for further investigation and model development to enhance PigBal’s capabilities for more accurately assessing nutrient loads. However, PigBal’s satisfactory performance in predicting solids excretion demonstrates that it is suitable for assessing the methane component of greenhouse gas emission and the energy potential from anaerobic digestion of volatile solids in piggery effluent. The apparent overestimation of N and P excretion may result in conservative nutrient application rates to land and the over-prediction of the nitrous oxide component of greenhouse gas emissions.

Validation of PigBal model predictions for pig manure production

PigBal is a mass balance model that uses pig diet, digestibility and production data to predict the manure solids and nutrients produced by pig herds. It has been widely used for designing piggery effluent treatment systems and sustainable reuse areas at Australian piggeries. More recently, PigBal has also been used to estimate piggery volatile solids production for assessing greenhouse gas emissions for statutory reporting purposes by government, and for evaluating the energy potential from anaerobic digestion of pig effluent. This paper has compared PigBal predictions of manure total, volatile, and fixed solids, and nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K), with manure production data generated in a replicated trial, which involved collecting manure from pigs housed in metabolic pens. Predictions of total, volatile, and fixed solids and K in the excreted manure were relatively good (combined diet R2 ≥ 0.79, modelling efficiency (EF) ≥ 0.70) whereas predictions of N and P, were generally less accurate (combined diet R2 0.56 and 0.66, EF 0.19 and -0.22, respectively). PigBal generally under-predicted lower N values while over-predicting higher values, and generally over-predicted manure P production for all diets. The most likely causes for this less accurate performance were ammonium-N volatilisation losses between manure excretion and sample analysis, and the inability of PigBal to account for higher rates of P uptake by pigs fed diets containing phytase. The outcomes of this research suggest that there is a need for further investigation and model development to enhance PigBal's capabilities for more accurately assessing nutrient loads. However, PigBal's satisfactory performance in predicting solids excretion demonstrates that it is suitable for assessing the methane component of greenhouse gas emission and the energy potential from anaerobic digestion of volatile solids in piggery effluent. The apparent overestimation of N and P excretion may result in conservative nutrient application rates to land and the over-prediction of the nitrous oxide component of greenhouse gas emissions. © CSIRO 2016.

Bioeconomic modelling of woody regrowth carbon offset options in productive grazing systems

Agricultural land has been identified as a potential source of greenhouse gas emissions offsets through biosequestration in vegetation and soil. In the extensive grazing land of Australia, landholders may participate in the Australian Government’s Emissions Reduction Fund and create offsets by reducing woody vegetation clearing and allowing native woody plant regrowth to grow. This study used bioeconomic modelling to evaluate the trade-offs between an existing central Queensland grazing operation, which has been using repeated tree clearing to maintain pasture growth, and an alternative carbon and grazing enterprise in which tree clearing is reduced and the additional carbon sequestered in trees is sold. The results showed that ceasing clearing in favour of producing offsets produces a higher net present value over 20 years than the existing cattle enterprise at carbon prices, which are close to current (2015) market levels (~$13 t–1 CO2-e). However, by modifying key variables, relative profitability did change. Sensitivity analysis evaluated key variables, which determine the relative profitability of carbon and cattle. In order of importance these were: the carbon price, the gross margin of cattle production, the severity of the tree–grass relationship, the area of regrowth retained, the age of regrowth at the start of the project, and to a lesser extent the cost of carbon project administration, compliance and monitoring. Based on the analysis, retaining regrowth to generate carbon income may be worthwhile for cattle producers in Australia, but careful consideration needs to be given to the opportunity cost of reduced cattle income.

Resource use and greenhouse gas emissions from grain-finishing beef cattle in seven Australian feedlots: a life cycle assessment

Grain finishing of cattle has become increasingly common in Australia over the past 30 years. However, interest in the associated environmental impacts and resource use is increasing and requires detailed analysis. In this study we conducted a life cycle assessment (LCA) to investigate impacts of the grain-finishing stage for cattle in seven feedlots in eastern Australia, with a particular focus on the feedlot stage, including the impacts from producing the ration, feedlot operations, transport, and livestock emissions while cattle are in the feedlot (gate-to-gate). The functional unit was 1 kg of liveweight gain (LWG) for the feedlot stage and results are included for the full supply chain (cradle-to-gate), reported per kilogram of liveweight (LW) at the point of slaughter. Three classes of cattle produced for different markets were studied: short-fed domestic market (55–80 days on feed), mid-fed export (108–164 days on feed) and long-fed export (>300 days on feed). In the feedlot stage, mean fresh water consumption was found to vary from 171.9 to 672.6 L/kg LWG and mean stress-weighted water use ranged from 100.9 to 193.2 water stress index eq. L/kg LWG. Irrigation contributed 57–91% of total fresh water consumption with differences mainly related to the availability of irrigation water near the feedlot and the use of irrigated feed inputs in rations. Mean fossil energy demand ranged from 16.5 to 34.2 MJ lower heating values/kg LWG and arable land occupation from 18.7 to 40.5 m2/kg LWG in the feedlot stage. Mean greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the feedlot stage ranged from 4.6 to 9.5 kg CO2-e/kg LWG (excluding land use and direct land-use change emissions). Emissions were dominated by enteric methane and contributions from the production, transport and milling of feed inputs. Linear regression analysis showed that the feed conversion ratio was able to explain >86% of the variation in GHG intensity and energy demand. The feedlot stage contributed between 26% and 44% of total slaughter weight for the classes of cattle fed, whereas the contribution of this phase to resource use varied from 4% to 96% showing impacts from the finishing phase varied considerably, compared with the breeding and backgrounding. GHG emissions and total land occupation per kilogram of LWG during the grain finishing phase were lower than emissions from breeding and backgrounding, resulting in lower life-time emissions for grain-finished cattle compared with grass finishing.

Influence of climate variability and stocking strategies on greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE), production and profit of a northern Queensland beef cattle herd

Previous studies of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) from beef production systems in northern Australia have been based on models of ‘steady-state’ herd structures that do not take into account the considerable inter-annual variation in liveweight gain, reproduction and mortality rates that occurs due to seasonal conditions. Nor do they consider the implications of flexible stocking strategies designed to adapt these production systems to the highly variable climate. The aim of the present study was to quantify the variation in total GHGE (t CO2e) and GHGE intensity (t CO2e/t liveweight sold) for the beef industry in northern Australia when variability in these factors was considered. A combined GRASP–Enterprise modelling platform was used to simulate a breeding–finishing beef cattle property in the Burdekin River region of northern Queensland, using historical climate data from 1982–2011. GHGE was calculated using the method of Australian National Greenhouse Gas Inventory. Five different stocking-rate strategies were simulated with fixed stocking strategies at moderate and high rates, and three flexible stocking strategies where the stocking rate was adjusted annually by up to 5%, 10% or 20%, according to pasture available at the end of the growing season. Variation in total annual GHGE was lowest in the ‘fixed moderate’ (~9.5 ha/adult equivalent (AE)) stocking strategy, ranging from 3799 to 4471 t CO2e, and highest in the ‘fixed high’ strategy (~5.9 ha/AE), which ranged from 3771 to 7636 t CO2e. The ‘fixed moderate’ strategy had the least variation in GHGE intensity (15.7–19.4 t CO2e/t liveweight sold), while the ‘flexible 20’ strategy (up to 20% annual change in AE) had the largest range (10.5–40.8 t CO2e/t liveweight sold). Across the five stocking strategies, the ‘fixed moderate’ stocking-rate strategy had the highest simulated perennial grass percentage and pasture growth, highest average rate of liveweight gain (121 kg/steer), highest average branding percentage (74%) and lowest average breeding-cow mortality rate (3.9%), resulting in the lowest average GHGE intensity (16.9 t CO2e/t liveweight sold). The ‘fixed high’ stocking rate strategy (~5.9 ha/AE) performed the poorest in each of these measures, while the three flexible stocking strategies were intermediate. The ‘fixed moderate’ stocking strategy also yielded the highest average gross margin per AE carried and per hectare. These results highlight the importance of considering the influence of climate variability on stocking-rate management strategies and herd performance when estimating GHGE. The results also support a body of previous work that has recommended the adoption of moderate stocking strategies to enhance the profitability and ecological stability of beef production systems in northern Australia.