Assessing and reducing vulnerability to climate change: Moving from theory to practical decision-support

As climate change continues to impact socio-ecological systems, tools that assist conservation managers to understand vulnerability and target adaptations are essential. Quantitative assessments of vulnerability are rare because available frameworks are complex and lack guidance for dealing with data limitations and integrating across scales and disciplines. This paper describes a semi-quantitative method for assessing vulnerability to climate change that integrates socio-ecological factors to address management objectives and support decision-making. The method applies a framework first adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and uses a structured 10-step process. The scores for each framework element are normalized and multiplied to produce a vulnerability score and then the assessed components are ranked from high to low vulnerability. Sensitivity analyses determine which indicators most influence the analysis and the resultant decision-making process so data quality for these indicators can be reviewed to increase robustness. Prioritisation of components for conservation considers other economic, social and cultural values with vulnerability rankings to target actions that reduce vulnerability to climate change by decreasing exposure or sensitivity and/or increasing adaptive capacity. This framework provides practical decision-support and has been applied to marine ecosystems and fisheries, with two case applications provided as examples: (1) food security in Pacific Island nations under climate-driven fish declines, and (2) fisheries in the Gulf of Carpentaria, northern Australia. The step-wise process outlined here is broadly applicable and can be undertaken with minimal resources using existing data, thereby having great potential to inform adaptive natural resource management in diverse locations.

Distribution and eradication of an exotic tephritid fruit fly in Australia: Relevance of invasion theory

Data from the eradication of the incursion of Bactrocera papayae Drew and Hancock (Dipt.: Tephritidae) in Australia (1995-1998) are used to assess the significance of various aspects of invasion theory, including the influence of towns on establishment, influence of propagule pressure on the pattern of establishment, and the existence of source-sink dynamics. Because there were no sentinel traps in place, considerable spread had occurred before the eradication campaign started. The distribution of fly density around the epicentre in the town of Cairns and a transect along the main traffic routes to the north and south fitted a Cauchy model with a tail having the same slope as a power model with an exponent of -2.4 extending to 160 km. The Cauchy model indicated that 50% of the flies on the transect would have occurred within 3.2 km of the epicentre, 90% within 13.2 km, and 99% within 60 km. The two major satellites at Mareeba (35 km from the epicentre in Cairns) and Mossman (65 km) were not used for the transect data and had respectively 15 and 30 times the density predicted by the model. The proportion of traps that caught flies (a measure of site occupancy) fell with distance from the epicentre. B. papayae was trapped consistently on only three of the 16 rainforest transects that were surveyed and these were relatively close to urban areas where eradication efforts were intense. Despite there being no eradication effort in the rainforest, the trends to extinction were similar to those in adjacent areas. The strategy of initially concentrating eradication efforts on the core and major satellites while maintaining a quarantine barrier at the airport and the boundaries of the infested area appears to be the key to the containment and rapid eradication of the incursion.

Time-dependent instantaneous mortality rates from multiple tagging experiments with exact times of release and recovery

Instantaneous natural mortality rates and a nonparametric hunting mortality function are estimated from a multiple-year tagging experiment with arbitrary, time-dependent fishing or hunting mortality. Our theory allows animals to be tagged over a range of times in each year, and to take time to mix into the population. Animals are recovered by hunting or fishing, and death events from natural causes occur but are not observed. We combine a long-standing approach based on yearly totals, described by Brownie et al. (1985, Statistical Inference from Band Recovery Data: A Handbook, Second edition, United States Fish and Wildlife Service, Washington, Resource Publication, 156), with an exact-time-of-recovery approach originated by Hearn, Sandland and Hampton (1987, Journal du Conseil International pour l'Exploration de la Mer, 43, 107-117), who modeled times at liberty without regard to time of tagging. Our model allows for exact times of release and recovery, incomplete reporting of recoveries, and potential tag shedding. We apply our methods to data on the heavily exploited southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii).

Ecological impacts of feral pig diggings in north Queensland rainforests

This two-year study examined the impacts of feral pig diggings on five ecological indicators: seedling survival, surface litter, subsurface plant biomass, earthworm biomass and soil moisture content. Twelve recovery exclosures were established in two habitats (characterised by wet and dry soil moisture) by fencing off areas of previous pig diggings. A total of 0.59 ha was excluded from further pig diggings and compared with 1.18 ha of unfenced control areas. Overall, seedling numbers increased 7% within the protected exclosures and decreased 37% within the unprotected controls over the two-year study period. A significant temporal interaction was found in the dry habitat, with seedling survival increasing with increasing time of protection from diggings. Feral pig diggings had no significant effect on surface litter biomass, subsurface plant biomass, earthworm biomass or soil moisture content.

As clear as mud: A critical review of evidence for the ecological roles of Australian dingoes

Top-predators have been reported to have an important role in structuring food webs and maintaining ecological processes for the benefit of biodiversity at lower trophic levels. This is thought to be achieved through their suppressive effects on sympatric mesopredators and prey. Great scientific and public interest surrounds the potential use of top-predators as biodiversity conservation tools, and it can often be difficult to separate what we think we know and what we really know about their ecological utility. Not all the claims made about the ecological roles of top-predators can be substantiated by current evidence. We review the methodology underpinning empirical data on the ecological roles of Australian dingoes (Canis lupus dingo and hybrids) to provide a comprehensive and objective benchmark for knowledge of the ecological roles of Australia's largest terrestrial predator. From a wide variety of methodological flaws, sampling bias, and experimental design constraints inherent to 38 of the 40 field studies we assessed, we demonstrate that there is presently unreliable and inconclusive evidence for dingoes role as a biodiversity regulator. We also discuss the widespread (both taxonomically and geographically) and direct negative effects of dingoes to native fauna, and the few robust studies investigating their positive roles. In light of the highly variable and context-specific impacts of dingoes on faunal biodiversity and the inconclusive state of the literature, we strongly caution against the positive management of dingoes in the absence of a supporting evidence-base for such action.

Ecological risk assessment of the East Coast Otter Trawl Fishery in the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park: Data report

An ecological risk assessment of the East Coast Otter Trawl Fishery in the Great Barrier Reef Region was undertaken in 2010 and 2011. It assessed the risks posed by this fishery to achieving fishery-related and broader ecological objectives of both the Queensland and Australian governments, including risks to the values and integrity of the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area. The risks assessed included direct and indirect effects on the species caught in the fishery as well as on the structure and functioning of the ecosystem. This ecosystem-based approach included an assessment of the impacts on harvested species, by-catch, species of conservation concern, marine habitats, species assemblages and ecosystem processes. The assessment took into account current management arrangements and fishing practices at the time of the assessment. The main findings of the assessment were: Current risk levels from trawling activities are generally low. Some risks from trawling remain. Risks from trawling have reduced in the Great Barrier Reef Region. Trawl fishing effort is a key driver of ecological risk. Zoning has been important in reducing risks. Reducing identified unacceptable risks requires a range of management responses. The commercial fishing industry is supportive and being proactive. Further reductions in trawl by-catch, high compliance with rules and accurate information from ongoing risk monitoring are important. Trawl fishing is just one of the sources of risk to the Great Barrier Reef.

A review of the application of molecular genetics for fisheries management and conservation of sharks and rays

Since the first investigation 25 years ago, the application of genetic tools to address ecological and evolutionary questions in elasmobranch studies has greatly expanded. Major developments in genetic theory as well as in the availability, cost effectiveness and resolution of genetic markers were instrumental for particularly rapid progress over the last 10 years. Genetic studies of elasmobranchs are of direct importance and have application to fisheries management and conservation issues such as the definition of management units and identification of species from fins. In the future, increased application of the most recent and emerging technologies will enable accelerated genetic data production and the development of new markers at reduced costs, paving the way for a paradigm shift from gene to genome-scale research, and more focus on adaptive rather than just neutral variation. Current literature is reviewed in six fields of elasmobranch molecular genetics relevant to fisheries and conservation management (species identification, phylogeography, philopatry, genetic effective population size, molecular evolutionary rate and emerging methods). Where possible, examples from the Indo-Pacific region, which has been underrepresented in previous reviews, are emphasized within a global perspective. (C) 2012 The Authors Journal of Fish Biology (C) 2012 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles

Generalised growth models for aquatic species with an application to blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra)

This paper presents a maximum likelihood method for estimating growth parameters for an aquatic species that incorporates growth covariates, and takes into consideration multiple tag-recapture data. Individual variability in asymptotic length, age-at-tagging, and measurement error are also considered in the model structure. Using distribution theory, the log-likelihood function is derived under a generalised framework for the von Bertalanffy and Gompertz growth models. Due to the generality of the derivation, covariate effects can be included for both models with seasonality and tagging effects investigated. Method robustness is established via comparison with the Fabens, improved Fabens, James and a non-linear mixed-effects growth models, with the maximum likelihood method performing the best. The method is illustrated further with an application to blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra) for which a strong growth-retarding tagging effect that persisted for several months was detected. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecological significance of rice (Oryza sativa) planting density and nitrogen rates in managing the growth and competitive ability of itchgrass (Rottboellia cochinchinensis) in direct-seeded rice systems

Current understanding is that high planting density has the potential to suppress weeds and crop-weed interactions can be exploited by adjusting fertilizer rates. We hypothesized that (a) high planting density can be used to suppress Rottboellia cochinchinensis growth and (b) rice competitiveness against this weed can be enhanced by increasing nitrogen (N) rates. We tested these hypotheses by growing R. cochinchinensis alone and in competition with four rice planting densities (0, 100, 200, and 400 plants m-2) at four N rates (0, 50, 100, and 150 kg ha-1). At 56 days after sowing (DAS), R. cochinchinensis plant height decreased by 27-50 %, tiller number by 55-76 %, leaf number by 68-84 %, leaf area by 70-83 %, leaf biomass by 26-90 %, and inflorescence biomass by 60-84 %, with rice densities ranging from 100 to 400 plants m-2. All these parameters increased with an increase in N rate. Without the addition of N, R. cochinchinensis plants were 174 % taller than rice; whereas, with added N, they were 233 % taller. Added N favored more weed biomass production relative to rice. R. cochinchinensis grew taller than rice (at all N rates) to avoid shade, which suggests that it is a "shade-avoiding" plant. R. cochinchinensis showed this ability to reduce the effect of rice interference through increased leaf weight ratio, specific stem length, and decreased root-shoot weight ratio. This weed is more responsive to N fertilizer than rice. Therefore, farmers should give special consideration to the application timing of N fertilizer when more N-responsive weeds are present in their field. Results suggest that the growth and seed production of R. cochinchinensis can be decreased considerably by increasing rice density to 400 plants m-2. There is a need to integrate different weed control measures to achieve complete control of this noxious weed.

Ecological dynamics of emerging bat virus spillover

Viruses that originate in bats may be the most notorious emerging zoonoses that spill over from wildlife into domestic animals and humans. Understanding how these infections filter through ecological systems to cause disease in humans is of profound importance to public health. Transmission of viruses from bats to humans requires a hierarchy of enabling conditions that connect the distribution of reservoir hosts, viral infection within these hosts, and exposure and susceptibility of recipient hosts. For many emerging bat viruses, spillover also requires viral shedding from bats, and survival of the virus in the environment. Focusing on Hendra virus, but also addressing Nipah virus, Ebola virus, Marburg virus and coronaviruses, we delineate this cross-species spillover dynamic from the within-host processes that drive virus excretion to land-use changes that increase interaction among species. We describe how land-use changes may affect co-occurrence and contact between bats and recipient hosts. Two hypotheses may explain temporal and spatial pulses of virus shedding in bat populations: episodic shedding from persistently infected bats or transient epidemics that occur as virus is transmitted among bat populations. Management of livestock also may affect the probability of exposure and disease. Interventions to decrease the probability of virus spillover can be implemented at multiple levels from targeting the reservoir host to managing recipient host exposure and susceptibility.

Ecological dynamics of emerging bat virus spillover

Viruses that originate in bats may be the most notorious emerging zoonoses that spill over from wildlife into domestic animals and humans. Understanding how these infections filter through ecological systems to cause disease in humans is of profound importance to public health. Transmission of viruses from bats to humans requires a hierarchy of enabling conditions that connect the distribution of reservoir hosts, viral infection within these hosts, and exposure and susceptibility of recipient hosts. For many emerging bat viruses, spillover also requires viral shedding from bats, and survival of the virus in the environment. Focusing on Hendra virus, but also addressing Nipah virus, Ebola virus, Marburg virus and coronaviruses, we delineate this cross-species spillover dynamic from the within-host processes that drive virus excretion to land-use changes that increase interaction among species. We describe how land-use changes may affect co-occurrence and contact between bats and recipient hosts. Two hypotheses may explain temporal and spatial pulses of virus shedding in bat populations: episodic shedding from persistently infected bats or transient epidemics that occur as virus is transmitted among bat populations. Management of livestock also may affect the probability of exposure and disease. Interventions to decrease the probability of virus spillover can be implemented at multiple levels from targeting the reservoir host to managing recipient host exposure and susceptibility.