18 resultados para Drag coefficients

em eResearch Archive - Queensland Department of Agriculture


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A tethered remote instrument package (TRIP) has been developed for biological surveys over Queensland's continental shelf and slope. The present system, evolved from an earlier sled configuration, is suspended above the sea bed and towed at low speeds. Survey information is collected through video and film cameras while instrument and environmental variables are handled by a minicomputer. The operator was able to "fly" the instrument package above the substrate by using an altitude echosounder, forward-looking sonar and real-time television viewing. Unwanted movements of the viewing system were stabilized through a gyro-controlled camera-head panning system. the hydrodynamic drag of the umbilical presented a major control problem which could be overcome only by a reduction in towing speed. Despite the constraints of towing a device such as this through the coral reef environment, the package performed well during a recent biological survey where it was worked at 50% of its 350 m design depth.

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Spectral data were collected of intact and ground kernels using 3 instruments (using Si-PbS, Si, and InGaAs detectors), operating over different areas of the spectrum (between 400 and 2500 nm) and employing transmittance, interactance, and reflectance sample presentation strategies. Kernels were assessed on the basis of oil and water content, and with respect to the defect categories of insect damage, rancidity, discoloration, mould growth, germination, and decomposition. Predictive model performance statistics for oil content models were acceptable on all instruments (R2 > 0.98; RMSECV < 2.5%, which is similar to reference analysis error), although that for the instrument employing reflectance optics was inferior to models developed for the instruments employing transmission optics. The spectral positions for calibration coefficients were consistent with absorbance due to the third overtones of CH2 stretching. Calibration models for moisture content in ground samples were acceptable on all instruments (R2 > 0.97; RMSECV < 0.2%), whereas calibration models for intact kernels were relatively poor. Calibration coefficients were more highly weighted around 1360, 740 and 840 nm, consistent with absorbance due to overtones of O-H stretching and combination. Intact kernels with brown centres or rancidity could be discriminated from each other and from sound kernels using principal component analysis. Part kernels affected by insect damage, discoloration, mould growth, germination, and decomposition could be discriminated from sound kernels. However, discrimination among these defect categories was not distinct and could not be validated on an independent set. It is concluded that there is good potential for a low cost Si photodiode array instrument to be employed to identify some quality defects of intact macadamia kernels and to quantify oil and moisture content of kernels in the process laboratory and for oil content in-line. Further work is required to examine the robustness of predictive models across different populations, including growing districts, cultivars and times of harvest.

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Prediction of the initiation, appearance and emergence of leaves is critically important to the success of simulation models of crop canopy development and some aspects of crop ontogeny. Data on leaf number and crop ontogeny were collected on five cultivars of maize differing widely in maturity and genetic background grown under natural and extended photoperiods, and planted on seven sowing dates from October 1993 to March 1994 at Gatton, South-east Queensland. The same temperature coefficients were established for crop ontogeny before silking, and the rates of leaf initiation, leaf tip appearance and full leaf expansion, the base, optimum and maximum temperatures for each being 8, 34 and 40 degrees C. After silking, the base temperature for ontogeny was 0 degrees C, but the optimum and maximum temperatures remained unchanged. The rates of leaf initiation, appearance of leaf tips and full leaf expansion varied in a relatively narrow range across sowing times and photoperiod treatments, with average values of 0.040 leaves (degrees Cd)-1, 0.021 leaves (degrees Cd)-1, and 0.019 leaves (degrees Cd)-1, respectively. The relationships developed in this study provided satisfactory predictions of leaf number and crop ontogeny (tassel initiation to silking, emergence to silking and silking to physiological maturity) when assessed using independent data from Gatton (South eastern Queensland), Katherine and Douglas Daly (Northern Territory), Walkamin (North Queensland) and Kununurra (Western Australia).

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Volatile chemical compounds responsible for the aroma of wine are derived from a number of different biochemical and chemical pathways. These chemical compounds are formed during grape berry metabolism, crushing of the berries, fermentation processes (i.e. yeast and malolactic bacteria) and also from the ageing and storage of wine. Not surprisingly, there are a large number of chemical classes of compounds found in wine which are present at varying concentrations (ng L-1 to mg L-1), exhibit differing potencies, and have a broad range of volatilities and boiling points. The aim of this work was to investigate the potential use of near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy combined with chemometrics as a rapid and low-cost technique to measure volatile compounds in Riesling wines. Samples of commercial Riesling wine were analyzed using an NIR instrument and volatile compounds by gas chromatography (GC) coupled with selected ion monitoring mass spectrometry. Correlation between the NIR and GC data were developed using partial least-squares (PLS) regression with full cross validation (leave one out). Coefficients of determination in cross validation (R 2) and the standard error in cross validation (SECV) were 0.74 (SECV: 313.6 μg L−1) for esters, 0.90 (SECV: 20.9 μg L−1) for monoterpenes and 0.80 (SECV: 1658 ?g L-1) for short-chain fatty acids. This study has shown that volatile chemical compounds present in wine can be measured by NIR spectroscopy. Further development with larger data sets will be required to test the predictive ability of the NIR calibration models developed.

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As part of preliminary work aimed at the development of a formulated diet for the mud crab, Scylla serrata, an experiment was conducted with juvenile mud crabs (95.65±2.17 g) to determine apparent digestibility coefficients (ADC) for cellulose, fish meal, shrimp meal, blood meal, soybean meal, wheat flour and cod liver oil. Apparent digestibility coefficients for dry matter (ADCdm), energy (ADCenergy) and protein (ADC protein) were in the ranges 70.0-95.7%, 77.4-97.1% and 57.7-97.9% respectively. Soybean meal had the highest ADCdm and wheat flour had the lowest value (P<0.05), while the ADCdm for fish meal, blood meal and shrimp meal were not different (P?0.05). Similarly, soybean meal had the same ADCenergy as that of fish meal, but higher than those of cod liver oil, blood meal and shrimp meal (P<0.05). Moreover, the ADC protein for blood meal or shrimp meal were not significantly different from fish meal (P?0.05); nevertheless, they were lower than that of soybean meal and higher than that of wheat flour (P<0.05). Of significant interest was the ADCdm (78.0%) and ADCenergy (77.4%) for cellulose, which indicates that plant-based nutrient sources may well be a useful component of formulated diets for mud crabs.

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Aerial surveys of kangaroos (Macropus spp.) in Queensland are used to make economically important judgements on the levels of viable commercial harvest. Previous analysis methods for aerial kangaroo surveys have used both mark-recapture methodologies and conventional distance-sampling analyses. Conventional distance sampling has the disadvantage that detection is assumed to be perfect on the transect line, while mark-recapture methods are notoriously sensitive to problems with unmodelled heterogeneity in capture probabilities. We introduce three methodologies for combining together mark-recapture and distance-sampling data, aimed at exploiting the strengths of both methodologies and overcoming the weaknesses. Of these methods, two are based on the assumption of full independence between observers in the mark-recapture component, and this appears to introduce more bias in density estimation than it resolves through allowing uncertain trackline detection. Both of these methods give lower density estimates than conventional distance sampling, indicating a clear failure of the independence assumption. The third method, termed point independence, appears to perform very well, giving credible density estimates and good properties in terms of goodness-of-fit and percentage coefficient of variation. Estimated densities of eastern grey kangaroos range from 21 to 36 individuals km-2, with estimated coefficients of variation between 11% and 14% and estimated trackline detection probabilities primarily between 0.7 and 0.9.

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The further development of Taqman quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) assays for the absolute quantitation of Marek's disease virus serotype 1 (MDV1) and Herpesvirus of turkeys (HVT) viruses is described and the sensitivity and reproducibility of each assay reported. Using plasmid DNA copies, the lower limit of detection was determined to be 5 copies for the MDV1 assay and 75 copies for the HVT assay. Both assays were found to be highly reproducible for Ct values and calculated copy numbers with mean intra- and inter-assay coefficients of variation being less than 5% for Ct and 20% for calculated copy number. The genome copy number of MDV1 and HVT viruses was quantified in PBL and feather tips from experimentally infected chickens, and field poultry dust samples. Parallelism was demonstrated between the plasmid-based standard curves, and standard curves derived from infected spleen material containing both viral and host DNA, allowing the latter to be used for absolute quantification. These methods should prove useful for the reliable differentiation and absolute quantitation of MDV1 and HVT viruses in a wide range of samples.

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In Australia communities are concerned about atrazine being detected in drinking water supplies. It is important to understand mechanisms by which atrazine is transported from paddocks to waterways if we are to reduce movement of agricultural chemicals from the site of application. Two paddocks cropped with grain sorghum on a Black Vertosol were monitored for atrazine, potassium chloride (KCl) extractable atrazine, desethylatrazine (DEA), and desisopropylatrazine (DIA) at 4 soil depths (0-0.05, 0.05-0.10, 0.10-0.20, and 0.20-0.30 m) and in runoff water and runoff sediment. Atrazine + DEA + DIA (total atrazine) had a half-life in soil of 16-20 days, more rapid dissipation than in many earlier reports. Atrazine extracted in dilute potassium chloride, considered available for weed control, was initially 34% of the total and had a half-life of 15-20 days until day 30, after which it dissipated rapidly with a half life of 6 days. We conclude that, in this region, atrazine may not pose a risk for groundwater contamination, as only 0.5% of applied atrazine moved deeper than 0.20 m into the soil, where it dissipated rapidly. In runoff (including suspended sediment) atrazine concentrations were greatest during the first runoff event (57 days after application) (85 μg/L) and declined with time. After 160 days, the total atrazine lost in runoff was 0.4% of the initial application. The total atrazine concentration in runoff was strongly related to the total concentration in soil, as expected. Even after 98% of the KCl-extractable atrazine had dissipated (and no longer provided weed control), runoff concentrations still exceeded the human health guideline value of 40 μg/L. For total atrazine in soil (0-0.05 m), the range for coefficient of soil sorption (Kd) was 1.9-28.4 mL/g and for soil organic carbon sorption (KOC) was 100-2184 mL/g, increasing with time of contact with the soil and rapid dissipation of the more soluble, available phase. Partition coefficients in runoff for total atrazine were initially 3, increasing to 32 and 51 with time, values for DEA being half these. To minimise atrazine losses, cultural practices that maximise rain infiltration, and thereby minimise runoff, and minimise concentrations in the soil surface should be adopted.

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We investigated the influence of rainfall patterns on the water-use efficiency of wheat in a transect between Horsham (36°S) and Emerald (23°S) in eastern Australia. Water-use efficiency was defined in terms of biomass and transpiration, WUEB/T, and grain yield and evapotranspiration, WUEY/ET. Our working hypothesis is that latitudinal trends in WUEY/ET of water-limited crops are the complex result of southward increasing WUEB/T and soil evaporation, and season-dependent trends in harvest index. Our approach included: (a) analysis of long-term records to establish latitudinal gradients of amount, seasonality, and size-structure of rainfall; and (b) modelling wheat development, growth, yield, water budget components, and derived variables including WUEB/T and WUEY/ET. Annual median rainfall declined from around 600 mm in northern locations to 380 mm in the south. Median seasonal rain (from sowing to harvest) doubled between Emerald and Horsham, whereas median off-season rainfall (harvest to sowing) ranged from 460 mm at Emerald to 156 mm at Horsham. The contribution of small events (≤ 5 mm) to seasonal rainfall was negligible at Emerald (median 15 mm) and substantial at Horsham (105 mm). Power law coefficients (τ), i.e. the slopes of the regression between size and number of events in a log-log scale, captured the latitudinal gradient characterised by an increasing dominance of small events from north to south during the growing season. Median modelled WUEB/T increased from 46 kg/ha.mm at Emerald to 73 kg/ha.mm at Horsham, in response to decreasing atmospheric demand. Median modelled soil evaporation during the growing season increased from 70 mm at Emerald to 172 mm at Horsham. This was explained by the size-structure of rainfall characterised with parameter τ, rather than by the total amount of rainfall. Median modelled harvest index ranged from 0.25 to 0.34 across locations, and had a season-dependent latitudinal pattern, i.e. it was greater in northern locations in dry seasons in association with wetter soil profiles at sowing. There was a season-dependent latitudinal pattern in modelled WUEY/ET. In drier seasons, high soil evaporation driven by a very strong dominance of small events, and lower harvest index override the putative advantage of low atmospheric demand and associated higher WUEB/T in southern locations, hence the significant southwards decrease in WUEY/ET. In wetter seasons, when large events contribute a significant proportion of seasonal rain, higher WUEB/T in southern locations may translate into high WUEY/ET. Linear boundary functions (French-Schultz type models) accounting for latitudinal gradients in its parameters, slope, and x-intercept, were fitted to scatter-plots of modelled yield v. evapotranspiration. The x-intercept of the model is re-interpreted in terms of rainfall size structure, and the slope or efficiency multiplier is described in terms of the radiation, temperature, and air humidity properties of the environment. Implications for crop management and breeding are discussed.

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The Davis Growth Model (a dynamic steer growth model encompassing 4 fat deposition models) is currently being used by the phenotypic prediction program of the Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) for Beef Genetic Technologies to predict P8 fat (mm) in beef cattle to assist beef producers meet market specifications. The concepts of cellular hyperplasia and hypertrophy are integral components of the Davis Growth Model. The net synthesis of total body fat (kg) is calculated from the net energy available after accounting tor energy needs for maintenance and protein synthesis. Total body fat (kg) is then partitioned into 4 fat depots (intermuscular, intramuscular, subcutaneous, and visceral). This paper reports on the parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis of the DNA (deoxyribonucleic acid) logistic growth equations and the fat deposition first-order differential equations in the Davis Growth Model using acslXtreme (Hunstville, AL, USA, Xcellon). The DNA and fat deposition parameter coefficients were found to be important determinants of model function; the DNA parameter coefficients with days on feed >100 days and the fat deposition parameter coefficients for all days on feed. The generalized NL2SOL optimization algorithm had the fastest processing time and the minimum number of objective function evaluations when estimating the 4 fat deposition parameter coefficients with 2 observed values (initial and final fat). The subcutaneous fat parameter coefficient did indicate a metabolic difference for frame sizes. The results look promising and the prototype Davis Growth Model has the potential to assist the beef industry meet market specifications.

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A microplate assay was modified for the detection of antimicrobial activity in plant extracts. The aim was to develop an in vitro assay that could rapidly screen plant extracts to provide quantitative data on inhibition of microbial growth. A spectrophotometric assay using a microplate with serial dilutions of the plant extract and the bacteria was developed. Two bacteria, Staphylococcus aureus and Escherichia coli, were used for this study. Essential oils, oregano (Origanum vulgare) and lemon myrtle (Backhousia citriodora), and three active components carvacrol, thymol and citral were evaluated. The reproducibility of the assay was high, with correlation coefficients (r aureus and E. coli between 0.9321 and 0.9816. Similarly, r and 0.9814. This assay could also be used to measure antimicrobial activity in plant extracts which vary in pH and color.

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Summary Poor land condition resulting from unsustainable grazing practices can reduce enterprise profitability and increase water, sediment and associated nutrient runoff from properties and catchments. This paper presents the results of a 6 year field study that used a series of hillslope flume experiments to evaluate the impact of improved grazing land management (GLM) on hillslope runoff and sediment yields. The study was carried out on a commercial grazing property in a catchment draining to the Burdekin River in northern Australia. During this study average ground cover on hillslopes increased from ~35% to ~75%, although average biomass and litter levels are still relatively low for this landscape type (~60 increasing to 1100 kg of dry matter per hectare). Pasture recovery was greatest on the upper and middle parts of hillslopes. Areas that did not respond to the improved grazing management had <10% cover and were on the lower slopes associated with the location of sodic soil and the initiation of gullies. Comparison of ground cover changes and soil conditions with adjacent properties suggest that grazing management, and not just improved rainfall conditions, were responsible for the improvements in ground cover in this study. The ground cover improvements resulted in progressively lower runoff coefficients for the first event in each wet season, however, runoff coefficients were not reduced at the annual time scale. The hillslope annual sediment yields declined by ~70% on two out of three hillslopes, although where bare patches (with <10% cover) were connected to gullies and streams, annual sediment yields increased in response to higher rainfall in latter years of the study. It appears that bare patches are the primary source areas for both runoff and erosion on these hillslopes. Achieving further reductions in runoff and erosion in these landscapes may require management practices that improve ground cover and biomass in bare areas, particularly when they are located adjacent to concentrated drainage lines.

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Exotic and invasive woody vines are major environmental weeds of riparian areas, rainforest communities and remnant natural vegetation in coastal eastern Australia, where they smother standing vegetation, including large trees, and cause canopy collapse. We investigated, through glasshouse resource manipulative experiments, the ecophysiological traits that might facilitate faster growth, better resource acquisition and/or utilization and thus dominance of four exotic and invasive vines of South East Queensland, Australia, compared with their native counterparts. Relative growth rate was not significantly different between the two groups but water use efficiency (WUE) was higher in the native species while the converse was observed for light use efficiency (quantum efficiency, AQE) and maximum photosynthesis on a mass basis (Amax mass). The invasive species, as a group, also exhibited higher respiration load, higher light compensation point and higher specific leaf area. There were stronger correlations of leaf traits and greater structural (but not physiological) plasticity in invasive species than in their native counterparts. The scaling coefficients of resource use efficiencies (WUE, AQE and respiration efficiency) as well as those of fitness (biomass accumulated) versus many of the performance traits examined did not differ between the two species-origin groups, but there were indications of significant shifts in elevation (intercept values) and shifts along common slopes in many of these relationships – signalling differences in carbon economy (revenue returned per unit energy invested) and/or resource usage. Using ordination and based on 14 ecophysiological attributes, a fair level of separation between the two groups was achieved (51.5% explanatory power), with AQE, light compensation point, respiration load, WUE, specific leaf area and leaf area ratio, in decreasing order, being the main drivers. This study suggests similarity in trait plasticity, especially for physiological traits, but there appear to be fundamental differences in carbon economy and resource conservation between native and invasive vine species.

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A multiplex real-time PCR was developed for the detection and differentiation of two closely related bovine herpesviruses 1 (BoHV-1) and 5 (BoHV-5). The multiplex real-time PCR combines a duplex real-time PCR that targets the DNA polymerase gene of BoHV-1 and BoHV-5 and a real-time PCR targeting mitochondrial DNA, as a house-keeping gene, described previously by Cawthraw et al. (2009). The assay correctly identified 22 BoHV-1 and six BoHV-5 isolates from the Biosecurity Sciences Laboratory virus collection. BoHV-1 and BoHV-5 were also correctly identified when incorporated in spiked semen and brain tissue samples. The detection limits of the duplex assay were 10 copies of BoHV-1 and 45 copies of BoHV-5. The multiplex real-time PCR had reaction efficiencies of 1.04 for BoHV-1 and 1.08 for BoHV-5. Standard curves relating Ct value to template copy number had correlation coefficients of 0.989 for BoHV-1 and 0.978 for BoHV-5. The assay specificity was demonstrated by testing bacterial and viral DNA from pathogens commonly isolated from bovine respiratory and reproductive tracts. The validated multiplex real-time PCR was used to detect and differentiate BoHV-1 and BoHV-5 in bovine clinical samples with known histories.

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Non-Technical Summary Seafood CRC Project 2009/774. Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery Principal Investigator: Dr Tony Courtney, Principal Fisheries Biologist Fisheries and Aquaculture, Agri-Science Queensland Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Level B1, Ecosciences Precinct, Joe Baker St, Dutton Park, Queensland 4102 Email: tony.courtney@daff.qld.gov.au Project objectives: 1. Review the literature and data (i.e., economic, biological and logbook) relevant to the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 2. Identify and prioritise management objectives for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery, as identified by the trawl fishers. 3. Undertake an economic analysis of Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 4. Quantify long-term changes to fishing power for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 5. Assess priority harvest strategies identified in 2 (above). Present results to, and discuss results with, Moreton Bay Seafood Industry Association (MBSIA), fishers and Fisheries Queensland. Note: Additional, specific objectives for 2 (above) were developed by fishers and the MBSIA after commencement of the project. These are presented in detail in section 5 (below). The project was an initiative of the MBSIA, primarily in response to falling profitability in the Moreton Bay prawn trawl fishery. The analyses were undertaken by a consortium of DAFF, CSIRO and University of Queensland researchers. This report adopted the Australian Standard Fish Names (http://www.fishnames.com.au/). Trends in catch and effort The Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery is a multispecies fishery, with the majority of the catch composed of Greasyback Prawns (Metapenaeus bennettae), Brown Tiger Prawns (Penaeus esculentus), Eastern King Prawns (Melicertus plebejus), squid (Uroteuthis spp., Sepioteuthis spp.), Banana Prawns (Fenneropenaeus merguiensis), Endeavour Prawns (Metapenaeus ensis, Metapenaeus endeavouri) and Moreton Bay bugs (Thenus parindicus). Other commercially important byproduct includes blue swimmer crabs (Portunus armatus), three-spot crabs (Portunus sanguinolentus), cuttlefish (Sepia spp.) and mantis shrimp (Oratosquilla spp.). Logbook catch and effort data show that total annual reported catch of prawns from the Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery has declined to 315 t in 2008 from a maximum of 901 t in 1990. The number of active licensed vessels participating in the fishery has also declined from 207 in 1991 to 57 in 2010. Similarly, fishing effort has fallen from a peak of 13,312 boat-days in 1999 to 3817 boat-days in 2008 – a 71% reduction. The declines in catch and effort are largely attributed to reduced profitability in the fishery due to increased operational costs and depressed prawn prices. The low prawn prices appear to be attributed to Australian aquacultured prawns and imported aquacultured vannamei prawns, displacing the markets for trawl-caught prawns, especially small species such as Greasyback Prawns which traditionally dominated landings in Moreton Bay. In recent years, the relatively high Australian dollar has resulted in reduced exports of Australian wild-caught prawns. This has increased supply on the domestic market which has also suppressed price increases. Since 2002, Brown Tiger Prawns have dominated annual reported landings in the Moreton Bay fishery. While total catch and effort in the bay have declined to historically low levels, the annual catch and catch rates of Brown Tiger Prawns have been at record highs in recent years. This appears to be at least partially attributed to the tiger prawn stock having recovered from excessive effort in previous decades. The total annual value of the Moreton Bay trawl fishery catch, including byproduct, is about $5 million, of which Brown Tiger Prawns account for about $2 million. Eastern King Prawns make up about 10% of the catch and are mainly caught in the bay from October to December as they migrate to offshore waters outside the bay where they contribute to a large mono-specific trawl fishery. Some of the Eastern King Prawns harvested in Moreton Bay may be growth overfished (i.e., caught below the size required to maximise yield or value), although the optimum size-at-capture was not determined in this study. Banana Prawns typically make up about 5% of the catch, but can exceed 20%, particularly following heavy rainfall. Economic analysis of the fishery From the economic survey, cash profits were, on average, positive for both fleet segments in both years of the survey. However, after the opportunity cost of capital and depreciation were taken into account, the residual owner-operator income was relatively low, and substantially lower than the average share of revenue paid to employed skippers. Consequently, owner-operators were earning less than their opportunity cost of their labour, suggesting that the fleets were economically unviable in the longer term. The M2 licensed fleet were, on average, earning similar boat cash profits as the T1/M1 fleet, although after the higher capital costs were accounted for the T1/M1 boats were earning substantially lower returns to owner-operator labour. The mean technical efficiency for the fleet as a whole was estimated to be 0.67. That is, on average, the boats were only catching 67 per cent of what was possible given their level of inputs (hours fished and hull units). Almost one-quarter of observations had efficiency scores above 0.8, suggesting a substantial proportion of the fleet are relatively efficient, but some are also relatively inefficient. Both fleets had similar efficiency distributions, with median technical efficiency score of 0.71 and 0.67 for the M2 and T1/M1 boats respectively. These scores are reasonably consistent with other studies of prawn trawl fleets in Australia, although higher average efficiency scores were found in the NSW prawn trawl fleet. From the inefficiency model, several factors were found to significantly influence vessel efficiency. These included the number of years of experience as skipper, the number of generations that the skipper’s family had been fishing and the number of years schooling. Skippers with more schooling were significantly more efficient than skippers with lower levels of schooling, consistent with other studies. Skippers who had been fishing longer were, in fact, less efficient than newer skippers. However, this was mitigated in the case of skippers whose family had been involved in fishing for several generations, consistent with other studies and suggesting that skill was passed through by families over successive generations. Both the linear and log-linear regression models of total fishing effort against the marginal profit per hour performed reasonably well, explaining between 70 and 84 per cent of the variation in fishing effort. As the models had different dependent variables (one logged and the other not logged) this is not a good basis for model choice. A better comparator is the square root of the mean square error (SMSE) expressed as a percentage of the mean total effort. On this criterion, both models performed very similarly. The linear model suggests that each additional dollar of average profits per hour in the fishery increases total effort by around 26 hours each month. From the log linear model, each percentage increase in profits per hour increases total fishing effort by 0.13 per cent. Both models indicate that economic performance is a key driver of fishing effort in the fishery. The effect of removing the boat-replacement policy is to increase individual vessel profitability, catch and effort, but the overall increase in catch is less than that removed by the boats that must exit the fishery. That is, the smaller fleet (in terms of boat numbers) is more profitable but the overall catch is not expected to be greater than before. This assumes, however, that active boats are removed, and that these were also taking an average level of catch. If inactive boats are removed, then catch of the remaining group as a whole could increase by between 14 and 17 per cent depending on the degree to which costs are reduced with the new boats. This is still substantially lower than historical levels of catch by the fleet. Fishing power analyses An analysis of logbook data from 1988 to 2010, and survey information on fishing gear, was performed to estimate the long-term variation in the fleet’s ability to catch prawns (known as fishing power) and to derive abundance estimates of the three most commercially important prawn species (i.e., Brown Tiger, Eastern King and Greasyback Prawns). Generalised linear models were used to explain the variation in catch as a function of effort (i.e., hours fished per day), vessel and gear characteristics, onboard technologies, population abundance and environmental factors. This analysis estimated that fishing power associated with Brown Tiger and Eastern King Prawns increased over the past 20 years by 10–30% and declined by approximately 10% for greasybacks. The density of tiger prawns was estimated to have almost tripled from around 0.5 kg per hectare in 1988 to 1.5 kg/ha in 2010. The density of Eastern King Prawns was estimated to have fluctuated between 1 and 2 kg per hectare over this time period, without any noticeable overall trend, while Greasyback Prawn densities were estimated to have fluctuated between 2 and 6 kg per hectare, also without any distinctive trend. A model of tiger prawn catches was developed to evaluate the impact of fishing on prawn survival rates in Moreton Bay. The model was fitted to logbook data using the maximum-likelihood method to provide estimates of the natural mortality rate (0.038 and 0.062 per week) and catchability (which can be defined as the proportion of the fished population that is removed by one unit of effort, in this case, estimated to be 2.5 ± 0.4 E-04 per boat-day). This approach provided a method for industry and scientists to develop together a realistic model of the dynamics of the fishery. Several aspects need to be developed further to make this model acceptable to industry. Firstly, there is considerable evidence to suggest that temperature influences prawn catchability. This ecological effect should be incorporated before developing meaningful harvest strategies. Secondly, total effort has to be allocated between each species. Such allocation of effort could be included in the model by estimating several catchability coefficients. Nevertheless, the work presented in this report is a stepping stone towards estimating essential fishery parameters and developing representative mathematical models required to evaluate harvest strategies. Developing a method that allowed an effective discussion between industry, management and scientists took longer than anticipated. As a result, harvest strategy evaluations were preliminary and only included the most valuable species in the fishery, Brown Tiger Prawns. Additional analyses and data collection, including information on catch composition from field sampling, migration rates and recruitment, would improve the modelling. Harvest strategy evaluations As the harvest strategy evaluations are preliminary, the following results should not be adopted for management purposes until more thorough evaluations are performed. The effects, of closing the fishery for one calendar month, on the annual catch and value of Brown Tiger Prawns were investigated. Each of the 12 months (i.e., January to December) was evaluated. The results were compared against historical records to determine the magnitude of gain or loss associated with the closure. Uncertainty regarding the trawl selectivity was addressed using two selectivity curves, one with a weight at 50% selection (S50%) of 7 g, based on research data, and a second with S50% of 14 g, put forward by industry. In both cases, it was concluded that any monthly closure after February would not be beneficial to the industry. The magnitude of the benefit of closing the fishery in either January or February was sensitive to which mesh selectivity curve that was assumed, with greater benefit achieved when the smaller selectivity curve (i.e., S50% = 7 g) was assumed. Using the smaller selectivity (S50% = 7 g), the expected increase in catch value was 10–20% which equates to $200,000 to $400,000 annually, while the larger selectivity curve (S50% = 14 g) suggested catch value would be improved by 5–10%, or $100,000 to $200,000. The harvest strategy evaluations showed that greater benefits, in the order of 30–60% increases in the tiger annual catch value, could have been obtained by closing the fishery early in the year when annual effort levels were high (i.e., > 10,000 boat-days). In recent years, as effort levels have declined (i.e., ~4000 boat-days annually), expected benefits from such closures are more modest. In essence, temporal closures offer greater benefit when fishing mortality rates are high. A spatial analysis of Brown Tiger Prawn catch and effort was also undertaken to obtain a better understanding of the prawn population dynamics. This indicated that, to improve profitability of the fishery, fishers could consider closing the fishery in the period from June to October, which is already a period of low profitability. This would protect the Brown Tiger Prawn spawning stock, increase catch rates of all species in the lucrative pre-Christmas period (November–December), and provide fishers with time to do vessel maintenance, arrange markets for the next season’s harvest, and, if they wish, work at other jobs. The analysis found that the instantaneous rate of total mortality (Z) for the March–June period did not vary significantly over the last two decades. As the Brown Tiger Prawn population in Moreton Bay has clearly increased over this time period, an interesting conclusion is that the instantaneous rate of natural mortality (M) must have increased, suggesting that tiger prawn natural mortality may be density-dependent at this time of year. Mortality rates of tiger prawns for June–October were found to have decreased over the last two decades, which has probably had a positive effect on spawning stocks in the October–November spawning period. Abiotic effects on the prawns The influence of air temperature, rainfall, freshwater flow, the southern oscillation index (SOI) and lunar phase on the catch rates of the four main prawn species were investigated. The analyses were based on over 200,000 daily logbook catch records over 23 years (i.e., 1988–2010). Freshwater flow was more influential than rainfall and SOI, and of the various sources of flow, the Brisbane River has the greatest volume and influence on Moreton Bay prawn catches. A number of time-lags were also considered. Flow in the preceding month prior to catch (i.e., 30 days prior, Logflow1_30) and two months prior (31–60 days prior, Logflow31_60) had strong positive effects on Banana Prawn catch rates. Average air temperature in the preceding 4-6 months (Temp121_180) also had a large positive effect on Banana Prawn catch rates. Flow in the month immediately preceding catch (Logflow1_30) had a strong positive influence on Greasyback Prawn catch rates. Air temperature in the preceding two months prior to catch (Temp1_60) had a large positive effect on Brown Tiger Prawn catch rates. No obvious or marked effects were detected for Eastern King Prawns, although interestingly, catch rates declined with increasing air temperature 4–6 months prior to catch. As most Eastern King Prawn catches in Moreton Bay occur in October to December, the results suggest catch rates decline with increasing winter temperatures. In most cases, the prawn catch rates declined with the waxing lunar phase (high luminance/full moon), and increased with the waning moon (low luminance/new moon). The SOI explains little additional variation in prawn catch rates (~ <2%), although its influence was higher for Banana Prawns. Extrapolating findings of the analyses to long-term climate change effects should be interpreted with caution. That said, the results are consistent with likely increases in abundance in the region for the two tropical species, Banana Prawns and Brown Tiger Prawns, as coastal temperatures rise. Conversely, declines in abundance could be expected for the two temperate species, Greasyback and Eastern King Prawns. Corporate management structures An examination of alternative governance systems was requested by the industry at one of the early meetings, particularly systems that may give them greater autonomy in decision making as well as help improve the marketing of their product. Consequently, a review of alternative management systems was undertaken, with a particular focus on the potential for self-management of small fisheries (small in terms of number of participants) and corporate management. The review looks at systems that have been implemented or proposed for other small fisheries internationally, with a particular focus on self-management as well as the potential benefits and challenges for corporate management. This review also highlighted particular opportunities for the Moreton Bay prawn fishery. Corporate management differs from other co-management and even self-management arrangements in that ‘ownership’ of the fishery is devolved to a company in which fishers and government are shareholders. The company manages the fishery as well as coordinates marketing to ensure that the best prices are received and that the catch taken meets the demands of the market. Coordinated harvesting will also result in increased profits, which are returned to fishers in the form of dividends. Corporate management offers many of the potential benefits of an individual quota system without formally implementing such a system. A corporate management model offers an advantage over a self-management model in that it can coordinate both marketing and management to take advantage of this unique geographical advantage. For such a system to be successful, the fishery needs to be relatively small and self- contained. Small in this sense is in terms of number of operators. The Moreton Bay prawn fishery satisfies these key conditions for a successful self-management and potentially corporate management system. The fishery is small both in terms of number of participants and geography. Unlike other fisheries that have progressed down the self-management route, the key market for the product from the Moreton Bay fishery is right at its doorstep. Corporate management also presents a number of challenges. First, it will require changes in the way fishers operate. In particular, the decision on when to fish and what to catch will be taken away from the individual and decided by the collective. Problems will develop if individuals do not join the corporation but continue to fish and market their own product separately. While this may seem an attractive option to fishers who believe they can do better independently, this is likely to be just a short- term advantage with an overall long-run cost to themselves as well as the rest of the industry. There are also a number of other areas that need further consideration, particularly in relation to the allocation of shares, including who should be allocated shares (e.g. just boat owners or also some employed skippers). Similarly, how harvesting activity is to be allocated by the corporation to the fishers. These are largely issues that cannot be answered without substantial consultation with those likely to be affected, and these groups cannot give these issues serious consideration until the point at which they are likely to become a reality. Given the current structure and complexity of the fishery, it is unlikely that such a management structure will be feasible in the short term. However, the fishery is a prime candidate for such a model, and development of such a management structure in the future should be considered as an option for the longer term.